Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: August-September 2016

Aggregated Newspoll breakdowns find nothing too remarkable going on beneath the surface of the three polls it has published since the election.

The Australian has published the regular Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals, aggregating all the polling the organisation has conducted since the election – a smaller than usual amount, since the pollster took the better part of two months to resume post-election. The results suggest a bit of slippage for the Coalition since the election in South Australia, but essentially no change in the other four mainland states. This is an opportune moment for me to apologise for not having reactivated BludgerTrack over the past week as promised, but the availability of this new data means the delay is probably for the best. It will positively definitely happen later this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,633 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: August-September 2016”

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  2. kevin-one-seven @ #1497 Thursday, October 6, 2016 at 12:49 pm

    Justin Gleeson, so far as I can tell, has an absolutely unblemished reputation. He really is very, very highly respected. George has picked the absolutely wrong person to get into a fight over credibility.

    I can vaguely remember him doing the same in the past.
    The Head of the Human Rights Commission, I think it was.

    He really is quite dumb.

    If he wants to pick a credibility fight and have some chance of winning I suggest he takes on Malcolm Roberts.
    If he wants to pick a legal fight and have some chance of winning I suggest he takes on the Catholic Church and its defence of paedophile priests, but then again, against the mental might of Brandis, the Church would probably be able to defend the indefensible.

  3. The problem with picking the “worst performed” in any way shape or from, relates to how close/far away one is from the action. I would not have a clue is the worst performed Liberal Minister as all one can do is form an opinion as to who actually appears to be the worst performed. Then one runs into the problem of such a biggish field to chose from.
    From my observation Banraby Joyce would get my vote. He is supposedly a conviction politician but I feel the name Backdown Barney was a moniker which suited him. To me he appears a dud, promoted way beyond his competence. But then, as far as I actually know, he might run a really tight ship.
    Who can actually dig beyond the level of tripe dished out from Canberra which passes as ‘news’ to actually know what is going on?

  8. The Dream Team currently setting Australia alight.
    Turnbull
    Bishop
    Morrison
    Pyne
    Corman
    Ley
    Joyce
    Ciobo
    Dutton
    Brandis
    O’Dwyer
    Chester
    Frydenberg
    Hunt
    Canavan
    Payne
    Fifield
    Cash
    Porter Sinondinos
    Scullion
    Birmingham

  9. ‘All the (20,000 simulated) outcomes are spread across the same contiguous range; there is no “divergence”.’

    Maybe my bullshit detectors need re-calibration.
    I blame too much exposure to the ABC, and the fact that I almost failed Stats 101 at uni.

  10. A quick back of the envelope score out of 10 with the score primarily reflecting their achievement of ministerial responsibilities with the implementation of new policy, application of funding at ministerial direction, program reform and the application of moral suasion. I have tried to be as generous as possible.
    Turnbull 2
    Bishop 7
    Morrison 4
    Pyne 3
    Corman 5
    Ley 6
    Joyce 5
    Ciobo 2
    Dutton 5
    Brandis 3
    O’Dwyer 0
    Chester 0
    Frydenberg 0
    Hunt 0
    Canavan 0
    Payne 5
    Fifield 5
    Cash 3
    Porter Sinondinos 3
    Scullion 2
    Birmingham 0

  12. Just because Dutton is torturing a thousand or so people and has let in 30,000 illegal migrants and is letting through a flood of side arms and has failed to stop various pathogens from threatening, for example, the banana industry and the honey industry, and has turned Immigration into a sort of Boof’s paradise, does not mean that he has been totally unsuccessful as a minister.

  14. Ratsak

    To be fair to Dutton (and there’s not really much reason to be fair to him), but to be fair he is achieving pretty much what he’s been tasked to do. It might be a dirty job, but he’s the potato to do dirty jobs.

    I would agree. If you accept that the role of the Minister for Immigration in this government is to turn a blind eye to brutality and to stonewall any and all attempts to find out what is really going on, he is doing a reasonable job. The fact that he is the biggest moral and ethical vacuum on the Treasury benches is by the by.

    In terms of total incompetence and an inability to deliver the objectives of the Government, efficiently or otherwise, Brandis stands out as first among equals. He is, without doubt, the worst AG in my lifetime, having neither the legal nor the political nous for the job.

  15. Bishop has successfully slaughtered the foreign aid budget, as per policy. Bishop has a tempered and measured public personal when it comes to discussing matters of serious import. She is across her brief and she follows her bried.
    Her public performance in relation to the Ugly Australians in Malaysia was exemplary.
    I am not saying that she is perfect. After all 7/10 is not exactly a ringing endorsement.
    The megalopmaniacal Rudd, by way of contrast, was IMO worth about 5/10. All that potential wasted in the deserts of his mental condition.
    Credit where credit is due, IMO.

  16. Victorian Energy Minister Lily D’Ambrosio has accused her federal counterpart Josh Frydenberg of pulling a political stunt by calling an emergency meeting of ministers in the wake of the South Australian blackout, saying it had no meaningful agenda and suggesting it was unlikely to achieve anything.

    Federal and state energy ministers will meet in Melbourne on Friday to discuss the events that shut down the electricity grid across the state last Wednesday. Issues to be discussed include the strengthening of transmission poles and wires, the integration of renewable energy into the national grid and the rise of battery storage.

    Ms D’Ambrosio said there was desperation behind the scenes on Thursday as the federal government scrambled to put something significant behind the one-page agenda delivered to the states that morning.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/emergency-ministers-meeting-after-sa-blackout-a-political-stunt-victoria-20161006-grwk1z.html

  18. Doing a Uhlmann.
    Writing rubbish on a technical topic and then getting a steam shovel to dig the hole deeper; wider faster.
    May life be good; may the wandering windmills not knock your transmission towers down.

  20. BK

    Yep. They should employ more checkout staff, not use Police time at the tax payers expense because their business process is a failure.

  21. Ms Credlin opined that the Turnbull Government started the silly buggers on South Australia without a clear idea of where they might land.

  22. In ten years, the Budgie 9 will all be on the Liberal front bench.

    Hopefully seven years into a very long stint in Opposition.

  28. CTar1,
    Sorry.
    I forgot Malcolm’s cunning plan to be more Menzian amounted to putting the nation to sleep for 23 years again. It looks to be working. ; )

  29. This is a good piece by KKeanelly..

    There’s an old adage in politics: never waste a crisis. When severe storms caused a power blackout across South Australia last week, the Turnbull government bent mother nature to its will.

    But there’s another adage that Malcolm Turnbull and his energy minister, Josh Frydenberg, should remember: don’t win the battle only to lose the war.

    Last week Frydenberg showed what a shrewd politician he is. He won lots of battles. First, after the deputy prime minister, Barnaby Joyce, blamed renewable energy for causing the blackout, Frydenberg appeared sensible as he assured Australians that he knew it really was the 80,000 lightning strikes and 140km/h winds that caused the power to go out.

  31. People seem to be keen on giving the 9 halfwits in KL a collective name that will stick.
    How about “the Knicker Ockers”?

  33. I doubt humiliation would be a factor fo those 9 immatureAustralians.

    They’d likely exist in a small sheltered bubble of like-minded sycophants.

    A boorish culture to be ashamed of.

  34. boerwar @ #1565 Thursday, October 6, 2016 at 6:13 pm

    Bishop has successfully slaughtered the foreign aid budget, as per policy. Bishop has a tempered and measured public personal when it comes to discussing matters of serious import. She is across her brief and she follows her bried.
    Her public performance in relation to the Ugly Australians in Malaysia was exemplary.
    I am not saying that she is perfect. After all 7/10 is not exactly a ringing endorsement.
    The megalopmaniacal Rudd, by way of contrast, was IMO worth about 5/10. All that potential wasted in the deserts of his mental condition.
    Credit where credit is due, IMO.

    A fair and accurate rating of FM Bishop.

    However 5/10 is very much overly generous for the treasonous one.

  35. How about “the Knicker Ockers”?

    How about just dumb-assed douchebags?

    Serious cultural cringe. Australian yobbos will always find ways to embarrass the rest of us.

  36. However 5/10 is very much overly generous for the treasonous one.

    And speaking of embarrassment, how cringeworthy has his public campaign for the UNSG been? I mean seriously. Does he think these public petulant tantrums are going to resonate with anyone other than his rusted on core supporters, the vast majority of whom are ordinary Australian voters with no influence outside their own ballot box?

    You don’t see other former PMs behaving in such an unedifying manner. Not even Howard.

  42. Dave Donovan retweeted
    #TheProjectTV
    3h3 hours ago
    #TheProjectTV ‏@theprojecttv
    We speak to @markdreyfusQCMP about why he is calling for George Brandis to resign. #auspol #TheProjectTV

  43. BK:

    Only cause I’m in the market for bookshelves and that would be a fantastic offer. 😀

    Sorry, should’ve realised you were taking the mickey out of someone/something.

  48. Vic:

    I haven’t caught up with news – just got home from work and have sat down with a glass of wine. I just saw floor to ceiling ex parliament bookshelves and it pinged onto my radar in a big way.

  50. As per above link. Dreyfus says Brandis is now lying about lying. Lol!

    Labor said that Senator Brandis has misled the Parliament over the affair and should resign or be sacked.

    Shadow attorney-general Mark Dreyfus said Senator Brandis was now ‘”lying about lying”.

    The notes of the November 30 meeting taken by two of Senator Brandis’ staff mention the relevant parts of the legal framework governing the Solicitor-General’s work but at no point suggest Senator Brandis was planning to issue the legal direction.

    The notes also reflect the letter released by Mr Gleeson to the Senate inquiry requesting the November 30 meeting.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/staffers-notes-do-not-back-george-brandis-position-on-justin-gleeson-20161006-grwgna#ixzz4MIkOD7hw
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

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