Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The latest fortnightly result from Newspoll registers the best two-party result for Labor since Malcolm Turnbull became prime minister.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll, courtesy of The Australian, finds Labor opening up a 52-48 lead after a 50-50 result a fortnight ago, with the Coalition down three on the primary vote to 38%, Labor up one to 37%, and the Greens up one to 10%. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down two on approval to 32% and up two on disapproval to 55%, while Bill Shorten is up one to 36% and down one to 51%. However, preferred prime minister is little changed, with Turnbull’s lead shifting from 43-31 to 44-33.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Bit of movement in the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average, with the Coalition up two on the primary vote to 39%, Labor down one to 36%, the Greens down one to 9%, One Nation steady on 6% and the Nick Xenophon Team down to 3%. Despite the apparent move in the Coalition’s favour, Labor’s two-party lead remains at 52-48. Other findings:

• An occasional series of questions on leaders’ attributes reflects a slight deterioration in Malcolm Turnbull’s standing since it was last asked in May, with arrogant up five points, narrow-minded up four and visionary down five. Nearly every one of Bill Shorten’s 15 indicators are up slightly, positive and negative alike, which presumably reflects his higher profile after an election campaign. The biggest mover is “aggressive”, up six to a still modest 36%.

• A series of questions on “leader trust to handle issues” finds Bill Shorten favoured in almost every case, reflecting the fact that that issues identified are mostly on turf favourable to Labor. A curious is exception is “regulating the banking and finance sector”, on which Turnbull led 33% to 29%.

• The poll also finds strong support for voluntary euthanasia, which is supported by 68% “when a person has a disease that cannot be cured and is living in severe pain” and opposed by 13%.

• Strong opposition to liberalising of cross-media ownership laws was recorded, with 61% disapproving and 18% approving.

• Respondents were asked to evaluate the level of importance of five issues, which found climate change, a royal commission into the banking and finance industry and a treaty with indigenous Australians rated of high importance, and votes on same-sex marriage and a republic substantially less so.

• Fifty-eight per cent said they would support recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the constitution, with 15% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,470 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  3. Daretotread

    Clinton and Rudd’s role in Syria was truly shameful. WE supported Al Qaeda+ affiliates in Libya. WE even facilitated transfer of weapons from Libyan weapons dumps to Syria. Guess who got the weapons ?

    This for me made Hilary unfit for office. Sick.
    “video:Flashback 2011: Hillary Clinton Laughs About Killing Moammar Gaddafi: “We Came, We Saw, He Died!””
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2015/06/19/flashback_2011_hillary_clinton_laughs_about_killing_moammar_gaddafi_we_came_we_saw_he_died.html

  4. Poroti

    I sadly have to agree. I think that the MURDER of Gadaffi’s grandchildren was a war crime. it was a crime beyond wicked.

  5. DTT

    Now this will be mighty controversial so please consider it speculation ONLY, but such an outcome would probably have spared Jewish people the worst of the holocaust. It was of course only after they started to LOSE the war that the worst of the massacres occurred as food became scarcer and patience and tolerance more fragile. Life for Jewish people in Germany and indeed in the UK would of course have been intolerable, but probably migration to the USA would have been an acceptable alternative to Auschwitz. We will never know the answer, but nor can we blindly assume that going to war with Hitler actually saved many Jewish lives.

    DTT

    You clearly know very little about the Holocaust and the conduct of the Nazis in power from 1933 onwards. In particular, the Final Solution was determined at the Wannsee Conference in January 1942, well before the Battle of Stalingrad, which is seen by most historians to be the point where the war turned irretrievably against the Germans.

    On a purely logical basis, the idea that things got worse for the Jews under Nazi occupation as a response to the shrinking resources is just plain silly. It has always amazed me that the Nazis put so much effort, people and materiel into implementing the Holocaust and drawing that away from the war effort. This is not just a case of commandeering food and supplies for the war effort – as the Nazis did in regard to the people generally in the areas it occupied. The implementation of the Final Solution was actually a drain on resources that undermined the German war effort.

    The ramping up of the murders from 1942 onwards was a reflection that the Nazis, and particularly Hitler, did not regard the killing of Jews as collateral damage of its war effort; it was a central military objective of its war. And this is not just speculation; it is something that highly respected historians like Ian Kershaw have concluded.

    You are right that the world would have been a different place if history had turned differently at hinge moments. You are not right in implying that it would have been no worse, just different.

    By the way, Germany declared war on the USA after the USA declared war on Japan in the wake of Pearl Harbour, as a consequence of a treaty it had in place with Japan – although it did not necessarily have to. That almost certainly pre-empted a US declaration but it is important to be aware of historical fact.

  6. WarrenPeace

    😆 That’s all very well but did he have permission from the party’s RW to wear a) A matching pair , b) Select that particular pair ?

  7. warrenpeace @ #2201 Sunday, October 2, 2016 at 2:42 pm

    I hear Turbull had a very good start to the day. he got up and put on a pair of matching socks.

    Good on yer matey.
    Putting on socks is a big event at my household. The regimental dog (Abbee) thinks I want to go out and play with her. She (14 years) behaves like a little puppy leaping about and dashing hither and yon.
    I expect the same thing happens at the Turnbull household. Not at all sure who does the leaping about tho. 😛

  8. TPOF
    I do not pretend to have a detailed knowledge of the specifics of the WWII, but you point about the “final solution”being in 1942 is after the declaration of war with the USA. At this time the option for deporting Jewish people to the USA was effectively closed. Had Germany and the US not been at war it is more than likely that mass migration of many may have been an option. I cannot say for sure it would have happened but nor can you assume it would NOT. I think communists and socialists would have been exterminated under either scenario but I am less sure about others, especially children.

    My point is that circumstances change in a war and even minor events can change the outcome. “For the want of a nail my kingdom was lost.” Both the personalities of Churchill and Roosevelt were key to the final outcome of the war and if either had died or lost power we cannot know the outcome of the war.

  9. BW,

    Read the papers tomorrow, next week and next year. They will all record the Bulldogs winning yesterday’s Grand Final.

  11. Photos
    Likes
    Tweets
    Sky News Australia
    3m3 minutes ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    Evidence from @realDonaldTrump 1995 tax records implies he has paid no federal income tax in up to 18 years http://bit.ly/2djlaaI
    Embedded image

  12. 😆 Fropm the “Only in America (well not really) file……

    From NBC 2:
    A Fort Myers doctor says if you are a man thinking about voting for Hillary Clinton, you may need to have your testosterone checked.

    It’s a controversial commercial hitting Southwest Florida airwaves.

    The doctor says it’s a humorous way to promote his business and also join the political discussion. But some radio listeners aren’t laughing.

    “Most are not aware of the effect low T can have on your mental state. For instance your ability to focus and think clearly,” he said.

    http://www.informationliberation.com/?id=55584

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0AXyQlkXnyU

  13. New York: Donald Trump declared a $US916 million ($1.2 billion) loss on his 1995 income tax returns, a tax deduction so substantial it could have allowed him to legally avoid paying any federal income taxes for up to 18 years, records obtained by The New York Times show.

    The 1995 tax records, never before disclosed, reveal the extraordinary tax benefits that Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, derived from the financial wreckage he left behind in the early 1990s through mismanagement of three Atlantic City casinos, his ill-fated foray into the airline business and his ill-timed purchase of the Plaza Hotel in Manhattan.

  17. Victoria:

    I heard Trump’s excuse for that was akin to Kerry Packer’s when he fronted that Senate inquiry. Such arrogance.

  20. Malcolm Turnbull
    16 mins ·
    L’Shana Tova! A happy and sweet new year to the Jewish community here in Australia and all around the world. Lucy and I wish you all health and prosperity for the coming year.

    He’s so good with symbolic gestures, isn’t he? Not so good at the substantive stuff,

  21. They [the “Dogs”] know that they did not win the Flag fair and square and that their Flag is tainted.

    I find it extremely unlikely that they would believe that. Anyway, it’s not how you play the game, it’s winning or losing that counts. In elite sport as in politics, winning is everything.

  22. A classic line from Bill Maher over Trump’s sniffing during the debate.
    “He was born with a silver spoon in his nose!”

  23. confessions @ #2220 Sunday, October 2, 2016 at 3:53 pm

    Malcolm Turnbull
    16 mins ·
    L’Shana Tova! A happy and sweet new year to the Jewish community here in Australia and all around the world. Lucy and I wish you all health and prosperity for the coming year.

    He’s so good with symbolic gestures, isn’t he? Not so good at the substantive stuff,

    Look what happened just after he posted how easy the census was. I’m expecting the second holocaust to start any minute!

  24. Oh dear Josh Frydenberg has had to acknowledge that it wasn’t renewables that caused the electricity shut downs in South Australia.
    Throwing out the trash anyone!

  25. Trump’s campaign is imploding nicely. In the past week we’ve had:

    1. An embarrassing debate loss.
    2. Needless and repeated attacks against a former Miss Universe, including allegations of a sex tape that doesn’t seem to exist…
    3. …which led to the discovery of an actual porn video that Trump actually did appear in.
    4. Revelations that Trump has likely been paying zero federal income tax since 1995.
    5. Endorsements and/or disavowals from unlikely sources, like Arizona Republic and USA Today.

    Meanwhile the only negative “news” being reported on Clinton’s side appears to be that Bill made Obama impatient on Air Force One.

    I can’t wait to see all of this reflected in next week’s polling updates.

  27. MTBW

    Oh dear Josh Frydenberg has had to acknowledge that it wasn’t renewables that caused the electricity shut downs in South Australia.</blockquote.
    Don't tell me, he confessed that it was actually ALL Labor's fault ? 😆

  29. How ironic is it that someone on here complaining about bad umpiring calls leading to a “tainted premiership”, was guilty of awarding 21 extra points to the LNP because of Brexit?

    No-one is going to suffer because of what the umpires did (or didn’t do), whereas the nation suffers because a Tory loving octopus made a shocker of a call during the election campaign.

    (Yes, the above is tongue in cheek.)

    (Or is it?)

  32. The best thing about the Maher talk was the way he used standard Trumpisms… a lot of people are saying… a lot of people told me that…
    I do rather like the scenario where POTUS Trump does not take a Hot Line call from Putin at half past three in the morning because Trump is too busy tweeting slut-shame assaults on nobody Machado for about being fat in 1996.

  34. DG
    Bluey invites you to afternoon tea.
    BTW, did you see that May has just announced that she will announce Brexit legislation next year?

  36. Boers

    I’m a bit worried about you.

    Look, Geelong has won every GF fair and square. No ifs, no buts.

    Sydney Swans, on the other hand, have been gifted every bloody one of theirs.

    Didn’t hear a peep out of you about their “tainted” wins.

    Pull your head in.

  38. El Guapo
    The Hawks are going to spend the pre-season practising tunnel ball, doing throwing practice a la Dogs, and practice diving at their opponents lower legs a la Dogs.
    And the Hawks’ cheer squad is going to practice yelling out the free kick ratio on an ongoing basis.
    I note that the Dog’s coach was so ashamed of his GF medal that he gave it away.

  42. I’ve been out this morning, assembling with the other volunteers for the Campaign for Wanneroo. Several dozen recruits gathered in the Yellagonga Regional Park, alongside Lake Joondalup. We obliged the speakers with our attention and applause; and then we rewarded the bbq chefs by consuming their sausages. We have the makings of a great victory. There’s no doubt about that. Sabine Winton is a highly credible candidate – energetic, dedicated, well-respected in the community, full of purpose. The climb in Wanneroo will be steep. We need a swing of around 10%. But we will do this and more!!!

  45. Steve777

    DTT @2:31PM – short version: the consequences of military action are more unpredictable than anyone imagines.

    As von Moltke said way back when. “The tactical result of an engagement forms the base for new strategic decisions because victory or defeat in a battle changes the situation to such a degree that no human acumen is able to see beyond the first battle.”. Or as it was paraphrased “No plan survives contact with the enemy.”.

  46. Mental Health – A real issue impacting on our community
    “Bemused
    Sunday, October 2, 2016 at 1:30 pm
    …….’The common factor in all mentioned and most others? Severe mental illness.'”

    For the last eighteen months I have acted in a voluntary capacity as chaplain/counsellor for a small group of caring individuals who have formed an incorporated association and registered charity. Operating out of a regional centre in South East Queensland, the aim of this group is to provide a safe place/make a difference in the lives of the most vulnerable members of the community. They receive little or no government funding, and do the best they can by having raffles or other fund raising activities. Last night about half a dozen of them slept out in the local park to raise awareness of the plight of the homeless, as well as funds via sponsorships.

    Each week on a Monday they provide a “drop-in” centre for those who are on their own or just need to be part of community. Activities include card games, board games, videos and arts and crafts. The facilitators also provide lunch and dinner at minimal cost, according to what each can afford (we have a fully qualified chef who volunteers for us, so the meals are pretty “special”).

    On top of this our founder, a woman whose life story I wouldn’t wish on my worst enemy, herself struggling with serious mental and physical health issues, is on call 24/7 for anyone who needs emergency housing or support, although her resources are limited.

    I could never have learned what I have over the past eighteen months through any course of study or formal accreditation (although I do have qualifications in Psychology and Pastoral Care).

    Let me reassure you that the number of individuals impacted by untreated mental health issues or slip through the cracks, is most definitely at epidemic proportions. Indeed, if they were inflicted with a “physical” medical condition which was clearly obvious to an observer, we would be up in arms demanding the government do something. If not on humanitarian grounds, then for economic reasons. The cost to society is enormous.

    In my view there needs to be a ground swell of campaigning and/or lobbying of the politicians to increase funding for mental health. It has got to a stage where I am at a loss to discern how seriously ill a person needs to be in Queensland before Mental Health get involved. Recently one evening, I came across a young man I had met before, outside the local hospital, sobbing his heart out trying to get up the courage to present to the emergency ward. He was suicidal and clearly had engaged in self harm, as his arms were bleeding. He was on the phone to a friend from another town, between the two of us we managed to get him to present to the emergency department, as I walked with him to the counter. They were expecting him because his friend on the phone had rung through.

    Surely, one would think that his case would warrant at the very least overnight admission until he settled down, and ideally being transferred to the major centre (2 hours away), for more dedicated intervention. But no, his case was not “serious enough”, and he was discharged back onto the streets. That’s right, this young man was technically homeless because after Centrelink had deducted child support and other outstanding debts, he had about $150.00 per week to live on.

    I do not blame the staff at the hospital or even the Regional Mental Health Unit, there is only so much they can do with the little funding they are provided with.

    This needs to be taken up right to the Politicians. I get so cranky when the “Australian Christian Lobby” goes to town over plebiscites, same sex marriage, safe schools, or what other homophobic cause they have got their teeth into, when it seems they don’t give a damn about the most vulnerable and marginalized members of our community. I know where Jesus would be focusing his efforts, if he were here in Australia, spreading His gospel of peace and compassion and wouldn’t be chasing after those “evil homosexuals.”

    Sorry about the long post, but I have my dander up.

  47. Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel: Samuel Johnson
    Even if it’s surrounding yourself with, or covering yourself with flags.

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