The latest fortnightly Newspoll, courtesy of The Australian, finds Labor opening up a 52-48 lead after a 50-50 result a fortnight ago, with the Coalition down three on the primary vote to 38%, Labor up one to 37%, and the Greens up one to 10%. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down two on approval to 32% and up two on disapproval to 55%, while Bill Shorten is up one to 36% and down one to 51%. However, preferred prime minister is little changed, with Turnbull’s lead shifting from 43-31 to 44-33.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Bit of movement in the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average, with the Coalition up two on the primary vote to 39%, Labor down one to 36%, the Greens down one to 9%, One Nation steady on 6% and the Nick Xenophon Team down to 3%. Despite the apparent move in the Coalition’s favour, Labor’s two-party lead remains at 52-48. Other findings:
• An occasional series of questions on leaders’ attributes reflects a slight deterioration in Malcolm Turnbull’s standing since it was last asked in May, with arrogant up five points, narrow-minded up four and visionary down five. Nearly every one of Bill Shorten’s 15 indicators are up slightly, positive and negative alike, which presumably reflects his higher profile after an election campaign. The biggest mover is “aggressive”, up six to a still modest 36%.
• A series of questions on “leader trust to handle issues” finds Bill Shorten favoured in almost every case, reflecting the fact that that issues identified are mostly on turf favourable to Labor. A curious is exception is “regulating the banking and finance sector”, on which Turnbull led 33% to 29%.
• The poll also finds strong support for voluntary euthanasia, which is supported by 68% “when a person has a disease that cannot be cured and is living in severe pain” and opposed by 13%.
• Strong opposition to liberalising of cross-media ownership laws was recorded, with 61% disapproving and 18% approving.
• Respondents were asked to evaluate the level of importance of five issues, which found climate change, a royal commission into the banking and finance industry and a treaty with indigenous Australians rated of high importance, and votes on same-sex marriage and a republic substantially less so.
• Fifty-eight per cent said they would support recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the constitution, with 15% opposed.
Happy Anniversary Malcolm.
The timing of the DD election is looking like a masterstroke from Turnbull.
If they had delayed any longer they would have been just as f*&%ed as they were under Abbott.
Bastards!!! 🙁
Another legal triumph for George.
Surely there has never been a worse Attorney General in our nations history.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/26/australia-fails-in-attempt-to-block-timor-leste-maritime-boundary-case
Dastyari incident didnt cause much of a dent as I expected.
-23 is Turnbull’s worst netsat to date. He’s now lost 61 points in 10 months which is a Newspoll record, though McMahon lost 68 in 10 months according to old Morgan Gallups.
This is really just woeful polling for a freshly re-elected government. It seems like a case of almost immediate buyer’s remorse, as per Gillard’s government post 2010.
And 48 is on the generous side off those primaries so the 2PP was probably rounded up.
Amusing isn’t it? He’s an odious little creep….and not even a particularly skilled lawyer. Just the person really for the Libs make AG wot?
Well the mugs of the electorate were too soft and give Turnbull another chance.Surely they didnt expect him to change.
They dont call him FIZZA for nothing.
cupidstunt @ #3 Tuesday, September 27, 2016 at 1:01 am
I always thought that it was a stupid mistake for the Coalition to persist with Dastyari. All they did was remind the voters of how crooked all politicians were. The problem for them was that despite Dastyari being an Opposition senator, the public still blame the Government for low ethical standards.
The final point was how many in the government kept bashing Dastyari but started crab-walking at a rate of knots away from real donation reform, tossing out blatantly specious distinctions between their party machines accepting huge bucks from Chinese interests while banging on about a $1,600 payment on Dastyari’s behalf.
None of this is to excuse Dastyari – and, indeed, the voters didn’t – but the Government’s approach of over-egging the situation simply showed them up to be gross hypocrites.
cupidstunt @ #6 Tuesday, September 27, 2016 at 1:07 am
A few mugs – and a lot less than were prepared to support him only six months earlier, based on opinion polling at the time.
But surely that’s good news when viewed from any perspective other than the self-serving ‘Australia should get its way in all things’ one? Certainly there’s no ethical case to be made for a position which bullies Timor out of asserting sovereignty over territory that international law says it can have, all because of a 10-year-old agreement that Timor now wants to withdraw from (quite rightly, imo) due to spying.
I’d say the main failure of Brandis is that he challenged the case in the first place. That just makes us all look like selfish dicks.
TPOF
Never has a politican gave so much hope to an electorate and delivered so little.
That should be the headline when Turncoat eventually goes. The Ultimate Fizza.
a r @ #10 Tuesday, September 27, 2016 at 1:11 am
I applaud the court’s decision and your summary is spot on.
I remember being appalled at the time, Downer was at his sanctimonious worst.
It certainly highlighted the moral vacuum that existed in the Howard Government that continues to this day with Abbott/Turnbull.
Those numbers are just woeful for Turnbull.
What exactly is the end game, here? I can’t envision a circumstance where he can possibly claw his way out of the hole.
He’s got an agenda of next to nothing, his authority is completely non-existent, he’s got a flank of the party who loathe him and are baying for blood and he’s blown any political capital and the goodwill from the public that he did have to smithereens.
He might be politically hopeless, but he’s no dummy – surely he can see the writing on the wall?
Given his ego, surely he should be considering things like “legacy”, and at the moment, he has nothing, bar a disastrous election result, a reputation for dithering, and zero action on the issues that (pre-PM) he was known for.
Why not grow a pair, stand up to the right flank and just start actually leading?
If it did end in a spill attempt and his demise (not convinced it would, personally – a common sense approach to things like the gross hypocrisy of this farcical plebiscite could actually be a winner), it’d be better to be remembered as being principled (even if it was a last ditch effort), than a meek, pathetic puppet of the right.
“This is really just woeful polling for a freshly re-elected government. It seems like a case of almost immediate buyer’s remorse, as per Gillard’s government post 2010.”
Turnbull taking the lead in 2PP was listed as 8 out of 9 future possible outcomes in a recent online survey
It doesn’t look to me that the L/NP can hang on to government for a full term.
Turnbull plainly sinking fast and none of the prospective replacements are likely to garner across the board support even within the Liberal Party Room let alone the L/NP Joint Party Room. Numbers must be being counted but any overt activity will drive their 2PP numbers lower.
Even some defections to the cross bench from the L/NP wouldn’t resolve the situation as they would most likely vote with the L/NP on confidence/budget matters. They’d just frustrate the Government on other things.
Uncharted waters for however long this Parliament survives with bugger all achieved seems to be what we are going to have.
Meanwhile in the Land of the Free it’s just another unremarkable day –
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-37469757
Turnbull, the worst Australian PM since…………………………………………………. Abbott.
Good Morning
I see that despite the media doing Dastyari evil turd polishing the public saw just bad politics and were more interested in the fact the LNP were doing their best to block donation reform.
Given the media coverage thats the only takeout I see from this newspoll. The public hates snouts in the trough.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Michael Pascoe tells us to shop around for better interest rates ahead of the Joint Committee hearing.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/who-the-banks-are-really-screwing-on-interest-rates-20160925-gro9i0.html
Is the housing market cooling a bit?
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/housing-market-really-is-cooling-hsbc-says-20160926-gropf7.html
Tony Jones homed in on this remark from Simon Birmingham on QandA last night.
http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/qa-simon-birmingham-says-some-private-schools-overfunded-20160926-grp1ji.html
This SMH editorial says it’s time to go for the “full Gonski”.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/time-to-go-the-full-gonski-for-childrens-sake-20160925-groahj.html
Jenny Macklin takes aim at Christian Porter over the government’s planned welfare cuts.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/27/labors-jenny-macklin-accuses-coalition-of-planning-welfare-cuts
Meanwhile Michael West tells us how PwC has given bludgers a lesson in corporate welfare.
http://www.michaelwest.com.au/pwc-gives-bludgers-a-lesson-in-corporate-welfare/
According to Ken Davidson the sale of the Port of Melbourne will drive prices sky high.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/port-sale-will-send-prices-through-the-roof-20160926-grodsh.html
Trump’s debate game plan.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/us-presidential-election-2016-four-tactics-donald-trump-uses-in-debates-20160926-grp1h8.html
More revealing evidence comes out in the Dick Smith collapse court hearing.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/managerial-militia-in-dick-smith-war-zone-20160926-groxf3.html
This analyst reckons Apple stock is “boring” (good) and Tesla is “shot” (bad).
http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/apple-is-now-boring-enough-to-buy-but-tesla-is-doomed-20160926-grormn.html
Section 2 . . .
It looks like Senator Bob day, a highly principled Christian man, has been a bit naughty. Google.
/national-affairs/senator-bob-days-empire-hit-by-delays-payment-claims/news-story/075453336f98927042b18168fe737da4
Trumps goes well in the debate “pre-game” when he calls the moderator a Democrat when he’s actually a registered Republican.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/first-presidential-debate-a-test-for-lester-holt-and-nbc-20160922-grmn0b.html
Three federal cross bench politicians are asking for whistle-blowers from the pokies indstry to come forward.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pokieleaks-campaign-calls-for-gambling-industry-secrets-20160926-groino.html
It’s not just crime that’s causing NSW’s burgeoning prison population writes Michaela Whitbourn.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/court-delays-and-bail-laws-drive-increase-in-prisoner-population-20160926-groe2t.html
More trouble for Baird over the forced council mergers.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/councils-push-for-flawed-merger-inquiries-to-start-from-the-beginning-20160926-groicg.html
The three big issues facing Bill Morrow and the NBN. Google.
/brand/chanticleer/the-three-big-challenges-facing-nbn-ceo-bill-morrow-20160926-grovvs
Five ways the plebiscite money could be spent on health.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/five-ways-that-the-160m-same-sex-plebiscite-could-be-spent-in-health-20160922-grm14u.html
Steve Irons, you naughty boy!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-government-mp-steve-irons-also-charged-taxpayers-to-fly-wife-home-after-wedding-20160926-groqn9.html
Want to know what makes George Christensen tick? Then read this.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/26/george-christensen-on-poverty-priesthood-and-a-flirtation-with-one-nation
Another George Brandis “success”.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australia-loses-attempt-to-knock-out-east-timors-maritime-boundary-complaint-20160926-grooik.html
With the plebiscite talks reaching a dead end and the latest NewsPoll surely it’s time for Turnbull to show some mettle and take on the poisonous right wing rump.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/marriage-plebiscite-talks-hit-dead-end-as-turnbull-government-and-labor-play-the-blame-game-20160926-groioo.html
Section 3 . . .
Michelle Grattan says that the SSM manoeuvring has now become a charade.
https://theconversation.com/same-sex-marriage-manoeuvring-has-become-a-charade-66074
Paul Bongiorno writes that the “better angels” have gone missing in the SSM debate.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2016/09/26/marriage-equality-farce/
Andrew Street wonders what Pauline Hanson will do when Australia finally gets marriage equality.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/can-we-expect-pauline-hanson-to-move-when-australia-has-samesex-marriage-20160926-grocj0.html
Why we need to tackle bigotry.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/26/we-cant-build-a-progressive-political-agenda-without-tackling-bigotry
Stephen Koukoulas says the Turnbull government is taking an unnecessary risk in issuing 30-year bonds.
http://thekouk.com/item/407-why-the-turnbull-government-s-plan-to-issue-30-year-bonds-is-an-unnecessary-risk.html
Is Aldi “leeching” off the big supermarkets?
http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/your-budget/2016/09/26/aldi-parasite/
Medibank has been piloting a program to keep people out of hospital. Looks promising. Google.
/business/health/hospitals-and-gps/why-medibank-spends-30m-a-year-on-taxis-handrails-and-talking-scales-20160926-groo5u
Even though he’s retired Steven Conroy will not give up on the fight for parliamentary privilege over the seized NBN documents.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/nbn-raids-stephen-conroy-to-maintain-document-privilege-fight-in-retirement-20160926-gron7g.html
Have we reached “peak secrecy”?
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/have-we-reached-peak-secrecy-20160926-grodbv.html
The New York Times tells its readers why Trump should become President.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-donald-trump-should-not-be-president-20160926-grojfl.html
The vital role of fact checking in today’s presidential debate.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/26/debate-fact-checking-donald-trump-lester-holt
Section 4 . . . with Cartoon Corner
Another multiple shooting in gun-loving America.
http://www.theage.com.au/world/houston-shooting-six-people-injured-some-seriously-at-us-mall-20160926-grp23p.html
Ron Tandberg at Steve Irons’ wedding.
Beautiful work from David Rowe on the struggle to advance SSM legislation.
Cathy Wilcox with the Trump lie detector for today’s debate.
Ron Tandberg and policy options.
Peter Broelman on Operation Sovereign Bribing.
Mark Knight takes us into the ring for the Presidential debate.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/80186928b56e1aaf13c75dc455972f5b?width=1024
Jon Kudelka at the Brandis/Dreyfus SSM meeting.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/c9f582eb437918ca3894d50427a01185
BK
Assuming of course that the Coalition’s rump is the ‘poisonous right wing’ rather than Truffles himself .
Dreyfus on 24 now
One thing that Malcolm does have going for him is Nicky Savva, she will always find goodness in all that he does.
Of course, you could ad lots of other ‘journalists’ from Fairfax & NewsCorp to her crew.
I think Hillary Clinton’s campaign has made its first mistake in the debate. They won the toss and Clinton is going to take the first question.
‘The timing of the DD election is looking like a masterstroke from Turnbull.
If they had delayed any longer they would have been just as f*&%ed as they were under Abbott.’
As I said at the time, the Greens accepted the Trojan horse — and we got another X years of Liberal government.
‘One thing that Malcolm does have going for him is Nicky Savva, she will always find goodness in all that he does.
Of course, you could ad lots of other ‘journalists’ from Fairfax & NewsCorp to her crew.’
Don’t forget the ABC!
I remember back in the days of Rudd/Gillard, ABC news had a seeming love affair with Newspoll, relentlessly giving it top billing when it was bad for Labor.
Nowadays the love affair has turned sour, with the briefest of mentions just before the sport. Did I detect a tone of regret in the newsreader’s voice?
Guytaur
I know nothing about debating, but I tend to agree with you. The Donald will riff off Hillary’s answers and “Trump” them with lies.
Zoomster.
Don’t blame the Greens for the DD. Turnbull was going to do the DD with or without Senate Reform. Have no doubt about that.
Anyone surprised to learn he now has a nice little earner working for the banksters ? Thought not.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/financial-services/paul-howes-blasts-labors-call-for-banking-inquiry/news-story/f4388297d8a34ab83d7b48253bb4a1dc
I had a feeling in my waters a couple of Newspolls ago after the election that the people were deciding who they want for their next Prime Minister. Note I say ‘next PM’. This result tends to confirm that, absent any major stuff-ups by the Labor team between now and when the next election is held, and there is always the possibility of that, to be sure, we are looking at a disciplined ALP going over to the government benches and Bill as our next PM.
The Senate should favour him too, with Lambie, Hinch, The Greens and NXT more inclined to vote with Labor than against. The PHONics, Day and Leyonhjelm should be out the door mostly.
In fact, I’d go so far as to say that the Coalition’s vote is suffering because they have been seen to have too readily jumped into bed with Pauline and the Crazies.
She may have got half a million votes, but we are a nation of 24 million people, and a lot more people didn’t vote for her lot than did.
So Malcolm is suffering because he can’t control the RWNJs in his own party and the Crazy Right Wing Nut Jobs in the Senate.
I guess that’s the only thing I can thank The Greens for in doing a deal with Malcolm to change the Senate voting rules-it has shown us this time what is possible and likely shocked the electorate into coming back to the true ‘Sensible Centre’ of politics next time. The ALP.
After watching the first five minutes of last night’s 4 Corners “Frat Boys” program I have come to the conclusion that it should have been titled “Arsehole School”.
Unusual to see the Press pushing facts. Birmingham getting what he deserves:
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/time-to-go-the-full-gonski-for-childrens-sake-20160925-groahj.html
Morning all
I didnt expect this newspoll result!
Despite my determination NOT to continue reading Nikki Savva’s book, I do take a peek every now and again, reading a few pages until I get sick of it.
Savva sees herself as a pivotal player in the vast social soap opera that is Liberal politics. She tells us how she punctuates the inner workings of the secret circle surrounding the PM’s office with pithy texts and brief phone calls to or from important players. Whatever “it” is hasn’t happened until a Savva message on the matter has been sent or received by someone rooly, rooly important, a Savva article has been written in The Australian setting the scene, or a Savva comment has been made on Insiders (God, how she must love being an official “insider”).
In truth, she’s a pimple on a pumpkin, very good at self-promotion. She writes in an obscure publication that mostly keeps to itself and its own, like one of those poor buggers you see talking animatedly to themselves on CBD street corners. Imagine a gaggle of them, just finished brekkie at the Matt Talbot, ready for a new day arguing with themselves, and there you have The Australian. The ABC is just about the only organization that takes any notice of the deluded few over at Holt St.
Nikki Savva and Peta Credlin don’t get on. They probably hate each other. Nikki likes Turnbull (and she reminds him of this every time she affectionately calls him “Malcolm”). Nikki is “into” the social scene around the PM’s office. Pad those few threadbare notions out into a book of 200 or so pages and there you have The Road To Ruin.
Cat
With the Senate reform we got a more progressive parliament overall. The LNP has been catering to the RW for ages now. As you say its now out in the open and voters see it despite the media doing its best to cover it up.
I also think the Murdoch media has made itself irrelevant with publishing Bill Leak style cartoons and waving the flag for the right wing. They jumped the shark and lost touch with the fact most Australians really do want a fair go not the unfair go that this government is pursuing with the ra ra cheers by the Murdoch press.
Brandis’ demeanour was weird yesterday. Wonder if it had more to do with the Timor Leste matter than the plebiscite talks
One grows a thick skin, doesn’t one? You get used to non-movement, and just as you thought it might be safe to put the good vase back on the mantlepiece, another aftershock happens.
It’s like being in another room listening to someone struggling to get a piano down the front stairs. Nothing happens for a little while and then there’s a “Whoomp!” that shakes the house: another step negotiated in the inexorable descent. They’ll never get the thing back up again, so there’s only one way to go.
BB
I could be mistaken, but the primary vote for the coalition in this poll is lower han when Aboott was dumped as PM
If anyone has exploded the myth of the Great Leader, triumphing over impossible odds, it’s Malcolm Turnbull. Turns out the odds really were impossible, after all. So much for “PM for Life”. He’ll be lucky to survive another 6 months.
Nor can I. If, as you said his govt had some kind of agenda it might be a different story, but they are just drifting with clearly no vision, no policies that they can sell to the electorate, and not even parliament sitting!
BB,
All done by the Greek furniture removalist Con Descending.
Bill Maher will be live tweeting during the presidential debate.
https://twitter.com/billmaher
Vic,
I could be mistaken, but the primary vote for the coalition in this poll is lower than when Abbott was dumped as PM
You’re not mistaken.
Also, this is the first actual losing Newspoll for Malcolm, isn’t it? Only 29 to go! : )
Tut tut ye doubters of Mal the Magnificent. Our MSM political experts know better. Was this really only 10 short months ago ? 😀
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-malcolm-turnbull-will-be-our-longestserving-pm-since-robert-menzies-20151125-gl7dy2.html
What exactly is the end game, here?
Well they are flagging IR legislation, most likely using the CFA dispute as cover for some Union-busting moves and WorkChoices 2.0.
That should go well for them.
bk @ #33 Tuesday, September 27, 2016 at 7:41 am
You do like to punish yourself. I think you deserve time off for good behaviour. 🙂
Poor Elizabeth Farrely. She really DID pile it on, didn’t she?
Mind you, her fanmail wasn’t too far short of the love letters written by professional political commentators at the time.
And, to her credit, she has since recanted somewhat, while the pros just keep on shifting the goalposts.
Preferred Prime Minister polling –
This question in the polling seems to show there are still people who like the ‘sound’ of Turnbull more than Shorten.
However the 2PP and Primary polling are –
This says to me that Labor are gaining as a unified team with coherent ideas.
In the current situation a ‘star’ leader is not required. No need for a ‘one man band’ because Labor has the heft in the ranks.
The deceptive behaviour of the Government on Gonski and the Plebiscite on SSM are attracting more interest from the generally disengaged voters.