The latest fortnightly Newspoll, courtesy of The Australian, finds Labor opening up a 52-48 lead after a 50-50 result a fortnight ago, with the Coalition down three on the primary vote to 38%, Labor up one to 37%, and the Greens up one to 10%. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down two on approval to 32% and up two on disapproval to 55%, while Bill Shorten is up one to 36% and down one to 51%. However, preferred prime minister is little changed, with Turnbull’s lead shifting from 43-31 to 44-33.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Bit of movement in the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average, with the Coalition up two on the primary vote to 39%, Labor down one to 36%, the Greens down one to 9%, One Nation steady on 6% and the Nick Xenophon Team down to 3%. Despite the apparent move in the Coalition’s favour, Labor’s two-party lead remains at 52-48. Other findings:
• An occasional series of questions on leaders’ attributes reflects a slight deterioration in Malcolm Turnbull’s standing since it was last asked in May, with arrogant up five points, narrow-minded up four and visionary down five. Nearly every one of Bill Shorten’s 15 indicators are up slightly, positive and negative alike, which presumably reflects his higher profile after an election campaign. The biggest mover is “aggressive”, up six to a still modest 36%.
• A series of questions on “leader trust to handle issues” finds Bill Shorten favoured in almost every case, reflecting the fact that that issues identified are mostly on turf favourable to Labor. A curious is exception is “regulating the banking and finance sector”, on which Turnbull led 33% to 29%.
• The poll also finds strong support for voluntary euthanasia, which is supported by 68% “when a person has a disease that cannot be cured and is living in severe pain” and opposed by 13%.
• Strong opposition to liberalising of cross-media ownership laws was recorded, with 61% disapproving and 18% approving.
• Respondents were asked to evaluate the level of importance of five issues, which found climate change, a royal commission into the banking and finance industry and a treaty with indigenous Australians rated of high importance, and votes on same-sex marriage and a republic substantially less so.
• Fifty-eight per cent said they would support recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the constitution, with 15% opposed.
Oh… why not pile it on?
CT
Yes the Plebiscite and Gonski have cut through the press gallery spin.
I expect the Medicare issue is doing the same as people visit the doctor and spread the news around friends and relatives that yes they are being charged for tests and visits they were getting “free” before.
Bushfire:
That’s like something you’d expect from Annabell Crabbe!
BB
It is up there with the efforts of Greg Sheridan writing about Tony Abbott.
Poroti – From the Nov 2015 article you posted.
😆
Gt
Yep. The Government, of course, says it’s not changing Medicare.
The co-payment proposal for GP visits, changes to the PBS arrangements and upfront charges for blood tests are ‘technically’ not part of Medicare.
However the general public equate ‘Medicare’ as the overall health system.
Governments that try to cut Health and Education at a time of higher unemployment are on a loser.
Essential has been vindicated.
C@t
The agenda is definitely IR and union busting under the guise of the Cfa and Ufu dispute here in Victoria. Some Bludgers may think this is a state Vic problem, but the feds are up to the necks in it. i would argue that my namesake state is where the feds know in order to finally destroy whatever union power is left, this is where they need to focus
Farcing over:
I have no faith that Labor will get up an SSM Bill when it’s next in Government. Just ask Julia Gillard. Labor Right is just playing an excellent dance partner to the Liberal Right and canning the only way towards SSM this side of twenty years.
VIC
The UFU has done nothing but tear the CFA apart. Not over pay, not over conditions, no. There is no complaint over the 19% pay rise. It’s about control of a volunteer organisation and its a disgrace. The bloody UFU is trying the same shit in the ACT as well now.
It appears that playing the peacock on the International stage did nothing for Miraculous Mal’s public image. Who’d a thunk it!
The MSM spent all of last week lauding his performance – methinks the electorate is now more in tune with political reality than the media.
rummel
Two words. Fiskville. Hazelwood
rummel @ #60 Tuesday, September 27, 2016 at 8:43 am
Did you know that it was official Labor policy, determined at the last National Conference, to bind Labor MPs and Senators to support Marriage Equality from the middle of 2019?
The bullying by the UFU and the Government is astounding!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-26/stress-not-illness-led-to-resignation-of-mfb-boss-wife-says/7877596
TPOF
And Labor also have quoters on female representation. We know how well that is adhered too.
Why do they quote female voters Rummel?
Sorry Jen, on the iPhone.
TPOF
I’ve forgotten why ‘middle of 2019’ was chosen?
Onya Pauline. Encourage those knuckle dragging Monkey Podders 😆
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/one-nation-leader-pauline-hanson-backs-coalition-plan-to-stop-school-leavers-getting-dole-for-a-month/news-story/75728f7b6169d16e6c059f803be95579
Poroti
Pauline must be convinced there is a plethora of jobs in fish shops available for those who roolly want to work.
A Conroy boost for Labor?
I hereby acknowledge that I had thought that DastyariGate would mean, at best, BAU Newspoll.
wRONg.
Has the fall from favour of Baird bled into fed polling?
Haha, Rummel – I love predictive text and what it does to change meaning … my hubby thinks I have an unnatural fascination with ‘literals’
😆
Rummel @ 8.43am
I call rubbish on your “20 years till SSM” prediction.
The biggest con of the year so far (which you fall for) is the proposition “no plebiscite equals no SSM for yonks”.
This is all hypabowl.
Unlike the Republic, which lost momentum after defeat, SSM is an issue directly affecting LGBTIQs, their friends, their nuclear families, their extended families, their neighbours, their workmates i.e. nearly the whole population. It won’t go away like the Republic.
Once the plebiscite is formally shafted, the dust on it will settle quickly (a la the Dastyari issue)and it will be gone.
Then the pressure will re-emerge for the alternative.
And who knows …… just like Fred Nile wields great power here, the spineless Waffler might well agree to support a SSM vote in the House as a trade for some other legislative cooperation from crossbencher(s).
Make no bones …… he will do that if self interest circumstances arise.
Lizzie
She’s speaking to her ‘planet talkback radio’ demographic. A planet where jobs are a plenty if only ‘the young people of today’ weren’t such a lazy bunch of so and sos. The planet where those on the dole live a life of luxury.
Boerwar – I’m thinking the accumulated effects of WA, Baird, the disingenuousness of Mal on refugees OS, and the general feeling that the Libs are now proving the worst about themselves on things like Gonski/SSM are beginning to add up.
This buyers’ remorse thing can creep up suddenly when a govt gets cocky about its so-called mandate and begins reneging on what the public expects.
FWIW
Perhaps what is killing Turnbull is that people have figured out that he is delivering the Delcon default policy on every little thing: real cuts to public education; real cuts to public health; real cuts to social services; reactionary social policies.
People did not like this stuff when it was presented in the 2014 Budget and they do not like it now.
Hanson was on AM this morning spouting her nonsense, all of which went totally unchallenged by the interviewer.
Meanwhile Newspoll makes an appearance on SMH online, but is totally unimportant as far as ABC online is concerned.
Q. How do the Liberals spell ‘Gonski’?
A. Goneski.
‘Has the fall from favour of Baird bled into fed polling?’
Good question. There is a certain synergy there.
rummel @ #66 Tuesday, September 27, 2016 at 8:58 am
A hell of a lot closer than the vague aspirational goals that the Liberals have. Have you counted the numbers after the last election?
Happy with my earlier bet on Malcolm getting the axe in the last sitting week of the year.
I was wrong in that I didn’t foresee just how much advantage Malcolm would receive from not actually having to be the government for 8 weeks, but now he’s back on the job normal transmission has resumed. The guy’s just fucking hopeless and leading a mob of loons that mostly hate him.
Surely the only reelected government that hasn’t won a single poll since the election. And that’s not going to change any time soon.
And as for Matt’s question on when Turnbull will just accept he has to grow a pair or his ‘legacy’ will just be an embarrassment (because he’s not an idiot right?).
Ummm. He is an idiot. It’s the same mistake the media and all the heart flutterers made and some continue to make. This assumption that he’s roolly roolly smart and so he will obviously do a good job. It’s wrong and is proven wrong daily. He may have arrogance to spare and the drive of an obsessive. He may be able to charm when he tries or fears the opponent is a bit too equally matched to try his usually bullying on. He may even be widely read and have a large vocabulary. He certainly has some ability to make money, although where he’d be without the very large head start he got over us mere mortals is debatable.
But smart? Nah. He’s a knucklehead. A knucklehead that thinks he’s a genius. He simply hasn’t the first idea how to do his job but it wouldn’t occur to him that he’s doing it badly. He’ll be blaming everyone and everything other than his own hopelessness on the polls, but will never doubt his ‘genius’ will see him find a way. Turnbull will be the only one in the country surprised when ScoMo or whoever it is that gets the numbers together comes to him to tell him the challenge is on. There never will be that recognition from Turnbull that he has to stop dying on his knees because he KNOWS everything he does is a masterstroke. He’ll go to his grave bitter and twisted at all those that have ‘done him wrong’ without ever even dreaming he was the author of his own tragicomedy all along.
I for one will enjoy the laughs.
So Newspoll has finally caught up to Essential. Well, well. Does this mean Labor will be 53 or 54 in today’s Essential?
Adrian
In pre PM Abbott days listening to RN on the way to work I found that a Newspoll and all it’s possible implications were No.1,2 and 3 most important political items to discuss for Fran and co.
Boerwar
Liberal types and the spelling of the plural of ‘school’
https://twitter.com/DrCraigEmerson/status/780535021492764672/photo/1
ctar1 @ #69 Tuesday, September 27, 2016 at 9:03 am
I think it was because it was the other side of what was at the time the next election cycle. It recognised that that there were still some Labor MPs and Senators who had strong positions on opposing ME (not just Joe Bullock) and gave them time to either decide whether they would rather continue to hold a seat in Parliament or stick to their position. It was also based on the latest date for existing Senators’ terms to expire (now overtaken by the DD).
All in all an excellent compromise.
Yes, Poroti, such a fall from grace, and I can’t imagine why!
CUPIDSTUNT – All that Dastyari rubbish just gets filtered out by votes, as does the day to do yo-yoing. They’ve got one big question: is this govt doing anything? The resounding answer is nope. They expected Super Mal. They’ve got a totally useless dud. That’s why SSM hurts him. London to a brick the next election will be about the GST as Turnbull tries to change the view he’s a lame-duck loser.
TPOH
Tks. That explains it neatly.
Yes SSM (the issue that nobody cares about apparently) is damaging Mal the Magnificent mainly because it is such a potent symbol of his political impotence.
You’ve only got to look at Malcolm – he looks whipped. I think that the election was an immense physical strain he still hasn’t recovered from. He thinks that being PM is all that matters. He doesn’t have the strength or guts to take a stand on anything. He’s gonna die like a cur rather than a lion.
Absolutely pitiful interview of Bill Morrow by Tony Boyd in the AFR. Morrow found the only journo in Australia who wouldn’t ask him why he was building a s… network. Hey, Tony, he didn’t let you interview him because he thought you were good.
It has occurred to me that ONE reason for Conroy’s departure was so as NOT to be caught up in the SSM debate. Certainly not the ONLY reason but a contributor.
Correction. The next next election will be SCO-MO as PM promoting a GST. Sco-Mo’s gonna step forward soon as the man with the plan who can get the govt back on track.
“One thing that Malcolm does have going for him is Nicky Savva, she will always find goodness in all that he does.
Of course, you could ad lots of other ‘journalists’ from Fairfax & NewsCorp to her crew.”
Don’t forget to add the entire ABC to that, as well.
‘Absolutely pitiful interview of Bill Morrow by Tony Boyd in the AFR. Morrow found the only journo in Australia who wouldn’t ask him why he was building a s… network.’
Don’t forget about Michael Brissenden.
ratsak
#83 Tuesday, September 27, 2016 at 9:17 am
I love your exposition.
We should continue to be grateful to our dear beloved leader Mr. Malcolm Bligh Turnbull. He will, in time, be acknowledged as a shining light on the hill in his devotion to the Labor cause. 🙂
One can only wonder at what Bob Ellis would have made of the government being led from opposition.
I understand from my sources (Abbee the dog) that Mr. Turnbull is planning on a new career as a county singer. He has been heard practising his three chord guitar work and singing “Release me” in a sincere and mournful way.
Tony is a fan of Hanson? He never showed good judgement.
Speaking of country songs, some of the lyrics of The Captain seem particularly apt for Captain Mal.
Now the Captain called me to his bed
He fumbled for my hand
“Take these silver bars,” he said
“I’m giving you command.”
“Command of what, there’s no one here
There’s only you and me —
All the rest are dead or in retreat
Or with the enemy.”
“Complain, complain, that’s all you’ve done
Ever since we lost
If it’s not the Crucifixion
Then it’s the Holocaust.”
“May Christ have mercy on your soul
For making such a joke
Amid these hearts that burn like coal
And the flesh that rose like smoke.”
“I know that you have suffered, lad,
But suffer this awhile:
Whatever makes a soldier sad
Will make a killer smile.”
“I’m leaving, Captain, I must go
There’s blood upon your hand
But tell me, Captain, if you know
Of a decent place to stand.”
“There is no decent place to stand
In a massacre;
But if a woman take your hand
Go and stand with her.”
“I left a wife in Tennessee
And a baby in Saigon —
I risked my life, but not to hear
Some country-western song.”
“Ah but if you cannot raise your love
To a very high degree,
Then you’re just the man I’ve been thinking of —
So come and stand with me.”
“Your standing days are done,” I cried,
“You’ll rally me no more.
I don’t even know what side
We fought on, or what for.”
“I’m on the side that’s always lost
Against the side of Heaven
I’m on the side of Snake-eyes tossed
Against the side of Seven.
And I’ve read the Bill of Human Rights
And some of it was true
But there wasn’t any burden left
So I’m laying it on you.”
Now the Captain he was dying
But the Captain wasn’t hurt
The silver bars were in my hand
I pinned them to my shirt.