Presidential election minus six weeks

On the eve of the first debate, presidential poll aggregation records Donald Trump all but closing the gap through a steady upward trend going back to the early August.

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump square off for the first presidential election debate this morning our time, so it seems an opportune moment for another run of my national polling tracker. The recent trend is very clear, but Clinton retains a lead of 46.0% to 45.0%. This was done using the polling data aggregated at Huffington Post, by calculating bias adjustments, applying crude weightings to pollsters based on experience and performance, determining an “others” trend from those polls that published results for other candidates, and then determining trends for the major candidates’ shares of the non-others vote.


Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

51 comments on “Presidential election minus six weeks”

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  1. Is the Trump candidacy unravelling? These latest attacks on Ms Machado are as peurile as they are vicious. Why would anyone bang on about someone with whom they might have had a difficult working relationship 20 years ago criticises them ?

    A very little man, but a very dangerous one to let loose with the power of the US Presidency. In a contest between Donald Trump and Someone Else, Someone Else would get my vote pretty much any time, be they Hillary Clinton, George W Bush or Donald Duck.

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