Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The latest fortnightly result from Newspoll registers the best two-party result for Labor since Malcolm Turnbull became prime minister.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll, courtesy of The Australian, finds Labor opening up a 52-48 lead after a 50-50 result a fortnight ago, with the Coalition down three on the primary vote to 38%, Labor up one to 37%, and the Greens up one to 10%. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down two on approval to 32% and up two on disapproval to 55%, while Bill Shorten is up one to 36% and down one to 51%. However, preferred prime minister is little changed, with Turnbull’s lead shifting from 43-31 to 44-33.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Bit of movement in the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average, with the Coalition up two on the primary vote to 39%, Labor down one to 36%, the Greens down one to 9%, One Nation steady on 6% and the Nick Xenophon Team down to 3%. Despite the apparent move in the Coalition’s favour, Labor’s two-party lead remains at 52-48. Other findings:

• An occasional series of questions on leaders’ attributes reflects a slight deterioration in Malcolm Turnbull’s standing since it was last asked in May, with arrogant up five points, narrow-minded up four and visionary down five. Nearly every one of Bill Shorten’s 15 indicators are up slightly, positive and negative alike, which presumably reflects his higher profile after an election campaign. The biggest mover is “aggressive”, up six to a still modest 36%.

• A series of questions on “leader trust to handle issues” finds Bill Shorten favoured in almost every case, reflecting the fact that that issues identified are mostly on turf favourable to Labor. A curious is exception is “regulating the banking and finance sector”, on which Turnbull led 33% to 29%.

• The poll also finds strong support for voluntary euthanasia, which is supported by 68% “when a person has a disease that cannot be cured and is living in severe pain” and opposed by 13%.

• Strong opposition to liberalising of cross-media ownership laws was recorded, with 61% disapproving and 18% approving.

• Respondents were asked to evaluate the level of importance of five issues, which found climate change, a royal commission into the banking and finance industry and a treaty with indigenous Australians rated of high importance, and votes on same-sex marriage and a republic substantially less so.

• Fifty-eight per cent said they would support recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the constitution, with 15% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,470 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. Tony Abbott on 3AW: “Hanson was a threat to Howard in 96 so I had to destroy her. Hanson is a threat to Turnbull in 16 so I try to employ her”

    * poor reception for 3AW in Sydney so the transcript might be a little off…

  3. Adrian
    #100 Tuesday, September 27, 2016 at 10:01 am
    Great LEONARD COHEN words.
    Your muse Michael Brissendon will probably quoting some of the great country stuff in the near future. In my mind’s eye I can see him standing bravely against the storm of adversity and singing “He Holds the Lantern While His Mother Chops the Wood”.
    And on that note I will now fire up the chain saw and fill the green bin. I find this very therapeutic. 😀
    I am typing this using Firefox on Windows 8.1. Crap OS. Windows 7 was great at its time. Windows 10 is the bee’s knees and the cat’s pyjamas conbined. Just my opinion.

  7. I agree that the Liberals are in a hole they probably can’t get out of, given the multiple problems they are facing, but 3% off their pv in one hit is a big drop and a bit hard to believe without further confirmation IMO. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a small move back to them in the next Newspoll.

    That said, it’s interesting that both Newspoll and Essential are now saying much the same thing; and given Kevin Bonham’s most interesting post a couple of days ago suggesting that Labour only needs a 50-50 2pp next time to win government the $1.87 available on a Labor win in 2019 (or sooner) and the $1.70 on Turnbull to be the next leader to go both look like excellent value to me.

    I have been saying for months that the Liberals would win narrowly this year and that Labor would thrash them next time around. I got the first part right and it’s looking more and more like I might be right on the money with the second one also.

  8. Thanks Adrian for the Cohen song
    I’d never heard it before so I just listened to it. Great upbeat CW treatment on the recording, really matched the irony of the words.

  9. guytaur @ #52 Tuesday, September 27, 2016 at 8:20 am

    I expect the Medicare issue is doing the same as people visit the doctor and spread the news around friends and relatives that yes they are being charged for tests and visits they were getting “free” before.

    These changes came into effect on July 1, which was, I believe, a major reason why it was imperative to hold the election on July 2. No-one would’ve noticed the changes that took effect the day before. If the election was held later in the year the changes would be noticed as we’re seeing in the polls.

  10. I think Hillary Clinton’s campaign has made its first mistake in the debate. They won the toss and Clinton is going to take the first question.

    Doesn’t make much difference, given the format of the debate:

    Each segment will begin with a question. One candidate will have two minutes to respond, then the other candidate will have two minutes to respond. That will be followed by 10 minutes of open debate and discussion.

    Due to the results of a coin toss, the first question of the debate will go to Clinton. The same question will then be asked to Trump. In the second segment, the order will be reversed, with the lead-off question going to Trump, then Clinton. And so on.

    There will be 6 segments, so each candidate gets 3 chances to go first regardless of who takes the starting question. And the bulk of the time is set aside for open debate anyways.

    Going first doesn’t mean Clinton never gets to be in a position to rebut Trump. What it really means is that Clinton get to have both the first word and the last (in the 6th and final segment, Trump will go first). That’s a huge advantage, if she plays it right.

    I don’t think she could have turned down the opportunity to go first without being accused of weakness/fear. She’s got to be acutely aware that sexism means she has to work twice as hard just to convince people that she’s just as entitled as a man to be president.

  11. ‘This SMH editorial says it’s time to go for the “full Gonski”.

    So why did they endorse the LNP at the election?’

    Independent. Always. Of Logic.

  13. Capilano is selling imported honey as ‘Australian’.

    From the petition:
    https://www.change.org/p/6659432/u/17972912?recruiter=31358557&utm_campaign=petition_update_email_twitter_dialog&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=petition_update

    “Australia should follow New Zealand and ban the importation of foreign honey because it poses a biosecurity risk. Like drug cheats in sports it may take years for science labs to catch up to honey cheats. Many Australians are likely to be consuming adulterated honey”

    …Australian brands that don’t blend with overseas honey are Archibald, Penisula Honey , Edmonds Honey , Beechworth.

    …Capilano sell under numerous brands Allowrie, Wescobee, Barnes , Smiths and home brand honeys please avoid these brands.

  16. @ Darn – it probably wasn’t a 3% move, considering the corroborating Essential results, it is more likely the prior Newspoll on 50% was wrong, not this one.

  17. ‘Windows 10 is the bee’s knees and the cat’s pyjamas conbined. Just my opinion.’

    KayJay, your opinion is being considered by someone who just downloaded the latest Mac OS, Seirra and found that several relatively normal functions didn’t appear to be working. Still prefer it to Windows 10 at work though.

    The Captain would have to be one of my all time favourite country songs.

  18. No voting figures article up yet as far as I can see

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2016/09/27/essential-indigenous-recognition-struggling-for-support/
    Sep 27, 2016
    Support for indigenous recognition in the constitution falling: Essential

    Support for constitutional recognition of Australia’s first peoples is weaker than previously thought, and a high proportion of “don’t knows” could prove fertile ground for opposition.
    Bernard Keane Politics Editor

    Support for recognition of Australia’s first peoples in the constitution is below 60% in today’s Essential Report, with more than a quarter of voters uncertain about the issue and a solid core of people opposed, disproportionately conservative voters.

    The result suggests there’s now a real question over successful passage of the referendum, which needs majority support in a majority of states: 58% of voters say they would vote recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander, 15% say they would vote against it and 28% say they’re not sure.

  19. ‘Thanks Adrian for the Cohen song
    I’d never heard it before so I just listened to it. Great upbeat CW treatment on the recording, really matched the irony of the words.’

    Cheers TPOF. Yes, the jaunty CW music is perfect for the words.
    It’s one of his most underrated songs IMHO, probably since he rarely seems to record it these days.

  22. adrian
    #117 Tuesday, September 27, 2016 at 10:37 am
    The best OS is what you (one) is used to and what programs you have gathered over the years. I have MS Office 2016 which is useful for obvious reasons. I have a couple of programs to make Win 10 behave without the touch features.
    Best of all I have an old no longer available to the general public program which give me 50000 photo objects to play with and the make gravatar. I have Photoimpact and various programs to read or change EBooks, a business card program. File manipulation programs and miscellaneous bits and bobs. All in all whatever suits and works. 😎
    Some of the emoticons on Win 8.1 are in BW and some coloured. 👿

  23. Scott Bales
    Tuesday, September 27, 2016 at 10:36 am
    @ Darn – it probably wasn’t a 3% move, considering the corroborating Essential results, it is more likely the prior Newspoll on 50% was wrong, not this one.

    Good thought Scott. I hope you’re right.

    The next Newspoll will be very interesting.

  24. [Support for constitutional recognition of Australia’s first peoples is weaker than previously thought, and a high proportion of “don’t knows” could prove fertile ground for opposition.
    Bernard Keane Politics Editor]

    The usual suspects have muddied the waters so much (as they have done for SSM) that it’s unclear precisely what people would be voting on. With Brandis in charge of any referendum (combined with opposition from the usual RWNJs), there is a high probability that the whole thing would go off the rails.

  25. “George Brandis invited Labor’s Mark Dreyfus to try reach a plebiscite compromise”

    From http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/make-no-mistake-labor-and-the-coalition-are-playing-politics-with-samesex-marriage-20160926-groife.html

    Pretty much hits the nail on the head.

    When the RW of the Coalition say ‘compromise’, they mean ‘we will try to convince you to do exactly what we want’.

    The Coalition should be approaching Labor for a ‘marriage equality compromise’, not a ‘plebiscite’ compromise. The Coalition cannot simply declare that passing ME tomorrow, for free, with no hate speech is off limits, and ask Labor to compromise on ways to make the Coalition’s expensive, slow and hateful ME path slightly less of a shit option.

    Turnbull, Australia will have marriage equality, and soon. If we need to destroy your career to do it, we will.

  30. The Coalition have done nothing these past few months but blame Labor for everything. Even our fool of a PM took the opportunity of an international forum to have a go. It really is getting harder to tell the difference between him and the fool he replaced.

  34. Trump is trying hard to look Presidential. How long he can keep it up is a good question. But it is mostly hot air and ‘build it and they will come’ dreaming.

    Clinton is being polite and very gently complimentary.

  36. Trump’s first smarm. And then he talks over the moderator.

    This debate matters because there are more uncommitted and disillusioned voters than there have been for many years.

  42. I’m not happy at the way Trump is shouting over Hillary. I thought that might happen. And I suppose some might admire the technique of throwing new accusations at her in the middle of her answers, but I’d call that bullying.

  44. Citizen

    The usual suspects have muddied the waters so much (as they have done for SSM) that it’s unclear precisely what people would be voting on.

    Yep. They specialise in making propositions to the public in very general terms rather than saying ‘these are the specific words that are proposed’.

  45. On taxes, all Clinton needs to say is “why should we listen to advice on taxes from someone who’s not even willing to publish his own tax returns?”.

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