Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The latest fortnightly result from Newspoll registers the best two-party result for Labor since Malcolm Turnbull became prime minister.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll, courtesy of The Australian, finds Labor opening up a 52-48 lead after a 50-50 result a fortnight ago, with the Coalition down three on the primary vote to 38%, Labor up one to 37%, and the Greens up one to 10%. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down two on approval to 32% and up two on disapproval to 55%, while Bill Shorten is up one to 36% and down one to 51%. However, preferred prime minister is little changed, with Turnbull’s lead shifting from 43-31 to 44-33.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Bit of movement in the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average, with the Coalition up two on the primary vote to 39%, Labor down one to 36%, the Greens down one to 9%, One Nation steady on 6% and the Nick Xenophon Team down to 3%. Despite the apparent move in the Coalition’s favour, Labor’s two-party lead remains at 52-48. Other findings:

• An occasional series of questions on leaders’ attributes reflects a slight deterioration in Malcolm Turnbull’s standing since it was last asked in May, with arrogant up five points, narrow-minded up four and visionary down five. Nearly every one of Bill Shorten’s 15 indicators are up slightly, positive and negative alike, which presumably reflects his higher profile after an election campaign. The biggest mover is “aggressive”, up six to a still modest 36%.

• A series of questions on “leader trust to handle issues” finds Bill Shorten favoured in almost every case, reflecting the fact that that issues identified are mostly on turf favourable to Labor. A curious is exception is “regulating the banking and finance sector”, on which Turnbull led 33% to 29%.

• The poll also finds strong support for voluntary euthanasia, which is supported by 68% “when a person has a disease that cannot be cured and is living in severe pain” and opposed by 13%.

• Strong opposition to liberalising of cross-media ownership laws was recorded, with 61% disapproving and 18% approving.

• Respondents were asked to evaluate the level of importance of five issues, which found climate change, a royal commission into the banking and finance industry and a treaty with indigenous Australians rated of high importance, and votes on same-sex marriage and a republic substantially less so.

• Fifty-eight per cent said they would support recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the constitution, with 15% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,470 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. Ronzy
    #2246 Sunday, October 2, 2016 at 4:47 pm
    Thank you.
    You will recall when the mental hospital residents were more or less booted out in NSW and presumably other states.
    We then had and have what is the deplorable state of empty mental hospitals and full jails. Way to go Australia.
    Of course the now government is doing it’s bit by cutting funding to every organisation that is trying to help.
    Rosie Batty raising awareness while the government cuts funding to shelters. Makes one proud to be an Orstryan.
    Not a long post at all. A longed for post. Onya friend.

  6. Ronzy

    Sorry about the long post, but I have my dander up

    At the Bludger Lounge such stories never require an apology. No matter how long they are. Such reports from the coalface of life are always welcomed.

  7. Love the Bill Maher clip, especially the insinuation re cocaine.
    Given what is said about HRC it is only fair.
    This article on Medium makes the perceptive point
    https://medium.com/@Chris_arnade/two-isolated-americas-fae2720fb48#.vvszu9vdy
    That for every progressive voter that sees Trump as unfit to be President there is a conservative voter who feels the same way about Hillary.
    From the article
    “What we have done, is create two entirely separate narratives, two separate realities, with two separate value systems.”

  8. Sundays are a bad day for taking out the trash – in fact, when I thought a story had ‘legs’, I’d release it on a Sunday.

    Firstly, newsrooms are well staffed on Sundays, as journos wait for the sports news, so there’s always someone with the time (and the camera) to cover a story.

    Secondly, if a story gets a run in the Monday papers, it can set the tone for the rest of the week.

    Fridays are taking out the trash day, particularly if you leave it until after the Saturday papers are put to bed, because if it doesn’t get a run Saturday, it’s old news by Monday.

  18. Rex Douglas
    Sunday, October 2, 2016 at 5:03 pm
    Ronzy

    Do you incorporate christianity in your counselling ?

    Only if the person comes to me in my role as chaplain, as opposed to counsellor, or if they seek spiritual guidance. Indeed, I am very respectful of the beliefs of others, and will never attempt to undermine the belief system of someone who turns to me for help. That is the last thing they need in a time of crisis. In this respect, I take the advice of Francis of Assisi quite seriously – “preach the gospel always, if necessary use words”. In other words, how I live my life and treat others is far more important than anything I say. Being the flawed human being that I am, the less I say the better, lest it come back and bite me on the bum.

  20. In response to the youtube link above re Stuart Robert being asked abou Sunland

    Penny Toland
    Penny Toland – ‏@PennyToland

    @Qldaah @YouTube He fails to mention the $60 000 Fadden Forum donated to GCCC candidates or his letter to the GCCC CEO praising Sunland
    9:22 PM – 1 Oct 2016
    5 RETWEETS2 LIKES

  22. Speaking of good days to put out the trash, Alastair MacGibbon’s report into the IT aspects of the census failure was expected to be out last month …

    http://www.computerworld.com.au/article/606079/report-census-review-expected-month/

    It wouldn’t surprise me if they had already completed it (how long does it take to find out that there was no DDoS attack and that the system was simply badly designed and completely overloaded?) but were awaiting a suitable day to release it.

  23. ronzy @ #2268 Sunday, October 2, 2016 at 5:24 pm

    Rex Douglas
    Sunday, October 2, 2016 at 5:03 pm
    Ronzy
    Do you incorporate christianity in your counselling ?
    Only if the person comes to me in my role as chaplain, as opposed to counsellor, or if they seek spiritual guidance. Indeed, I am very respectful of the beliefs of others, and will never attempt to undermine the belief system of someone who turns to me for help. That is the last thing they need in a time of crisis. In this respect, I take the advice of Francis of Assisi quite seriously – “preach the gospel always, if necessary use words”. In other words, how I live my life and treat others is far more important than anything I say. Being the flawed human being that I am, the less I say the better, lest it come back and bite me on the bum.

    You seem a legitimate humanitarian.

    Thankyou.

  24. daretotread @ #2208 Sunday, October 2, 2016 at 3:06 pm

    TPOF
    I do not pretend to have a detailed knowledge of the specifics of the WWII, but you point about the “final solution”being in 1942 is after the declaration of war with the USA. At this time the option for deporting Jewish people to the USA was effectively closed. Had Germany and the US not been at war it is more than likely that mass migration of many may have been an option. I cannot say for sure it would have happened but nor can you assume it would NOT. I think communists and socialists would have been exterminated under either scenario but I am less sure about others, especially children.
    My point is that circumstances change in a war and even minor events can change the outcome. “For the want of a nail my kingdom was lost.” Both the personalities of Churchill and Roosevelt were key to the final outcome of the war and if either had died or lost power we cannot know the outcome of the war.

    The idea that anyone in the Nazi hierarchy seriously entertained the idea of mass deportations to the USA at any time after 1938 (or even before) is simply fanciful rubbish unsupported by any serious available evidence. I really can’t debate this further until you get some actual knowledge of the course of the Holocaust. Every serious historian of World War II has addressed the Holocaust substantially. Try to find something by Ian Kershaw or Antony Beevor for starters.

  25. TPOF

    Try to find something by Ian Kershaw or Antony Beevor for starters.

    DTT more at home with something like John Birmingham.

  26. 1948 Movie Red River on just now.
    Lady has arrow through top of shoulder, Montgomery Clift cut off the barb, withdraws arrow and suck out poison.
    Made me think of the gentleman referred to in funny bit mentioned in earlier post and posts a couple of days ago who was bitten on an extremity twice .
    What is the current treatment for such an injury? Are there options?

  30. The Western Bulldogs indebted to John Howard.

    A tainted premiership…. ?

    I seem to have a recollection of John Howard spearheading a Collingwood grand final win in the late 1970s.

  32. kezza2
    #2277 Sunday, October 2, 2016 at 5:58 pm
    Hello Kezza.
    It’s a pity to associate such great music and musicians with such a buncha (insert own words).
    Never mind, I get the sentiment. Maybe Malc can take his turn by singing “Only the Lonely”. 🙄

  33. John Howard grew up in Earlwood in Sydney, in the Canterbury local Government area, soon to be in the merged Canterury-Bankstown council. So, according to standard Sydney tradition, he should by rights be a supporter of the NRL Bulldogs.

  35. Boerwar
    You will be saddened to know that the swan/bulldog is being replayed and the only complaint I heard was the goal disallowed by video evidence.

  37. Frednk
    Not saddened at all.
    There is no way that the 4:1 free kick ratio halfway during the last quarter represented anything other than crap umpiring.
    I feel sorry for the Swans who played all year only to be crapped on by the umpires.
    I feel sorry for the Dogs for having to put up with a tainted Flag through no fault of their own.

  38. It’s hard to put a finger on Turnbull’s biggest failure in the last two week; I would have given it to going to the UN and boasting about our deplorable border policy; that killed any idea there might be a real Turnbull who had a clue.
    Blaming windmills for falling transmission towers; he painted himself as a nutter and as nutty as Abbott. Not Good.

  39. Hey Boer, aka “Tony Tainted Vote” War

    Give it a rest.

    You’ve made some magnificent posts over the years; this isn’t one of them.

    Are you sure you’re okay?

  40. TPOF
    I do not want to get into a protracted argument on the subject because I have no detailed knowledge not do I pretend to have such. My point is really simple. Military conflicts, no matter how well intentioned often have a habit of turning out not as we might expect or hope.

    WWII led to millions of deaths that were obviously the result of the war itself. Most of those were Russians but others of course too. During the war we also had the holocaust – the mass extermination of Jewish people, Romany, Communists and others. Had there NOT been any war we really do not know if the Germans would have followed through with their final solution. International pressure, reluctance by German themselves (often weakened in times of crisis eg war) may well have avoided the worst of the holocaust. Persecution for sure would have happened, ghettoisation too, but possibly not the gas chambers. Who knows – not you, not me? Probably even the Nazi would not have known.

    My point remains. If you start, assist or encourage any kind of military action, be it war, revolution or insurgency take note that the consequences may well be worse than the original disease. Of course it might not- it might lead to a better life for many, with only minimal loss of life or injury. But it might not. Observation suggests that about 95% of the time the damage exceeds the good.

  41. Boerwar

    There is no way that the 4:1 free kick ratio halfway during the last quarter represented anything other than crap umpiring.

    Well , unless there was a 4:1 offending rate. A rate typical of teams under the pump .

  43. kezza2 @ #2289 Sunday, October 2, 2016 at 6:35 pm

    Hey Boer, aka “Tony Tainted Vote” War
    Give it a rest.
    You’ve made some magnificent posts over the years; this isn’t one of them.
    Are you sure you’re okay?

    It’s the $50,000,000,000 same/same policy on subs that has Boerwar frazzled these days.

    Who can blame him… 😉

  46. Ronzy,
    Thank you for your dander. : ) I am glad you brought it to our attention. I advise you to get in touch with Labor’s Shadow Assistant Minister for Mental Health, Senator Deborah O’Neill. She may not be able to help you substantively at this point in time because Labor aren’t in government. Yet. However, she would be pleased to take note of your group and may arrange for you to visit her in Canberra. : )

  48. P
    Your theory is plausible but does not fit the facts.
    The game had been pretty even, with the lead changing several times, while the umps were crapping all over the Swans at a rate of 4:1.

  50. Rex

    Yeah, well, I saw people of Dutch descent get a bit of a pounding the other week. Which was unfair.

    In my neck of the woods, in about the mid-50’s to late 60’s, we had a lot of Dutch immigrants.

    To tar them all with the same brush was/is stupid.

    There were arrogant pricks among them, sure, but by and large they were seemingly happy, gregarious, yet reserved, people, eager to make a new life, and to fit in where they could.

    And ran the usual gamut from humble to outrageous.

    I don’t think Boerwar for a moment is frazzled. I think he beginning to see cheats everywhere. And he’s not half wrong.

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