Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

No change on voting intention from Essential Research, but Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings improve slightly after post-election dip.

No change in the two-party preferred reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average this week, with Labor maintaining a lead of 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 40% and Labor, the Greens and the Nick Xenophon Team are steady on 37%, 10% and 4%. Monthly leadership ratings find Malcolm Turnbull recovering slightly from his post-election dip, with approval up one to 38% and disapproval down five to 43%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down two to 37% and steady at 41%. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is up from 39-31 to 40-30. Other questions find opinion finely balanced on the effect on Australia of “globalisation” (29% gained, 29% lost, 18% neither). Forty per cent of respondents were ready to subscribe to the frankly idiotic view that “Australian trade with other countries” causes Australia to lose more jobs than it gains, with only 28% providing the correct and obvious answer. The poll also finds 45% approving of the census keeping names and addresses versus 39% disapproving; 47% saying the state of the economy is getting worse, with only 13% saying it’s getting better and 25% saying the recent interest rate cut will make them better off versus 29% for worse off.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,566 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Christine Milne and Julia Baird are right, and the ABC news use of the word ‘stoush’ just shows what they’re aiming for. A stoush is far more entertaining in their eyes than a genuine debate among experts.

  2. Adrian

    Yes. A stoush rarely convinces anyone. It just reinforces closed minds.

    Senator Roberts elect showed that in spades last night.

  3. leroy lynch @ #3265 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 9:30 am

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2016/08/16/essential-census-headed-for-the-rocks-as-voters-refuse-to-participate/

    In the aftermath of last Tuesday’s census disaster, 71% of Essential respondents said they had provided their name and address, while 23% had yet to fill out the census, and 6% plan to not provide their name and address at all.

    Thanks for this. Other reports put the response rate as low as 50%, so the Essential survey looks a little overcooked. But even if Essential is right on the money, this is more than enough to make the census statistically useless.

    I wonder how long this government will persist in throwing money at a problem that is simply not going to go away?

    I expect the threats will start to escalate soon.

  6. ‘Roberts is weird

    He is however NOT stupid and anyone who says he is is showing their own limited intellect.’

    Not sure about that. His answers to other questions like he didn’t believe the Nauru revelations because Pauline had spoken to a guard and they said that they weren’t true, shows a man of extremely limited intellect if he genuinely believes that.

    And the idea that you just need to explain reality to him more convincingly and you’ll get somewhere is pure rubbish.

  9. C@tmomma,

    Anytime.
    Despite all the things I have read on this site over nearly 10 years I don’t think I have been as offended as much as I was last night after reading the toilet paper worthy letter penned by that particular precious poster.
    The arrogance and self importance it would take to pen such an abortion of a letter only reinforces my opinion that the far left are every bit as dangerous to open public discourse than the far right whackos they deride.
    I would call for a ban on all far left green loons on this site but for the fact Im not a hypocrite, im not scared to hear their opinions and they provide me with hours of entertainment with their juvenile virtue signalling and laughable identity politics.

  11. adrian @ #3306 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 10:17 am

    ‘Roberts is weird
    He is however NOT stupid and anyone who says he is is showing their own limited intellect.’
    Not sure about that. His answers to other questions like he didn’t believe the Nauru revelations because Pauline had spoken to a guard and they said that they weren’t true, shows a man of extremely limited intellect if he genuinely believes that.
    And the idea that you just need to explain reality to him more convincingly and you’ll get somewhere is pure rubbish.

    I found his apparent attitude to the Nauru particularly offensive.

  14. Despite the “Australian Signals Directorate” being thrown around as many times as they could fit it in (presumably as a source of unimpeachable authority) a careful read of this article …

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/security-officials-find-ibm-failings-in-census-collapse/news-story/acb1f2a36e7e715bd2cfdf750b113ea7

    … indicates that even if there was a DDoS attack, it was not that which brought down the census site. It was a poor system design that was unable to cope with the load, plus the complete absence of any contingency planning when the system started to struggle. This led the ABS to a panic decision to take the site down.

    These are the same people that want you to trust them with your personal data.

  15. Adrian
    There are a range of intellectual abilities of which capacity to understand motive and bias in others is just one facet. Roberts commented on the “guards” at Nauru was certainly extremely naive, but given that we have posters here accepting the word of the “guards” at ABS about data reveals, I see this as only fairly averagely naive.

    My own guess is that Roberts will turn out to be a very loose cannon with some very unpredictable policy positions, some good some terrible. The extent to which he brings pauline along for the ride will be very interesting.

  16. The rapid collapse of the Govt/ALP same same asylum seeker policy will be music to the ears of the people smugglers.

    Dutton and Nuemann would be wise to work together to immediately arrange for a 3rd country for resettlement or the mass drownings will resume.

  17. Cox got absolutely nowhere on this last night and did not dent Roberts even a teensy bit.

    I agree with this. Cox tried to be rational. Roberts was having none of it. Consensus is not conclusive proof of the correctness of any scientific theory.

    And what better way to undermine a scientific theory than to attack the entire basis of it as a conspiracy between several huge world organizations to nobble the data, with the aim of enslaving humanity? You have to admire the chutzpah of Roberts pointing to one tiny point in the graph of ascending world temperatures as proof that the climate is cooling, not warming. The question that was not asked was that if these huge and technologically dominant world organizations had nobbled the data, why didn’t they nobble this part of the graph? I guess Roberts would simply have answered that they were incompetent as well as dishonest.

    You can’t defeat a Gish Gallop, which is a debating technique invented exclusively for situations like Q&A. You bombard your victim with conspiracy theories, mind-numbing lists of numbers and pseudo science in a breathless rant that exhausts the available air time. With Tony Jones in the middle impersonating a program moderator, Cox asking Roberts whether he believed in modelling was pointless. Roberts can say “Yes, I do” and still naysay the model, and the modellers, and the organizations they work for.

    If Cox says sea levels are rising, then Roberts can counter this with a flat denial, indeed with a flat rebuttal, claiming that sea levels are actually dropping.

    The critical point is that you cannot win with these people, certainly not in a forum with scarce time resources.

    One other point about Q&A last night was that Baby Face Hunt claimed the government had increased the staffing levels at the CSIRO by “11%”. As far as I know this was incorrect. It’s not “11%”… it’s “11”, as in 11 extra scientists.

    His argument was brilliant. Once staffing levels were reduced last year – incidentally under the government of which he is a member – that created a new bench mark. So any staff put back on, or added now are “increases”. When Hunt was asked about the reduction of staff evels in the past 8 or 9 months, he resorted to sophistry: that was the “previous government”. Since July 2 we’ve had a “new” government, so if you want to know what the previous government, and the previous minister thought or did, then you’d have to ask them. Next question please.

  18. KayJay

    I rather got the impression that Roberts was trying (not very well) to be a politician/team player and flick the Nauru issue over to Pauline. He said Pauline has talked to guards etc.

  21. Apart from the Essential Poll, it has been a long time between drinks for all the others to get out into the community and give us any feedback on voters’ attitudes.
    Is this typical after an election?

  22. player one @ #3314 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 10:27 am

    Despite the “Australian Signals Directorate” being thrown around as many times as they could fit it in (presumably as a source of unimpeachable authority) a careful read of this article …

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/security-officials-find-ibm-failings-in-census-collapse/news-story/acb1f2a36e7e715bd2cfdf750b113ea7

    … indicates that even if there was a DDoS attack, it was not that which brought down the census site. It was a poor system design that was unable to cope with the load, plus the complete absence of any contingency planning when the system started to struggle. This led the ABS to a panic decision to take the site down.
    These are the same people that want you to trust them with your personal data.

    1. Nothing new in your claims.
    2. You are conflating different issues.

  23. ‘I found his apparent attitude to the Nauru particularly offensive.’

    Me too. Next time you should try a wooden mask that doesn’t allow you to see or hear, as your tin foil hat was clearly inadequate for the job. I can lend you one if you like.

    Incidentally Hunt’s overbearing and ever so sincere concern for the lives of those lost at sea was almost as nauseating as Robert’s comments.

  25. adrian @ #3306 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 10:17 am

    ‘Roberts is weird
    He is however NOT stupid and anyone who says he is is showing their own limited intellect.’
    Not sure about that. His answers to other questions like he didn’t believe the Nauru revelations because Pauline had spoken to a guard and they said that they weren’t true, shows a man of extremely limited intellect if he genuinely believes that.
    And the idea that you just need to explain reality to him more convincingly and you’ll get somewhere is pure rubbish.

    That’s why I say I think he is part of a cult. I think he is parroting and that his deal is simply to extend an ideology and preserve it by way of specific philosophical arguing methods used to counter logic and reasoning. He is knowledgeable but only in the sense of being extensively programmed by an ideology and experienced in combating any logic or reasoning that threatens that ideology.

  26. Rex Douglas

    You’re a little behind on the facts. Turnbacks are working, so there is no need to continue the ‘preventative’ torture.

  28. ‘Roberts commented on the “guards” at Nauru was certainly extremely naive, but given that we have posters here accepting the word of the “guards” at ABS about data reveals, I see this as only fairly averagely naive.’

    Not really analogous. We are are talking about clear evidence of systematic abuse – 2000 reports, and he is prepared to take the third hand account of one guard over that.
    I’d call it stupid, rather than your extremely generous characterisation of naive.

  29. Another article pointing out that there is absolutely no evidence that a DDoS attack occurred on the night of the census, and in fact quite a lot of evidence tot he contrary
    ( http://stand.uow.edu.au/census-fail/) …

    Professor Katina Michael, from the School of Computing and Information Technology, says that for all intents and purposes, the evidence for an attack on the site does not stack up.
    “Network activity maps on the night of 9 August don’t show evidence of an attack from overseas. All the maps are showing no activity for the night in question.”
    Professor Willy Susilo, Head of the School of Computing and Information Technology and Director of the Centre for Computer and Information Security Research, agrees that the events that unfolded do not indicate a denial of service.

    But hey, what would these Computer Science and Information Security professors know, compared to the experts here on PB!

  30. @ boolean – most pollsters will probably wait for the publication of preference flows from the prior election before resuming publication. At the moment, Essential is using 2013 preferences still, I believe.

  31. player one @ #3329 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 10:45 am

    Another article pointing out that there is absolutely no evidence that a DDoS attack occurred on the night of the census, and in fact quite a lot of evidence tot he contrary
    ( http://stand.uow.edu.au/census-fail/) …

    Professor Katina Michael, from the School of Computing and Information Technology, says that for all intents and purposes, the evidence for an attack on the site does not stack up.
    “Network activity maps on the night of 9 August don’t show evidence of an attack from overseas. All the maps are showing no activity for the night in question.”
    Professor Willy Susilo, Head of the School of Computing and Information Technology and Director of the Centre for Computer and Information Security Research, agrees that the events that unfolded do not indicate a denial of service.

    But hey, what would these Computer Science and Information Security professors know, compared to the experts here on PB!

    No-one is disputing that AFAIR.
    You are arguing with yourself.

  34. I forgot to add the other technique that people like Roberts use.

    When you ask them if they are a Climate Scientist, they are perfectly correct in asking you the same question back in return. Even Brian Cox does not claim to be a Climate Scientist, so what would *he* know about the subject? It’s a compelling point.

    The problem with Climate Change is that it is so slow to take effect, and even if it speeds up a little here or there, it can be dismissed as just “weather fluctuations”, or by a reference to Dorothea Mackellar’s “droughts and flooding rains”.

    There will be Climate Change deniers until Climate Change has irrefutably happened and has caused the deaths of millions. By then, of course, it will be too late.

    Climate Change deniers deny the theory, the mechanism, the data, and the organizations that collect it. After they finished with that, they misinterpret any data that gets through their filter, to “prove” that it says the opposite of whatever it says. If that doesn’t work they invent conspiracies, call for Royal Commissions and make snide comments about the chronic inaccuracy of weather forecasts.

    I agree that Roberts is not unintelligent. He appears to be highly intelligent. It’s just that he has placed his faith in a different set of scientists than the set of scientists that the rest of the world has placed their faith in.

    Ultimately it becomes a matter of faith. Really, the only way to defeat these people is to ignore them. But don’t expect Q&A to ignore any opportunity to have a shouting match. That will never happen.

  35. Lizzie

    Would the ABF be equipped to deal with the considerable increase of boats if asylum seekers were brought to the mainland for processing?

  38. player one @ #3314 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 10:27 am

    Despite the “Australian Signals Directorate” being thrown around as many times as they could fit it in (presumably as a source of unimpeachable authority) a careful read of this article …

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/security-officials-find-ibm-failings-in-census-collapse/news-story/acb1f2a36e7e715bd2cfdf750b113ea7

    … indicates that even if there was a DDoS attack, it was not that which brought down the census site. It was a poor system design that was unable to cope with the load, plus the complete absence of any contingency planning when the system started to struggle. This led the ABS to a panic decision to take the site down.
    These are the same people that want you to trust them with your personal data.

    Yes, true. It sure won’t help to ease the concerns of people who greatly value their privacy and are already concerned.

  39. What appears certain is that Nauru/Manus are unsustainable as part of any Asylum Seeker resolution ..it’s only a matter of rapidly reducing time before they both fall over completely..

    Rex Douglas is almost correct in his last post ..almost. He forgot to mention that Malaysia was, and still is, part of ALP’s policy. It seems almost inevitable that Malaysia will be re-visited and that both sides will have to support it. The greens have made themselves irrelevant on this issue, so who cares what they come up with..

    The boats can’t all be stopped as the people smugglers ramp up their disgusting human trafficking trade, and more drownings will drive the Govt to a bi-partisan agreement to use Malaysia as the gateway to a genuine regional approach..

    However, the boats will NEVER stop coming..

  40. Markjs

    The LNP fell into Rudd’s diabolical trap. Offshore island detention only works if you have a Regional Solution in place.

    As we don’t they become indefinite detention hell holes destroying the credibility of the government operating them.

  41. I congratulate qanda for exposing the likes of Malcolm Roberts.

    The more people that witness his views the quicker he and his ilk are dismissed.

  42. Nicole.

    Your paranoid ramblings lately have shown me that your opinion is one which is to be discarded immediately.
    I dont think I have seen a more graceless and utterly delusional poster on this site ever.
    Well done.

  43. rex douglas @ #3335 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 10:48 am

    Lizzie
    Would the ABF be equipped to deal with the considerable increase of boats if asylum seekers were brought to the mainland for processing?

    Rex, it is just such a terribly dangerous sea crossing. The monsoon season is formidable and much of the year. Likewise, there are just so many people ready to exploit these vulnerable people should we open the way again. There has got to be a better way in which we can assist than either what we have now or opening that way again. Both are unacceptable as I see it. In principle, I would have no problem with onshore processing otherwise. I promise you that.

  44. Nicole

    Yes, true. It sure won’t help to ease the concerns of people who greatly value their privacy and are already concerned.

    What I find so amazing is the sheer gall of the ABS in lying about this from the start. They lied about their preparations, which they knew to be woefully inadequate, and then they lied about their system failure. They are still lying about that now.

    How can anyone trust anything they say?

  46. BB

    Well said.

    I like the view that it is a question of faith in this case which scientists you choose to believe. Roberts is just as selective in his choice of data as he claims the climate scientists are.

    The other relevant thing is that emotion generally trumps intelligence in our thought processes and beliefs, so that while we might be very “intelligent” we will rationalise those things that do not fit with our emotional mind set. My reading of Roberts is that denial of climate science is one such emotional overlay. I strongly suspect there are other, much nastier elements to his emotions which includes a “WASP” mind set that was common enough in the 30s-60s but is now anachronistic. I am choosing my words carefully here to avoid making libellous comments but I bet his mumma would not have wanted him to marry a catholic.

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