A place for discussion of the particularly diverting presidential election campaign under way in the United States. There are of course a great many forecasters and poll aggregators whose authority you might well judge higher than my own, but if for no other reason than personal amusement, I present the following aggregation of all the national polling recorded at HuffPost Pollster. This involved calculating bias adjustments, applying crude weightings to pollsters based on experience and performance, determining an “others” trend from such data as was available for that, and then determining trends for the major candidates’ shares of the non-others vote. The current reading has Hillary Clinton on 47.7% and Donald Trump on 38.5%, which is slightly less favourable for Trump than the HuffPost Pollster aggregate and correspondingly better for “others”.
With less than three months to go before the final reckoning, here’s a poll aggregate and a venue for discussion of matters American.