Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential Research records no change on two-party preferred, indifference as to the Australian Building and Construction Commission, and very strong support for a royal commission into banking.

This week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnightly average finds the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 39%, with Labor, Greens and Nick Xenophon Team steady at 37%, 10% and 4%, but two-party preferred is unchanged at 52-48 in favour of Labor. Other questions record 71% saying they gave their name and address when filling out the census, 6% saying they did not do so, and 23% saying they did not fill out the census, although one wonders if the sample might be skewed towards the sort of person who doesn’t mind filling out surveys of one kind or another. Also: 32% support the re-establishment of the Australian Building and Construction Commission and 18% with 28% opting for neither, after a question which sought to explain the situation to respondents; 35% rate the issue important, and 40% not important; and 64% supporting a royal commission into banking versus only 13% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,126 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. lizzie @ #3092 Tuesday, August 23, 2016 at 1:07 pm

    By compiling all of this information, the social media giant can begin to make conclusions about whether you’re likely to be a parent, married, an expat, or intend to buy a vehicle. Then they sell you as a target to advertisers. The assumptions the company makes aren’t always correct, but it doesn’t matter. Facebook built a $355 billion empire almost entirely on this information, and it doesn’t appear to be going away anytime soon.

    I wonder if it has occurred to anyone yet that all this information can be obtained directly from your census results? So know we know how valuable that information is – $355 billion worldwide, so let’s be conservative and say perhaps $20 billion for just Australia. Or perhaps even more, because the data from the census it is not just educated guesswork based on what sites you visit, or what half-truths or exaggerations you post on your facebook page – it is all fact.

    Now, does anyone still want this multi-billion dollar honeypot managed by an organization as demonstrably incompetent in online technology as the ABS?

  2. While Labor is right to try and get a free vote for same sex marriage up in Parliament and spare us the whole plebiscite farce, realistically the chances of success are very small. With Katter opposing, two ‘liberal’ Liberals would have to cross the floor of the House. Are there two such at the end of their careers who have no hope or aspiration for one of the jobs for the boys when they leave? Won’t happen.

    So the question is whether to let the plebiscite go ahead. That will take some care. If the Government tries to fudge the plebiscite in such a way as to invite a negative answer, by all means oppose. If the question and the process look fair, then I think it should go ahead. Supporters of change don’t want to repeat the mistake of the Direct-election republicans.

  4. Steve

    I am with Justice Michael Kirby. Much better no change until a parliament vote rather than having a plebiscite.

    Let the MP’s bear their responsibility for lack of action rather than trying to palm it all off to the public

  6. This is very disturbing stuff. Every bit as dangerous as anything this crowd of corporate whores have done or tried to do.

    trog sorrenson @ #2983 Tuesday, August 23, 2016 at 7:31 am

    WTF
    According to GetUp, Turnbull is about to privatise the ASIC database. This is probably more significant than the privacy issues around the census.

    Investigative journalists are on the front lines to expose shady corporate dealings – but Malcolm Turnbull is about to deal them a devastating blow.
    The Turnbull Government has been working behind closed doors to sell off Australia’s corporate ownership database. If he gets his way, Big Business will take control of over ten million corporate financial records.
    This Orwellian move could shut down scrutiny from journalists, academics and advocacy groups – all but eradicating corporate accountability. It’s a bitter recipe for rampant tax dodging and shady shell companies.
    So far the PM has managed to sneak this all under the radar. But now, with just one more week until the tender deadline, GetUp members are getting ready to blow the lid off Turnbull’s scheme with a massive public outcry – before it’s too late.

    https://www.getup.org.au/campaigns/asic-privatisation/asic-petition/turnbull-s-attack-on-transparency?t=y0gL3HK0y

  8. Guardian Australia‏ @GuardianAus
    Coalition backbenchers seek change to super proposal which could cut savings.

    #wibblewobble

  9. ‘This is very disturbing stuff. Every bit as dangerous as anything this crowd of corporate whores have done or tried to do.’

    Yet this is the crowd that some would implicitly trust with their Census data!

  14. guytaur @ #3110 Tuesday, August 23, 2016 at 2:34 pm

    IA’s new crash scene investigation unit forensically uncovers what went wrong in Senator Michaelia Cash’s excruciating interview with David Speers on Sky News yesterday.

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/crash-investigation-michaelia-crashs-fiery-car-wreck-interview,9387

    I loved this tweet at the bottom of the article.

    Dave Donovan @davrosz
    All I’ll say about Michaelia Cash’s interview with Speers is that I can see why both she and Brandis gave up practicing law to try politics.

  16. adrian @ #3109 Tuesday, August 23, 2016 at 2:30 pm

    ‘This is very disturbing stuff. Every bit as dangerous as anything this crowd of corporate whores have done or tried to do.’
    Yet this is the crowd that some would implicitly trust with their Census data!

    Ah, the census. I had an interesting census experience yesterday. A dark coloured van pulled up in my driveway, with a couple of middle aged people in it, who – without getting out of the car or any formalities (like showing ID), beyond simply stating they were from the census, – asked if I had done my census. Wasn’t openly hostile, but clearly not friendly either.

    Always tricky to know how much is one’s own cognitive bias, but frankly it felt a little intimidatory. We know who you are and where you live, type of implication.

    Add in Kalisch’s threats about widespread prosecution for failing to fill it out, and the pigswill from the government justifying it all, and it just reinforces my existing view that this census has been turned into a malignant grab for power over the citizenry by hostile forces within, and that it should be immediately stopped, scrapped, and redone again next year, without the name and SLK features, and with a new head of the ABS.

    The ALP better be on the right side on this critical issue. Time to differentiate, Bill. Big data, at least in this form, is not safe and not welcome.

  17. lizzie @ #3077 Tuesday, August 23, 2016 at 12:33 pm

    Adrian
    That wasn’t adoration from Annabel, that was a noncommittal polite smile.
    Actually, I thought that at any minute Cash was going to run the line “the poor should just work harder”.

    I think maybe the strange look on Annabelle’s face was over-reach in trying to politely, yes, maintain her composure. I am reminded of the soldiers in this Monty Python skit. 😀 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kMGu-55sKJs

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2K8_jgiNqUc

  18. Barney in Saigon

    Unlike Julia Gillard, it seems that Michaelia doesn’t have the skill to read a brief and quickly grasp the main points.

  23. Adrian, previous thread:

    Ah, the census. I had an interesting census experience yesterday. A dark coloured van pulled up in my driveway, with a couple of middle aged people in it, who – without getting out of the car or any formalities (like showing ID), beyond simply stating they were from the census, – asked if I had done my census. Wasn’t openly hostile, but clearly not friendly either.

    Always tricky to know how much is one’s own cognitive bias, but frankly it felt a little intimidatory. We know who you are and where you live, type of implication.

    I think you just struck a bad batch. The lady who came to check on us was quite friendly.

    Though maybe the cracks are beginning to show in the lack of response to the census. We don’t have any hard data on that yet.

  25. just me @ #3116 Tuesday, August 23, 2016 at 3:05 pm

    Add in Kalisch’s threats about widespread prosecution for failing to fill it out, and the pigswill from the government justifying it all, and it just reinforces my existing view that this census has been turned into a malignant grab for power over the citizenry by hostile forces within, and that it should be immediately stopped, scrapped, and redone again next year, without the name and SLK features, and with a new head of the ABS.
    The ALP better be on the right side on this critical issue. Time to differentiate, Bill. Big data, at least in this form, is not safe and not welcome.

    Agreed. I won’t be filling mine out until they back up and provide adequate upgraded security measures to protect our privacy. I will say I want to fill it out but have questions as yet unanswered before I feel safe enough to do so. I shall ask who I should speak to and go from there. Legislation created in 1905 and a privacy act dated 1988 is insufficient and inadequate in today’s world and considering the greatly expanded new role they wish to take on.

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