Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

A blip back to the Coalition from Essential Research, which also turns in results on climate change, same-sex marriage and foreign investment.

The Essential Research fortnightly rolling average moves back a point to the Coalition this week, with Labor’s lead narrowing to 51-49 from primary votes of Coalition 39% (steady), Labor 36% (down one), Greens 10% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 4% (steady). Also featured are occasional questions on issue salience, recording big increases since December 2014 for national security and terrorism and housing affordability, and the best party to handle the various issues, with very little change on the previous such result in June, except that Coalition deficits have narrowed slightly on health and education. A semi-regular question on climate change finds 57% attributing it to human activity, down two points since June, with “normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate” also down two since July to 26%. Support for same-sex marriage is up four points to 62%, while opposition is down one to 27%. Sixty-two per cent oppose public funding of advertising campaigns in the event of a plebiscite, with only 25% in support. Respondents were also asked to state if various types of foreign investment were good or bad for the country, which recorded a neutral result for mining and negative ones for ports, agriculture, infrastructure and real estate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,686 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  3. Q&A could have been a lot more interesting.

    The lead up to 1929 also came after an extended period of tax cuts to the rich, a rise in inequality, and a rise in nationalism. It took a real effort to make the show so boring.

    The best bit was when Mundine lit up his metaphorical cigar and started lecturing us on the benefits of trickle down economics and how anything else was a “pipe dream”. He handed Marmot the best slap down of the show.

  4. KayJay

    The big selling point is watching the facial expressions produced as they try and maintain composure whilst delivering the bullshit. With the amount of voltage directly linked to the degree of bulldusting there is the added interest of seeing how far they are willing to go.

  7. Ah Qld. Seriously you suck.

    A parliamentary inquiry into pregnancy terminations in Queensland has rejected a bill introduced by Cairns MP Rob Pyne to take abortion out of the state’s criminal code.

    The Health, Communities, Disability Services and Domestic and Family Violence Prevention Committee held public hearings across the state and received more than 1,400 submissions from concerned individuals, religious MPs and passionate healthcare professionals.

    “The committee was unable to support the bill as it failed to address a number of important policy issues and to achieve a number of its own stated objectives,” committee chair Leanne Linard MP wrote in the report.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/ginarushton/one-step-back?utm_term=.svRA5dynwR#.coll3x6EV1

    Seriously, what is it about Qld that holds this country back?

  8. poroti @ #2654 Monday, August 29, 2016 at 11:12 pm

    KayJay
    The big selling point is watching the facial expressions produced as they try and maintain composure whilst delivering the bullshit. With the amount of voltage directly linked to the degree of bulldusting there is the added interest of seeing how far they are willing to go.

    You are an artiste! Admiration. 🙂

  9. Question:

    I can’t recall with certainty but my recollection post 2010 election is that we had polls coming out of our ears in the wake of that election.

  10. Trickle down Mundine. Finding it hard to want to listen to him at all. He’s putting me to sleep. Just as well I haven’t much to go. Yawn!

  11. WWII fixed the inequality, and the tax system, and gave rise to things like national health. Perhaps with all this nationalism around only WWIII will sort it out. Perhaps it’s the natural order of things? (sarcastic smiley)

  13. Fess,

    You are probably right. It’s a bloody conspiracy I say!

    To be honest, I find the Essential at 51-49 very hard to believe. Turnbull is terminal.

  14. confessions @ #2657 Monday, August 29, 2016 at 11:20 pm

    Ah Qld. Seriously you suck.

    A parliamentary inquiry into pregnancy terminations in Queensland has rejected a bill introduced by Cairns MP Rob Pyne to take abortion out of the state’s criminal code.
    The Health, Communities, Disability Services and Domestic and Family Violence Prevention Committee held public hearings across the state and received more than 1,400 submissions from concerned individuals, religious MPs and passionate healthcare professionals.
    “The committee was unable to support the bill as it failed to address a number of important policy issues and to achieve a number of its own stated objectives,” committee chair Leanne Linard MP wrote in the report.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/ginarushton/one-step-back?utm_term=.svRA5dynwR#.coll3x6EV1
    Seriously, what is it about Qld that holds this country back?

    I blame Joh feeding the chooks every day for all those years. Sigh!

  15. question @ #2661 Monday, August 29, 2016 at 11:23 pm

    WWII fixed the inequality, and the tax system, and gave rise to things like national health. Perhaps with all this nationalism around only WWIII will sort it out. Perhaps it’s the natural order of things? (sarcastic smiley)

    Strangely enough, Thomas Pikkety in his “Capital In The 21st Century” said that unless some serious policy decisions are taken to tax capital, one of the only things that will reduce inequality is the global destruction of capital (ie World War III).

  16. confessions @ #2659 Monday, August 29, 2016 at 11:21 pm

    Question:
    I can’t recall with certainty but my recollection post 2010 election is that we had polls coming out of our ears in the wake of that election.

    That may have been due to the hung parliament. I seem to recall the first polls started showing up after the September 2013 election in late November, early December. Perhaps Mr Bowe can enlighten us on that matter.

  21. MARI – Yep, great editorial from the Age. It shows how totally craven AND STUPID Malcolm is that he doesn’t seize a free vote in parliament as a way of getting up of his knees and leaving a legacy as PM. Just absolutely hopeless.

  22. Dan,
    I haven’t read Pikkety, but I have read enough articles to know I am largely in agreement with his thesis. I call myself a Keynesian.
    A good program is “Inequality for all”, which also talks about the effect of WWII on economics. It’s from the U.S. but fits here just as neatly.
    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2215151/

  26. He Christopher Pyne (7:30 rerun) – how about a plebiscite on University Deregulation. Give the voters a stake in whether or not they, their childern and grandchildren are crushed with debt at the outset of their working life? Is it because the voters would have got it wrong?

    Pyne – you’re full of shit.

  28. Nongs who voted Liberal aren’t comfortable yet changing their voting intention, so they mark down Malcolm instead. But give them time.

  31. The poll of 1696 voters taken from last Thursday to Sunday shows the Coalition returns to parliament with a primary vote of 41 per cent, down from the 42.1 per cent result on election day. It is only the third government in the past 30 years to have suffered a fall in its primary vote in the first poll following an election.

    Labor’s support rose to 36 per cent, which remains historically low, but is up from 34.7 per cent at the July 2 poll.

    The primaries make better reading. 🙂

    It is very unusual that there is no winner’s “bounce”.

  35. K17,
    No doubt the same nong’s who woryy about the deficit, but freak out at carbon pricing and the removal of the negative gearing rort.

  36. When the hell will this AFL season finish? I am totally bloddy sick of it. They like to flog the damn lame horse, don’t they. Someone finished on the top of the league ladder didn’t they? They are the Premiers: give them the freaking trophy and go away for the rest of the year.

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