Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

A blip back to the Coalition from Essential Research, which also turns in results on climate change, same-sex marriage and foreign investment.

The Essential Research fortnightly rolling average moves back a point to the Coalition this week, with Labor’s lead narrowing to 51-49 from primary votes of Coalition 39% (steady), Labor 36% (down one), Greens 10% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 4% (steady). Also featured are occasional questions on issue salience, recording big increases since December 2014 for national security and terrorism and housing affordability, and the best party to handle the various issues, with very little change on the previous such result in June, except that Coalition deficits have narrowed slightly on health and education. A semi-regular question on climate change finds 57% attributing it to human activity, down two points since June, with “normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate” also down two since July to 26%. Support for same-sex marriage is up four points to 62%, while opposition is down one to 27%. Sixty-two per cent oppose public funding of advertising campaigns in the event of a plebiscite, with only 25% in support. Respondents were also asked to state if various types of foreign investment were good or bad for the country, which recorded a neutral result for mining and negative ones for ports, agriculture, infrastructure and real estate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,686 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. fess,
    Andrews has denied the accusations outright in a letter he sent to Neil Mitchell over the weekend.
    So the leakers have tp up the ante here with specific information or the story dies.
    Of course there are those that will believe the story without evidence. But, they already did not support or like Andrews in the first place.
    As for the media, they’ve been hammering Dan since day one and he’s stronger than ever.
    The reason Andrews has been so succesful as a politician is that he’s the smartest political thinker going around in this neck of the woods. I have every confidence that Andrews will see off his matter and emerge stronger.

  2. el guapo @ #2531 Monday, August 29, 2016 at 6:37 pm

    “So you can understand (not condone) some people in the party feeling that things haven’t worked out the way originally planned and a bit of We Woz Robbed going on”
    If you believe politics is about your faction being in power you might understand it. If you believe the purpose of politics is to, I don’t know, create better conditions for working people then it seems completely batshit crazy.
    ALP factions destroyed Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard’s careers and gave us Tony Abbott PM. Might be time to put a sock in it.

    Sounds batshit crazy to me. In fact I’m feeling a little like this.

  3. May I say a word about the Andrews story. Having had the pleasure of colostomy, the good thing about it is being alive and that it will quite soon normally be reversed. I have no idea whether Mr Andrews said what the charming broadcaster alleges or not. I also understand that politics is a dirty business from time to time and also what the highly esteemed Mr Tony Abbott has said “shit happens” Pun intended. 🙂

  4. I certainly hope Andrews can ride this out. Jacinta did herself mo favours round here last year with a poorly handled stoush over access to Vline trains. They stop here and she was going to completely ban ys from boarding them

  5. The Liberals gave appointed climate lunatic Chair of their backbench energy and environment advisory committee.
    It is just as well that Di Natale was right about Colesworth.

  6. The aim of the campaigners looking to tear down the Andrews Govt looks to be traditionally timed to culminate during the killing season over the Christmas break so you can expect a constant stream of internal leaking/smearing to corporate media over the next few months.

    There is nothing Andrews can do if these campaigners are determined.

  7. “The Liberals gave appointed climate lunatic Chair of their backbench energy and environment advisory committee.”

    The Liberal Party trolling of Australia continues.

  8. Sad to see 4 Corners perpetuating the lies that there was a DDoS attack on the ABS website, when all the experts say there was none. Actually, the whole program seems very superficial.

    Very disappointing.

  9. The secretary of the Committee, Hogan, ditto.
    Neither Kelly nor Hogan, have the remotest interest in environmental sustainability.
    It is just as well that Di Natale’s efforts to dedtroy Labor’s chancees of forming government were so effective.
    After all, Colesworth… right?

  10. I asume that thw Woolemi is being assailed by one of a suite of plant fungi.
    Many species of fungi, pathogens and insects have been ‘enabled’ by existing anthropogenic disturbances.
    AGW is going to add roids to the mix.
    It is just as well that the Frydenberg, Kelly and Hogan Colesworth troika have the reins.

  11. Don,
    I don’t keep animals like birds in cages, and I prefer native trees to remain that way.
    So, no, I wasn’t even considering a domesticated Wollemi Pine when I said what I did. But you keep being your punctilious best. : )

  12. Frednk
    Our credit cards have just been killed by this stuff.
    Our particular bank fraud (hack) case number may have been randomly genersted…
    OR our bank’s digital fraud cases were over the million mark.

  13. Neither Kelly nor Hogan, have the remotest interest in environmental sustainability.

    Frydenberg is Environment Minister. If ever you needed proof that Turnbull is at the mercy of the Abbottobads in the Liberal party it’s what he’s been forced into with the environment portfolio. Craig Kelly chairing that committee is just the icing on the cake for the reactionaries.

    Meanwhile the planet continues to cook. So incredibly frustrating.

  14. And the Minister for Big Gina, Matt Canavan, can reach over and whisper in Pauline Hanson’s ear.

    Ever the populist, kingmaker Nick Xenephon has chosen the back row

  15. Some one has a sense of the bizzare seating Corey Bernardi next to Eric Abetz

    Cash is seated next to Payne. I so hope the Cash Kath n Kim influence doesn’t rub off.

  16. Di Natalie’s back is easily reachable by Scott Ludlum and Larissa Waters. Could they be the Green Dream Team to knife the hapless docter?

  17. Fun Fact for the Senate observers and chroniclers:
    NSW ALP Senator Deb O’Neill, staunch Catholic, who is sat next to Malandirri Macarthy, has a Gay Indigenous staffer. : )

  18. Little and Large: Cash and Payne. : )

    Having seen Cash’s unique displays in the Senate you have to wonder whether Payne is secretly ruing her chamber seat-mate. 😀

  19. C@t

    Not yet, tho it’s a certainty that the most photogenic females will be stacked behind the government dispatch box.

  20. Opps should have said like the equivalent of Mc Namara and Griggs. I wonder who they will have replace those two in the HOR. I bet it will be women.

  21. Greensborough Growler
    #2593 Monday, August 29, 2016 at 8:06 pm
    Kay Jay,

    If he was a twin, he would be a one of two!

    Nah, he would still be one – the inferior one.


  22. Q&A
    I had to be very quick with the mute button for Mr. Mundine. He appears to be of the FU Jack I’m alright variety.
    Can we collectively adopt Sir Michael Marmot please?
    New invention required “Bullshit Meter” connected to politician’s hip pocket and transfer cash to tax office.

  23. Thought that was a great Qanda even though the ACOSS woman and Mundine annoyed me. But still, as it invariably is with Qanda we get stronger engagement with the discussion and ideas raised when the show does not have MPs onboard.

  24. Good Q&A tonight. All participants had worthwhile things to say, no grandstanders or boors. I agreed with some of what was said, disagreed with some.

    P.S. KJ – nice hat.

  25. Q&A a complete waste of time.
    Just a bunch of overpaid talking heads continuing the debate where Tony Abbott left it, i.e. is it immoral to be poor or not, why it’s wrong to talk about lifters and leaners and the taxed and taxed-nots. No fundamental discussion about how the spivs are progressively draining capital through the hole they have drilled in the social safety net, the un-democratic privatisation of public assets and how our politics are corrupted by big money.
    No fundamental discussion about how technological change is impacting job availability and what should be out strategy.
    Just a bunch of superannuated 60 year olds in fear of losing their 250k plus salaries if they say something relevant.

  26. The ABC Newsreader in a dazzling bright yellow jacket (didn’t know I needed sunglasses) said the fate of gay marriage depends on Labor. No, it depends on whether or not liberal “Liberals” decide to vote against their beliefs (which they will).

  27. Agreed Trog,

    Marmot said a lot of things that could have become an interesting discussion, but it instead got bogged down by a bunch of broken records going around and around.

  28. Steve777
    I more enjoyed Q@A although for me a lot was over my head and therefore my wig.
    I just need to change TV channels G. Brandi is getting to be connected to modified BS meter by Poroti. 🙂

  29. About as tedious as Mundine logging in BTW. Usually I can just click on the “you must be logged in” to make a comment, but it went to a “not found” screen and I had to use the “sign in” there. To get back here it was easier to open a new tab on the browser.

  30. Poroti
    I admire your engineering skills. Sales should bolster, if not your finances, your quiet enjoyment of the misery of those who most deserve it.

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