Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

A blip back to the Coalition from Essential Research, which also turns in results on climate change, same-sex marriage and foreign investment.

The Essential Research fortnightly rolling average moves back a point to the Coalition this week, with Labor’s lead narrowing to 51-49 from primary votes of Coalition 39% (steady), Labor 36% (down one), Greens 10% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 4% (steady). Also featured are occasional questions on issue salience, recording big increases since December 2014 for national security and terrorism and housing affordability, and the best party to handle the various issues, with very little change on the previous such result in June, except that Coalition deficits have narrowed slightly on health and education. A semi-regular question on climate change finds 57% attributing it to human activity, down two points since June, with “normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate” also down two since July to 26%. Support for same-sex marriage is up four points to 62%, while opposition is down one to 27%. Sixty-two per cent oppose public funding of advertising campaigns in the event of a plebiscite, with only 25% in support. Respondents were also asked to state if various types of foreign investment were good or bad for the country, which recorded a neutral result for mining and negative ones for ports, agriculture, infrastructure and real estate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,686 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  2. Scoutdog,

    Indeed. It is not Labor’s job to save Turnbull from internal divisions in his own Party.
    If the LNP can’t make a decison on SSM then how can you trust them to make decisons on anything else.

  3. [Confessions
    Monday, August 29, 2016 at 6:26 pm
    Of course, we should also throw into the mix that Labor has no supporters in the media down here.
    What do you mean “down here”? Labor has no supporters in the media anywhere!]

    Fairfax has a problem with fully expressing its political leanings in the ACT. The ‘Canberra Times’ is a failing newspaper produced by a failing company in a Labor leaning town. Doubtless the Canberra Times editor would like to come down fully in favour of the Liberals in the lead up to the October 15 election, however the stark reality is that they cannot afford to antagonise even more readers while circulation continues to fall.

  4. Scoutdog

    I saw the Project and have to say Waleed aly and Carrie Bickmore gave me the shits re the interview they conducted with Penny Wong

  5. Greensborough Growler
    Monday, August 29, 2016 at 7:10 pm
    Scoutdog,
    Indeed. It is not Labor’s job to save Turnbull from internal divisions in his own Party.
    If the LNP can’t make a decison on SSM then how can you trust them to make decisons on anything else.

    Turnbull can easily get legislation to establish a SSM plebiscite through the Senate. All he needs to do convince 9 out of 11 cross bench senators of the merits of the legislation and ignore what Labor and the Greens say. Simple…

    Pity about Turnbull’s need to grovel at the feet of the Abbott/Bernardi clique and the Nationals on this issue. Pity also about Turnbull’s need to conduct sensitive negotiations via megaphone.

  7. Scoutdog:

    We knew that would be the line the media took when we saw Mark Kenny’s column last week castigating the Greens for saying they were opposed to the plebiscite. I hope Wong pointed out that the govt hasn’t even framed the legislation or even what the plebiscite will look like. Therefore, what is there to support or oppose at this juncture?

  9. I had a conversation today with an opponent of Marriage Equality.

    He accepts that if we go ahead with a plebiscite, the majority will vote in favour.

    He accepts that he is on the wrong side of history and that it is likely to happen in his lifetime (although he’s not happy about it).

    Interestingly, he is against a plebiscite because he thinks the result is a foregone conclusion and it, therefore, represents a horrendous waste of money.

    His exact words at the end of our conversation: “Look, I don’t like it, but I know it’s going to happen anyway, so they should just bloody well get on with it and shut the fuck up.”

    I suspect he’s not the only “soft” opponent feeling like this at the moment.

  10. Lol. : )
    James Massola ‏@jamesmassola 7h7 hours ago

    Kevin Andrews – who challenged Julie Bishop for deputy – has just been elected backbench committee chair of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

  11. Victoria

    Yep – as I said I have been a defender of the Project and Waleed Aly / Carrie Bickmore; but they lost me with that interview no insight, analysis all about their point of view that yes the plebiscite is the way to go for something to happen.

    Disgraceful and yes it gave me the shits as well – we should be better than that

  16. Turnbull can easily get legislation to establish a SSM plebiscite through the Senate. All he needs to do convince 9 out of 11 cross bench senators of the merits of the legislation and ignore what Labor and the Greens say. Simple…

    Yep. Now’s the time for Turnbull to show AUstralians those awesome skills he learned to become a multi millionaire: winning friends and influencing people.

  17. From my perspective Andrews has been doing a great job and then over the last few months stuff is being said that simply shouldn’t be. And sadly about the only thing the media actually get right these days is leadershit.

  18. C@t

    john Setka from CFMEU is on the money. Since State Labor was elected, this state has been progressing with infrastructure and the like.

  22. First mention of the Biggie today – huge revenue give aways to foreigners and the banks.
    So much for budget repair.
    So much for the greatest moral issue of our time.

  24. Victoria

    Yep he made a comment later about taking everything to a plebiscite. But did not contribute anything —–hate the narrative going the way of the coalition on this one – real sense of deja’vu.

    Where is the leadership???? Several coalition politicians have stated clearly that if the result went against them they would not abide by so why bother – seriously Turnball has really disappointed; actually thought he would be able to walk the line of socially progressive but economic dry but no the far right have him by the nuts and media are not reporting on that at all.

    Penny Wong deserved better than that interview , she has copped abuse from the likes of Abetz for years deserves better than that crap

  27. ABC Q&A ‏@QandA 20m20 minutes ago
    Tonight watch #QandA with @cassandragoldie @nyunggai @MichaelMarmot Deborah Cobb-Clark Christine Bennett at 9.35pm AEST on #ABC & @abciview

    A non pollie Qanda so close to the resumption of parliament?

  28. Someone, like Dan Andrews, should sue Neil Mitchell for retailing a probable Liberal smear campaign.

    I thought it was a Labor MP who was supposedly behind the leak?

  35. vic,
    Unless someone goes public with specific information with dates, times and who was present then the story dies.
    Andrews knows who is spreading the nonsense. So career advancement soup is off the agenda for them.
    In politics it’s good to have enemies.

  37. “The stories/leaks are coming from disaffected Labor Members and their supporters.”

    Enough of the self-indulgent crap FFS.

  38. ME is not as important as the series of bills that will rip funding from the poor and from climate action, which will further empower the bosses and security orgabisations, which will white-ant public education and public health, and which will transfer massive amounts of wealth to the wealthy, to foreigners and to the banks.
    We should be focusing on how the cross bench numbers sit for this massive attempt at wrecking the bases for a just and democrtic society.
    IMO, ME is important but is not nearly as important as the above.

  44. Interesting piece of information about Colin Barnett’s son Sam and his visit to China:

    He was spruiking WA land sales to the Chinese with a photo of his father on a screen behind him.

  45. Unless someone goes public with specific information with dates, times and who was present then the story dies.

    You know that isn’t necessarily right. The story can keep going with a series of other supposed events/statements/happenings. The absence of specific information simply allows the disaffected to keep up the campaign, as we’ve seen countless times before.

  46. “El Guapo,
    You first!”

    Very amusing GG, but given the Libs want to tear the guts out of wages and conditions for working people and the public services many rely on, self-indulgent crap it is.

  47. The smear most likely originated on his own side of politics

    WTH!?! The guy gets them into government after 1 term in Opposition and there are ungrateful b’s trying to tear him down already!?!

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