Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

A blip back to the Coalition from Essential Research, which also turns in results on climate change, same-sex marriage and foreign investment.

The Essential Research fortnightly rolling average moves back a point to the Coalition this week, with Labor’s lead narrowing to 51-49 from primary votes of Coalition 39% (steady), Labor 36% (down one), Greens 10% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 4% (steady). Also featured are occasional questions on issue salience, recording big increases since December 2014 for national security and terrorism and housing affordability, and the best party to handle the various issues, with very little change on the previous such result in June, except that Coalition deficits have narrowed slightly on health and education. A semi-regular question on climate change finds 57% attributing it to human activity, down two points since June, with “normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate” also down two since July to 26%. Support for same-sex marriage is up four points to 62%, while opposition is down one to 27%. Sixty-two per cent oppose public funding of advertising campaigns in the event of a plebiscite, with only 25% in support. Respondents were also asked to state if various types of foreign investment were good or bad for the country, which recorded a neutral result for mining and negative ones for ports, agriculture, infrastructure and real estate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,686 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  3. Grrr. Brainless.

    Matthew Canavan ‏@mattjcan · 3h3 hours ago

    Good news for jobs. Court dismisses yet another case against Adani

  4. Anyhoo, some background (apologies if you’ve heard this before, or knew it already…)

    When Brumby lost, there were two Heirs Apparent, Jacinta Allan and The Guy Who Got Lost In the Mountains Whose Name Has Slipped My Mind (TGWGLIMWNHSMM)- Tim something or other.

    For whatever reasons, neither put their hand up, surprising just about every body.

    Tim quit politics all together (for reasons I have never been able to determine) and Jacinta went off and had babies (her hubby is an ex student of mine, which is just plain bragging and nothing to do with the matter).

    Daniel was the surprise candidate, the David Bradbury if you like – a steady pair of hands to guide us through the rebuilding process but likely to be replaced after the first election (which everyone thought, at that stage, Labor would lose).

    So you can understand (not condone) some people in the party feeling that things haven’t worked out the way originally planned and a bit of We Woz Robbed going on.

    They’d be better to learn a few lessons about the risks one needs to take on the path to power, seizing opportunities, carpe diem, or whatever motto you want to employ in these circumstances.

  5. Yeah sure zoomster whatever…

    But seriously, what’s the point of the ALP, as a Govt proposition, if the right faction is going to tear down it’s own Govt… again ??

  6. I think arguments about “Mandates” are incredibly arid, but if you want an arid argument, how can the libs claim a mandate when they only got about 30 per cent of the primary vote? I don’t remember the Nats agreeing to the whole Lib platform before the election (What was the “Turnbull Coalition Team” anyway). Indeed, there was no coalition agreement until AFTER the election.

  10. Could someone please point out to me the word “mandate” in the Australian Constitution.

    I don’t know what happened there!

  12. zoomster @ #2504 Monday, August 29, 2016 at 5:59 pm

    Anyhoo, some background (apologies if you’ve heard this before, or knew it already…)
    When Brumby lost, there were two Heirs Apparent, Jacinta Allan and The Guy Who Got Lost In the Mountains Whose Name Has Slipped My Mind (TGWGLIMWNHSMM)- Tim something or other.
    For whatever reasons, neither put their hand up, surprising just about every body.
    Tim quit politics all together (for reasons I have never been able to determine) and Jacinta went off and had babies (her hubby is an ex student of mine, which is just plain bragging and nothing to do with the matter).
    Daniel was the surprise candidate, the David Bradbury if you like – a steady pair of hands to guide us through the rebuilding process but likely to be replaced after the first election (which everyone thought, at that stage, Labor would lose).
    So you can understand (not condone) some people in the party feeling that things haven’t worked out the way originally planned and a bit of We Woz Robbed going on.
    They’d be better to learn a few lessons about the risks one needs to take on the path to power, seizing opportunities, carpe diem, or whatever motto you want to employ in these circumstances.

    That was Tim Holding.

    Good on Jacinta Allan, for whom I have a high regard, taking the decision she did. She is still a prominent Minister and who knows what her future holds?

    I don’t know how anyone could say “we woz robbed”. Dan was a surprise and very under-rated. He has gone very well.

  16. bemused

    Well, if you thought (when he was originally made leader) that he was only going to be there until the next election, and then you (or your candidate) was going to make their move, you would have the ‘We Woz Robbed’ thing going, rightly or wrongly (wrongly, of course).

  17. Of course, we should also throw into the mix that Labor has no supporters in the media down here.

    Fairfax and Labor had a major falling out because fairfax journos were found guilty (but acquitted as it was a first offence) of hacking Labor’s database, which was then followed by dictaphonegate, and ‘The Herald Sun’— well, of course.

    Throw into the mix that journos never like it when the Wrong Person wins an election. They’ve told everyone how to vote, and people go and make up their own minds. This obviously cannot be allowed, The People have got it wrong, and must be shown the error of their ways….

  18. rex douglas @ #2508 Monday, August 29, 2016 at 6:04 pm

    Why is it GG and zoomster are smearing Dan Andrews ?

    I think their comments were about you, not Daniel Andrews. You are, I’m sad to say, obsessed with a ridiculously simplistic view of the ALP (four legs good, two legs bad) and of the people in it. Ditto the Greens. These political parties are composed of people, with all the variation in human character that that entails.

    I have no doubt that some smug prick lurking in the bowels of the ALP has a Machiavellian interest in undermining Dan Andrews. These people exist in every other Branch of the ALP, not to mention the Liberals, the Nationals and the Greens, to name but a few political parties.

    But getting all worked up over it is only helping said person who has worked overtime to turn an alleged minor comment, which is actually pretty small if very unattractive, into a cause celebre.

    Again, politicians across the spectrum can be crude in private and butter wouldn’t melt in their mouths in public. I don’t know if Daniel Andrews did make something like this comment, but I reckon there would be hundreds of politicians in Australia who have been a hell of a lot cruder in private.

    The real – the only question – is who is the gutless coward who made the allegation in secret. And don’t go assuming it is the whole right wing. Whatever the faction, most members of Parliament know that poking big holes in the good ship Daniel Andrews will sink the lot of them.

  21. Zoomster
    Monday, August 29, 2016 at 6:19 pm
    Of course, we should also throw into the mix that Labor has no supporters in the media down here.

    Fairfax and Labor had a major falling out because fairfax journos were found guilty (but acquitted as it was a first offence) of hacking Labor’s database, which was then followed by dictaphonegate, and ‘The Herald Sun’— well, of course.

    Throw into the mix that journos never like it when the Wrong Person wins an election. They’ve told everyone how to vote, and people go and make up their own minds. This obviously cannot be allowed, The People have got it wrong, and must be shown the error of their ways….

    True.

    But the main point is that the right faction is using this media to tear down their own Govt…again.

  23. Rex,

    With all due respect I think you need to take a step back, remove your blinkers and re consider your shooting from the hip right wing plot theory in relation to the bullshit that came out today re Dan Andrews.

    There is a very small group of labor party members, inside and outside of caucus in Victoria not very happy with Dan atm and who are spreading dirt about him and they are not from the right.

    Put your thinking cap on, ponder recent high profile in the news on a daily basis events and think who within caucus has cause to feel aggrieved about their treatment and what faction to which they may belong. Add in a small number of disgruntled supporters of this person and you may be surprised.

    Cheers.

  24. Of course, we should also throw into the mix that Labor has no supporters in the media down here.

    What do you mean “down here”? Labor has no supporters in the media anywhere!

  25. zoomster @ #2516 Monday, August 29, 2016 at 6:13 pm

    bemused
    Well, if you thought (when he was originally made leader) that he was only going to be there until the next election, and then you (or your candidate) was going to make their move, you would have the ‘We Woz Robbed’ thing going, rightly or wrongly (wrongly, of course).

    I saw him as probably a stop-gap leader as I knew him as fairly low key and did not really see him as true leadership material.
    How wrong I was!

  27. TPOF

    I have no doubt that some smug prick lurking in the bowels of the ALP has a Machiavellian interest in undermining Dan Andrews.

    Oh I’d suggest the smug prick doesn’t lurk in the bowels of the ALP…

  31. “So you can understand (not condone) some people in the party feeling that things haven’t worked out the way originally planned and a bit of We Woz Robbed going on”

    If you believe politics is about your faction being in power you might understand it. If you believe the purpose of politics is to, I don’t know, create better conditions for working people then it seems completely batshit crazy.

    ALP factions destroyed Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard’s careers and gave us Tony Abbott PM. Might be time to put a sock in it.

  34. DTT,

    I am just a enthusiastic observer.

    All I can say from my amateur observations is that Rex is not even close in blaming the right for the destabilising that is currently being attempted on Dan Andrews.

    Sorry to disappoint.

    Cheers.

  36. Rex @6.38pm

    “Jane Garrett is from the Kim Carr faction… a Bill Shorten supporter”

    If this is correct, I think this is the first time I’ve ever seen Rex posting an actual fact.

  37. GG [Go on sing us your song]
    I will sing you a song and it wont take long…..

    I will sing the refrain but it goes the same…..

  39. Bushfire, that’s less than $60 per week per member. About the equivalent of a round of drinks at pub. And they have expenses you know. Ni-Allah their leader has to be paid, and then there are donations to various Liberal Party Foundations ….

  40. Turnbull is outraged that Bill Shorten should even dare to question the AFP’s right to do whatever it likes. To my mind, what these warrants show is that the AFP is an agency that is effectively out of control. No magistrate should have granted them, and the media should have immediately united in outrage against them.

    But it has not.

    I’ve written before that it’s no exaggeration to say that this country is on its way to creating a secret police. And the erstwhile defenders of Australia’s Right to Know — News Corporation Australia, Fairfax Media, the ABC, Seven West Media, and the rest of the MSM — are uttering barely a murmur of protest.
    The Abbottised AFP, a compliant mainstream media on the matter, government fealty to spivocrats and authoritarians, and Big Data.

    Hmm.

  41. rex douglas @ #2533 Monday, August 29, 2016 at 6:38 pm

    Doyley
    Jane Garrett is from the Kim Carr faction… a Bill Shorten supporter

    I understand she was from the right and switched.
    Then she pissed off those on the left who supported her when she resigned from Cabinet causing embarrassment to the Govt.
    I doubt she will be there after the next election.

  42. Oh! The wonder of it all. Various and sundry (comedy act) are possible to be playing at a siege, riot or domestic occurrence at a venue near you. The NSW police could not undertake the same mock training as the army because (?). The NSW police should not under any circumstance be provided with a variety of weapons, vehicles, communication equipment, explosive training because (?).
    Appropriate advise from FBI, CIA, BBQ or whoever could be sought and probably is. Journalists could also add their invaluable assistance with fanciful stories from time to time.
    High ranking military officers could also let us know why using Australian military on Australian soil is an excellent idea. The extreme number of terrorist acts lately makes quick action imperative.
    Appropriate advice from Border Force as to the appropriate medals to be issued needs to be taken. Additional communication advice should also be sought from the Chinese military.
    Marx brothers films could and should be used as training aids. Immediate issue of FRED and rations kept ready to go, steak, eggs and chips for preference.
    Any changes of tense etc are complete due to insanity of the Gerbils. No responsibility at all from the writer. I must change my gravatar soon to protect my identity.

  43. I don’t know about the Victorian ALP but know that quite a few Labor bigwigs from other states are pretty unhappy with Andrews for (according to them) losing them the last election.

  44. Well done NTers!

    Female parliamentarians have won 10 of the 19 seats that have been called in the Northern Territory’s weekend election, which Labor won in a landslide.
    So far seven members of the predicted 18-seat Labor government are female, with another three tipped to join them. Votes are still being tallied for the 25-seat legislative assembly – six remain in doubt.

    Women only make up 32% of politicians federally despite a record number (73) of female politicians being elected at the latest federal election.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/ginarushton/australias-first-female-majority-government-is-on-its-way?utm_term=.xy84MvqD6l#.yamAlb9B2d

  45. Guy Rundle also posted a very telling tale about how the ‘Free Speech, Repeal 18C’ crowd roll today in Crikey:

    The Oz goes feral over 18C

    On 18C, and not the least bit funny at all, is a front-page story by Hedley Thomas, on the QUT 18C complaint, initiated by an administration officer, Cindy Prior, against several students. The Oz has been using this case as a battering ram against 18C for several weeks now — with increasing obsessiveness, as the government insists 18C won’t be re-opened.
    Now, they’ve taken it to a new pitch: publicising the psychiatric assessments of Prior as the centre of a 2000 word story. Since Prior alleges PTSD arising from the incident, based on existing trauma arising from racism, there’s plenty for Thomas to work with, and which I don’t intend to repeat here. Suffice to say, that if Prior is genuinely suffering from PTSD, which two of the three examiners appear to agree with, having her full psychological assessments splashed over the front page of the Oz is not going to help. The Oz would no doubt reply that the documents are public — but there’s a big difference between them being public in a set of legal papers and splashed over the front of a broadsheet.

    This is a nuclear-level attack on someone that the Oz has dogged for months, constructing her as a target for relentless attack. They haven’t done anything like it since they launched an equally deranged assault against UTS academic Larissa Behrendt, hinged on a bad-taste tweet. Strange how it’s indigenous women with a profile who come in for this no-holds barred treatment, ain’t it? Someone might suggest that there was more to this than the mere cases at hand.

    Cindy Prior exercised her legal rights under a law the Oz doesn’t like. That law remains because Tony Abbott didn’t have the guts to go against the 1500+ submissions from multicultural groups who opposed the change to 18C, and which convinced him — probably accurately — that an election could be lost on the issue. The Oz doesn’t have the guts to go after such groups. In particular, it won’t challenge the Jewish community peak bodies, who, reliably right-of-centre on foreign policy, nevertheless came out against the law. So it attacks the powerless, and finds a scapegoat for right-wing failure of nerve.

    The idea that public interest is served by exposing, in detail, the psychological assessments of one individual – when those assessments actually show her to be suffering the ailments she claims — is laughable. If the aim is to create sympathy for an anti-18C position among wavering people, I suspect the Oz has badly overshot the mark. The whole story has a sleazy air of sadism and hate about it. Isn’t there anyone remaining at the editorial centre of the Oz with a human dimension remaining? Someone to get a group of culture warriors with a dose of cabin fever? Probably not. They’ll mount these public attacks until they push someone to self-harm or worse. They will eventually get a scalp. Literally.

    Coincidentally, one of the many CLP MPs to lose their seats in the Saturday NT election was Bess Price, the NT businesswoman who had been the subject of Behrendt’s very funny tweet. The Oz et al feted Price as the bold new future of etc, against the culture of entitlement, etc. Sadly, Price lost her seat with a swing against her of 35%. Yeah, you read that right. Her response? “For me as an Aboriginal person, I’m so disappointed in the other Aboriginal voters.” That’s the sort of entitlement attitude the Oz comes down on hard. I’m sure we’ll see mention of it any day now.
    Poor persecuted ‘freethinkers’

    Finally in the 18C follies, we have what must be the lamest attempt at self-martyrdom ever from, of course, Jennifer Oriel in today’s op-ed section. Sing, little bird! “Since Australian freethinkers risk punishment under section 18C of the Racial Discrimination Act for telling the truth about Islamism, I will …” Ha. Jennifer, they didn’t come for Planet Janet Albrechtsen when she reversed an academic’s findings to erroneously accuse young European Muslims of being gang rapists. Since you’re just a Discount Factory Seconds version of Planet, I doubt they’ll be coming for you.

  46. Slightly out of context but this quote from Ms Finocchiaro sums it up for me.

    “I haven’t thought about anything to be honest.”

    Family made a motza out of the sale of Commonwealth buildings circa John Howard era.

  47. diogenes @ #2543 Monday, August 29, 2016 at 6:50 pm

    I don’t know about the Victorian ALP but know that quite a few Labor bigwigs from other states are pretty unhappy with Andrews for (according to them) losing them the last election.

    They exaggerate.
    The Libs would have beaten it up, with their willing accomplices, no matter what stage things were at.

  50. FFS – just watched the Project where they interviewed Penny Wong….apparently the Coalition have a mandate as they won the election and should support the plebiscite; and not have to wait another 3/6/9 years.

    It is not Labor’s fault same sex marriage is not happening – the politics of this is downright disgusting.
    The project interviewed Penny Wong who obviously has an investment in the debate and ripped in to her. Very disappointing reporting from the media, I usually defend the Project as one MSM outlet that has a crack and has some critical analysis.

    The divisive nature of the plebiscite was not raised and it was all about Labor not supporting a f…d process.

    Politics sometimes is just RUBBISH

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