Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential Research records no change on two-party preferred, indifference as to the Australian Building and Construction Commission, and very strong support for a royal commission into banking.

This week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnightly average finds the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 39%, with Labor, Greens and Nick Xenophon Team steady at 37%, 10% and 4%, but two-party preferred is unchanged at 52-48 in favour of Labor. Other questions record 71% saying they gave their name and address when filling out the census, 6% saying they did not do so, and 23% saying they did not fill out the census, although one wonders if the sample might be skewed towards the sort of person who doesn’t mind filling out surveys of one kind or another. Also: 32% support the re-establishment of the Australian Building and Construction Commission and 18% with 28% opting for neither, after a question which sought to explain the situation to respondents; 35% rate the issue important, and 40% not important; and 64% supporting a royal commission into banking versus only 13% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,126 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Colton @ 3542 previous thread.
    This may be unwise, but my understanding of the moderator’s guidelines nowhere says people can’t comment on others posts. This in relation to you wanting to know why Nicole commented on a discussion between yourself and Bemused.
    I’ve frequented this blog since before the Palmer blog was shut down in the face of a descent into vitriol and abuse and it’s come close here of late, though that blog certainly had some rusted on right wingers contributing to the furore.

  2. Interesting to see that around 30% have either not filled in the census , or have done so but left their name/address off.
    Be interesting to know what other questions people have been refusing to answer. I wonder whether the ABS will ever tell us! Pretty hard not to if they give the usual public data output!
    Chances of this census being seen as next to useless by social scientists & demographers are growing daily!

  3. Boris
    I think MG is half owned by investors. I can’t see why they clawed back $200 M from the farmers and then paid out $110M in dividends if they are a coop.

  4. One area, I note, hasn’t changed from Abbott’s time as PM: we still don’t have a government capable of accepting any responsibility when something goes wrong. The Census debacle should be sheeted home squarely at the feet of Turnbull and Co, but so far they’ve been allowed to get away with blaming everyone else.

    Abbott promised “no surprises, no excuses” but did exactly that and was (rightly) attacked from all quarters.

    Interestingly, although Turnbull’s now doing it himself the criticism is far more muted. I assume it’s because the CPG are still giving him the benefit of the doubt, but I would have thought it would lead to the wider conclusion that such behaviour/mindset is actually just in the DNA of the right-wing.

    It would be really nice if someone actually called the bastards out on this sort of thing once in a while, because those turkeys who are still voting for Xmas obviously need help to get the penny to drop; namely, that the LNP are not (and never have been) interested in improving the lives of ordinary people. They are government for the toffs and the spivs, by the toffs and the spivs.

    Treating people like imbeciles and blaming others for your own failings are part of that mindset.

  5. “It appears we’ve lost Morgan for good.”

    Is that right! Wow!
    The last one of theirs I saw looked pretty weird,I’ll admit.
    Have they completely “quit the field” or are they limiting it to “fee for service” customers?

  6. There’s a frickin big crater over on that last thread, and a tiny ant of a man digging around at the bottom of it…

  7. πŸ˜†
    cpyne: In the 43rd Parliament the Coalition ALWAYS paired ill MPs or MPs facing family emergencies. #auspol #45thParliament

  8. Anyone know if the Libs are still rumbling about challenging the Herbert result in the CDR? You’d think they’d be crazy to, but somehow that doesn’t seem to altogether dispense with the possibility!
    When is the “cut off date” for any challenge?

  9. The pairs decision sets the tone for the parliament. Labor had pairs under Gillard so I can’t see why there shouldn’t be pairs now as long as the MP is on approved government business.

  10. Only 4% of Greens voters think that winning gold medals at the Olympic games is ‘very important’.

    I’m so proud of you guys.

  11. Bad move to say ‘no’ to pairing.

    What happens next time when the roles are reversed and the ALP are in government with a 1 seat majority and the Libs just say “no” like Burke has?

    It’s just another little step towards making parliament even less functional than it has been, and the ALP are the ones contributing this time. Bravo, not.

  12. I’ve been out in the car so I’ve missed most of todays to-and-fro on PB.

    However I did learn the following:

    – Shock jocks Hadley and Smith currently have an obsession with toilets of the squat variety.

    – Kalisch, he of #census fail, is the head of an independent statutory body and only a vote of Parliament can get rid of him (Malcolm Farr at ). So Turnbull’s threat of “heads will roll” is empty rhetoric.

    – The paper copy of the OZ (seen at Hungry Jacks) is currently a mish-mash of nothing much, with a front page article on the evils of teaching 5 year olds about something to do with gender roles.

    – the front page of the paper copy of the DT has a grainy b&w photo of Baird with a Hitler moustache drawn in black texta. (Story is about Sam Neill accusing Baird of “sucking the life out of Sydney” with pub lock out laws and greyhound racing ban.) The moustache is not apparent on the digital image of the front page).

    – Xenophon wants the government to reintroduce that old Country Party ploy of free school milk to help the dairy farmers. Having been forced to drink rancid milk left out in the sun when at school, I would not wish this on any child.

  13. I am up for kinder and gentler…

    Ignore Pyne.
    Abbott used pairs power to convey a constant sense of chaos.
    As ye sow…
    That said Turnbull can turn to 5 xbenchers for pairs purposes.
    I can’t see a pairs problem for Turnbull

  14. Got a corrected tweet.

    Shows number in both Houses not just one.
    lanesainty: – 1st parli with a clear marriage equality majority in Sen & HoR
    – 1st parli where govt took plebiscite to election

  15. Interesting points made by Tony Bourke regarding the pairing issue –

    Mr Burke said Labor would test the Government’s one-seat majority every time an MP was away.

    “Malcolm Turnbull has told his own party room and told the Australian public he believes his government has a working majority in its own right,” he said.

    “He’s said they’ve got a working majority, he’s said this is not a problem, and so we’ll hold him to his word.”

    Senior Government Minister Christopher Pyne responded on Twitter to the Opposition’s rejection of pairing, saying the system was crucial for MPs during times of family emergencies.

    Mr Burke said the only time a pairing arrangement had been in place was for the hung parliament under former Labor prime minister Julia Gillard.

    He said it was not normal practise for a majority government.

    “The House of Representatives normally doesn’t have pairs, with the exception of a hung parliament,” he said.

    “That’s the only time that’s happened.”

  16. All that hate from the last thread has given me energy! I suspect I could roundhouse kick every last one of you jive turkeys and knock the teeth out of your skulls ’bout now, alas, I value my pretty hair too much.

    I hope Labor can keep this up – Gooooooooo Labor *shakes Pom poms*

  17. Dio
    One person was denied a pair to attend a funeral. A mother was denied a pair to be with her sick child. The lstter was reversed when the public got wind of the degree to which Abbott was prepared to go and there was an uproar. A minister was denied a pair to attend an important international meeting.
    Pyne is lying.

  18. Good afternoon all,

    As Tony Burke has pointed out pairing is not a usual occurrence in a majority term of government. Turnbull has stated more than once he has a stable working majority so let us see how it unfolds.

    If I do recall re the hung parliament very few times did Abbott allow a pair.

    Turnbull will have to manage his stable and strong working majority the best he can.


  19. Unfortunately those graphics assume a conscience vote.

    I would like to know what would actually happen given thr Libs not alliwing a conscience vote.

    Anyone have an informed opinion?

  20. If George Christensen asked for a pair would it need two Labor MPs to oblige?

    Oh come on, that’s not fair.

    Most Labor MPs are reasonably slim.

  21. CC

    With Labor moving legislation for a conscience vote the question will be for the LNP. Why not?

    No idea of what will happen but the pressure is starting to build on the LNP already.

  22. So because Malcolm has been a smart arse talking about his huuuuuuuuuge majority, then Labor should be dicks about pairing proving they are no better than Abbott when an opportunity to cause chaos arises?

  23. It’s quite simple. When parliament begins Shorten and Burke should ask the government just why pairs should be granted. Make them squirm and show their hypocrisy in public.

  24. BB,

    Colton is my real name.
    You probably know me better from over at the PUB where I post under the name Stony Habbott, Cheers πŸ™‚

  25. On the contrary, I remember the new Abbott government played extremely hard ball regarding pairs – especially in the early days of Abbott’s time. A little later I sense even Abbott realised how stupid this move was. I suspect Labor is making a point here and for the good day-to-day running of the House, there will be some accommodation.

  26. Guytaur,
    It seems to me that 6-9 Libs would have to cross the floor. It boils down to whether Turnbull dares to not threaten them. I’d say a few will, but not enough. I hope I’m wrong.

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