Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

No change on voting intention from Essential Research, but Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings improve slightly after post-election dip.

No change in the two-party preferred reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average this week, with Labor maintaining a lead of 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 40% and Labor, the Greens and the Nick Xenophon Team are steady on 37%, 10% and 4%. Monthly leadership ratings find Malcolm Turnbull recovering slightly from his post-election dip, with approval up one to 38% and disapproval down five to 43%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down two to 37% and steady at 41%. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is up from 39-31 to 40-30. Other questions find opinion finely balanced on the effect on Australia of “globalisation” (29% gained, 29% lost, 18% neither). Forty per cent of respondents were ready to subscribe to the frankly idiotic view that “Australian trade with other countries” causes Australia to lose more jobs than it gains, with only 28% providing the correct and obvious answer. The poll also finds 45% approving of the census keeping names and addresses versus 39% disapproving; 47% saying the state of the economy is getting worse, with only 13% saying it’s getting better and 25% saying the recent interest rate cut will make them better off versus 29% for worse off.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,566 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. adrian @ #3323 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 10:40 am

    ‘I found his apparent attitude to the Nauru particularly offensive.’
    Me too. Next time you should try a wooden mask that doesn’t allow you to see or hear, as your tin foil hat was clearly inadequate for the job. I can lend you one if you like.
    Incidentally Hunt’s overbearing and ever so sincere concern for the lives of those lost at sea was almost as nauseating as Robert’s comments.

    Mr. Hunt reminds me of a couple of things.
    1. It used to be said of country singers that once you have mastered the art of appearing sincere then the world is your oyster.
    2. An old boss of mine, a little guy, very bright and quiet. Said of one of the officers in his RAF squadron. Hunt, the c**t, the little runt what ought to be the adjutant.
    I am not sure how this adds to anything. I do not believe for a moment the Hunt under discussion or many of his colleagues care about drowning at sea. I would like to be wrong about this.
    BTW I love country music and would like to be able to appear sincere when usually it is apparent that I cannot remember the words of whatever song I am attempting. I blame the universe and nobody can prove me wrong. Should I stand for the next senate election? 😀
    I will try to produce a gravatar appearing as you have described with the wooden mask.

  2. Arguing with the likes of Dtt, Guytaur and Nicole is like playing chess with a pigeon.
    They will jump onto the table, flap their wings around wildly. knock down all the pieces then strut around on the board like they have won something.
    Pointless and a waste of time.
    Maybe I should ask for those three to be banned. hahaha

  3. Roberts is full of pretension and deception. He’s not clever, though he may imagine he is. He’s a transparent dissembler who will persuade no-one. He’s the accidental beneficiary of the “up-yours” vote in Queensland. H’s a living/breathing argument against PR voting systems.

  4. Lizzie

    Thank you for the link.

    If the ABF have perfected safe turnbacks I’d be most in favor of adequately resourcing them for an initial increase of boats.

    Perhaps reducing the number of new submarines could fund the ABF resources.

  5. Guytaur,

    Denier???
    Says the guy still denying he is a green supporter despite regurgitating their every stance and acting as a human stenographer for the greens party.
    I think it is called projection.
    Im glad I have a day off today. This should be fun.

  6. Colton

    You can call me Green all you like. I am no more Green than the average person.

    You dismiss the concerns of big business without even looking at the headline let alone the article.

    Last time I looked no one was accusing big business of being Green supporters.

  7. player one @ #3344 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 10:56 am

    Nicole

    Yes, true. It sure won’t help to ease the concerns of people who greatly value their privacy and are already concerned.

    What I find so amazing is the sheer gall of the ABS in lying about this from the start. They lied about their preparations, which they knew to be woefully inadequate, and then they lied about their system failure. They are still lying about that now.
    How can anyone trust anything they say?

    For the time being anyway. I value them too highly to just give up on them. If they follow through with their own procedure in the event of loss of public trust however, my trust will be half way restored. Then we shall have proper public consultation and debate, and they will amend accordingly. If they don’t follow through however, that will be a whole different ballgame.

  8. I reckon Bertrand Russel summed up Malcolm Roberts nicely without ever meeting him.

    The problem with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.
    Bertrand Russell

  9. Lizzie..

    Thanx for the article. The assumption that boat-turnbacks will work as effectively once Manus/Nauru are closed is somewhat heroic imo.

    People smugglers have become more sophisticated since Howard’s days, and with the rise in social media use & the ubiquity of mobile phones ..plus the inevitable improvements in their ability to avoid/flood the naval blockade ..the people smugglers will get some of their boats through..

    Malaysia will make the idea of attempting the dangerous sea journey less appealing to Asylum Seekers ..and together with boat-turnbacks, this policy has the best chance to succeed..

  10. Guytaur,
    So fucking what?
    I do not share your opinion.
    Get over it.
    Im not denying anything I just do not see the egregious invasion of privacy that you and others see.
    I filled out the census. I have no privacy concerns.
    You seemingly do. So what?
    That is your right.
    Once again you are looking for an argument.
    Find someone else to bore with your ravings.

  11. Bemused,

    If you are around. I linked my email to my wordpress account and picked a picture but it is still not working.
    What am i doing wrong?

  12. guytaur @ #3348 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 11:03 am

    Colton
    Wow. Just dismiss the experts view. You are as bad as Malcolm Roberts.
    I know that Nicole has put up expert views. Deny them all you like however they are expert views however you may not like that fact.
    Here is a few more.
    http://www.itnews.com.au/news/australias-big-businesses-rail-against-mandated-data-sharing-433799

    Looking good. Looking good. With business getting on board, that review and opening things up for public consultation the ABS have promised in the event of public loss of trust is looking more and more likely. Yay!!! I need a celebration song to go with that news.

  13. Guytaur,

    And you can call me a denier all you like.
    I do not take my cue from big business at any rate so their opinion on this or any other topic is irrelevant.
    You and others are worried about your privacy.
    I and others are not.
    I filled in the census.
    You have not.
    WHO GIVES A FUCK???

  14. colton @ #3366 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 11:28 am

    Bemused,
    If you are around. I linked my email to my wordpress account and picked a picture but it is still not working.
    What am i doing wrong?

    When you log onto Gravatar you will then pick or upload a picture to suit. The program will then crop it to suit and ask for some details.
    In the upper right of the screen, next to your email address, after a while your gravatar will then appear. It sometimes takes 5 or 10 minutes. I have just changed mine. I hope that helps.

  15. daretotread
    Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 10:30 am

    Roberts comments on the “guards” at Nauru was certainly extremely naive

    They weren’t naive. They were a deliberate evasion. He calls for “evidence”. When asked whether he supports an inquiry to test claims about violence on Nauru and Manus – to examine evidence – he tried to duck. He is very partial in his wish for evidence. He’s a transparent dissembler.

  16. Colton

    You are indeed a denier when you go labelling people without even reading a headline and the article.

    Published by a University Campus magazine on IT.

    Calling me Green does not make Nick Xenophon any more Green either.

  17. Hurrah! I will mow one large section of lawn today. I will not have to mow for quite a while because Freesia are starting to appear. 🙂
    That will show them damn green people (martians?).

  18. kayjay @ #3369 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 11:33 am

    colton @ #3366 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 11:28 am

    Bemused,
    If you are around. I linked my email to my wordpress account and picked a picture but it is still not working.
    What am i doing wrong?

    When you log onto Gravatar you will then pick or upload a picture to suit. The program will then crop it to suit and ask for some details.
    In the upper right of the screen, next to your email address, after a while your gravatar will then appear. It sometimes takes 5 or 10 minutes. I have just changed mine. I hope that helps.

    Yes, with all your changes you would be the resident expert.
    Colton should listen to you in preference to me. 😀

  19. bemused @ #3375 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 11:38 am

    kayjay @ #3369 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 11:33 am

    colton @ #3366 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 11:28 am

    Bemused,
    If you are around. I linked my email to my wordpress account and picked a picture but it is still not working.
    What am i doing wrong?

    When you log onto Gravatar you will then pick or upload a picture to suit. The program will then crop it to suit and ask for some details.
    In the upper right of the screen, next to your email address, after a while your gravatar will then appear. It sometimes takes 5 or 10 minutes. I have just changed mine. I hope that helps.

    Yes, with all your changes you would be the resident expert.
    Colton should listen to you in preference to me.

    I think I answered his request some time ago. However, I may have been in LALA land. I have been advised above to try a wooden mask (perhaps to suit the wooden head) to prevent lunatic attacks. One can only try. I really like the ladies hats. I have a 50,000 image program that usually only runs with Windows XP which I use. I hope it provides some amusement among the robust to and fro. Bye. 🙂

  20. Guytaur (Scott),

    Nice comeback.
    You have really put me in my place.
    You are on Twitter eh?
    You know how easily I could get all your info simply by using the info available on your twitter feed?
    That is why I find anyone using the internet as much as you do being so worried about privacy to be laughable.

    PS, my using your real first name was not and is not an attempt to dox you or anything like that. Just to point out how easily a dunce like me could find all your information despite any precautions you take.
    Would you feel safer with the govt. having that info or someone like me?
    That is why I think the privacy concerns are overrated.
    Anyone with nefarious motives could get your info easily.
    If only you were important enough for the hackers to give a shit.

  21. bemused @ #3363 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 11:24 am

    I reckon Bertrand Russel summed up Malcolm Roberts nicely without ever meeting him.

    The problem with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.
    Bertrand Russell

    Or as Yeats put it poetically in The Second Coming:

    The best lack all conviction, while the worst
    Are full of passionate intensity.

  22. With one million Aussie visitors to Bali a year, this could have massive implications.
    “Indonesia is considering a new law that would ban the production, distribution and consumption of alcohol across the country, including in Bali.”
    It would be great news for the Aussie tourism industry but would probably wipe out the Bali industry.

  23. tpof @ #3384 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 11:46 am

    bemused @ #3363 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 11:24 am

    I reckon Bertrand Russel summed up Malcolm Roberts nicely without ever meeting him.

    The problem with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.
    Bertrand Russell

    Or as Yeats put it poetically in The Second Coming:

    The best lack all conviction, while the worst
    Are full of passionate intensity.

    Come now gentlemen, we are descending into intelligent conversation. STOP before it’s too late.

  24. tpof @ #3384 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 11:46 am

    bemused @ #3363 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 11:24 am

    I reckon Bertrand Russel summed up Malcolm Roberts nicely without ever meeting him.

    The problem with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.
    Bertrand Russell

    Or as Yeats put it poetically in The Second Coming:

    The best lack all conviction, while the worst
    Are full of passionate intensity.

    Good one.
    Must add it to my collection.

  25. Colton

    You obviously can’t comprehend facts you don’t like.

    Big data is a real problem. As much as you rail against me bringing this up its a fact.

    You truly are doing trolling now.

  26. Roberts is just an extreme ideologue who believes in fairies at the bottom of the garden.

    Extreme ideologues are by definition stupid because they lack the ability to consider or process information that lies outside their extreme ideology.

    In other words their ideology is a barrier against the complexity of the world, and understanding and coming to terms with it.

    Any suggestion that Roberts is intelligent is laughable.

  27. And the mistake Brian Cox and others made last night.

    Don’t mess with an idiot, he would get you down to his level and beat you with experience.

    Unknown

  28. Arguing with the likes of Colton, Bemused, and Zoomster is like playing chess with a pigeon.

    They will jump onto the table, flap their wings around wildly. knock down all the pieces then strut around on the board like they have won something.

    Pointless and a waste of time.

    Maybe I should ask for those three to be banned. hahaha

  29. Nicole,

    Haha. Funny.
    One thing I do know is that anything I produce while ‘playing with myself’ would exhibit more intelligence than the entirety of your posts on the subject of the census.

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