The Courier-Mail has a Galaxy poll of state voting intention which has the two major parties level at 50-50 on two-party preferred, after the Liberal National Party led 52-48 in the previous poll in mid-May. However, the big news from the poll is One Nation recording a primary vote of 16%, gouging both Labor, down three to 33%, and the Liberal National Party, down six to 38%. Nonetheless, Annastacia Palaszczuk records strong personal ratings of 46% approval (up two) and 31% disapproval (down eight). Opposition Leader Tim Nicholls is up six from a soft debut showing on approval to 31%; the report doesn’t provide the disapproval rating. Palaszszuk’s lead as preferred premier is up from 44-29 to 44-26. Hopefully I’ll be able to fill in the blanks later on.
Galaxy: 50-50 in Queensland
The One Nation revival gains further steam with a new poll of state voting intention from Queensland.
24 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50 in Queensland”
Queensland continues to be terrible. Seriously if the election of Roberts can’t dissuade people from voting for One Nation, nothing will.
I am hoping 18 months on the podium making fools of themselves, with the help of social media and media coverage going against them will be enough to change this trend. PUP fell apart in no time. I hope the same happens with ON. I am in QLD too. I will be doing all I can to change minds whenever I get the chance.
Nicole, from your lips to the ears of any listening deity. Hopefully, watching these One Nation fools make total arses of themselves on Parliament floor (complete with inevitable dummy-spitting, ranting about “rigged votes” and eventual fragmentation) will persuade Queenslanders that sanity has some value when electing politicians.
I feel I should point out that we have a Labor State Govt. We can do the correct thing on the odd occasion.
Technically we have a state government in a quantum superposition of NotNewman and WhoopsWeMeantToPunishNewmanNotElectLaborMinorityGovernment rather than a Labor Government (though credit to them, they’ve done incredibly well given how badly Labor got stomped in 2012, and how unlikely it was they’d take back government).
I still think Labor made the right decision bringing compulsory preferential voting. The two systems that were different state and federally caused too much confusion and were a joke. One Nation are not certainty to give their preferences to LNP, I know they have operated in the past of directing preferences against all sitting members. Which could hurt regional Labor Mp’s, but will hurt regional LNP’s Mp as well.
Also I’m skeptical if One Nation can keep their support that high by the state next election from past trends.
One Nation vote in the Queensland state election June 14 (22.68%), but it’s senate vote in Queensland was 14.83% in the October 1998 federal election which is still a significant drop from it’s state result.
June 14 was a by-election in a relatively conservative area and Labor didn’t even run a candidate both of which probably inflates the One Nation vote relative to the state average (as captured by the Senate) so it’s probably overly optimistic to assume there support fell 8%.
Whoops , sorry didn’t realize you were talking about 1998 for both examples.
“One Nation vote in the Queensland state election June 14 (22.68%)”
Sorry I should point out that was at 1998 Queensland state election. I realized I had left that out after I posted it.
Here, Here. doGs but the joy and triumphalism at Roberts election on certain RWNJ parts of the internet is nauseating. Be interesting if they fall to bits party wise. will be an indicator of whether or not RWNJ’s can learn from experience.
Thanks to preferential voting, a nice $60 fine for not voting in local election.
This was suppose to be democratic country?
First fining peoplr for not voting second its fining people not doing census….
Yes , voting is compulsory, it’s viewed as part of your duty as a citizen of the democracy. If you wish to vote for none of the above you can get marked off and submit a blank ballot (though this is imo a bad idea, as there are surely some parties you disagree with less than others if nothing else).
One advantage to compulsory voting.
It makes it harder for government to stop people voting.
Erm. Voting was still compulsory under the optional preferential system. And you’d still get a fine for not voting. Its been like that since, what, 1906, wasn’t it?
Compulsory voting Queensland state elections was introduced in 1915, and for federal elections in 1924.
Its been floated in the media Labor could call an early election. I’m glad these media commentators are not Labor strategists.
Too many problems with that:
(1) QLD Labor claim the coffers are bare after the federal election
(2) One Nation vote is peaking right now and wield too much power in term of preferences. Better to wait for their vote to sag for the next 18 months and call the election after three years where their vote like alot minor parties (PUP) will fall from it’s previous high.
(3) Public hated Campbell Newman calling a snap election which voters were very cynical about his intentions.
(4) Labor vote is not crushing the LNP, this election is still very much into play for the LNP despite there leadership turmoil. Sportsbet still has the LNP at favorites at a $1.70 compared to Labor at $2.05.
(5) Labor would be wise to hold on to the incumbency factor, which it will benefit for going for three years.
The only positive for Labor going early is to get a majority in there own right, and also they can undo the four extra seats the LNP passed through parliament if they call the election before the redistribution. They would love these things, but there is too much to risk by going early.
QLD – LABOR’S 2016 BASKET CASE ?
In Queensland in 2016, Labor only regained one seat from seven seats lost in the 2010 election [Forde. Flynn, Leichardt, Dawson, Bonner, Brisbane, Longman] and neither of two seats lost in 2013 [Capricornia, Petrie]. 2010 might be put down to the ‘Kevin Again’ mantra being rejected resoundly in his home State and 2013 to a fiscally incompetent-wasteful Gillard train wreck and a switch back to an unpenetant K. Rudd.
Against this two election loss of 9 seats, Bill Shorten’s Labor performed better in Queensland, but nowhere near well enough, notwithstanding the ‘two elections to Government’ reality Labor faced in 2016. Longman was regained with a 2PP margin of 0.7 % (1,390 votes) and Herbert was won by Labor for the first time by 37 votes. Labor knows it must do better than win 8 of 30 QLD seats in 2019 to win a majority Government. Three easily identified factors will change the context of the next election in QLD.
First, a State election will have come and gone , giving Queenslanders a chance to punish or retain the Labor State Government before the next Federal election. At the 2015 election, Labor won 44 seats, one short of commanding a majority in the Legislative Assembly. The LNP lost 36 seats in 2015. Katter’s Australian Party won two seats, and the Independent Wellington gave confidence and supply support to Labor to form government. Unless the QLD Labor Premier has an Andrew’s -CFA brain freeze moment, State politics will be unlikely to produce a rejection of the national Labor brand. Labor lead 51-49 2PP in the most recent State Newspoll and 50/50 in Galaxy – i note the ONP PV intentions are higher than the federal election PV average for ONP in contested seats.
Secondly, the AEC will go through an electorate redistribution process in QLD before the next election. With a 4.41% projected population growth in QLD by mid 2019, seats that fall outside an electorate seat range of 94,137 -100,966 projected enrolled voters will come under AEC attention. It would be difficult to predict where and how many QLD seats will shift to a different nominally pro Labor or pro LNP position after the redistribution process, due to begin with within 30 days of December 15th this year.
Finally, we have a glimpse of what might happen in 2019 if Pauline Hanson fields candidates in every QLD HOR seat, fed by the war chest ONP got from this election and four Senators developing the ONP brand over the coming years. ONP PV and prefererence flows helped Labor win two seats and pull the 2PP margin in Flynn down to 1.0 % from 6.5% in 2016. [ONP PV Longman 9.4 ; Herbert 13.5; Flynn 17.1]. ONP contested only 12 of 30 HOR seats in QLD IN 2016. However, ONP PV average across those contested seats was 13.9 %.
The 2016 result in Leichardt mitigates against any presumption that ONP candidates fielded in every HOR seat at the next election in QLD will always win seats for Labor on the back of LNP PV leaking to Hanson et al and pro Labor ONP preference flows. The LNP PV (39.4) in Leichardt fell 5.7% in 2016. The ALP PV (28.1) fell 4.4% and One Nation got 7.5% PV. The 2PP swing against the long serving Warren Entsch was only 1.7%.
Still, if Hanson racists, bigots, rednecks and frustrated ‘protest’ voters who are none of those things give Hanson 13.9 % of the PV in 2019 across Qld, at least seven LNP HOR members will be hoping Hanson was a one hit wonder in 2016 [Forde, Capricornia, Flynn, Petrie, Dickson,Bonner, Dawson] or that the AEC is kind to them in 2017.
Labor and the Coalition may remain bullish about the ‘irrelevance’ of minor parties in public discourse but I suspect their election strategists will have to war-game the more than ‘irrelevant’ presence of the Greens in Victoria, Xenephon in South Australia and Hanson in Queensland, at least for the next two elections.
With the introduction of CPV, you can guarantee that Labor at least had already been wargaming this for years. Their are several seats in the last QLD state election they won off the back of Greens preferences given the LNP Last campaign and general distaste for Newman from almost anyone left of centre. The presence of the Greens and OPV (introduced by Labor to split the Lib / Nat vote) has been hurting them for over a decade now.
Though it will be interesting to see how this plays out in Noosa for example (where it’s a LNP / Greens contest with the LNP significantly dominating. One Nation redirecting preferences to Labor could make it LNP / Labor or stronger Labor preference flows could reduce the LNPs dominance. There’s even bizarre scenarios where One Nation poaches enough votes to make it Labor / Green (which Labor will win handily on LNP/ ONP preferences)).
“Secondly, the AEC will go through an electorate redistribution process in QLD before the next election. With a 4.41% projected population growth in QLD by mid 2019, seats that fall outside an electorate seat range of 94,137 -100,966 projected enrolled voters will come under AEC attention. ”
Which seats do you think will get most of the attention? With the resources boom deflating, one would expect that some of the seats with the most exposure to FIFO/mining would be extensively re-drawn.
The reason the LNP added 4 seats was to save 2 LNP very safe seats (read former National county ) that would have been redistributed due to shrinking population.
Elaugaufein – Which seats? (Sorry, haven’t kept up with Qld state redistribution.)
Most rural seats have shrinking (or at least stagnating) populations. Those that don’t (usually coastal) have population influxes, and are prey for the other parties (Lib, ALP. Green) as the local Nat vote is diluted.
The next NSW and Vic re-distributions will likely lose the Nats another seat per state.
Sorry, I wasn’t paying enough attention to the discussion at the time to know the specific electorates, it was just mentioned in passing to explain why the LNP had to vote for CPV (since the CPV was an amendment to that bill).
I don’t think specific seats were ever mentioned (safe LNP seats set for abolition), but given the demographics it was obvious some rural seats would need to be abolished to allow new seats to be created in the south-east. The expansion essentially allows those new south-east seats to be created without having to abolish the rural seats.
“I don’t think specific seats were ever mentioned (safe LNP seats set for abolition), but given the demographics it was obvious some rural seats would need to be abolished to allow new seats to be created in the south-east. The expansion essentially allows those new south-east seats to be created without having to abolish the rural seats.”
Yep. Rural seats of Callide, Condamine, and Nanango were in the firing line to go. The four new seats are possibly to be brought into Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast which is LNP territory.