Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

No change on voting intention from Essential Research, but Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings improve slightly after post-election dip.

No change in the two-party preferred reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average this week, with Labor maintaining a lead of 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 40% and Labor, the Greens and the Nick Xenophon Team are steady on 37%, 10% and 4%. Monthly leadership ratings find Malcolm Turnbull recovering slightly from his post-election dip, with approval up one to 38% and disapproval down five to 43%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down two to 37% and steady at 41%. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is up from 39-31 to 40-30. Other questions find opinion finely balanced on the effect on Australia of “globalisation” (29% gained, 29% lost, 18% neither). Forty per cent of respondents were ready to subscribe to the frankly idiotic view that “Australian trade with other countries” causes Australia to lose more jobs than it gains, with only 28% providing the correct and obvious answer. The poll also finds 45% approving of the census keeping names and addresses versus 39% disapproving; 47% saying the state of the economy is getting worse, with only 13% saying it’s getting better and 25% saying the recent interest rate cut will make them better off versus 29% for worse off.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,566 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Maybe we should have PB divided into two streams.

    1. People who can discuss a proposition in a calm fashion without descending into insults.
    2. People who enjoy fighting and endless arguments and think that rudeness and lack of respect is “normal”.

  2. Colton
    Can two play the game of insult. “Anything you can say i can say better” or “follow the leader”

    “Haha. Funny.

    One thing I do know is that anything I produce while ‘playing with myself’ would exhibit more intelligence than the entirety of your posts on the subject of the census.”

  3. Colton
    In case you did not understand i was DELIBERATELY reflecting back to you. You insult others then expect to get a reurn back in kind.

    Or are you in fact just an “angry white male” who enjoys abuse but goes crying to mummy when you bet it back. Especially when the person reflecting back is a woman. Shock horror!

  4. lizzie @ #3404 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 12:01 pm

    Maybe we should have PB divided into two streams.
    1. People who can discuss a proposition in a calm fashion without descending into insults.
    2. People who enjoy fighting and endless arguments and think that rudeness and lack of respect is “normal”.

    I think we need a third stream in the grey area. That’s where I’ll be.

  5. Dtt,

    Yes but what you said was not better. It was unoriginal and dated.
    It was funny the first time it was said- by me.
    Try harder next time. 😉

  6. The problem, though, Lizzie, is that “turnbacks” are also often sending people back to the countries they have fled, where many have been gaoled or worse as a result. Even those who simply end up back in Indonesia have no real hope, given that they have no legal right to work and are often victims of gross exploitation accordingly , or even to send their children to school, etc etc. Some, sadly, end up in even more appalling circumstances in Malaysia and Thailand.

    Yes, Manne, Costello et al are right about “turnbacks” making Nauru & Manus a waste of lives and money for everything apart from political fear-mongering, but sadly they do nothing to genuinely begin to deal with the real underlying human problems of the refugees themselves.

  7. Lizzie
    That would be a good idea. Only trouble is it would probably only be you and KayJay on the blog.

    We are all a bit guilty I fear.

  8. Barnaby Joyce says he will push the bosses of milk giant Murray Goulburn to return money to dairy farmers during talks with him and Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull on Tuesday.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/barnaby-joyce-calls-for-justice-and-transparency-for-dairy-farmers-in-murray-goulburn-talks-20160815-gqt9bw.html

    Murray Goulburn is a cooperative, owned by the dairy farmers.
    The farmers vote for the board and could force a vote to return, ie pay a dividend, to the owners the farmers.
    The board can return money via a dividend, may have to borrow to do so or dissolve the co-op and return leftovers, if any.

    This bloke is our deputy PM?

  9. “The problem with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.
    Bertrand Russell”

    thanks for that bemused. If I ever have a gravestone (I’d prefer to be scattered or composted), I want that on it.

    Best science teacher I ever had constantly used the language “that’s the current theory, but it might be wrong. How would you test whether it was wrong?” and “on the balance of probabilities, the best current science tells us…..”, as well as discussing alternative theories. Some students found it confusing (“but you just said…”) and we didn’t get through the whole syllabus, but I loved it.

    smartest bloke I ever worked with constantly raised the possibility that we might be wrong, asked us to consider how we could know we were wrong, and what the implications of us being wrong would be. It makes for much better decision making.

    both approaches lead to the conclusion that urgent action on climate change is needed. Even though the science strongly suggest the only real ‘debate’ within climate science is whether it is going to take decades or 1-2 centuries for the earth system to not be able to sustain humans and most current ecosystems if we keep putting fossil carbon into the atmosphere, it is a fool who decides there is no empirical evidence and no need to at least show caution – the implications of being wrong about ‘no evidence’ are far far worse (and less probably) than if the science continues to prove to be correct.

  10. Colton

    It was never funny nor intelligent. Just plain out simple abuse. Just abusive without wit or wisdom, civil conduct or even competent research. No rose tinted gloss. My unoriginal reflection has as much or more relevance.

    What is extremely funny is you reacting as you have. Wowsers matey! If you dish out abuse have at least the humility and brain bower to smile wryly and say fair enough, that which I give shall be returned in kind.

  11. Dtt,

    No. Both my Mum and Dad were killed when I was 14 but cheers for bringing that up.

    I can give as good as I get. I welcome the back and forth.

    I do not think anyone would accuse me of being unable to take it.

    Infact this all started when Nicole butted into a discussion that did not involve her and called me a sook.

    One thing I can guarantee is the likes of you, guytaur and Nicole will never say anything that will upset me because you are simply anonymous nobodies online.
    That is why I was so offended by the stupid letter penned by one of your silly green mates last night asking for certain posters to actually be banned.
    Im from the old school- If you can not handle the heat get out of the kitchen.

    But please, do keep trying to one up me. I can guarantee you will Fail and fail badly.

  12. Dtt,
    Yes, it was funny and clever.
    Your response lacked originality and showed your complete lack of humour and inability to think on your feet.
    And better still it drew a predictable and tired response from you.
    Haha.

    Isnt there an ebola epidemic you could be fighting against? hahaha

  13. DTT

    I’m just glad that compared with comments in the rest of social media, which I avoid whenever possible, PB is sane and polite (and most bludgers show intelligence). I tips me lid to William.

  14. Colton

    I will accept your denials but I am pointing out that is what it sounded like. As you new when you posted it as proven by the first sentence.

    You then followed up with I hope you get hacked.

    Thats threatening bullying behaviour.

  15. adrian @ #3402 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 11:58 am

    Nice KayJay, but I still prefer mine.

    daretotread @ #3412 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 12:09 pm

    Lizzie
    That would be a good idea. Only trouble is it would probably only be you and KayJay on the blog.
    We are all a bit guilty I fear.

    We can only represent our own views (which means our attachment to whatever way we look at the world). I am sure that I would like to have a drink with Duncan – yes that Duncan and he could have whatever and I have discovered pink lemonade. A get together in a tavern would be extremely interesting barring, of course the odd punch or kick. Doesn’t Lizzie do a nice “sigh”? Time for my afternoon nap. 🙂

  16. oh Guytaur,

    You are a sook. It isnt cyber bullying if all the information is online.
    All put online by yourself I might add.
    But yes, it would be very easy for me to find out a lot of your information If I was so inclined but I am not interested.
    That is why once again IMO the privacy concerns regard the census are way overblown.

  17. Colton

    You keep going on like this and I will ask probably successfully for you to be banned.

    There is Federal Communications law on threats over electronic services. Asking for you to be banned because you fail to look how the person on the receiving end feels just shows you lack understanding.

  18. I really find that “White Male” gravatar quite offensive. It is both racist and sexist.
    Could you please change it to “Colourless Person”?

  19. I’m a few pages behind and I’m sure it must have been mentioned before, but, on politicians’ salaries, why aren’t they, their offices and staff subject to the “efficiency dividend”? Or, are they?

  20. the angry white male as a demographic is funny and true.

    used to be the immigrants taking our jobs and the natives going to take our backyards, then the sheilas got in on the act, wanting equal pay, the right to say no, paid! leave to look after kids, management positions and respect!!

    some blokes could not and still cannot handle it, where are the government groups and laws looking after white males they wail.

    other think they are progressive and agree that change and equality should come but in a gradual nature and supervised.

    you see their comments, some open like abbott, women just not built or able to do male tasks, others taking the howard approach, in time in time, some see it like kipplings white male burden, others that some women have talent, but can be promoted too quick and are not ready for the job, needing the wise hand of a wise white male to guide them befiore thay are ready.

  21. rod hagen @ #3410 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 12:08 pm

    The problem, though, Lizzie, is that “turnbacks” are also often sending people back to the countries they have fled, where many have been gaoled or worse as a result. Even those who simply end up back in Indonesia have no real hope, given that they have no legal right to work and are often victims of gross exploitation accordingly , or even to send their children to school, etc etc. Some, sadly, end up in even more appalling circumstances in Malaysia and Thailand.
    Yes, Manne, Costello et al are right about “turnbacks” making Nauru & Manus a waste of lives and money for everything apart from political fear-mongering, but sadly they do nothing to genuinely begin to deal with the real underlying human problems of the refugees themselves.

    The “only if safe to do so” is the most important part of any turn backs as I see it. Otherwise I could never support it. Some should never be turned back (refoulement – Is there a better word for this?). Sri Lanka and West Papua comes to mind. I was mortified when Abbott gave navy patrol vessels to Sri Lanka to prevent people fleeing. What a flippin psycho.

    My take from a position of no expertise, so just streaming consciousness. Proper regional solution to deal with the route from Indonesia to Australia. Bring them here and bring them safe. Provide an alternative avenue so they don’t take a boat but stick to policy of turnbacks when safe to do so to hammer home not that way. Increased quotas that include increased quota processed closer to home as part of this regional solution. In regards to boats coming from source countries however, this should be dealt with differently and according to our commitments having signed the convention. Just sharing thoughts as I know it’s a complex issue.

  22. Guytaur,

    Seriously. I never threatened to or hoped for others to dox your information.
    You are making shit up.
    My point was that even a computer illiterate like myself could use your twitter feed and corresponding IP address to find out all your information.
    I think the fact I found out your real name in about 15 seconds proves my point that online you have no privacy.
    That is not to say that peoples personal information should be available to any one who wants it.
    Just that too many people spend their days on twitter, facebook etc without seemingly any worries their extremely personal info, pics etc are easily available to companies for marketing purposes or to some russian teenage hacker but shreik and wail about the govt having the very same info.
    I would trust the checks and balances in place from the ABS and other govt. departments than I would billion dollar corporations like Twitter and Facebook.

  23. Colton

    I repeat. I accept your denials. However you must understand how it feels to be on the receiving end of such statements as that made by you.

    Calling people a sook for pointing out how that feels just shows the lack of empathy of the bully

  24. An interesting non-technical take on #CensusFail …

    http://zadroagency.com.au/strategic-communications/the-real-culprit-behind-censusfail

    The 2016 Australian Census has widely been labelled an unmitigated disaster. The backlash has been swift and severe. Leaving technical issues out of it – the learning from a communications perspective is transparency, timeliness and planning.
    The ABS should have been honest from the start, developed a clear strategy for communicating changes and what to do in the event of disruption, rather than keeping people in the dark and letting frustration win out.

    While catching up on the recent posts, I saw someone ask WTTE “who cares?” about the census. Well, according to Essential, about 39% of the electorate seems to care. That’s more voters than currently intend giving their first preference to the ALP, so I find the attitude of the ALP stalwarts here a little difficult to comprehend.

  25. colton @ #3417 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 12:15 pm

    Dtt,
    No. Both my Mum and Dad were killed when I was 14 but cheers for bringing that up.
    I can give as good as I get. I welcome the back and forth.
    I do not think anyone would accuse me of being unable to take it.
    Infact this all started when Nicole butted into a discussion that did not involve her and called me a sook.
    One thing I can guarantee is the likes of you, guytaur and Nicole will never say anything that will upset me because you are simply anonymous nobodies online.
    That is why I was so offended by the stupid letter penned by one of your silly green mates last night asking for certain posters to actually be banned.
    Im from the old school- If you can not handle the heat get out of the kitchen.
    But please, do keep trying to one up me. I can guarantee you will Fail and fail badly.

    I never tried to upset you lol. The only reason I called you a sook was because you were going off your nana calling someone else a sook for going off theirs in their own fashion. I just found it funny.

  26. Colton

    Use your brain. Think.

    My perception is not yours. Empathy is putting yourself in someone else’s shoes. I just want you to admit you should have pursued the issue in a different way.

  27. Guytaur,

    I will add that it is because I know how easy personal info can be obtained by third parties online is the very reason I am not on facebook or twitter and do not allow my wife to put pics of our kids on her public profile.
    You have no privacy online despite what you tell yourself.
    If someone wants your info they can get it.
    Luckily people like you and I are probably not high on any hackers target list for obvious reasons.

  28. ‘While catching up on the recent posts, I saw someone ask WTTE “who cares?”’

    I can sort of understand why people don’t care, as people don’t care about a lot of things that I consider important.

    What I don’t understand is the antagonism expressed by some of these people.
    What’s it to you if people do care?

  29. Colton

    Again you ignore facts you don’t like. As I said I filled out the Census.

    I am not on Facebook precisely for the reason you outline. My twitter account does not give you much unless you breach the law and illegally hack into it.

    Thats very different to compulsory government data collection.

  30. Colton

    OH and I are not on facebook and twitter for same reasons. We are not on hackers list of priority either. having said that, all three of my adult kids are more than happy to be on facebook.

  31. Adrian

    What I don’t understand is the antagonism expressed by some of these people.
    What’s it to you if people do care?

    Yes, I agree. It’s hard to understand. It is classic denial. But why?

  32. Colton

    Just so you know

    Sook = How dare you have feelings in response to my words or actions you crybaby.

    Thats why its victim blaming

  33. KayJay and Lizzie

    Yes I would add BK and also David WH to you nice people crowd because they are invariably polite. Socrates and Diogenes also can go over.

    I suppose the rest of us have to swim in our own cess pool.

  34. Reply:

    Mike Carlton ‏@MikeCarlton01 · 18s19 seconds ago
    I did warn this morning that today’s Nutter Level is set to Extreme…

    Bernard Keane @BernardKeane Hilarious that @LyleShelton keeps talking about freedom of speech but wants the power to force broadcasters to air his propaganda.

  35. adrian @ #3440 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 12:38 pm

    ‘While catching up on the recent posts, I saw someone ask WTTE “who cares?”’
    I can sort of understand why people don’t care, as people don’t care about a lot of things that I consider important.
    What I don’t understand is the antagonism expressed by some of these people.
    What’s it to you if people do care?

    Yes, that is what I find difficult to understand too. I was talking to a friend outside of PB about this yesterday as I get why people support it but I don’t get either why they don’t get others not supporting it. If we can simply acknowledge the divide and open it up to public debate and consensus, that would be a fair thing wouldn’t it? You would think so living in a democracy and all.

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