The final Ipsos poll for Fairfax has the two parties back at 50-50, after Labor led 51-49 a fortnight ago, although Labor maintains its 51-49 lead on respondent-allocated preferences. The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 13% for the Greens (down one). On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is up two on approval to 49% and down one on disapproval to 41%, while Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 50%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 48-34 to 49-35. The poll of 1377 respondents was conducted Monday to Wednesday.
The News Corporation tabloids have a Galaxy poll of 1768 respondents which give the Coalition a lead of 51-49 on two-party preferred, compared with 50-50 in a similar poll a week ago. The primary votes are 43% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one).
Today’s Advertiser has two seat polls from Galaxy Research, which find Kate Ellis leading Liberal challenger 53-47 in Adelaide, and Mark Butler reported as leading 76-33 in Port Adelaide (although this really should add up to 100), with the Nick Xenophon Team presumably running third in both cases since the report doesn’t say otherwise. The samples on the polls are a little over 500.
Three polls have emerged from Campaign for Australian Aid, conducted last Thursday to Saturday by Community Engagement – a national one, and seat polls from Sturt and Higgins. The Higgins poll is particularly interesting in that it suggests Kelly O’Dwyer faces a very serious threat from the Greens. Greens candidate Jason Ball leads Labor’s Carl Katter by 26% to 21%, and O’Dwyer’s 44% is low enough that it would be touch and go for her after preferences. The Sturt poll has the Nick Xenophon Team clearing the first hurdle by outpolling Labor 21% to 18%, but with Christopher Pyne’s primary vote of 48% being high enough to keep him safe. The national poll of 861 respondents has primary vote results of Coalition 40%, Labor 31% and Greens 11%.
Lizzie
[Did I read that Frydenberg will be one of the commentators on ABC Saturday night? Or somewhere else? I can’t imagine him being polite, tactful, even-handed, adult (add appropriate adjective) so whichever way it goes he won’t be pleasant to watch.]
If he is I will have to ensure my other half doesn’t see him. Nasty comments have already been made about his baldness seen live compared to his more hirsute appearance in photos. Not that we would be missing much. He is a true dullard who is only capable even in person of only repeating mantra lines when challenged on the fiscal record of the LNP.
Well I have relocated to the heart of Lyne to watch the election with my rusted on father in law. Virtually no signage anywhere, tho a dedicated bunch of half a dozen ALP and 3 Nats, 2 Greens outside the prepolling centre main street Forster.
There will be some interesting analysis of the demographic of pre-pollers -22% or 2.2million is a high number. Like the postals, anyone with the resources to be out of the electorate on Saturday is possibly trending conservative (Mari and myself excluded :).
Otherwise politically engaged people would also vote early. 46/54 on Essential, and i know Reachtel was doing ‘have you voted already’ polling, maybe released at 6pm tonight?
Since we’re entertaining visions borne of a nasty crack pipe… how about the SNP (60), LDP (10) join up with 120 anti-Corbynites and 130 anti-Goveites to form a “what referendum?” govt of national unity in the UK for the remainder of this parliament with Alex Salmond as PM…
Lizzie:
Frydenberg is one of the better Libs I reckon. Probably be no worse than listening to Sales, Uhlmann, Jennett and co. We can always turn the volume down. The graphics will tell the story anyway.
rex douglas @ #892 Friday, July 1, 2016 at 4:15 pm
Hey Rex, are you going to start up ‘Treason Watch’ again?
Re predictions: I’m still sticking to my 82 – 62 – 6. I appreciate the anecdotal stuff from various people here, but the combined evidence of the polls and the behaviour/temperament of various pollies continues to make me feel that Labor will only pick up a small bag of seats, and that most of the independent/minor party challenges will fall short.
My six for others are: Denison, Kennedy, Melbourne, Indi, Mayo (NXT) and Cowper (Oakeshott). Xenophon today didn’t seem confident of winning too many seats, but he might have been cagey. The three he confessed to having a chance in were Mayo, Barker and Grey, so I guess they are all possibilities. I don’t recall seeing any polling information re Batman, Higgins or Melbourne Ports, so really can’t hazard a guess on these three. Perhaps they are in play too. But I reckon 6 is a safe bet.
The seats Labor is most likely to pick up in my view are: Barton, Paterson, Eden-Monaro, Page, Hindmarsh, Solomon and Lyons. Beyond those, I don’t feel very confident at all (and I’m not that confident about Barton). I guess they might get one or two in WA and one or two in Qld, but remain to be fully convinced. So I’m going with 62, but it could be less.
I hope I’m wrong.
Expat, anything to avoid making good on the people’s will? The people are always right! Any Conservative leader who doesn’t reject the EUs freedom of movement is toast.
Windhover Friday, July 1, 2016 at 4:21 pm
Lizzie
[Did I read that Frydenberg will be one of the commentators on ABC Saturday night?
He is a true dullard who is only capable even in person of only repeating mantra lines when challenged on the fiscal record of the LNP.
************************************************
A worthy learned apprentice to Cormannator then ????
Hey WillBowe, I just had a terrible thought. If the AEC tell all the polling places in SA to do the usual indicative 2PP count on a Lib vs Lab basis, we really won’t have clue about the outcome in any seats in SA on Saturday night will we? Any chance that they could be a bit more subtle and tell the OICs to do an indicative 3-way count between Lib, Lab and NXT? (Then, if they had time after totalling that count they could do 2PP counts as relevant in each Division – but if they didn’t have time for that at least we’d know who was coming 1st 2nd and 3rd in each Division and could make intelligent predictions.)
Sub-s 274(2A) seems to permit that; it says to “conduct a count of preference votes …that… will best provide an indication of the candidate most likely to be elected for the Division”. But they haven’t shown much flexibility in the past, have they?
MB
You are wrong. Look at the tweet by Rob Harris I posted earlier. Its a hung parliament too close to call and Labor are confident and the LNP are not .
Both agree change of seats will be 10 to 15 going solely on memory. Thats a big range but its not a good look for the LNP
Polling sample & accuracy
If sample size is 1377 as few as 7 votes not representing overall electorate intention make a 0.5% prediction ridiculous .
Do pollsters re poll their last sample immediately after the election to see how it compares with last pre election poll & actual outcome?
Polling is a very dark art
https://www.crikey.com.au/2016/07/01/election-night-drinking-game/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CrikeyDaily+%28Crikey+Daily%29
Or how to get really drunk this weekend.
MB
Briggs getting the boot from mayo would be tremendous.
Ross,
Turnbull as both sitting PM and Leader of the Party with the most seats would have the first option of forming a Government.
But, what happens if he can’t?
The GG would ask Shorten who would advise that he can’t form a stable Government.
After that, it’s “Bedroom Mazurka”!
Jerusalem_Post: US judge blocks Mississippi law allowing denial of services to LGBT people https://t.co/DymLTm1ZCF #BreakingNews
Greensborough Growler
Friday, July 1, 2016 at 4:34 pm
Another election?
ChristineMilne: Vote Green Jason Ball for Higgins. Be part of the biggest upset and sea change of election. Go @greensjason #auspol
Actually, I think if Turnbull or Shorten can’t form government, then the next step would be another election.
I would suggest that the chance of the GG allowing an independent to attempt to form a unity government in the event that neither main party can command the confidence of the lower house is roughly similar to a whelk’s chance of surviving a supernova, and I would further suggest that the odds of anyone in Labor or the Coalition seriously considering such an offer to be several orders of magnitude lower than that.
[J341983
Friday, July 1, 2016 at 4:37 pm
Actually, I think if Turnbull or Shorten can’t form government, then the next step would be another election.]
Give the Greens a run off the bench.
j341983 @ #918 Friday, July 1, 2016 at 4:37 pm
IF, but it’ll be a house-only election. I’m thinking late August, early September.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2016/07/final-poll-and-campaign-roundup-was-it.html
Final Poll And Campaign Roundup: Was It Really So Bad Now?
currently 2PP 50.7 to Coalition (79-65-6)
Apparently the final ReachTEL is “a ripper”. I’ll be out for a few hours so commentary on it will be slow.
Polling is not all it was especially when methodology is hidden.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/21/opinion/sunday/whats-the-matter-with-polling.html?_r=0
Election polling is in near crisis, and we pollsters know. Two trends are driving the increasing unreliability of election and other polling in the United States: the growth of cellphones and the decline in people willing to answer surveys. Coupled, they have made high-quality research much more expensive to do, so there is less of it. This has opened the door for less scientifically based, less well-tested techniques. To top it off, a perennial election polling problem, how to identify “likely voters,” has become even thornier.
KB – “ripper”? Either a blowout or a tie I assume.
Higgins has been such a strong source of Lib pollies that it would be marvellous if Kelly O’D was thrown out. She’s just a parrot of Lib policy. Like Frydenberg. So in this case, if Jason Ball has a chance – Go Greens.
@Meher Baba
Batman is almost certainly Green, Higgins is a coinflip between Greens or Liberals, Melbourne Ports is a 3 cornered contest. Richmond is also a 3 cornered contest few people mention, but will grab attention on the night.
Much of the Green gains since 2013 have not been flat across the country but concentrated in target seats. The Greens are getting good at that, we saw the same thing in NSW and VIC state elections. I expect that the Greens will win either 2 or 3 lower house seats tomorrow.
OK, postal vote acknowledged received and about to take a drive to Brisbane and will be passing through the following electorates over the next 18 hours – Newcastle, Paterson, Lyne, Cowper, Page, Richmond, McPherson, Moncrief, Fadden, Forde, Rankin, Moreton, Bonner and Griffith.
I will spread my best juju on the way in the hope that 5 of these change hands tomorrow!
DesertFox: Baldrick tells me that these anti-Corbynites and anti-Goiveites dont need to converge under any respective party leader… just provide individual parliamentary confidence to the SNP/LibDem coalition lol. Aw cmon its at least 50% more probable than a local Windsor government lol?
Ch 10 news item preview: “Malcolm Turnbull in knots over Medicare”
IF the polls are wrong come Saturday should consideration be given to banning publication in last 2 weeks of an election?
If Feeney is above 38% primary, then I think he’ll scrape home.
lizzie
I think O Dwyer this election has fallen into the Mirabella territory. She certainly thought so with that “fake” copyright claim over photo with Mirabella.
GG
My feeling is that in the event of a hung parliament with TCT having the most seats the independents would most likely support Turnbull on confidence and money bills, the only two things that matter. No deals necessary just a commitment not to force an another election.
I can’t see labor getting more seats than TCT.
Only way for Labor to govern is get 76 seats and that is a bridge (or two) too far.
‘Apparently the final ReachTEL is “a ripper”. ‘ By the use of ‘ripper’ I assume Kevin means a big one for the Libs. Not looking good.
Mark Basham
Friday, July 1, 2016 at 1:26 pm
I am in total shock, the Murdoch owned Adelaide Advertiser, has recommended readers to vote for the Coalition in the election. Darn, I put good money on the 50,000,000 to 1 alternative that they’d back the ALP:
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/federal-election/analysis/the-advertisers-editorial-turbulent-times-call-for-turnbull-to-be-our-leader/news-story/2a11eed69af4004cff036079a3d5647d00000
—
No surprises there. The Adelaide Advertiser I’m old enough to remember was where Murdoch started to build his humongous media empire. If the Liberal was a convicted wife beater, Murdoch would have told his Editor to endorse him over Don Dunstan – the more things change the more they stay the same
Phoenix; its not “sickening” to want to hear both sides of the story, quite the opposite infact.
Such a ray of sunshine Sohar 🙂
Regardless of the campaign bollocks, I can’t see Nick X or the (up to) three country indies supporting Labor over the Coalition if Labor don’t clearly win the 2PP and/or win more seats.
Unless Labor is ahead of LNP in seats (and probably by 2 or 3) then Malware will form a minority government. The x benchers will mainly be centrists and will not support a Labor no confidence motion – they will wait and see till some crisis erupts. Hence the high odds for Shorten being prime minister when parliament sits – based on current polling commentary. That is different to the odds of minority government which is overlapping – not separate.
Please no. The next step should be for both sides to stop whinging, stop being ideological to the point of mutual exclusion, and learn to compromise and put forward policies that can get at least some level of bipartisanship support.
Sceptic
Rather than ban polls in the last 2 weeks, it would have more utility to ban Murdoch newpapers in the last 2 weeks.
On “sophomore surge”, individual seat swings for ALL seats in any state tend to form a normal distribution around the statewide mean. This distribution curve includes all seats, whether contested by sophomore members or not. So, “sophomore effect” should not alter the overall probabilities of Labor (say) winning x seats off the Coal in (say) NSW. It may give us a reason for favouring some seats over others as retains for the Coal.
Given this effect, I predict the 3 seats Labor will gain in NSW will be Eden-Monaro, Page and MacArthur, as well as Labor holding its “redistribution” seats of Barton, Paterson and Dobell, for a total of 23 seats to the Coalition’s 23 and 1 Independent.
But why would they Expat? Are they suicidal? All this patronising ‘voters didn’t know what they were doing’ garbage is appalling. All this whinging from young Britons about how they were robbed is disingenuous at best. Why can these people fork out for the Glastonbury Festival but can’t make the effort to vote, if it was so important to them???
Ripper;
1. One who commits murder with a knife or similar sharp object.
So, 53-47 to Libs
2. Slang One that is an excellent example of its kind.
Oh. 50-50?
Or
3. Sitting PM to lose his seat. Ripper.
ReachTELL probably 53 to LNP. I think I’d be almost pleased with anything less at this stage.
When there is an anti incumbent swing on I think Sophomore effect won’t save anyone.
phoenixgreen @ #926 Friday, July 1, 2016 at 4:43 pm
I would be happy to see the Greens win Higgins.
But I sure would like to see them repulsed in Batman and Labor win back Melbourne. 😀
Rogue
Rupert may well have started his newspaper empire in Adelaide but it was at the now defunct afternoon paper, The News.
Turnbull is an idiot & not even the most simpleton voter would believe Mals explanation , he would have been better off say I know nothing.
Asked on Friday by Sunrise host Samantha Armytage if he could guarantee the program’s viewers would not pay more to see their GPs due to the freeze, Mr Turnbull replied: “Sam, absolutely.”
He later told reporters: “Doctors can charge what they like. If a doctor chooses to charge his or her patients $15 or $10 more or $20 more, that’s not because indexation has not resumed – it’s because they want to charge $15 or $20 more.
No not because doctors aren’t getting anything extra from the government to cover increases in expenses … Let’s see what Leigh Sales doesn’t ask him tonight.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-malcolm-turnbull-promises-nobody-will-pay-more-to-see-the-doctor-despite-rebate-freeze-20160701-gpwavq.html#ixzz4D8ZnoxvO
A R –
Why would they start now?
And I think you’re conflating a legislative agenda with executive government. Executive government is the holy grail in these discussions, and it’s not really amenable to ‘bipartisanship’. A Lib treasurer and an ALP environment minister … oh yeah, that’s going to work!
Regardless of anything else, the leaderships of the parties is based on the effective patronage system of divvying up ministerial responsibility – the respective leaders wouldn’t survive cutting their “goodies” in half … the way things are set up at the moment neither the Libs nor Labor would see a ‘grand coalition’ as anything except a disaster, and without a major shift in Australian political thinking it would be a (short-lived) disaster.
If the major parties start being less-than-major, with more parties in play, then of course the dynamics will change, but while “winner takes all” is not only likely, but the expectation, we’re not going to see any of this.