Fairfax-Ipsos: 50-50; Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition

The final Ipsos and Galaxy polls of the campaign record little or no change, with both suggesting the election is still up for grabs.

The final Ipsos poll for Fairfax has the two parties back at 50-50, after Labor led 51-49 a fortnight ago, although Labor maintains its 51-49 lead on respondent-allocated preferences. The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 13% for the Greens (down one). On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is up two on approval to 49% and down one on disapproval to 41%, while Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 50%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 48-34 to 49-35. The poll of 1377 respondents was conducted Monday to Wednesday.

The News Corporation tabloids have a Galaxy poll of 1768 respondents which give the Coalition a lead of 51-49 on two-party preferred, compared with 50-50 in a similar poll a week ago. The primary votes are 43% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one).

Today’s Advertiser has two seat polls from Galaxy Research, which find Kate Ellis leading Liberal challenger 53-47 in Adelaide, and Mark Butler reported as leading 76-33 in Port Adelaide (although this really should add up to 100), with the Nick Xenophon Team presumably running third in both cases since the report doesn’t say otherwise. The samples on the polls are a little over 500.

Three polls have emerged from Campaign for Australian Aid, conducted last Thursday to Saturday by Community Engagement – a national one, and seat polls from Sturt and Higgins. The Higgins poll is particularly interesting in that it suggests Kelly O’Dwyer faces a very serious threat from the Greens. Greens candidate Jason Ball leads Labor’s Carl Katter by 26% to 21%, and O’Dwyer’s 44% is low enough that it would be touch and go for her after preferences. The Sturt poll has the Nick Xenophon Team clearing the first hurdle by outpolling Labor 21% to 18%, but with Christopher Pyne’s primary vote of 48% being high enough to keep him safe. The national poll of 861 respondents has primary vote results of Coalition 40%, Labor 31% and Greens 11%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,153 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 50-50; Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. sprocket_ Friday, July 1, 2016 at 4:51 pm
    Sceptic

    Rather than ban polls in the last 2 weeks, it would have more utility to ban Murdoch newpapers in the last 2 weeks.

    **************************************************************
    Rather than ban polls in the last 2 weeks, it would have more utility to ban Murdoch newpapers and associated Murdoch Incorporated media in ALL its forms outright .

    Only HE ….. and his TOP END OF TOWN MATES will win anything out of this election …. the rest of us get the two figure salute.

  2. @Bug1
    Yeah, that’s what I said. What’s sickening is downplaying the seriousness of abuse by an MP, as if it wouldn’t be that big a deal.

  3. silencewedge: Just think, by tomorrow night we’ll know who our Prime Minister will be for the next few months

  4. Guardian Australia‏ @GuardianAus
    Malcolm Turnbull guarantees that cost of seeing a GP will not rise – video

  5. I wonder if david Speers has seen the latest Reachtel which has already been given to Riley at Channel 7?

    Bridget O’Flynn ‏@BridgetOFlynn
    Speers: Internal polling tracking showed Labor in trouble earlier in week but since Wed & Thurs things have really tightened up.
    #ausvotes

    8

    6

    Bridget O’Flynn
    47m47 minutes ago
    Bridget O’Flynn ‏@BridgetOFlynn
    David Speers: Today there’s a bit of uncertainty of a govt win. Most ppl on both sides think things have really tightened up.
    #ausvotes

  6. @J341983
    Bhathal is eating big chunks out of Feeney’s PV in the northern areas of the electorate and particularly among migrants and older voters, I expect that the polls are correct that she will be about 10 points ahead of him, and he will fall to low 30s or high 20s. The Liberal party will help Feeney claw back into contention, but it won’t be enough.

    We’ll see for sure tomorrow, but I’m fairly confident Batman has been won.

  7. Fox, I’m having a lend in the spirit of mindtwisting goodstuff from the crack pipe such as a Windsor government.

    Right – into the car we go. I will keep tabs here tomorrow night from the North… may the force be with the good guys

  8. My son just suggested Medicare benefits should be indexed to politicians’ wages. Always knew he was brilliant!

  9. Bridget O’Flynn ‏@BridgetOFlynn
    Speers: Nick X was talking this morning of not just winning #Mayo in SA but winning #Barker & #Grey as well all safe Lib seats.
    #ausvotes

    4

    1

    Bridget O’Flynn
    48m48 minutes ago
    Bridget O’Flynn ‏@BridgetOFlynn
    Speers: Someone said to me today ‘Watch Bob Katter in Kennedy, he might lose that seat’.
    #ausvotes

  10. I don’t think the media would use the word ‘ripper’if it were positive for Labor (Labor are their enemy, after all), so good for Libs. Unless it is used to mean and exciting contest (e.g.’ the St Kilda – Geelong game was a ripper’)

  11. If KB knows the result of the Reachtel he would’ve said so wouldn’t he? The “Ripper” comment must be heresay from someone else who knows.

  12. jack a randa @ #961 Friday, July 1, 2016 at 5:04 pm

    My son just suggested Medicare benefits should be indexed to politicians’ wages. Always knew he was brilliant!

    I’m always of the opinion that the minimum award rate should be somehow pegged to politicians wages by a fixed magnitude. Or was that the other way around?

  13. Jack A Randa
    Friday, July 1, 2016 at 5:04 pm
    My son just suggested Medicare benefits should be indexed to politicians’ wages. Always knew he was brilliant!

    Also a good approach for the minimum wage!!

  14. AB

    Comes from here

    ReachTEL
    2h2 hours ago
    ReachTEL ‏@ReachTEL
    @AshleyLeahy @Riley7News @Y7News Yes. You can obviously still work out 2013 prefs from our published primary votes.

    ReachTEL
    4h4 hours ago
    ReachTEL ‏@ReachTEL
    We have just handed @Riley7News the results to our final federal poll. Watch @Y7News tonight @ 6pm for the results. It’s a ripper! #ausvotes

  15. I can’t see any good reason why, all of a sudden, the electorate would swing back to supporting the Coalition. What have they done for us lately? Nothing. They haven’t even run as good a campaign as Labor, and I haven’t seen it on the Pre Poll for the Coalition the way I did last election for Tony Abbott. In fact, I’ve seen the opposite. People aren’t stupid. They know the Coalition want to create a class-based society. If you’ve got money, you can buy it, whatever ‘it’ is. My general impression has been that that upsets them enough to want to head it off at the pass. I guess we’ll see at 6pm on 7.

  16. I think I must be all electioned out.

    Petty squabbles, ridiculous jumping to conclusions … (I gather nobody was there at the Danby kerfuffle to be able to say what happened?)

    Assumptions about polls … etc etc…

    Enough!

  17. Can someone tell me why ONLY a COALition majority government can give Australia stability what about a majority Labor government. stay alert we need more lerts

  18. So the value of the £ hasn’t been improving despite the stock market recovering since the Brexit referendum. I hear it’s expected to dive even further once Article 50 is invoked.
    Based on this, perhaps I should cut my losses and transfer my UK savings over here soon, accepting an exchange rate around AU$1.80.
    If anyone has a better idea I’d love to hear it.

  19. People should take heart from the fact that Turnbull spent the final day of the campaign in Reid, a marginal Liberal seat, and Shorten spent the final day of the campaign in Banks, also a marginal Liberal seat.

    Ten News was positive for Labor and covered Turnbull’s Medicare gaffe extensively.

  20. Guy Rundle reports in his article today that a voter at a Batman booth said he had voted Labor for 40 years until he found out Feeney was a “property baron”. Then, as he took a Green HTV card a Labor volunteer accused him of being “jealous”.

  21. FUNNYBALL
    Friday, July 1, 2016 at 4:51 pm

    Given this effect, I predict the 3 seats Labor will gain in NSW will be Eden-Monaro, Page and MacArthur, as well as Labor holding its “redistribution” seats of Barton, Paterson and Dobell, for a total of 23 seats to the Coalition’s 23 and 1 Independent.

    —-
    BINGO – I had LINDSAY in there for 7 in NSW at one stage but that was more wishful thinking.

  22. Is this officially Australia’s longest ever election campaign?
    The length of it has certainly given Turnbull an excuse not to govern or do anything, except take selfies. He’s a dog that caught the car, like Boris Johnson. Absolutely no idea what to do next.

  23. I was listening to Shorten last night on RN. He is so hot and cold. I can see how some write him off – there is ample material in his delivery (if thats what you are looking for).

    What has angered me most in recent days is the media giving it to the Coalition and asking questions of Bill of what will happen when he loses. Whilst I find this the worst element of the MSM coverage of the campaign, it is the question that fired Shorten up and when he gives his best freewheeling response.

  24. Labor couldn’t have planned a better ‘day before the polls’

    All the talk is Medicare and Turnbull stuffed up. The AMA president has come out and said Labor has stronger policies in many areas; the Medicare signs at polling stations tomorrow will seal the deal.

  25. Jack A Randa @ 4.30pm: There’s no way known that the AEC could do a three-party count of preferences on election night. It wasn’t what the Electoral Act contemplated; the staff by that time will already be dog tired and likely to mess it up; and their results systems (which have to be linked into those of the TV networks) aren’t capable of being reconfigured at the last moment to enable the outcome of such a count to be tabulated.

    The AEC have done a very professional job this election, but they can’t see into the future, and there’s every chance that in some of the seats in SA they will pick the wrong two candidates for the election night two candidate preferred count, for which they shouldn’t be blamed. In such cases, we will all just have to wait for a few days.

  26. Bonza – not trying to give you advice, but remember that Brexit is probably priced in and the fundamentals of both economies likely hasn’t drastically changed from 2-3 months ago when the pound was at A$2:15. You run the risk of selling at the bottom if you cash out now.

    Of course, there’s no guarantee it won’t fall further, either.

  27. Sohar – I remember reading it was the longest since 19XX — not sure when but in recent memory there was supposedly one just as long.

  28. In regards to worries about the AEC count, we will get a pretty certain indication of who will likely win a seat based on the primary vote count in SA seats anyway.

  29. [Jason Ball could be the upset of election night]
    Channelling Bob………
    Evan Hughes will be the upset of the night.

  30. Just did a pre-poll vote at Balcatta ( Stirling). No party reps in sight but there was a table inside with party material piled up. This was right next to where the AEC people were working. Not sure if you would be allowed to do this at a regular polling station.

  31. Does anyone here have any insight into how the Chinese community are going to vote in inner-Sydney?

    That Sky hack Keiran Gilbert on twitter reckons that ALP are worried about Barton because of a strong Liberal campaign in the Chinese community.

    I call BS on that but any insight would be good.

  32. I live on the boundaries of Barton/Grayndler and haven’t seen any Chinese language or directed ads. The ALP candidate has been fairly present, too.

  33. AK

    Only if you believe the conspiracy stories of the Chinese leaders telling the Chinese background people to vote LNP.

    I think its BS. Business leaders might but thats no more strong than any other part of the community.

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