BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Coalition

Daylight has finally opened between the two parties on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, without quite freeing the Coalition from the risk of a hung parliament.

What would normally be the regular weekly reading of BludgerTrack, conducted after Essential Research completes the weekly cycle, finds a late break in favour of the Coalition, who have recorded a stronger result from Newspoll and two successive above-par showings from ReachTEL. The latest numbers also incorporate the Newspoll state breakdowns published on Monday by The Australian, together with state-level numbers from Essential and ReachTEL. The former were chiefly notable in finding a weaker swing to Labor in Western Australia than polling earlier in the campaign indicated. BludgerTrack now records a 5.5% swing in WA with two seats falling to Labor, which finally brings it into line with what both parties say they are anticipating.

The national seat projection now records the Coalition at 80, with gains since last week of two in New South Wales and one each in Victoria and South Australia. However, since this is a two-party model, it fails to account for the threat the Coalition faces from non-major candidates in New England, Cowper and at least three South Australian seats under threat from the Nick Xenophon Team, and hence can’t be seen as definitively pointing to a Coalition majority. Full details at the bottom of the post, together with the latest reading of Coalition win probabilities on the betting markets, which seem to have resumed moving upwards after a ten-day plateau.

The final reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has the Coalition down a point on the primary vote 39%, but is otherwise unchanged on last week with Labor on 37%, the Greens on 10% and the Nick Xenophon Team on 4%, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. There was also a follow-up question on preferences from those who voted for minor parties and independents, with Greens voters splitting 86-14 to Labor (83-17 at the 2013 election) and others going 52-48 to Liberal (53-47 last time), but high “don’t know” results limit the usefulness of these figures.

The poll also records Malcolm Turnbull gaining two on approval since a fortnight ago to 40% while remaining steady on disapproval at 40%, while Bill Shorten is up three to 37% and down one to 39%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 40-29. Of the remaining results, the most interesting for mine is that 50% think it very likely that a Liberal government would privatise Medicare, with only 34% rating it as not likely. The poll also records 30% saying Turnbull and the Liberals have run the better campaign, 28% opting for Bill Shorten and Labor and 8% favouring Richard di Natale and the Greens; 39% expecting a Coalition majority versus 24% for Labor and 16% for a hung parliament; and that 63% would support “phasing out live exports to reduce animal cruelty and protect Australian jobs” (a bit leading, in my view), with only 18% opposed.

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,080 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Coalition”

  1. murpharoo: One of the more ridiculous *truisms* of the Coalition campaign: that Labor somehow can’t win an election in its own right #KitchenCabinet

  2. I’m so torn! I want to be excited by Ipsos, but at the same time I don’t, as usual, find their pv figures at all reliable. Would love us to be on 13 percent but feel that’s too high. Both Labor and Coalition look too low. Will wait for Reachtel and Newspoll tomorrow but it sure doesn’t look over yet.

  3. But when respondents were asked specifically which party would receive their second preference on Saturday, Labor edged into the lead at 51-49 – an identical outcome to that returned in the last two fortnightly Fairfax-Ipsos polls.

    That represents a 4.5 per cent swing to Labor since 2013 and if registered uniformly across the country on election day, would be enough to safely install a Shorten Labor government.

  4. kevin-one-seven @ #2047 Thursday, June 30, 2016 at 8:31 pm

    The libs thought they would have broken the back of labor by now, but Labor is following them like an old hound. Since the Liberal meme has been that Malcolm is advancing towards a glorious victory (so you might as well jump on the bandwagon and prevent a hung parliament) will this sort of new cost him votes?

    It’s almost too late. I don’t know what the real figures are and I’m not sure just how you would determine it, but from this neck of the woods, I reckon 50% at the very least will have voted before Saturday, judging by how many are going in to the prepolling station here in Armidale.

    That still leaves a sizeable number, I know, but the prepolling is going to (increasingly) change the way politicians handle the electoral cycle.

    At the moment they seem hung up on the election day vote, but that is going to become more and more irrelevant.

  5. Thinking this 50/50 Ipsos, or 51/49 good guys on respondent allocated prefs is putting the willies right up the #RupertRooters in Holt St.

    Expect a ‘ correcting’ Newspoll, or at least a swag of select marginals they have been sitting on (and pimping around journalists) to feature in the Murdoch organs late tonight.

  6. My 93 year old mother voted today, along with my sister. Two more for Terri Butler.
    ” She’s a nice girl, but I don’t like that Turnbull, he’s got shifty eyes.”
    Well said Mum!

  7. 90 seats to the ALP
    Pyne gorn
    Briggs gorn
    Turnbull gorn
    Barnaby gorn
    Thems my predictions and I am sticking to them.

  8. Just back from a session to learn how to scrutineer for Saturday. I have my own souvenir Vote for Penny Wong in the Senate corflute. 🙂

  9. This Sky News mini forum in Rooty Hill is fascinating (Spiers with 13 undecideds).
    Their concerns all resonate with labor talking points – “don’t trust Turnbull, worried about penalty rates, gay marriage yeah why not, get on with it).
    There could be some undercurrents here the MSM are not picking up. Very encouraging.

  10. Hey Tim Brooke-Taylor got fat

    No wait that’s Boris Johnson, blaming the EU for the consequences of Tory Austerity measures

  11. If I were the Greens, I’d find the fact that Others are polling so highly disappointing – surely more of that vote should be going their way?

  12. “Ipsos Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 40 (+1) ALP 33 (0) GRN 13 (-1) Others 14”
    Allow 4% of others to NXT (essential result), 5% to LNP, 5% ALP
    Allow 80% of GRN to ALP = 10%, 3% to LNP, gives;
    LNP 48, ALP 52

  13. Windhover – my OH has been known to do the odd TV show 🙂 and I am willing to bet, the producer said to her ‘wrap it up’ and she involuntarily repeated it – unprofessional yes, but also likely.

  14. So, was the brash “all over bar the shouting” nonsense from PM and pundits really the equivalent of Sir Humphrey’s “avant guarded music , super modern decor and a loud shirt” ( or whatever it was) when things are really going very badly?

  15. If Bill were to win I think Sales should do the decent thing and resign. Otherwise she should be sacked as quickly as possible (unfortunately might take a while!).

  16. bobball_au @ #2056 Thursday, June 30, 2016 at 8:41 pm

    My 93 year old mother voted today, along with my sister. Two more for Terri Butler.
    ” She’s a nice girl, but I don’t like that Turnbull, he’s got shifty eyes.”
    Well said Mum!

    My father is 95 and in a nursing home. He is also in Turnbull’s electorate and has been in Wentworth for decades. He was a lifelong Labor voter until he decided that Labor wasn’t Labor any more (longed for the days of Chifley) and became a fan of Howard’s.

    I asked him a few weeks ago what he thought of Turnbull. He said that Turnbull passed him once (before he went into the nursing home) and he turned to smile at Turnbull and Turnbull gave him the most arrogant sneering look as though he was rubbish. Now my father does overstate this stuff, but I thought it amusing and interesting that it was hate at first sight for him.

    Story apropos of nothing much. Other than one more person who thinks Turncoat is a fake.

  17. C@Tmomma Thursday, June 30, 2016 at 2:20 pm
    guytaur @ #1571 Thursday, June 30, 2016 at 2:08 pm
    ABC Radio Local News. Mike Baird has been sent to Cowper to try and save the seat

    Well, that will go down like a lead blue balloon. Mr Council Amalgamations sent to save the Liberal/NP furniture in Cowper.
    ——————
    Even Nats up here don’t think much of city Liberals, but there haven’t been any council amalgamations in Cowper.

  18. Guytaur Thursday, June 30, 2016 at 2:59 pm
    lenoretaylor: One in three GPs could ditch universal bulk billing, survey warns https://t.co/0kLiwYIaLo
    —————–
    My wife’s practice had to ditch universal bulk billing earlier this year. That, or go broke. They’ve had posters up in their waiting room blaming the Coalition for months.

  19. Hey WillBowe, I just had a terrible thought. If the AEC tell all the polling places in SA to do the usual indicative 2PP count on a Lib vs Lab basis, we really won’t have clue about the outcome in any seats on Saturday night will we? Any chance that they could be a bit more subtle and tell the OICs to do an indicative 3-way count between Lib, Lab and NXT? (Then, if they had time after totalling that count they could do 2PP counts as relevant in each Division – but if they didn’t have time for that at least we’d know who was coming 1st 2nd and 3rd in each Division and could make intelligent predictions.)
    Sub-s 274(2A) seems to permit that; it says to “conduct a count of preference votes …that… will best provide an indication of the candidate most likely to be elected for the Division”. But they haven’t shown much flexibility in the past, have they?

  20. Hey WillBowe, I just had a terrible thought. If the AEC tell all the polling places in SA to do the usual indicative 2PP count on a Lib vs Lab basis, we really won’t have clue about the outcome in any seats on Saturday night will we?

    Only the ones where NXT is clearly coming third.

    Any chance that they could be a bit more subtle and tell the OICs to do an indicative 3-way count between Lib, Lab and NXT?

    It may be theoretically possible, but I’m sure that’s not what’s going to happen. Also, I’m not clear what you mean. You could do a three-way count to work out which of the three is going to be excluded, but I expect that will be clear enough in most cases from the primary vote. The real question is still, which two-party count do you conduct, and for practical reasons that needs to be determined in advance. The AEC keeps this information under wraps because it doesn’t want to express a public attitude on what it thinks the results will be.

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