BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Coalition

Daylight has finally opened between the two parties on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, without quite freeing the Coalition from the risk of a hung parliament.

What would normally be the regular weekly reading of BludgerTrack, conducted after Essential Research completes the weekly cycle, finds a late break in favour of the Coalition, who have recorded a stronger result from Newspoll and two successive above-par showings from ReachTEL. The latest numbers also incorporate the Newspoll state breakdowns published on Monday by The Australian, together with state-level numbers from Essential and ReachTEL. The former were chiefly notable in finding a weaker swing to Labor in Western Australia than polling earlier in the campaign indicated. BludgerTrack now records a 5.5% swing in WA with two seats falling to Labor, which finally brings it into line with what both parties say they are anticipating.

The national seat projection now records the Coalition at 80, with gains since last week of two in New South Wales and one each in Victoria and South Australia. However, since this is a two-party model, it fails to account for the threat the Coalition faces from non-major candidates in New England, Cowper and at least three South Australian seats under threat from the Nick Xenophon Team, and hence can’t be seen as definitively pointing to a Coalition majority. Full details at the bottom of the post, together with the latest reading of Coalition win probabilities on the betting markets, which seem to have resumed moving upwards after a ten-day plateau.

The final reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has the Coalition down a point on the primary vote 39%, but is otherwise unchanged on last week with Labor on 37%, the Greens on 10% and the Nick Xenophon Team on 4%, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. There was also a follow-up question on preferences from those who voted for minor parties and independents, with Greens voters splitting 86-14 to Labor (83-17 at the 2013 election) and others going 52-48 to Liberal (53-47 last time), but high “don’t know” results limit the usefulness of these figures.

The poll also records Malcolm Turnbull gaining two on approval since a fortnight ago to 40% while remaining steady on disapproval at 40%, while Bill Shorten is up three to 37% and down one to 39%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 40-29. Of the remaining results, the most interesting for mine is that 50% think it very likely that a Liberal government would privatise Medicare, with only 34% rating it as not likely. The poll also records 30% saying Turnbull and the Liberals have run the better campaign, 28% opting for Bill Shorten and Labor and 8% favouring Richard di Natale and the Greens; 39% expecting a Coalition majority versus 24% for Labor and 16% for a hung parliament; and that 63% would support “phasing out live exports to reduce animal cruelty and protect Australian jobs” (a bit leading, in my view), with only 18% opposed.



Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,080 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Coalition”

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  1. Sales tells Bill to “wrap it up – please” after asking him a question. The pressure is getting to her, she seemed manic towards the end of the interview. I feel sorry for her…

  2. So much for the Libs walking over the line.Its all over 2 weeks ago apparently,Malcolms won.Shorten might not as well turn up.Id love to see egg on their smug arse faces on Saturday night if Turnbull doesnt win a majority or loses.

  3. #Ipsos Poll Shorten: Approve 42 (-1) Disapprove 50 (+3)
    #Ipsos Poll Turnbull: Approve 49 (+2) Disapprove 41 (-1)
    #Ipsos Poll Preferred PM: Turnbull 49 (+1) Shorten 35 (+1)

  4. I’ll never be a cub reporter like Jimmy Olsen – keep missing out on the scoops by a few minutes! (Kenny’s article)

  5. Got robocalled by Reachtel today on my mobile.

    I also voted today a lot of voters were carrying the red HTV to the booths. I hope Stefanie Perri can takeover from Anna Burke.

  6. I still think the final % will be 51.3 ALP

    I have always thought the prefs from last time favoured anyone but ALP. Died in the wool ALP friends voted Lib or other last time bc they wanted to kick ALP in the butt.

    Baseball bats are not out for Libs (don’t know why, they’ve stuffed everything they touched or just did nothing at all) but the baseball bats are certainly not out for ALP either. So those predisposed to preffing ALP would likely return to that action in my logic.

  7. Is Fred Nile really a chance of a senate seat in NSW? Bloody hell as if. The LDP has a way better chance of Leyonhjelm being relected.

  8. That bean poll tells a totally different story this time around.Even though its not an official poll it does mean something.Remember people have been prepolling at the same time as they have been having coffees and muffins over the last 3 weeks.As BB said that one in Reid shows a majority for Labor and his relative says its never been wrong. It shows support for other parties as does the Ipsos poll.With the poll showing 34 each to the major parties,surely the others and greens are more likely to preference Labor than the Coalition.I think Malcolms in big trouble.

  9. Libs I met at prepolling in Bradfield today were nervous, one of them is off to Lindsay tomorrow and most likely Saturday.
    I am optimistic.
    If anything the leadership talk today:
    * is a sign the Liberals backers (News Corp) are nervous.
    * will if anything ,remind voters of the last leadership change: Turnbull over Abbott. Shorten by comparison is the ‘guy who has been there forever’
    good luck everyone, not long to go now and keep at it.

  10. Why am I getting my dinner interrupted every night by “Hello, I’m Malcolm Turnbull…”
    Hope it means Petrie is returning to Labor.

  11. Gee, if Ipsos has the PV for the LNP on just 40, when 45 is their high water mark, then it certainly is a close call. Labor’s 33 is not too flash but so many votes – 27 – in the Others/Green pocket. You would have to think the LNP is slightly favoured but if those wayward Others/Green votes do not head back to the LNP then who knows?

  12. Queensland Alpwins
    Capricornia and Petrie……..ultra Marginal
    ? Bonner, Brisbane, Forde (Beatie lost votes last time as imposed)
    Rumours…… Dawson, Herbert, Flynn
    Dickson & Longman……. horrible sitting mps
    outsider…… Fadden ….. S. Robert ex minister

  13. Heard an interview with Derryn Hinch this morning. He seems pretty confident of a Senate place. On listening to his so-called platform, not many sounded to business friendly. Does anyone think he has a chance…….? He is in the No 1 position on the Vic Senate ballot paper I gather.

  14. So you reckon Mal spent his mornings this week ringing regional radio stations around the country because even though he knew the TCT was over the line he wanted to share himself around and chat with all those nice presenters

    Yeah right.

    I still suspect the TCT will be returned, maybe even with 80 seats, but I will be surprised of the count in the last few seats doesn’t go right to the wire. Margins in the hundreds.

    And my other tip is that Mal will survive one month for every seat beyond 76. Eighty would see him gone before christmas. As someone else said, herding cats will be easier than dealing with the vengeful Abbott team

    I hope of course, I am wrong about all of this .

  15. Late swing to Libs hey.Look at bean poll in Cowan in the last 2 weeks::
    In the first two weeks of voting, the Madeley and Wanneroo stores’ combined totals showed the Coalition leading at 42 and 34 per cent respectively but in week three support for Labor candidate Anne Aly jumped to 39 per cent and was at 40 per cent in the fourth.

    The average after the four weeks has Liberal MHR Luke Simpkins with a one per cent lead over Dr Aly at 34 per cent, while the Greens are at 13 per cent (rounded up), and 19 per cent (rounded up) of the vote was for ‘other’.

  16. Fairfax, and Kenny in partic, have gone completely schizo. A few headlines/links grouped all together on the Bris Times front (“home”) page:

    Coalition faces shock loss: Fairfax-Ipsos Mark Kenny 16m ago
    Voters undecided with just hours to go Mark Kenny 12m ago
    It’s 50-50, so what was the point of it all? Peter Hartcher 55m ago
    Confident PM pitches for Labor seats James Massola

    Overall conclusion – they haven’t got a clue, but can’t admit it. I’m one up on them – I haven’t got a clue what the result will be but I admit it!

  17. Jenauthor @8:14PM: I think that you’re right that those predisposed to vote ALP will return this tine. Some may have peeled off to ‘Others’ but their votes will come back in preferences. However, I don’t think that is enough. Malcolm has fixed most of the damage done to his sude by Abbott (without changing any of his policies in any sugnificant way). The Liberals keep their base too, plus they remain the party of ‘middle class respectability’.

  18. jenauthor

    Allocating preferences based on 2013 would have to be dodgy. Oh so many back then believing in Tones as the answer to $100 roasts and Whyalla wiping outs have had reality giving them a good slap so they ain’t going to be feeling the Liberal love this time around ,

  19. Helped my 84 year old near blind mother with her visually impaired voting today by telephone. A very helpful AEC worker stepped us through, going off to find the Banks HoR ballot, and insisting on reading out every candidate and their affiliation – 7 in total

    When we got to the Senate, the AEC person said she was obliged to read out all 42 NSW party columns, unless my mother knew what she wanted. Thankfully she did. Sadly, she had the Liberal HTV to help her ;(

  20. I just finished watching the Leigh Sales interview with Bill Shorten. She was just as rude and interrupted at least as much as usual when interviewing a Labor pollie ..but, I thought Bill dealt with her with consummate ease..

    ..Geez he’s an impressive politician & will come very close to pulling off a surprise win for the true believers on Saturday..

  21. Kenny seeking to be among the select crew of journos who didn’t report their fantasies in lieu of news should Labor win

  22. Trog@1911,

    William did a good job on the Drum, although it was depressing to hear his views on the way Brexit could work in the Coalition’s favor. I am sure this is correct.
    Brexit, and its likely influence on Saturday’s election, reinforces my view that conservatives are completely unfit to govern in a rapidly changing world. They are responsible for increased inequality, the destruction of the ecosystem, and eventually massive social dislocation.

    Unfortunately, I believe William is correct.

    I had hoped that the LNP could at least have been kept to a minority government, which would mean we could start having a national conversation about the rapid change in the workplace/ society which will mean the end of paid work being a reliable way to get enough money for a person to get food and shelter, within a decade at the most.

    And, the environment…
    Anyway, this will get me off my bum to write a series of articles for The Conversation, which I have been threatening to do for some time, explaining, evidenced based, what the future has in store for us.

    At the moment, in Australia, i think we will soon be living in Rupert Murdoch’s neo-liberal paradise.

    “Been living most our life, in a neo-liberal paradise…”

  23. Oh, and respondent-allocated prefs (has anyone else said this yet? – if so, soz) 51-49 to Labor. That’ll do me – all you need to govern for 3 years is 76 seats (as long as you haven’t preselected a Craig Thomson or Peter Slipper equivalent).

  24. Part of the reason for swing against Turnbull in his seat. Not all media on his side.

    DEJAY Toborek is going head-to-head with the Prime Minister for his seat of Wentworth in the Federal election.

    COREY SINCLAIR — JUNE 29, 2016
    Dejay Toborek (left) will take on Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull (right) for the seat of Wentworth in the upcoming Federal election.
    Dejay Toborek (left) will take on Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull (right) for the seat of Wentworth in the upcoming Federal election.
    DEJAY Toborek isn’t your typical politician. His background is in performing – the professional kind.

    He also has a drag queen alter ego, but most importantly, he speaks from the heart.

    The 37-year-old Greens candidate is also going head-to-head with current Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull in the electorate of Wentworth in the upcoming Federal election.
    It’s not the first time Toborek has gone head to head with Turnbull. The pair had a meeting six years ago to discuss marriage equality after Adam Bandt called for everyone to speak to their local member about the issue.

    “He sat my partner and I down, looked us in the eye and said ‘you could have civil unions today but if you want marriage equality, you’ll have to wait for it’. We’re still waiting,” Toborek told the Star Observer.

    “We’ve been engaged for ten years this August – we’re really sick of this perpetual engagement, as are many of our friends and family.

  25. Sky News “focus group” with 12 undecided voters.

    “Whenever Labor get in they just throw money away”

    “I like that Turnbull has a plan, it’s kinda glazed over but ya know… it’s a plan”

  26. A timely warning for people contemplating wasting their primary vote on the LNP or Labor:

    The Shadow Treasurer has been relentlessly claiming that Labor will see the “budget balance improving” as if running down a deficit is an improvement when there are more than 15 per cent of the labour force lying idle – either in unemployment or underemployment or hidden outside the official count (given the participation rate is still depressed).

    As a prediction, I don’t see them achieving these goals because in trying they will undermine the tax revenue growth that would be required to record fiscal surpluses.

    Their public statements presume that the fiscal balance is something they can control and is disconnected from the rest of the economy in some way – so that it can become a legitimate policy target.

    The fact is that the fiscal balance is not something the federal government can control – it can influence its outcome via its discretionary spending and taxation decisions but ultimately, the final outcome is the result of the non-government sector’s spending and saving decisions.

    The best way to reduce a fiscal deficit, if that should be a legitimate policy goal tied in with creating advances in well-being for all the population, is to engender growth in employment with wages growth.

    The policy strategy pursued by governments these days, in the main, are the opposite. They preach about how they are committed to ‘Jobs and Growth’ but oversee labour market developments which yield pathetic employment growth, increased casualisation and precarious work, and low wages growth (even real wage cuts).

    And then they wonder why the cyclical component of the fiscal balance goes against their goal of reducing the deficit.

    The election economic debate is so asinine in Australia that I barely follow it these days. The goings on in Britain and America are much more interesting.

  27. This assertion that the polls are all swinging away from the ALP in the last couple of weeks is bizarre. From what I can gather the ALP has remained steady on all the latest polls from the four pollsters (Reachtel,Newspoll, Essential, Ipsos) and the Libs have traded with the Greens/Others in both directions across those same polls with a net primary effect of no movement. Nothing at all has happened in that time, yet somehow now the Libs are a shoe-In and back then it was on a knife-edge.

  28. The libs thought they would have broken the back of labor by now, but Labor is following them like an old hound. Since the Liberal meme has been that Malcolm is advancing towards a glorious victory (so you might as well jump on the bandwagon and prevent a hung parliament) will this sort of new cost him votes?

  29. Have just registered my complaint with the abc over the Sales interrogation.

    Sales herself recognised she had gone too far with her wrap it up interruption; and knew her outrageous laughter required some sort of explanation, however improbable.
    Her interview was as poor as Bill Shorten’s answers were quietly and respectfully (unbelievably) responsive. I only hope in interview she is, after the election, given the respect she deserves if she is not sacked. Pissing and shitting in front of her would be too lenient.

  30. BK

    But BK. She is THE star. What EVERYONE has tuned in to watch. So how dare a mere guest not follow the script and think they are any more than a prop and a stage upon which the star will display their awesomeness.

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