With four days to go …

Newspoll state and demographic breakdowns, Senate intelligence, and a strange result from the Northern Territory.

A few bits and pieces to report:

• The Australian has published Newspoll breakdowns derived from its last three polls by the usual range of indicators: state, gender, age and metro/non-metro. The most interesting finding is that the Coalition has recovered in Western Australia, where it records a 4% swing to Labor compared with 7% in the previous breakdown of polling conducted in April and May.

• Appearing on Andrew Bolt’s program on Sky News, Peta Credlin offered an appraisal of the Senate situation that chimes very well with my own Senate analyses, suggesting the Nick Xenophon Team will win three seats in South Australia, Jacqui Lambie’s ticket will win at least one seat in Tasmania, both Glenn Lazarus and Pauline Hanson could win in Queensland (see my post below this one), Derryn Hinch will win in Victoria, David Leyonhjelm is a maybe in New South Wales, and only Western Australia looks unlikely to return any micro-parties or independents.

• The Northern Territory News reported yesterday on an “independent poll” conducted in the Darwin seat of Solomon showed Labor’s Luke Gosling leading Country Liberal Party incumbent Natasha Griggs 61-39, suggesting a swing of 12%. The poll was conducted by MediaReach last Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 513. If that doesn’t sound entirely plausible, the reports Labor’s polling shows a “51-to-49 per cent two-party-preferred contest”, presumably in their own favour.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,007 comments on “With four days to go …”

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  1. DOOMSDAY – WHO GETS TO RUN A MINORITY GOVT ?
    PART ONE
    Summary- If Labor finishes with less than 72 seats [+18], they cannot form a minority Government unless the Coalition drops to 71 seats [-21].

    If the Coalition finishes with 75 seats [-17], Katter will support a Coalition ‘minority Government’.

    74-70 -6 Labor can not form a minority Government
    If the Coalition finishes with 74 seats [-18], they will need Katter and ONE ‘other’ to form a Coalition ‘minority Government’. Bandt and Wilkie would not, but McGowan, Oakeshott, Windsor or Xenephon could.

    74-71-5 ` Labor can not form a minority Government
    If the Coalition finishes with 74 seats, they will need Katter and ONE ‘other’ to form a Coalition ‘minority Government’. Bandt and Wilkie would not, but McGowan, Oakeshott, Windsor or Xenephon could.

    74-72-4. Labor can not form a minority Government
    If the Coalition finishes with 74 seats, they will need Katter and ONE ‘other’ to form a Coalition ‘minority Government’. Bandt and Wilkie would not, but McGowan could.

    73-72-5 Either the Coalition or Labor could form a minority Government
    If the Coalition finishes with 73 seats [-19], they will need Katter and TWO ‘others’ to form a Coalition ‘minority Government’. McGowan, Oakeshott, Windsor or Xenephon could. However, IF Labor has 72 seats [+18], they could also form a ‘minority Government’ with the support of Bandt, Wilkie, McGowan and Xenephon.

    73-73-4 The Coalition can not form a minority Government
    If the Coalition finishes with 73 seats [-19], they will need Katter and TWO ‘others’ to form a Coalition ‘minority Government’. Bandt and Wilkie would not . However, IF Labor also has 73 seats[+19], they could form a ‘minority Government’ with the support of Bandt, Wilkie and McGowan.

  2. DOOMSDAY – WHO GETS TO RUN A MINORITY GOVT ?
    PART TWO

    72-72-6 Either the Coalition or Labor could form a minority Government
    If the Coalition finishes with 72 seats [-20], they will need Katter and THREE ‘others’ to form a Coalition ‘minority Government’. Bandt and Wilkie would not, but McGowan, Oakeshott, Windsor and Xenephon could. This would need ‘others’ to be at least 6 and 4 of them able to work with a Coalition. However, IF Labor also has 72 seats[+18], they could form a ‘minority Government’ with the support of FOUR others -Bandt, Wilkie, McGowan and Xenepon, for example
    .
    72-73-5 The Coalition can not form a minority Government
    If the Coalition finishes with 72 seats, they will need Katter and THREE ‘Others’ to form a Coalition ‘minority Government’. Bandt and Wilkie would not. IF Labor has 73 seats[+19], they could form a ‘minority Government’ with the support of Bandt, Wilkie and McGowan or Xenephon.

    72-74-4 The Coalition can not form a minority Government
    If the Coalition finishes with 72 seats, they will need Katter and THREE ‘Others’ to form a Coalition ‘minority Government’. Bandt and Wilkie would not. IF Labor has 74 seats[+20], they could form a ‘minority Government’ with the support of Bandt and Wilkie.

  3. BC / Teh_

    So the Poms could end up in a couple of months with Teresa May (PM) and Yvette Cooper (LoTO).

    That’d be a change!

  4. Computer language translation:

    Wife cake and evil water: The perils of auto-translation

    Imagine a far flung land where you can catch a ride from the Jackie Chan bus stop to a restaurant called Translate Server Error, and enjoy a hearty feast of children sandwiches and wife cake all washed down with some evil water.

    If such a rich lunch gets stuck in your gnashers, you’ll be pleased to know there are plenty of Methodists on hand to remove your teeth.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36638929

    😀

  5. Good Moring

    I see briefly is copping some flak for being abusive. I do not find this so. I have very very robust arguments with him on the Greens and some other issues.

    However we disagree on those issues he is still a gentleman and we can and do agree on other issues.

    This is how it should be. As many have said an echo chamber benefits no one.

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