A few bits and pieces to report:
• The Australian has published Newspoll breakdowns derived from its last three polls by the usual range of indicators: state, gender, age and metro/non-metro. The most interesting finding is that the Coalition has recovered in Western Australia, where it records a 4% swing to Labor compared with 7% in the previous breakdown of polling conducted in April and May.
• Appearing on Andrew Bolt’s program on Sky News, Peta Credlin offered an appraisal of the Senate situation that chimes very well with my own Senate analyses, suggesting the Nick Xenophon Team will win three seats in South Australia, Jacqui Lambie’s ticket will win at least one seat in Tasmania, both Glenn Lazarus and Pauline Hanson could win in Queensland (see my post below this one), Derryn Hinch will win in Victoria, David Leyonhjelm is a maybe in New South Wales, and only Western Australia looks unlikely to return any micro-parties or independents.
• The Northern Territory News reported yesterday on an “independent poll” conducted in the Darwin seat of Solomon showed Labor’s Luke Gosling leading Country Liberal Party incumbent Natasha Griggs 61-39, suggesting a swing of 12%. The poll was conducted by MediaReach last Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 513. If that doesn’t sound entirely plausible, the reports Labor’s polling shows a “51-to-49 per cent two-party-preferred contest”, presumably in their own favour.
The re-election of David Leyonhjelm would be very disappointing
By most reports Griggs won’t be missed:
CTar1
Re prev. thread post. Baldrick is alive and well somewhere in Washington.
I’m not feeling the love for Leyonhjelm in Robertson at least.
No corflutes for the LDP, no HTVs being handed out, not even any placed under a rock somewhere. Their only presence is on facebook afaik.
People are having enough trouble grokking the new Senate voting rules and locating the party they traditionally vote for to take the extra time to search for a numpty like Leyonhjelm. The Shooters and Fishers sounds more obvious to that sort of person’s way of thinking.
Roy Hodgson, David Cameron and Jeremy Corbyn will soon be in a position to open a consultancy if they so chose.
Vote Liberal to import workers to do the jobs Young Australians should be doing with Apprenticeships!
Off to the Pre Poll! Again! : )
Woke up to the news that Newscorpse is throwing real mud at Tony Windsor’s character. They have ‘discovered’ six of his previous schoolmates (sic) who are accusing him of bullying and beating them.
It seems that it was normal at the school for older boys to punish the younger for transgressions (a la Eton) but Windsor ‘took it too far’.
Newscorpse is really out to get him, aren’t they.
In other news, Radio National is doing its best to pull down Labor.
The SmearStralian is groaning with the expectation set by editor Paul ‘The Ratbag’ Whittaker’s $600,000 bonus from Rupert if Labor loses.
Negativity towards all and sundry who may deprive Murdoch his influence over our democracy stretches beyond the ALP to buckets of bile tipped on:
– Tony Windsor, a ‘bully’ at school FFS
– Gillian Triggs
– Safe Schools advocates
Iceland!!!!
The Liberal pamphlet known as the Daily TurdBurgler shrieks:
LABOR BUDGET LIES OUT IN OPEN
It will be interesting to see how if any the Turd’s rampant barracking influences voting in key targets in Western Sydney. The RupertRooters are acutely aware of what their role in the larger campaign strategy is, edging towards an accomodation with Xenephon with this olive branch offerred:
“Labor could miss key Western Sydney seats
LABOR believes it could miss out on winning the key Western Sydney marginal seats of Macarthur and Lindsay because independent Nick Xenophon has told his candidates not to preference Labor.”
Ignore the fact this is a lie, X is running open tickets, the conditioning is starting that Nick – smiling visage attached – is really one of us.
Got me again William! Never mind.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. And would you believe that ICELAND! has just beaten England in the soccer semi-final?
Jobs and Growth? The number of apprentices employed throughout Australia has plummeted under the Coalition – and nowhere worse than in Western Sydney.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-apprentice-numbers-slump-in-key-marginal-seats-government-figures-reveal-20160627-gpsyp3.html
The CBA whistleblower sorted Cormann out on Q and A last night. BTW I thought the program last night was a shocker. Plibersek and Alan Jones were OK, Cormann was Cormann (enough said!) Richardson was insipid and Langton was all over the place. Tony Jones gave rambling from Cormann and Langton far too much time.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/qa-liberal-mathias-cormann-faces-grilling-for-avoiding-royal-commission-into-banks-20160627-gpt6pl.html
This SMH editorial gives Shorten credit for taking a bold, long term view on the economy.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/credit-to-bill-shorten-for-big-bold-policy-platform-20160626-gpshw4.html
Paul Bongiorno says Turnbull has hit his stride but big problems loom for him.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2016/06/27/election-campaign-final-week/
Peter Hartcher looks at the risks for Australia flowing from the Brexit vote.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/qa-liberal-mathias-cormann-faces-grilling-for-avoiding-royal-commission-into-banks-20160627-gpt6pl.html
Peta Credlin has predicted that chaos will reign with the SSM issue. I must say that in general I have appreciated her inputs since she joined Sky News.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-peta-credlin-predicts-coalition-chaos-on-gay-marriage-vote-20160627-gpt4wm.html
John Oliver warns the US that there are no f****g do-overs so don’t be tempted to elect Trump. *Language warning*
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/06/27/john-oliver-brexit-vote-is-a-warning-for-u-s-trump-support/
Professor Paula Gerber says that it is a plebiscite made in hell.
http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/australian-prime-minister-malcolm-turnbull-wrong-on-marriage-plebiscite-20160627-gpsoe6
The Sex Party launches a new ad targeting the Catholic church.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2016/06/27/sex-party-ad/
Urban Wronski wonders if Turnbull will lose his own seat.
https://urbanwronski.com/2016/06/27/will-malcolm-turnbull-lose-his-own-seat/
Section 2 . . .
Van Badham on Labor’s fight for fairness.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/27/labor-has-a-detailed-strategy-to-fight-for-fairness-this-matters
Laura Tingle writes that the budget debate will be much more important after the election. Google.
/news/politics/election/election-2016-budget-debate-will-be-more-important-after-the-election-20160627-gpswo1
Shocking suicide rates in the Kimberleys – seven times higher than nationally.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/06/27/kimberley-suicide-rate-among-the-highest-in-the-world/
Will the EU play hardball and give Britain the Greece treatment?
http://www.smh.com.au/world/brexit-hardball-the-european-union-will-treat-britain-like-greece-20160627-gpsm67.html
The SCOTUS overturns the horrible abortion laws in Texas and upsets the more rabid Republicans.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/abortion-rights-advocates-celebrate-after-us-supreme-court-strikes-down-restrictive-texas-law-20160627-gpt7io.html
This university report finds that the Coalition’s company tax cuts would benefit big business by $5.5b per year. It pooh poohs trickle down economics.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/company-tax-cut-benefit-to-nations-biggest-companies-would-be-55b-a-year-report-20160627-gpsvb6.html
Stephen Koukoulas says that Australia must be ready to pump cash into the economy if Brexit bites. He hopes that we could face such a crisis with the same alacrity as we did in the GFC rather than sticking with a crazed obsession with the budget balance.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/27/australia-must-consider-fiscal-stimulus-if-brexit-crisis-hurts-the-gobal-economy
Goldman Sachs has predicted a mild recession for the UK next year.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/goldman-sachs-economists-tip-mild-uk-recession-20160627-gpskvj.html
Be afraid, very afraid about the Coalition’s Medicare policy says Ash Ghebranious.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-coalitions-medicare-policy-be-afraid–be-very-afraid,9166
David Wroe suggests that Xenophon represents our populist mini-backlash.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/brexit-trump-xenophon-australias-populist-backlash-nowhere-near-britain-and-us-experts-say-20160627-gpt00o.html
Michael Pascoe fears Trump more than Brexit.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/donald-trump-a-bigger-worry-than-brexit-but-before-that-bogeyman-rises–20160626-gpsf0t.html
Section 3 . . .
Why so many of us are voting early this election.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-so-many-of-us-are-voting-early-this-year-20160627-gpsovo.html
“View from the Street” looks at the good luck and bad luck moments of the election campaigns.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-election-2016-what-good-luck-what-bad-luck-20160627-gpswpe.html
Kristina Keneally warns us to stand by for the avalanche of attack ads.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/27/strap-yourselves-in-folks-the-attack-ads-are-coming
Britain is still a world leader – in outstanding political leadership incompetence that is.
https://theconversation.com/brexit-act-in-haste-61673
Take the “Dutton or Dictator” quiz.
https://newmatilda.com/2016/06/27/dutton-or-dictator-quiz-fighting-bigotry-with-ridicule/
How is this for an animal act! Send the bastard down!
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/fake-gynaecologist-raffaele-di-paolo-gave-potentially-fatal-injections-vaginal-examinations-court-hears-20160627-gpsx27.html
Why are we not using the useful unit pricing tool in supermarkets?
https://theconversation.com/unit-pricing-saves-money-but-is-the-forgotten-shopping-tool-61379
Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner
David Pope conflate Brexit with the plight of the Great Barrier Reef.
Scary stuff from Ron Tandberg.
Mark David’s latest.
David Rowe – Release the Costings!
Jon Kudelka’s having a bit of trouble understanding the costings.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/75cc6e6d62900ced7a93272173b73b50
Meanwhile over in the Land of the Free, let’s see if Rupert can resurrect the Republican corpse swinging in the breeze.
“A slot at the Republican National Convention used to be a career-maker — a chance to make your name on the big stage and to catch the eye of the Republican donors and activists who make or break campaigns.
In the year of Trump: Not so much.
With the convention less than a month away, POLITICO contacted more than 50 prominent governors, senators and House members to gauge their interest in speaking. Only a few said they were open to it, and everyone else said they weren’t planning on it, didn’t want to or weren’t going to Cleveland at all — or simply didn’t respond.”
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/hardly-anybody-wants-to-speak-at-trumps-convention-224815#ixzz4CohxllTL
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook
Labor tries to do something about structural reform in the Budget, so naturally Ferguson asks wtte: “Was that the moment you knew you’d lost the election?”
I must say that Bill handled all her attacks calmly, smiling. Turnbull not quite as fluent .
Mungo’s Final Pre-Election Musings :
Thus Spake Mungo: Distrust
So at long last, next weekend, the voters get to choose, not that it’s much of a choice: which putative prime minister do they least distrust?
The last few days of the campaign degenerated into a screaming match between dodgy scare stories, a barrage of negativity which can only erode what little faith the punters have retained in the political process.
Neither Malcolm Turnbull nor Bill Shorten is believable, and neither will be believed: the absurd demonization of their respective opponents has gone way over the edge of credibility.
It’s not all negative. Shorten has his 100 positive policies – although no-one can remember more than about six of them. And Turnbull has his ten year national economic plan – although now he admits it’s really only a three year plan. He’ll only put it in a little way and if it hurts he’ll pull it out again.
But as we cut to the chase, both men seem more comfortable slandering their opponents than enthusing the public over their own visions, such as they are. If the voters aren’t scared they should be – not because of what the leaders are saying about each other, but of what they are saying about themselves.
MUCH MORE : http://www.echo.net.au/2016/06/thus-spake-mungo-distrust/
As luck would have it, having sworn off the publicly funded branch of the Murdoch empire for the rest of the campaign, on came the alarm, just in time for the 5.30 news. Before I could turn it off I was gleefully informed that ‘Independent economist Chris Richardson supports the coalition’s $50b tax cut to business, that Labor has been heavily criticising’
The resultant quote from Richardson would make little sense even fully awake, but you have to give them points for trying.
Only in Australia could the world’s largest media capitalist so successfully infiltrate a public broadcaster?
Didn’t watch 4 Corners, but it appears that Sarah Ferguson has learned her lesson very well.
How come the forestry industry has so much power?
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/is-victorias-native-forestry-industry-worth-it-at-5-million-a-job-20160623-gpqcui.html#ixzz4ComxwXlR
Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook
Speaking of the publicly funded arm of the Murdoch empire, just received the following e-mail re the petition mentioned earlier:
“27 Jun 2016 — Friends when we reached 1,000 supporters we emailed ABC management to raise our concerns. It would be foolish of anyone to think the ABC will publicly acknowledge bias, however by “calling out” what has been a blatant support of the Coalition side of the political debate, (to the exclusion of all others), we can only hope for a more balanced coverage over the next 4 days.
Stay engaged, call out bias when you see it and remember the fight will continue to ensure our beloved ABC does not become a publicly funded megaphone for the right wing conservatives and a media mogul intent on controlling all aspects of public discourse.
Cheers
Slow Burn”
adrian Tuesday, June 28, 2016 at 7:39 am
Speaking of the publicly funded arm of the Murdoch empire, just received the following e-mail re the petition mentioned earlier:
Stay engaged, call out bias when you see it and remember the fight will continue to ensure our beloved ABC does not become a publicly funded megaphone for the right wing conservatives and a media mogul intent on controlling all aspects of public discourse.
Cheers
Slow Burn”
**********************************************************
The script was written by Murdoch & Co INC many moons ago – the fix was in – the last 8 weeks are theatre …… trying to keep the punters in excited speculative fixation of their side winning
After a period of respect for winning, Malcolm will be tossed aside like a rag doll and Rupert & Co will get their quid pro quo from their new figurehead to lead us out of the wilderness ……. and further wealth and power will flow to their empires ….
After the UK and Oz, Rupert will be going for the hat-trick in the US later in the year ….
This is a disturbing article which I hope is a complete fabrication.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-talk-turns-to-bill-shortens-future-as-labor-hopes-fade-after-costings-20160627-gpsts8.html
Even if there isn’t much of a swing to Labor on election night, Shorten has performed extremely well as leader, and has brought the party together.
As I have posted often enough before, I believe he took (or, more likely, was required to take) a package of measures to the election that was skewed too far to the left and lacked a general coherent theme to match the Coalition’s corny but catchy “jobs and growth”. As the campaign wore on, Labor strategists seemed to realise this and decided to mint a brand new campaign centrepiece: “save Medicare”. This initially got a lot of attention, but I think it’s ended up rather backfiring on Labor.
Anyway, I don’t think Shorten can be made to take too much responsibility for these shortcomings of the campaign. And he certainly should be given another term as leader: he has been excellent in campaign events, interviews (including last night with the yappy terrier Sarah Ferguson), debates, etc. It would be an enormous backward step to replace him with Albo after the election. But, unfortunately IMO, the party membership has a big say in the matter and, as we have seen with the British Labour Party, they can sometimes make counter-intuitive calls.
Indeed, a shift to Albo after the election would parallel British Labor’s situation quite nicely. Ed Miliband took a rather incoherent, more left-leaning (compared to Blair-Brown) package of policies to the last election there: with an overall theme of “we’ll reverse anything Cameron and Osborne did that you don’t like”. It didn’t work, but the party’s response was to install a leader even further to the left.
Now, at a moment of great opportunity for Labour as the Tories are literally tearing themselves apart, Corbyn has taken Labor into a position of almost total irrelevance.
If, as I expect, the LNP are returned and then the delcons have a crack at Turnbull in a year’s time, Shorten will be in an ideal position to pounce. It would be insane to have anyone else leading the ALP at that time.
Morning all. So Iceland caused Brexit II! This time a majority of English voters were probably not in favour.
As for the polls I take some comfort from William’s Senate work. If it is a coalition minority government, it will have difficulty passing its more odious legislation in the Senate. Obviously, the Senate still depends on a lot of detailed assumptions and could vary.
The English are going to be devastated by losing to Iceland, a country with a population of 320,000. It will be up there with Brexit. I was there when they were knocked out of the World Cup by Germany in 2010 and they said it indicted the whole country including its education system, it’s ethos, complacency, insularity etc etc. this will be WAAAY worse. Wait for the headlines.
meher
It’s Massola. Nuff said.
There is nothing all that “strange” about the NT Solomon poll, William. The Giles “government” means the Coalition stink in the NT and the high public service numbers (and cuts) up there don’t do ’em any favours , either. 61% may be pushing it, but I’d expect a far bigger swing than the ALP claim of 51-49 suggests!
Wall to wall government messaging on RN Breakfast, I really hope that Bowen gets a good long slice tomorrow to respond to the Liberals’ costings.
Interesting to see ALP people here who decry the Greens mirroring Liberal anti-Labor messaging so keen themselves to mirror the Daily Mail’s lines on Corbyn. Those who bemoan his electoral failure would do well to look at Labour’s actual electoral results since his leadership at by-elections and local levels. Almost without exception, Labour has recorded swings in its favour, sometimes very handily (for example the Oldham West by-election that the press had talked up as a possible loss to UKIP, but which resulted in a record 62% proportion of the vote for Labour, and a winning margin of 39%).
The idea that Corbyn is an electoral liability is one made up from whole cloth by the UK’s gutter press, and it’s odd to see it taken up so eagerly by Laborists here who spend so much time defending Shorten against similar charges.
One aspect I’ve not seen mentioned so far in the criticism of Crobyn for not forcefully siding with Cameron in the Brexit referendum is an acknowledgement of the consequences for Labor of forcefully siding with Cameron in the Scottish independence referendum of 2014. Corbyn hasn’t “allowed Labour to be wedged”, he’s avoided it. Had he put Labour firmly on the Remain side, then had Remain got up, there would have been huge slabs of Leave voters changing their general election allegiance from Labour to UKIP in 2020.
OlivierK: Corbyn put Labour on the Remain side!
Pull the other one…
Oops, sorry, misread you. Well he certainly should have put Labour on the remain side. His failure to do so is why he is now facing a walkout of his shadow cabinet.
Windsor refers ‘gutter’ article to lawyers
Former independent MP Tony Windsor has referred to his lawyers allegations he was a bully at school nearly 50 years ago.
Mr Windsor, who is running against Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce, described the allegations published in The Australian newspaper as “gutter” journalism, saying he would not dignify it with comment.
“It should be seen in the context of a very close election campaign,” he said in a statement on Tuesday.
Mr Joyce has distanced himself from the story.
“I just don’t even want to engage in that, it has got nothing to do with me,” he told ABC radio.
“To be honest I don’t even need the story, I don’t want the story, I don’t want anything to do with it.”
http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/windsor-refers-gutter-article-to-lawyers/news-story/751eca5e0e16de67175cce6807a6fa5a
Crickey, Diogenes. Did Iceland win?? ? My daughter and I were going about the extreme improbability of it, given the population difference, yesterday. Good on ’em!
Whoops “going” = “joking”. You’d think I’d remember the bloody spell checker snafus by now!
From BirdLife Australia
‘The NSW Government is proposing changes to its nature laws* that will increase the extinction risk for our unique plant and animals, including Regent Honeyeaters, Swift Parrots and Powerful Owls!
The Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientist say the changes would result in “more degraded land, more damage to river systems, increased carbon emissions, and the loss of habitat critical to the survival of threatened species.”
If they become law, the proposed changes will:
allow landholders to self-assess land-clearing. This is alarming because most landholders do not have the expertise to identify threatened species or ecological communities.·
increase the use of indirect biodiversity offsets. This means that landholders will be able pay money into a fund rather than locally creating or protecting habitat equivalent to that lost
remove the requirement to ‘maintain or improve biodiversity’
allow landholders to legally shoot and kill Purple Swamphens, Galahs, Cockatoos and all corvid species without a license’
Another ‘victory’ for the Opportunists, the Trots and the Oxygen Thieves
‘Mr Joyce has distanced himself from the story.
“I just don’t even want to engage in that, it has got nothing to do with me,” he told ABC radio.
“To be honest I don’t even need the story, I don’t want the story, I don’t want anything to do with it.”’
Slash. Run.
Gutless Sleaze.
Oliver
Well said
Meher et al.
Remember that the current mob of UK Laborites essentially destroyed UK Labor by siding so stronglyu against the Scottish independence. The result was that they lost the heartland of UK Labor ie Scotland. This was a monumental stuff up, which I think had much in common with the factional play within Labor in the RGR wars. Labor playing games without actually making the effort to consider the impact on the actual voters.
Your point is essentially the same point I was making when I comented that UK Labor had already lost Scotland. If they sided too strongly with the remain cam,p they would lose the working class whites to UKIP.
You have of course rightly pointed out that Corbyn, by NOT being wedged has kept alive the strong probability that UK Labour can recapture that working class white vote. It looks as if the parliamentarians are set to repeat the mistake of Brown and co over Scotland. if by siding too strongly with the Remain people the UK Labor loses Wales then I cannot see how Labor could ever govern again.
SIGUR!
The Icelanders are used to victory over the UK:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cod_Wars
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/credit-to-bill-shorten-for-big-bold-policy-platform-20160626-gpshw4.html
Some willing moments in the Cod Wars
http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=utube+iceland+cod+wars&view=detail&mid=7114B7A367689A9A5CDD7114B7A367689A9A5CDD&FORM=VIRE
Bw
FMD
Lizzie
Meher’s bible?
Lizzie
This is, IMO, a national tragedy. There is so very much that is very good in Labor’s suite of policies.
Turnbull and Hunt do not give a flying Eff for biodiversity. The $66 billion in tax cuts will in time force a GST. The wealth gap will widen. The grand IPA project of destroying civic society, the social contract, public health and public education will proceed apace.
And all the Greens can do is seek to deoxygenate Labor.
Tragic, really.
Australians’ trust in politicians hits two-decade low
Adversarial politics has eaten away at Australians’ trust in democracy, with more and more voters breaking away from the major parties, a survey has revealed.
Despite two decades of economic growth, Professor Mark Evans of the University of Canberra Institute for Governance and Public Analysis said Australians’ trust in government and politicians are now at their lowest levels since 1993 – and Aussies’ loathing of political “blood sports” is to blame.
‘It has become harder to know what each party stands for’: Sophie Roper.
‘It has become harder to know what each party stands for’: Sophie Roper. Photo: Elesa Kurtz
“We found [Australians] are interested in politics but they’re not interested in the type of politics that are on offer in Canberra,” he said.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/australians-trust-in-politicians-hits-twodecade-low-20160623-gpqq9r.html#ixzz4Cp4itjUH
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook
CTar1
I’m torn between going into retreat until the election is over, or suffering through every minute alongside Labor. Can’t imagine how the candidates are feeling.
CTaR1
It is just so depressing. There is a mass extinction event going on and all the bastard NSW premier can think of doing is to speed it up.
Boerwar
The report on NSW land clearing is sickening.
Lizzie
Here in Brisbane I think I can safely say that the candidates are feeling cold. Not weather for prepolling.
Boerwar
God botherer Baird taking this part of the bible’s advice. So if a species becomes extinct it is obviously God’s will , else he would have saved it. So let’s fire up the chainsaws and crank up the bulldozers.
” Be fruitful, and multiply, and replenish the earth, and subdue it: and have dominion over the fish of the sea, and over the fowl of the air, and over every living thing that moveth upon the earth.”