With four days to go …

Newspoll state and demographic breakdowns, Senate intelligence, and a strange result from the Northern Territory.

A few bits and pieces to report:

• The Australian has published Newspoll breakdowns derived from its last three polls by the usual range of indicators: state, gender, age and metro/non-metro. The most interesting finding is that the Coalition has recovered in Western Australia, where it records a 4% swing to Labor compared with 7% in the previous breakdown of polling conducted in April and May.

• Appearing on Andrew Bolt’s program on Sky News, Peta Credlin offered an appraisal of the Senate situation that chimes very well with my own Senate analyses, suggesting the Nick Xenophon Team will win three seats in South Australia, Jacqui Lambie’s ticket will win at least one seat in Tasmania, both Glenn Lazarus and Pauline Hanson could win in Queensland (see my post below this one), Derryn Hinch will win in Victoria, David Leyonhjelm is a maybe in New South Wales, and only Western Australia looks unlikely to return any micro-parties or independents.

• The Northern Territory News reported yesterday on an “independent poll” conducted in the Darwin seat of Solomon showed Labor’s Luke Gosling leading Country Liberal Party incumbent Natasha Griggs 61-39, suggesting a swing of 12%. The poll was conducted by MediaReach last Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 513. If that doesn’t sound entirely plausible, the reports Labor’s polling shows a “51-to-49 per cent two-party-preferred contest”, presumably in their own favour.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,007 thoughts on “With four days to go …”

Comments Page 2 of 21
1 2 3 … 21

  1. Morning all

    I really enjoyed the commentary of Peta Credlin last night on Sky. She has by proxy put Turnbull on notice. Exciting times after the election

  2. God botherer Baird taking this part of the bible’s advice. So if a species becomes extinct it is obviously God’s will , else he would have saved

    What a crock of medieval shit!

  3. Lizzie

    Dont get too down in the dumps. If Turnbull and Co manage to get over the line, they are going to be in for a torrid time. I can see The gloves well and truly coming off from team Labor. Watch this space

  4. BK

    I borrowed the argument from some Repug politicians who argued that climate change is not real but IF it did happen it would be Dog’s will/plan. Sooooo doing anything to stop it would be defying Dog’s will and that is a vey bad thing to do. How’s that for nutjobbery ?

  5. bk @ #52 Tuesday, June 28, 2016 at 8:54 am

    God botherer Baird taking this part of the bible’s advice. So if a species becomes extinct it is obviously God’s will , else he would have saved

    What a crock of medieval shit!

    Is there a special school where the good folk who love the Lord learn to be utter bastards towards their fellows?

  6. BW,

    BirdLife Australia was originally the Royal Australian Ornithologist Union, which was founded in 1901. They changed name to Birds Australia, and then a few years ago amalgamated with Bird Observation & Conservation Australia (which was founded in 1905 as the Bird Observers Club) to create BirdLife Australia. BirdLife International is the peak world organisation for the study and conservation of birds.

    It speaks volumes when you use a non-partisan organisation that is working to promote the conservation of Australia’s endangered species for cheap point scoring, especially when both the Greens and the ALP have supported the campaign.

    ““With over 130 species of birds now classified as threatened—and that list is constantly being added to—BirdLife Australia is advocating for policies that will save birds, restore nature and improve people’s lives,” she said.

    “We’re calling on all sides of the political spectrum to ensure our threatened birds and the habitats on which they rely are protected and conserved.”

    With last night’s pledge, the Labor Party has joined the Greens in being the second major party to recognise that the current set of nature laws is failing to adequately protect nature.

    “BirdLife Australia is delighted that two out of three of the major parties have now recognised the need for a new national environmental framework to uphold our responsibility as stewards of Australia’s unique biodiversity.”

    ”We eagerly await an announcement from the Coalition regarding their environment policy priorities.””

  8. ANC RN Breakfast (sorry if already posted)

    Morrison as main guest – that’s now 7 Lib 2 Lab last two weeks ……

  11. What I find interesting re. all the Labour politicians deserting their leader after Brexit is that many of them wanted the UK to stay but their electorates obviously voted to leave, and often by significant margins. They were supposed to represent their constituents – but obviously they were representing someone else.
    They should step down entirely and allow their electorates to select people who will be true representatives.

  13. William has advised that ‘the Australian has published Newspoll breakdowns derived from its last three polls by the usual range of indicators’ compared to the 2013 election.
    https://theaustralianatnewscorpau.files.wordpress.com/2016/06/web_news_fed_elect_newspoll.pdf

    A few interesting things come from data from Newspoll.

    1. Nick Xenephon is having a profound impact on the primary vote in SA. NXT is taking PV from all 3 of the orthodox parties. Coalition seats are the most vulnerable-
    SA PV Coalition -12.9 Labor -7.7 Greens -2.3 Others +22.9

    2. Reminded that PUP did very well in PV in QLD in 2013, it appears that ex PUP voters have surprisingly switched to Labor for this election along some 2013 Coalition voters. Labor should do much better in QLD this time around.
    QLD PV Coalition -2.7 Labor +7.2 Greens + 0.8 Others -5.3

    3. In WA, the Coalition PV has suffered, but not all of it has gone to Labor. Enough to add more than 2 seats in the Labor column ? We shall see.
    WA PV Coalition -5.2 Labor +3.2 Greens + 1.3 Others +0.7

    4. In Victoria, the fall in Coalition PV is flowing equally to Labor and the Greens.
    VIC PV Coalition -3.7 Labor +2.2 Greens + 2.2 Others -0.7

    Finally, the bad news for Labor in primary vote share is in NSW where the fall in Coalition PV is not flowing to Labor. In fact Labor’s PV has not changed in NSW since the 2013 election

    35.0

    in these three most recent Newspolls.
    NSW PV Coalition -4.6 Labor 0.0 Greens + 2.7 Others -1.9

    Newspolls 3.6 % 2PP swing to Labor in NSW is very close to their National 2PP swing, 3.5. Labor has a better record of turning swings into seats in NSW according to Antony Green. I hope he is right.

  14. “It is just so depressing. There is a mass extinction event going on and all the bastard NSW premier can think of doing is to speed it up.”

    People in NSW will soon realise that there are few depths to which BabyFace Baird will not descend.

  15. The NT News is the local Labor Gazette, day in day out they attack the CLP as does the ALP and their polls are pretty bad , at the last Territory election the had the ALP streets ahead and burst into tears when they lost.

  16. Didn’t watch 4 Corners, but it appears that Sarah Ferguson has learned her lesson very well.

    I figured out last night what annoyed me about Sarah Ferguson.

    She never, ever smiles, or even looks pleasant. The expression on her is face is one of permanent disdain.

    She doesn’t ask questions so much as she makes accusations. She is like a detective interviewing accused caught in the act. Cold. Without feeling. Forensic. Hostile.

    All those detective shows are there in her face – Law & Order, Prime Suspect etc. She give the impression of someone who does not take any pleasure from what she does, and does not wish to give the person under the spotlight any hope that they will be believed.

    It’s a cold, repellent technique. Her interview personna is more like that blank, pitiless face of an executioner than someone who is trying to present a prime time, high quality television show.

    She probably thinks that it makes her look “professional”, and perhaps helps her promote the image of herself as a counterpoint to the giggling, girlish Leigh Sales. Sales hectors and rants, sounding cross and cranky. While it’s annoying, there’s a sign of life in Sales. Ferguson carries herself like a bureaucratic zombie – dead yet not dead, unhappy and determined for everyone else to be unhappy, informing some poor victim grudgingly of their rights before they go to trial, and then to jail.

    There is no warmth to her, no joy, and no compassion.

  17. Bushfire

    She doesn’t ask questions so much as she makes accusations. She is like a detective interviewing accused caught in the act. Cold. Without feeling. Forensic. Hostile.

    Pinned like a butterfly. I found her quite repellent, and wondered if she were ill.

  19. Bushfire Bill Tuesday, June 28, 2016 at 9:15 am

    “Didn’t watch 4 Corners, but it appears that Sarah Ferguson has learned her lesson very well.”

    I figured out last night what annoyed me about Sarah Ferguson.

    She never, ever smiles, or even looks pleasant. The expression on her is face is one of permanent disdain.

    She doesn’t ask questions so much as she makes accusations. She is like a detective interviewing accused caught in the act. Cold. Without feeling. Forensic. Hostile.

    *********************************************

    Totally agree, Bushfire Bill …… I much prefer the approach of Jane Hutcheon/One Plus One …. who most decidedly elicits better and deeper responses/results from her interviewees ….due to her very friendly animated manner

  20. So has everyone given up? Seems premature. I wouldn’t believe any 2PP figures to much, the preferences are surely volatile?

  21. “So has everyone given up? Seems premature. I wouldn’t believe any 2PP figures to much, the preferences are surely volatile?”

    Perhaps people have been consuming too much of the MSM product for their own good.

  22. Mike Baird is just following the example set by Campbell Newman in Qld. During his premiership there was massive clearing .
    The tragic thing about it all is once the vegetation & biodiversity is gone then there is no bringing it back for a very long time; so even if there is a change of govt. the damage is already done.
    And, because of the way we switch political parties every six to ten years there is no way to set a long term plan in place – the LNP will just tear it all up once they get back in power.
    Humans are there own worst enemy and ultimately they will eliminate themselves.

  23. Barners must be in desperate trouble to be throwing all of this dirt. I would have thought he’s no chance now.

  24. Shiftaling

    It aint over yet. In my neck of woods, I am actually hearing that Labor’s internals are much better than published polls. Would love for it to be accurate!!

  25. Shiftailing

    I wouldn’t believe any 2PP figures to much, the preferences are surely volatile?

    Agree. We’ll find out on the day.

  26. I caught scraps of Q&A on the radio last night. It was a strange mixture – economist friend of the LNP who smiled like a Cheshire Cat when Hockey’s budget came down – Aboriginal academic who found it hard to put three concepts together, and for mine, seemed very well disposed to the LNP – Cormann – same, same and Tanya doing it all on her own quite well. The surprise to me was Alan Jones…..last night, and I can’t speak for him on his day programme, came across as surprisingly even-handed and was quite thoughtful. I can see why he is where he is. He does seem to have the ability to cut to the heart of a matter very quickly and call it for what it is. I did not agree with all he had to say, but it was not all anti-Labor by any means.

  27. I think the ALP will do quite well in the election but not make it to govt. Would not be surprised to see 15-16 seats gain on the night.
    Bill Shorten has nothing to worry about despite some silly commentators in the MSM.
    He has done a very good job of making the ALP a thoughtful, stable, ideas platform; ready to contrast themselves from the turmoil that will inevitably engulf the minority coalition govt. after the election.
    A future solid majority beckons, just not at this election

  28. The picture of fish travelling up a flooded road in NT is rather telling.

    Fish are the most threatened group among Earth’s freshwater vertebrates. On average, freshwater fish populations have declined by 76% over the past 40 years. Damaged fish communities and declining fisheries characterise global freshwater environments, including those in Australia.

    Fish migrate to complete their life cycles, but water-resource developments disrupt river connectivity and migrations, threatening biological diversity and fisheries.

    Millions of dams, weirs and smaller barriers – for storage and irrigation, road and rail transport and hydropower schemes – block the migration of fish in rivers worldwide.

    These barriers serve our needs for water supply, transport and energy. But, by obstructing fish migrations, they also degrade ecological integrity and reduce food security.

    https://theconversation.com/we-can-have-fish-and-dams-heres-how-61424

  29. The worst thing would be for Labor to believe the hype, hopefully if they have good internal polling it will give them the fortitude to really fire up the blowtorch in the last week.

  31. Lizzie and Bushfire
    I am a slow learner. However, after that strong leader Mr. John Howard told the post election admirers about his core promises, I knew that the Liberals (which in itself is a lie) are a self serving pack of (here insert your own adjective).
    Sarah Ferguson’s objective is to assist Sarah Ferguson. I like the old detective shows and welcome the return of John Thaw in “Morse”. Sarah would not fit into any of those shows which were populated by very talented persons.
    I no longer watch 7:30 or any of the other interview type or panel shows – except for “the Drum” and “Insiders”; these two only to see what the RW fwits are saying.
    I saw the add about Tony Windsor this morning. What I would like to know is this: was the person supposedly beaten with a riding crop a future NLP voter?

  32. I took a look at last night’s 730 earlier. IMHO Leigh has been dragged over the carpet for being TOO obvious in her preference for Turnbull over Shorten, thus she gave Bowen a much better hearing.

    Sadly it was followed by 4corners where the lack of even-handedness was less subtle.

    I was REALLY disappointed in a journalist who has, in the past, shown impartiality in her reporting, conflating arguments and making exaggerated challenges. Sigh. If Labor gets close, it won’t be because it has had a fair hearing.

  34. Why the despond? Polls are still as near to 50:50 as possible, lots of people haven’t made up their minds, and who reads the useless newspapers any more?

  36. I agree re: Ferguson, I don’t mind harsh questioning in fact I think it’s imperative and that politicians need to be able to deal with that. Some of the questions were just silly though

  37. “Polls are still as near to 50:50 as possible, lots of people haven’t made up their minds, and who reads the useless newspapers any more?”

    Unfortunately they still listen to and watch the useless ABC…

  38. And this mob together with the msm accuse Labor of a scare campaign. What a frickin disgrace

    FIREFIGHTERS have criticised campaigners wearing CFA shirts outside pre-poll booths with one brigade making a public call to disassociate itself from the push.

    Coalition campaigners wearing black T shirts with the phrase “Hands off Our CFA” have been stationed outside pre-poll booths in the Corangamite electorate since the start of pre-poll voting a fortnight ago.

    The Queenscliff Fire Brigade took to social media to distance itself from the campaign ahead of the main polling day on the weekend.

  43. The fallout from Brexit shows how useless the Murdoch dominated press is. The Murdoch press promoted the lies peddled by the Leave campaigns instead of challenging on facts.

    Murdoch pure propaganda sheets. Not newspapers and should not be called such.

  44. AustralianLabor: Bill: If we win this election, it will mean is that the climate skeptics will be told to head back into their caves in the Liberal Party

  45. I have just caught up with the local Labor Gilmore leadership. They are confident that Labor will win. Bill is visiting later today.

  47. Regarding England’s Euro 2016 exit, it is, at least, probably better for the English psyche to have quixotically lost early to Iceland than to have been dumped out in the quarterfinals by France.

  48. ADRIAN – People who watch and listen to the ABC are pretty discriminating. I really don’t think the ABC changes many votes, hopeless as it is.

  49. Lizzie

    What particularly shits me re Sarah Henderson. Is that she behaves and rallies as if she were a state MP and not a Fed MP.

Comments Page 2 of 21
1 2 3 … 21

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *