Fairfax-Ipsos: 50-50; Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition

The final Ipsos and Galaxy polls of the campaign record little or no change, with both suggesting the election is still up for grabs.

The final Ipsos poll for Fairfax has the two parties back at 50-50, after Labor led 51-49 a fortnight ago, although Labor maintains its 51-49 lead on respondent-allocated preferences. The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 13% for the Greens (down one). On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is up two on approval to 49% and down one on disapproval to 41%, while Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 50%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 48-34 to 49-35. The poll of 1377 respondents was conducted Monday to Wednesday.

The News Corporation tabloids have a Galaxy poll of 1768 respondents which give the Coalition a lead of 51-49 on two-party preferred, compared with 50-50 in a similar poll a week ago. The primary votes are 43% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one).

Today’s Advertiser has two seat polls from Galaxy Research, which find Kate Ellis leading Liberal challenger 53-47 in Adelaide, and Mark Butler reported as leading 76-33 in Port Adelaide (although this really should add up to 100), with the Nick Xenophon Team presumably running third in both cases since the report doesn’t say otherwise. The samples on the polls are a little over 500.

Three polls have emerged from Campaign for Australian Aid, conducted last Thursday to Saturday by Community Engagement – a national one, and seat polls from Sturt and Higgins. The Higgins poll is particularly interesting in that it suggests Kelly O’Dwyer faces a very serious threat from the Greens. Greens candidate Jason Ball leads Labor’s Carl Katter by 26% to 21%, and O’Dwyer’s 44% is low enough that it would be touch and go for her after preferences. The Sturt poll has the Nick Xenophon Team clearing the first hurdle by outpolling Labor 21% to 18%, but with Christopher Pyne’s primary vote of 48% being high enough to keep him safe. The national poll of 861 respondents has primary vote results of Coalition 40%, Labor 31% and Greens 11%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,153 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 50-50; Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition”

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    Paul Edbrooke MP retweeted
    Sam Dastyari
    14m14 minutes ago
    Sam Dastyari ‏@samdastyari
    ‘You can have Malcolm Turnbull – or you can have Medicare – but you can’t have both.’ Shorten nails it.

  2. Still shaking my head at this Sky focus group thing. Just shows how so many people really don’t give a fig for politics.

  3. This Sky News mini forum in Rooty Hill is fascinating (Spiers with 13 undecideds).
    Their concerns all resonate with labor talking points – “don’t trust Turnbull, worried about penalty rates, gay marriage yeah why not, get on with it).
    There could be some undercurrents here the MSM are not picking up. Very encouraging

  4. BURGEY – People on this blog say labor should have said this, or said that. Labor knew what it was doing. Making sure that disengaged voters carried just one big thought into the polling booth. In this case, it is “Medicare”.

  5. willziz: #BreakingNews

    Boris is OUT

    Boris Johnson has just confirmed he will NOT be running for conservative leader and PM. #BorisJohnson #Libdems

  6. People on this blog say labor should have said this, or said that. Labor knew what it was doing. Making sure that disengaged voters carried just one big thought into the polling booth. In this case, it is “Medicare”.

    Yeah, made the same comment earlier. Labor don’t need to give people who are already going to vote for them (or send a pref their way) a thousand reasons more to vote for them even if this government provides at least that many reasons.

    Labor needs to give those hundreds of thousands of disengaged voters just ONE really compelling reason to put the ALP candidate above the Lib/Nat candidate.

    I’d be shocked if Labor aren’t getting excellent results for Medicare being that compelling reason in the focus groups. The way the Libs and their media mouthpieces reacted last week shows they were feeling it. The tactic from them now has been to pretend it didn’t bite and they’re going to win so as to try and not talk about it.

    We’ll see on Saturday night who’s got it wrong and who got it right.

  7. Yes Burgey the ultimate gutless Spiv.

    But I reckon the real Spivs in the City who are looking at massive losses might have had a word in his shell-like to the effect of ‘don’t bother son, you fucked us and we’re not going to forget’.

  8. Someone please correct me if I’m wrong but my impression of previous elections is that there was usually a frontrunner by this point in the campaign. The fact that Labor still has people guessing just two days before the election suggests to me that the Medicare campaign was extraordinarily successful in preventing a clear drift back to the government, hence the desperation on the part of the government to use Brexit, and the desperation of some in the media to declare the Medicare campaign a disaster and the Coalition the winner.

  9. From previous thread:

    Hey Tim Brooke-Taylor got fat

    No wait it’s Boris Johnson blaming the EU for the consequences of Tory Austerity measures

  10. Hmmm. My twitter feed is completely absent of preening journalists, and has been for the last hour or so.

    Wonder why?

  11. J341983 – It would be good to to see Labor defy the odds and win for no other reason than to see the CPG utterly humiliated.

  12. The doyen of RWNJ, Professor David Flint just tweeted this

    “Fairfax Ipsos dead heat poll demonstrates this election is Turnbull’s great gift to Labor who will vastly improve their position.”

    Let the bloodletting begin

  13. Oops – missed the new thread
    Sound familiar? from an article about Brexit:
    “When leaders choose the facts that suit them, ignore the facts that don’t and, in the absence of suitable facts, simply make things up, people don’t stop believing in facts – they stop believing in leaders.
    The wolf does not discriminate. As Aesop reminds us at the end of the fable: “Nobody believes a liar, even when he’s telling the truth.”
    Could equally apply to Australian politics.

  14. There is one thing that Labor should have done beyond a shadow of a doubt: cobbled together the $20 billion that would have got them under the Coalition in terms of the deficit.
    Nobody at all expects the budget assumptions to last for more than a month. Many expect them to go seriously awry.
    $20 billion is a fraction of the forward estimates budget.

  15. Boerwar, do you know any regular punters who would actually change their votes on that detail? Labor’s issues on economics are deeper and actually will require time in government with a good run of luck to change.

  16. bug1 @ #2066 Thursday, June 30, 2016 at 8:59 pm

    “Ipsos Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 40 (+1) ALP 33 (0) GRN 13 (-1) Others 14”
    Allow 4% of others to NXT (essential result), 5% to LNP, 5% ALP
    Allow 80% of GRN to ALP = 10%, 3% to LNP, gives;
    LNP 48, ALP 52

    I’m taking 83% of GRN preferences to ALP, 47% of Others to ALP.

  17. boerwar
    about deficit budget yes. its commonsense. why didn’t they do such a thing???? play liberals at our game

    hopefully that moment has passed hopefully

  18. But wolves do discriminate. To the nth degree.
    They can smell things like minute amounts pus from a large distance which tells them which animal to target out of a herd of hundreds of prey animals. There are all sorts of other cues that they observe.
    Packs do not want to expend energy hunting healthy animals.
    And the sicker their prey the less likely it is that the prey will injure a member of the pack.
    In a nice bit of evolutionary reciprocity, individuals have ways of showing that they are really, truly healthy. This is why some species of antelope do mighty leaps when the herd is being cased by cheetah and lion. The cats watch carefully and go for the antelope that does bad leaps.

  19. Remember, the other issue is that NXT might have 4% national support in polls, but they aren’t running in every seat, in fact, not all that many.

  20. Never thought Bill would last as long as he has, or to keep the campaign close. I would definitely give him some credit. Unfortunately for him (or any Labor leader after the past years) you can be tarred with a lot easily. The first time I saw him (Parl Sec for Disability) on Qanda I thought he was warm and generous. While I’m no longer as naive, hes is definitely a contender this election and has come a long way in 8 weeks.

    I thought Turnbull would have smoked Labor, even though as far as I’m concerned hes moved from a conviction politician to just another politician and sold out most of Australia for his chance. Turnbull always appealed to people like me as an urbane, tech savy and more progressive leader than for the most part the Coalition provides. While I’m not a swinging voter I was considering a Turnbull government to potentially be exciting and transformative for the country. However, now I think I’ve seen that Turnbull cant escape the more conservative elements of his party and is running from his beliefs. Thats the bit that scares me. How quickly will he drop people like me when his party reacts negatively in the future? I think I already know the answer.

  21. Confessions

    Not so sure. Boris could have been Britain’s Abbott. A total disaster that helps get Labour back in the game.

  22. Boris might not have courage or a spine.

    But I suspect that the most important thing is that he doesn’t have the numbers.

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