The final Ipsos poll for Fairfax has the two parties back at 50-50, after Labor led 51-49 a fortnight ago, although Labor maintains its 51-49 lead on respondent-allocated preferences. The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 13% for the Greens (down one). On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is up two on approval to 49% and down one on disapproval to 41%, while Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 50%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 48-34 to 49-35. The poll of 1377 respondents was conducted Monday to Wednesday.
The News Corporation tabloids have a Galaxy poll of 1768 respondents which give the Coalition a lead of 51-49 on two-party preferred, compared with 50-50 in a similar poll a week ago. The primary votes are 43% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one).
Today’s Advertiser has two seat polls from Galaxy Research, which find Kate Ellis leading Liberal challenger 53-47 in Adelaide, and Mark Butler reported as leading 76-33 in Port Adelaide (although this really should add up to 100), with the Nick Xenophon Team presumably running third in both cases since the report doesn’t say otherwise. The samples on the polls are a little over 500.
Three polls have emerged from Campaign for Australian Aid, conducted last Thursday to Saturday by Community Engagement – a national one, and seat polls from Sturt and Higgins. The Higgins poll is particularly interesting in that it suggests Kelly O’Dwyer faces a very serious threat from the Greens. Greens candidate Jason Ball leads Labor’s Carl Katter by 26% to 21%, and O’Dwyer’s 44% is low enough that it would be touch and go for her after preferences. The Sturt poll has the Nick Xenophon Team clearing the first hurdle by outpolling Labor 21% to 18%, but with Christopher Pyne’s primary vote of 48% being high enough to keep him safe. The national poll of 861 respondents has primary vote results of Coalition 40%, Labor 31% and Greens 11%.
lord haw haw of arabia @ #40 Thursday, June 30, 2016 at 9:21 pm
Alright, we can all go home now, there’s no point in continuing.
Rossmcg: “Boris could have been Britain’s Abbott. A total disaster that helps get Labour back in the game.”
Certainly, if Labour wasn’t being led by Britain’s answer to Lee Rhiannon.
Shellbell, it’s been quite dark hasn’t it.
Rod Hagen (previous thread):
“Godfrey – TV Producer: All I can say is, if that’s what you’re going to say, I suggest a very modern suit, hi-tech furniture, high-energy yellow wallpaper, abstract paintings. In fact, everything to disguise the absence of anything new in the actual speech. “
Note behaviour here.
Warning: the carnivore behaves as carnivores do.
http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=Predators+of+Gazelle%27s&&view=detail&mid=CED956736F84DA0DC9E7CED956736F84DA0DC9E7&FORM=VRDGAR
Looks like galaxy has both majors 3% points higher than Ipsos – but still same ratio. It’ll go down to the prefs and individual seats. NXT in SA might be the thorn in the Libs’ side … while Greens carve away from ALP, NXT seems to carving away from Libs in SA. Greens prefs to ALP over 80% … but what will the NXT prefs register for Libs? Could be crucial.
‘J341983
Thursday, June 30, 2016 at 9:21 pm
Boerwar, do you know any regular punters who would actually change their votes on that detail? Labor’s issues on economics are deeper and actually will require time in government with a good run of luck to change.’
Not one, on an individual basis. But it feeds straight into bias confirmation for the dominant agenda item of the election.
The Ipsos result is intriguing, although it is heading in the same direction as Newspoll and Galaxy in suggesting a swing to the Coalition, so I don’t think it’s particularly good news for Labor.
However, it does suggest that the Government ending up with fewer than 80 seats remains a possibility. But I’m sticking to my prediction of 82. I’ll be happy if I’m wrong.
Thanks, Jaeger. I got the gist, but it has been a decade or three! Brilliant show.
meher BB is on fire suggesting 90 rather – the other way around
bob ellis is with us
i enjoyed and valued PB tonight – essential research
At this election, I’m aware that we are recommending preferences to Labor in 139 of the 150 HoR seats. Can anyone tell me what the number was at the last election? I would imagine not even close to that? Labor may even get a slightly tighter flow of Green prefs than last time, and I suspect will do a little better on “others” prefs.
My prediction will be, Libs with a narrow win with 78 seats
Can you call it a trend when it’s small and slow?
dwh
Is what small and slow?
Another question that might prove interesting in terms of swings.
In the real diehard conservative electorates, will there be a swing toward them to counter-balance the swing numbers to ALP elsewhere? No swings are uniform – could there be a kind of pull away from the centre (two majors diametrically opposed), that actually helps centre left because of the larger proportion of Green 2nd prefs? make sense?
BW the move in the poll back to the Coalition. If you blink you will miss it.
j341983 @ #12 Thursday, June 30, 2016 at 8:54 pm
Pretty hard to convert a scare campaign into taking responsibility for a wickedly complex negotiation in which you’re going to come off badly.
Spineless, but not brainless.
Clutch meet straw.
I believe that it was calculated at the start of the election that because of the distribution of votes in electorates, Labor would need 51.5% of the vote to win. This assumes a uniform swing.
The polls are averaging out at around 1.5% short of this.
My favourite straw lies in the 27% going to minor parties and the preferencing mayhem that is bound to follow.
Rod Hagen: I watched them all again last weekend. 🙂 Splendid!
(The 1980s series – not the 2013 “revived” rubbish.)
dwh
My comment was directed at the construction of the sentence which begged your presumably rhetorical question.
Who are these serious Labor people?
Josh Butler retweeted
Samantha Maiden
16m16 minutes ago
Samantha Maiden @samanthamaiden
Re Ipsos. Still can’t find any serious Labor party people who say more than 6-12. So 8 seats on straight primary
Bam Bam has done a quick count of the numbers.
No potato.
He was the darling of the bankers in the City.
Now they just want to feed him to the fishes.
Curious what’s on the cover of the Daily Terrorgraph tomorrow, one last push for the Libs?
http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/nsw-electricity-bills-to-increase-by-an-average-of-200-per-house-from-july-1-20160630-gpvjns.html
State issue yes, but so more Abbott’s spectre of the carbon tax driving up electricity prices.
I reckon a hung parliament a decidedly possible result – perhaps even the most probable.
Boerwar
After a revolution it is SOLP that the leaders get the chop. , see Russia ,see France.
Jenauthor
“In the real diehard conservative electorates, will there be a swing toward them to counter-balance the swing numbers to ALP elsewhere? ”
My gut feeling is that some of the Liberal seats in the “leafy suburbs” of our major cities, and also along the coastal strip from Ballina to Noosa, will show a bigger swing to the left – perhaps more to the Greens than Labor – than the outer suburban marginals and perhaps even some of the safe Labor seats. I believe that the “Greening” of the upper middle class is a continuing trend: well, it certainly is down here in Tassie, and surely this must be replicated to some extent on the mainland.
There is a growing proportion of the electorate who have significant concerns about climate change and environmental degradation, and would like to see a boost in the use of renewables. Labor has gone into the election with good policies on these things, but has been very quiet about them: perhaps because their focus groups and internal polls showed that voters in marginal seats aren’t too excited about them. So the Greens have ended up wearing the badge of being the party that cares most about these things. And they will consequently gain votes in some areas IMO, even if their national average vote stays about the same.
How accurate are user allocated preferences, how many voters actually know there how to vote card before they get to the voting center?
Looks like the shy tory effect will carry the government. I give it 2% to the ipsos – 51-49%. I still think the election will be closer to 52-48% to the LNP.
Davidwh: “the move in the poll back to the Coalition. If you blink you will miss it.”
It appears to be about 1 percentage point, which is significant in such a close race.
Tony Jones just said Labor strategists expecting 9 seats (no details given).
There is a good chance NXT will take 3 or 4 from LNP and independents another 1 or 2 from LNP, so probably 5 more on cross benches.
So LNP lose 14 of their 90, end up on 76.
We might need a bit of luck to keep them out, but if they do win with a bare majority with a more hostile senate, and a PM whos gloss has worn off, then they have their work cut out for them.
adrian @ #13 Thursday, June 30, 2016 at 8:54 pm
She went way above and beyond the call of duty to Malcolm.
Fairfax still doing a very good imitation of a headless chook. The headline/link that originally said “Coalition faces shock loss: Fairfax-Ipsos Mark Kenny” now says ” Dead heat? Election cliffhanger looms EXCLUSIVE Mark Kenny”. Text hasn’t changed – it canvassed both possibilities from the start, but someone’s decided that the wrong possibility was emphasised in the original headline.
No newspoll tonight if anybody was wondering
meher baba
There is such a thing in Tassie………….apart from you ?
lahiru weerasinghe @ #79 Thursday, June 30, 2016 at 9:50 pm
Is there a shy tory effect in Australia?
And if there is a ‘shy’ effect in that people did not want to admit supporting the more unpopular choice, surely that’s Labor.
That said, I don’t know. What is clear is that there is a huge Green/Independent/NXT/other effect – bigger than any I can remember. It is the proverbial cat among the pigeons and who gets caught by the cat is anyone’s guess.
Rod Hagen
Sportsbet have LNP 77 seats and Hung parliament both at $3.50 equal favorites. Strangely, LNP 76 seats is $5 and LNP 78 seats $4 then the odds progressively lengthen for more than 78 seats. Quite close from the point of view of where the money is talking !
Have we had many editorials/endorsements yet?
Spotted that the AFR went Coalition – am I right in thinking the SMH did, too?
Is anyone likely to go Labor?
The MOE can give it to either side. If, after ALL the ‘upsets’ over the past few years/days/months hasn’t shown that then why are any of us here?
This election is even more unpredictable than previous election. We’ll have to just wait and see.
Bug1
Coalition currently hold 88 seats. Palmer’s curent seat will go to the fibs. So make that 89 seats
Hung Parliament is all that’s needed. I think preferences are likely to deliver it.
Can someone explain the relative merits of using preference flows from the previous election vs respondent allocated prefs?
Is there any known reason why ISPOS has such a low primary vote for the major parties?
TPOF – which is why I’m extremely wary of trying to poll this election, let alone draw many conclusions outside of it being close.
Good evening all,
The last Galaxy which was on released on Sunday had primary votes at 42 for coalition and 35 for labor with a reported 50/50 2PP.
This latest Galaxy has the primary votes at 43 Coalition and 36 labor for 2PP of 51/49 to Coalition. Why would it not be 50/50 if both primary numbers have increased by the same amount ?
Am I missing something ?
Cheers.
James J
Thank you
Truly superb television. Best show on the box.
TPOF @ 9.55pm: Research done after the last UK general election supported the proposition that there wasn’t really a shy tory effect even in Britain.
Potentially rounding?
It’s all up to the croweaters to give us a hung parli with NX to make MT eat humble pie.
JAR @ 9.52
Anything less than a firm majority for the Coalition will be, in essence, a loss for it. For three years it has shown an inability to actually govern, including getting agreement in the Senate to its measures. Nothing they have done in this election campaign shows they will be any better if they take up the reins of government again. The only difference between Turnbull and Abbott has been that Turnbull has not gone out of his way to create hatred against Muslims the way Abbott did.