Galaxy: 50-50

Yet another poll recording nothing in it on two-party preferred, this time with the novelty factor of a follow-up question probing how the Coalition might have gone if Tony Abbott had been kept as leader.

The Sunday News Corp papers have a national federal poll from Galaxy, although their websites are being a little coy about the fact. The poll shows two-party preferred at 50-50, which is all I can tell you about voting intention at this stage, because I’m not seeing any primary votes, sample sizes or field work dates. (UPDATE: Primary votes here – Coalition 42%, Labor 35% and Greens 11%). The report does relate that a follow-up question found Labor would lead 53-47 if Tony Abbott was still Liberal leader; that 38% believe Labor’s claim that a Coalition government would privatise Medicare, compared with 45% who don’t; and that 30% believe Malcolm Turnbull’s claim that Labor’s negative gearing reforms would drive down house prices, compared with 40% who don’t. More to follow on that at a later time.

In other news, today’s Fairfax papers have a report canvassing party insiders’ views on the state of the horse race:

• A Nationals source is quoted saying the party is “pretty nervous” about Rob Oakeshott’s challenge to Luke Hartsuyker in Cowper, and “fearful of losing Page”, where Labor’s Janelle Saffin seeks to recover the seat she lost to Kevin Hogan in 2013. However, its polling is also said to show Barnaby Joyce leading Tony Windsor in New England.

• Labor is said to be confident about the outer Sydney seat of Macarthur, but less so about other Sydney marginals including Lindsay and Banks.

• In Central Queensland, Capricornia and Flynn are rated as “likely Labor gains”, while Nationals MP George Christensen is “precarious” in Dawson.

• In Victoria, Corangamite is said to be the only Liberal-held seat Labor is now targeting, suggesting it is not hopeful about the Melbourne seats of Dunkley, Deakin and La Trobe. The Labor-versus-Greens contest in Batman is rated as lineball, but Labor is thought unlikely to lose its vulnerable Melbourne seats of Chisholm and Bruce to the Liberals. Liberal candidate Chris Jermyn’s poor performance is thought likely to save Labor from the Country Fire Authority backlash in McEwen, but the controversy is giving the Liberals an “outside chance” in Bendigo.

Further:

• David Crowe of The Australian reports Jacqui Lambie is “performing so strongly in Tasmania that major party observers expect her to win and perhaps gain enough votes to elect her running mate, Devonport mayor Steve Martin”. The report also suggests the Nick Xenophon Team could potentially win seats in Victoria and Western Australia, and suggests Derryn Hinch, Bob Day and David Leyonhjelm are stronger prospects than Pauline Hanson and Glenn Lazarus, without writing either off (unlike Ricky Muir and John Madigan, who don’t rate a mention).

• Sarah Elks of The Australian reports on Labor efforts to shore up Terri Butler, its member for the inner southern Brisbane seat of Griffith, citing Liberal National Party insiders who say “the ALP has been panicked into throwing money at a seat it is no danger of losing”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

998 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50”

Comments Page 3 of 20
1 2 3 4 … 20

  1. And by the way ‘power grab by a union’ is just a right wing talking point lacking substance. Is there anything of substance that you actually object too?

  3. Sorry, just on that stability theme, I forgot to add the most important factor. The ability to negotiate with minor parties and crossbenchers. The LNP had to call a DD despite having a large majority, because they were so inept at it, whereas the ALP was able to pass mountains of legislation in minority government.

  6. steele blade @ #31 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 9:05 am

    Bemused @ 11:28 pm
    diogenes @ #1234 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 10:55 pm
    Whatever happened to the ACTU? They barely seem to exist anymore. I used to always know who was their boss; now I have no idea. You see Change and GetUp and the IPA all the time but the ACTU doesn’t seem to be a player.
    Your surely jest.
    Dave Oliver is Secretary and Jed Kearney is President.
    You are too close to the action Bemused. On a scale of 1 to 10, I would estimate Bob Hawke’s public recognition was a 9, Oliver’s would be a 1, and that is rounded up.

    Both Ged and Dave appear fairly regularly on news and current affairs programs.
    I might be an ALP member, but I could not be described as close to the ACTU.

  9. Unfunded tax cuts increasing the deficit without productivity investment in education and health is recipe for instability

    =============================
    Shorten speaking at launch now

  10. poroti @ #96 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 10:09 am

    CTar1 + TPOF
    Journalism would be an excellent training ground for future pollies, all that spin, propagandising and doing the bidding of your backers.
    TPOF agree re Carr. He fiddled while NSW Labor burned.

    Has not helped Leon Bignell, terrible minister.

  13. Morning all. Fran Kelly is an idiot. Three of the four SA seats where NXT is taking votes off Labor are Liberal held, and NXT are likely to topple Liberals. So in the context of three cornered contests, her comments are nonsensical.

    I also agree Labor should press on the subtext of Brexit: it was a vote against policies increasing inequality (rightly or wrongly). Turnbull promises more of what got Cameron, the Conservatives and England into their current mess. Will Turnbull practice austerity here to ensure “stability”? If not medicare, what else will he cut?

    With things so close, but Labor falling just short, I wish they would drop or at least retarget the negative attack adds. Labor’s vote has not been increasing while they have been running. The targets should be SSM, Liberal tax cuts for the wealthy and a refusal to reform negative gearing, not medicare and NXT. A whole generation has been priced out of the housing market, and it is barely mentioned. Same with the failed Abbott promise of a million jobs. Then Labor wonders why young voters turn to the Greens? I think Shorten is performing well but the Labor campaign is off target. At this stage it looks to me like a minority Liberal government. Have a good day all.

  15. With talk of Labor picking up 14 seats – not enough to gain power in its own right and not quite enough to force Turbull into hung parliament territory, what is clear, if this is an accurate state of affairs, is that the Coalition have gone backwards. Not even the government friendly journos now are talking about wonderful wins for the LNP but use phrases like “hanging on” and “getting over the line” and “sandbagging seats” as qualifiers now. From the word get-go, the LNP has been on the defensive. The reason for calling an election, let alone a DD, have not been at all understood by most of the electorate and the LNP has not even bothered to give its reasons any real support over the lasts 6/7 weeks. It is now down to the usual one sentence mantras.
    An old political saw from previous DD’s is that the party which calls such DD’s usually comes out of the election in a worse shape than it went in. I think this will be true this time. Come late on the 2nd Malcolm may will still be PM, but he will also likely to have less (considerable less) support on his own side in the Reps, the Senate despite all, is unlikely to be in control of the LNP ( I see Jackie Lambie for instance it touted for holding her seat and taking a second member of her “party” in) and the right wing of his own party will be breathing down his neck. If and when the joint sitting takes place there is no certainty that the weak reason for calling the DD will be vindicated.

    I always anticipated 21/22 seats a mountain just a bit too high to climb for Labor this time around. If Labor can get within 10 seats they are in the box seat to keep the government under pressure for three years leading into the next election when there will be no excuses left for the conservatives. There will be some really hard stuff for the LNP to face – the budget from 2014, the SSM stuff and problems with a possible recession around the corner – and there is nowhere for them to hide. One thing a return of the LNP to office at the Federal level, and with the economy going from bad to worse, is the almost certain demise of the Barnett government in WA next year.

  18. bemused @ #106 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 10:17 am

    steele blade @ #31 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 9:05 am

    Bemused @ 11:28 pm
    diogenes @ #1234 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 10:55 pm
    Whatever happened to the ACTU? They barely seem to exist anymore. I used to always know who was their boss; now I have no idea. You see Change and GetUp and the IPA all the time but the ACTU doesn’t seem to be a player.
    Your surely jest.
    Dave Oliver is Secretary and Jed Kearney is President.
    You are too close to the action Bemused. On a scale of 1 to 10, I would estimate Bob Hawke’s public recognition was a 9, Oliver’s would be a 1, and that is rounded up.

    Both Ged and Dave appear fairly regularly on news and current affairs programs.
    I might be an ALP member, but I could not be described as close to the ACTU.

    I haven’t lived in Australia for more than 12 years and have never been in a Union and I still knew Ged was the President. 😉

  19. the referendum outcome is silly – parliament must have a contributing say – the ref isnt and shouldn’t be binding or final on such an important matter – cameron looks like a twat with self pitying resignation announcment- yes a conscience vote or more dramatically bi partisan veto of a close ref on important matter where murdoch played a major role … name and shame that emotive interloper

  21. ‘This requirement applies to integrated stations in Districts 2, 7, 8, 13, 14, 15 and 27.’

    Interesting – but not surprising – that qualifying clauses like this one are being ignored in the CFA discussion.

    The VFF President has admitted that NO CFA-only stations are affected by the agreement – that’s 1,200 fire stations. Of the 34 ‘integrated’ stations, only 3 are. The rest are professional-only brigades which has no CFA members.

  22. I like this bit about Boris –

    A former Tory minister, Sir Alan Duncan, challenged the idea that Johnson was the hot favourite to succeed Cameron. “Do not necessarily assume that he is the darling of the Conservative party activists,” Duncan said.

    “A lot of them have loved the notoriety and the excitement. But … a lot of them don’t want a permanent ride on the big dipper.”

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/25/uk-faces-brexit-crisis

  23. BK..

    ..on Knight’s cartoon ..that’s the fourth Brexit cartoon using the ministry of silly walks theme.. the one showing the civil servants all walking over a cliff is my favourite..

    PS: thanks for the ‘dawn patrol’ ..I look forward to it every morning 🙂

    PPS: GO REBEKHA SHARKIE!!! 🙂 🙂

  24. [Interesting – but not surprising – that qualifying clauses like this one are being ignored in the CFA discussion.

    The VFF President has admitted that NO CFA-only stations are affected by the agreement – that’s 1,200 fire stations. Of the 34 ‘integrated’ stations, only 3 are. The rest are professional-only brigades which has no CFA members.]

    Thanks zoom, the more I see the more I think this is a mindless political beatup by fools for fools.

    One question though what drove the Minister to resign? Did she have a relationship (professional, not improper) or had she given undertakings as Minister she couldn’t honour?

  26. alias: “Plibersek is showing again she’s the best performer for the federal ALP.”

    A long way off the mark. She’s hardly in the top ten for mine. Off the top of my head, Shorten, Wong, Bowen, Clare, Albo, Burke and even Ellis, Marles and O’Connor all make a much stronger impression. Tanya’s undeniably pretty, and has a warm personality, but – to this swinging voter – she rarely succeeds in making a point that has any cut-through, or is subsequently quotable in any way.

    One instance: in the interview with Cassidy this morning, she had a golden opportunity to tear strips off the Libs for floating the utterly absurd idea of MPs for electorates that voted Yes in a SSM referendum being given the right to subsequently vote No in Parliament. This was an opportunity to talk about the RW Libs caring nothing for the will of the people, treating us all like mugs, etc, etc. Instead, she made some sort of lame comment about “ah, but will those whose electorates vote Yes be compelled to vote Yes”.

    She’s like this on everything: far too warm, pleasant and reasonable. I’m sure she makes the voters love her personally, but I doubt that she makes too many people who are thinking about voting Liberal change their minds and vote Labor instead.

    I have challenged posters on PB to come up with one political or policy issue that she has memorably taken forward and made her own. Nobody has yet responded to that challenge.

  27. AustralianLabor: Bill: The Liberals are choosing multinationals over Medicare. They’ve chosen the big banks over the battlers. #BNELaunch #savemedicare

  29. dave @ #122 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 10:29 am

    I like this bit about Boris –

    A former Tory minister, Sir Alan Duncan, challenged the idea that Johnson was the hot favourite to succeed Cameron. “Do not necessarily assume that he is the darling of the Conservative party activists,” Duncan said.
    “A lot of them have loved the notoriety and the excitement. But … a lot of them don’t want a permanent ride on the big dipper.”

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/25/uk-faces-brexit-crisis

    Theresa May looks like a good chance if Boris does not make it, and former journalist Michael Gove might be in with a chance as well.

  30. Before the Labor launch Jennet and his colleagues pulled apart Labor’s policy. Today, he is acting like a rent boy with Cormann.

  31. Tricot

    Will it be the Barnett government in WA next March? local Murdoch political hack says August is deadline for the party to decide the emperor’s fate

  32. Bill Shorten will be the ALP leader after the election, whatever happens..
    ..can’t say that about Truffles, but…

  33. Peter Jukes is tweeting that Brexit may not be happening. Something about no PM willing to invoke article 50.

    I think this is a watch this space

  35. geoffrey @ #119 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 10:26 am

    the referendum outcome is silly – parliament must have a contributing say – the ref isnt and shouldn’t be binding or final on such an important matter

    So parliament should overrule the will of the people even when an unambiguous question has been put to them in a plebiscite that received months of coverage and argument for and against both sides, had an unusually high voter turnout, and where one side was supported by a clear majority of the electorate?

    What a strange understanding of democracy you have. Have you thought about joining the Liberal party?

  36. [Peter Jukes is tweeting that Brexit may not be happening. Something about no PM willing to invoke article 50.]

    While I don’t encourage or support violence but really if Brexit doesn’t go through you would expect serious civil displeasure is justified.

  37. markjs @ #132 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 10:35 am

    Bill Shorten will be the ALP leader after the election, whatever happens..
    ..can’t say that about Truffles, but…

    C’mon – be fair. Both sides have certainty on the leadership issue – Bill will be leader no matter what the outcome, and Mal won’t be leader no matter what the outcome.

  38. WWP

    Not if a snap election is called. All those protest voters I didn’t think my vote would count get to vote for a government promising not to do Brexit or redo referendum.

    Its getting very messy politics over there.

  39. A most perceptive account of Brexit:

    Most of all, Brexit is the consequence of the economic bargain struck in the early 1980s, whereby we waved goodbye to the security and certainties of the postwar settlement, and were given instead an economic model that has just about served the most populous parts of the country, while leaving too much of the rest to anxiously decline. Look at the map of those results, and that huge island of “in” voting in London and the south-east; or those jaw-dropping vote-shares for remain in the centre of the capital: 69% in Tory Kensington and Chelsea; 75% in Camden; 78% in Hackney, contrasted with comparable shares for leave in such places as Great Yarmouth (71%), Castle Point in Essex (73%), and Redcar and Cleveland (66%). Here is a country so imbalanced it has effectively fallen over….

    What defines these furies is often clear enough: a terrible shortage of homes, an impossibly precarious job market, a too-often overlooked sense that men (and men are particularly relevant here) who would once have been certain in their identity as miners, or steelworkers, now feel demeaned and ignored. The attempts of mainstream politics to still the anger have probably only made it worse: oily tributes to “hardworking families”, or the the fingers-down-a-blackboard trope of “social mobility”, with its suggestion that the only thing Westminster can offer working-class people is a specious chance of not being working class anymore.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/commentisfree/2016/jun/24/divided-britain-brexit-money-class-inequality-westminster?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

  40. This Galaxy confirms for mine that that the Coalition has failed abysmally to make it’s case for re-election. To be 50/50 after the torrent of ads ..positive media commentary ..and having the ABC firmly on their side is remarkable.

    OK, Labor hasn’t been able to break away either, but geez they’ve done fabulously well to stay in the race and still be neck and neck with the Coalition with just five more days to go..

    Wonderful strategic campaign by Shorten and his team ..whatever happens I’ll be proud to be standing with my ALP colleagues handing out HTVs come Saturday..

  41. nicholas @ #18 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 8:34 am

    I do wonder now why UK Labour and Corbyn could not rally the working classes.

    UK Labour….has a weak relationship with the working classes these days. Decades of economic policies that have increased the precariousness of employment and increased inequality of wealth and income have done immense damage to that relationship.

    These are results, not causes. All these things followed from the liquidation of the antique Victorian economy by Thatcher. She set out to emaciate Labour and she did it by abolishing large parts of the economy and a campaign of political and legal repression. The sense of shared social, economic and political destiny that held working people and labour together was broken apart by Thatcher’s victory and has been sustained by the renunciation of the very idea of a social contract.

    We should recall that labour has nearly always been weak in the UK, such is the pervasive power of their monarchic/aristocratic social hierarchy. Labour was strong for, at most, 35 years last century. Sadly, they nearly always play off the back foot.

  42. After you have read the article posted by Nicholas you will see why I think Brexit works against the LNP and for Labor

    AustralianLabor: Bill: Labor will fight for fairness: penalty rates – safe rates – close the gender gap – strong minimum wage #BNELaunch #ausvotes

  43. [Not if a snap election is called. ]

    Yes even if a snap election is called. You just should not be able to hold a referendum and ignore the result, if you do you really have no reason to complain as the guillotine descends to end your life.

  44. Stutchbury was emasculated by that Keating letter

    Lest we forget: it was Stutchbury who published that Keating letter.

  46. Markjs

    Yes you should be proud. By standing up for its core values over the past three years Labor is very competitive and thats why the usual LNP and Media tactics are not working.

    Labor has done the hard yards in opposition. Labor has run a stellar campaign. I still think Labor will win despite the media meme being run on marginals they were saying that before we got the leaks showing more seats in play than media saying.

    So yes win or lost Labor and their supporters can and should be proud.

  47. So I am little confused with Hinch’s statement wtte that he is not voting for himself as he doesn’t believe in compulsory voting. Far enough. However:
    – he makes a mockery of the democratic process IMHO whereby he is running in the election but doesn’t vote himself and expects others not to either. He has no right surely to sit in that place as even he didn’t vote for him.
    – given he has made his view public surely the AEC can go after him in a very public way re obligations for compulsory voting
    – his views on voting are not listed in his leaflets at least not what I have seen.
    The man is a buffon and surely voters must be getting tired of celebrity candidates pushing their own agendas but have no real plan to actually represent their constituents/seat.
    (As a side note I’ve always advocated a more professional approach to local government where councillors are actually full time positions paid accordingly and actually do work like sit and run committees, etc)

  49. I stopped finding Insiders relevant ages ago. Cassidy is a tired old hack.
    There’s a simple answer for those upset with the mainstream media – ignore it, there’s better stuff in the digital arena than Murdoch and the ABC

  50. My ‘green’ friend is defending their support for a second Brexit vote and not having a second plebiscite vote on SSM due to; ‘there will be no global currency wobbles because Australia passes same-sex marriage bill’.

    lol

Comments Page 3 of 20
1 2 3 4 … 20

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *