Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

With a week to go, Newspoll finds the Coalition poking its nose in front for the first time since March, albeit by the barest possible margin.

The Australian reports Newspoll shows the Coalition opening a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of Coalition 43% (up two), Labor 36% (steady) and Greens 9% (down one). Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 37% and steady on disapproval at 51%, Bill Shorten is steady at 35% and down one to 50%, and Turnbull leads 45-30 as preferred prime minister. The poll of 1713 respondents was conducted Thursday to Sunday. Here’s the latest BludgerTrack update, including tonight’s Newspoll and yesterday’s Galaxy:

bludgertrack-2016-06-24

Here’s a closer look at how the minor party vote has tracked since the 2013 election, with the Greens shown in green, Palmer United in orange-brown, and others in grey.

2016-06-27-minor-party-vote

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,037 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

  1. raaraa @ #979 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 11:55 pm

    Genuine question.
    Why is it when a left-leaning leader tries to lead a centre-left party, he or she gets criticised a lot, but when a right-leaning leader does the same, they get a lot of praise here?

    raaraa, Corbyn is in trouble not because he’s some notional lefty but because he has abysmally failed to lead. He has been sitting it out. He has been delinquent…missing…empty…derelict…that is the point.

  2. The current meme regarding the outcome on Saturday is precisely the type of meme you would wish to create to encourage a protest vote. Be that as it may this is a fascinating election on many fronts.

  3. My four brothers are British (my mother and father split when I was very young) and three of them have just re/joined the Labour Party and back Corbyn.

    One is a university lecture in science, one is a programmer for games and one is a carpenter. All own (or are vying) their homes in London and one has another house in Norfolk.

    Their ages range from 46 to 29.

  4. I hope that after this election – win or lose- that Labor put some extra resources into how to counter the Murdoch/MSM/CPG narrative that influences so many voters.

  5. I see you can still get $1.40 on Labor in Solomon. Clearly people don’t entirely believe the newspaper there. Now why would that be I wonder? Poll only showed Griggs losing 61-39.

  6. All happening in Britain. Standard and Poors have delivered their credit downgrade.
    No confidence vote in Corbyn to be held by the parliamentary Labour party.
    Big crowd supporting him outside.
    Murdoch will go to the grave happily in the knowledge that he has destroyed the UK in payback for not getting the knighthood/peerage that he coveted.

  7. tpof @ #988 Tuesday, June 28, 2016 at 12:03 am

    raaraa @ #979 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 11:55 pm

    Genuine question.
    Why is it when a left-leaning leader tries to lead a centre-left party, he or she gets criticised a lot, but when a right-leaning leader does the same, they get a lot of praise here?

    Note my comment at 11.57. If you are correct in your proposition, an answer might be that the leader is out of step with the people they are leading.
    That said, I think there are too few examples to support your proposition. Certainly, in a large broad political party like Labor there is a challenge for any leader to be relevant to the breadth of membership both within the parliament and the broader membership. It may be that a leader who sticks doggedly to the views of one end or the other of the party is particularly challenged when trying to lead for everyone.

    Fair point, but I remembered that he was already getting a lot of flak at the beginning during the leadership contest, despite him polling very highly among the membership.. It seems he was getting a lot of criticism in the media at every step despite the popularity among the population and the increasing Labour membership enrolment among the youth.

  8. Watching BBCs’ ‘Business Live’.

    The UK Govt has been planning to sell this FY the shares they ended up with in RBS (Royal Bank of Scotland) as a wash out of the GFC. The shares have dropped 38% on the market since the ‘Brexit’ announcement.

    The article Briefly posted @ #1007 Tuesday, June 28, 2016 at 2:59 am is worth a read:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/brussels-rejects-boris-johnson-pipe-dream-over-single-market-access

    Winning a cause that ‘Boris’ only joined for self promotion purposes and expected to lose has turned into a nightmare for him. He’s rooted.

  9. tpof @ #992 Tuesday, June 28, 2016 at 12:14 am

    Guytaur @ 12.00
    Labour in the UK has devolved too much leadership selection power away from the Parliamentarians. The Rudd changes here might have gotten the balance right. Time will tell. There is a lot to be said for giving the membership some involvement in the selection of party leader and there is much more in providing a brake on leadershit speculation by making the transaction cost much higher for changing a leader mid-term.
    So far in Australia the new Labor process has given Bill Shorten the opportunity to focus on providing leadership and developing and maintain a long-term strategy without constantly having to deal with real and confected undermining. The value of this process is unarguable. Whether it would be a millstone in other situations is another matter. One other difference is the very short term of office – three years – of an Australian parliament and the fact that the PM can call an election at any time to take advantage of Opposition disarray. This is no longer possible in the UK, where the five year terms are now more or less fixed, and so the long process of replacing a dud leader can be carried out with less political risk.

    IMO fixed terms are used in some states here without any problems, and making it harder to replace dud leaders discourages certain personality types from just letting a leader do the hard yards only to have them replaced by someone more popular. Perhaps as an example of fixed leadership, the most well known (and some say controversial) is the US presidency.

  10. It’s not only the corruption possibilities that makes the US Military a risk.

    People from Quarantine tell me that the Americans have a regular ‘courier’ flight to Curtain, Darwin and Sherger. What cargo these flights move, other than people, is basically unknown as well as the quarantine status.

    US Air Force members and Border Force officials allegedly involved in smuggling syndicates

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-28/us-air-force-border-force-members-allegedly-in-syndicates/7548126

  11. CTar1
    Cactus alright, very surprised when he got involved. Wonderful self promotion opportunities if course, something he is addicted to but dossing down with the ‘Farage’s’ is a sure way to catch some dreadful ‘disease’ , in this case a likely fatal one.

  12. darn @ #890 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 10:34 pm

    Verdict for the day: Liberals.
    Cumulative tally: Labor 57 Coalition 60

    I know it’s all just a bit of fun, but I’ve stopped reading Bluey since he decided to rewrite history on the number of days the Liberals have won. From memory it should be about 40, not 60.
    It’s one thing to declare the Liberals the winner because of some fluke outcome on the other side of the world. But it’s quite another to deny Shorten and the Labor party the recognition that they deserve for the terrific fight they have put up over the last eight weeks.

    +1

    I might knit Bluey a blue tie to match his blue rings. ; )

  13. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. And would you believe that ICELAND! has just beaten England in the soccer semi-final?

    Jobs and Growth? The number of apprentices employed throughout Australia has plummeted under the Coalition – and nowhere worse than in Western Sydney.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-apprentice-numbers-slump-in-key-marginal-seats-government-figures-reveal-20160627-gpsyp3.html
    The CBA whistleblower sorted Cormann out on Q and A last night. BTW I thought the program last night was a shocker. Plibersek and Alan Jones were OK, Cormann was Cormann (enough said!) Richardson was insipid and Langton was all over the place. Tony Jones gave rambling from Cormann and Langton far too much time.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/qa-liberal-mathias-cormann-faces-grilling-for-avoiding-royal-commission-into-banks-20160627-gpt6pl.html
    This SMH editorial gives Shorten credit for taking a bold, long term view on the economy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/credit-to-bill-shorten-for-big-bold-policy-platform-20160626-gpshw4.html
    Paul Bongiorno says Turnbull has hit his stride but big problems loom for him.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2016/06/27/election-campaign-final-week/
    Peter Hartcher looks at the risks for Australia flowing from the Brexit vote.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/qa-liberal-mathias-cormann-faces-grilling-for-avoiding-royal-commission-into-banks-20160627-gpt6pl.html
    Peta Credlin has predicted that chaos will reign with the SSM issue. I must say that in general I have appreciated her inputs since she joined Sky News.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-peta-credlin-predicts-coalition-chaos-on-gay-marriage-vote-20160627-gpt4wm.html
    John Oliver warns the US that there are no f****g do-overs so don’t be tempted to elect Trump. *Language warning*
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/06/27/john-oliver-brexit-vote-is-a-warning-for-u-s-trump-support/
    Professor Paula Gerber says that it is a plebiscite made in hell.
    http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/australian-prime-minister-malcolm-turnbull-wrong-on-marriage-plebiscite-20160627-gpsoe6
    The Sex Party launches a new ad targeting the Catholic church.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2016/06/27/sex-party-ad/
    Urban Wronski wonders if Turnbull will lose his own seat.
    https://urbanwronski.com/2016/06/27/will-malcolm-turnbull-lose-his-own-seat/

  14. Section 2 . . .

    Van Badham on Labor’s fight for fairness.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/27/labor-has-a-detailed-strategy-to-fight-for-fairness-this-matters
    Laura Tingle writes that the budget debate will be much more important after the election. Google.
    /news/politics/election/election-2016-budget-debate-will-be-more-important-after-the-election-20160627-gpswo1
    Shocking suicide rates in the Kimberleys – seven times higher than nationally.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/06/27/kimberley-suicide-rate-among-the-highest-in-the-world/
    Will the EU play hardball and give Britain the Greece treatment?
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/brexit-hardball-the-european-union-will-treat-britain-like-greece-20160627-gpsm67.html
    The SCOTUS overturns the horrible abortion laws in Texas and upsets the more rabid Republicans.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/abortion-rights-advocates-celebrate-after-us-supreme-court-strikes-down-restrictive-texas-law-20160627-gpt7io.html
    This university report finds that the Coalition’s company tax cuts would benefit big business by $5.5b per year. It pooh poohs trickle down economics.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/company-tax-cut-benefit-to-nations-biggest-companies-would-be-55b-a-year-report-20160627-gpsvb6.html
    Stephen Koukoulas says that Australia must be ready to pump cash into the economy if Brexit bites. He hopes that we could face such a crisis with the same alacrity as we did in the GFC rather than sticking with a crazed obsession with the budget balance.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/27/australia-must-consider-fiscal-stimulus-if-brexit-crisis-hurts-the-gobal-economy
    Goldman Sachs has predicted a mild recession for the UK next year.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/goldman-sachs-economists-tip-mild-uk-recession-20160627-gpskvj.html
    Be afraid, very afraid about the Coalition’s Medicare policy says Ash Ghebranious.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-coalitions-medicare-policy-be-afraid–be-very-afraid,9166
    David Wroe suggests that Xenophon represents our populist mini-backlash.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/brexit-trump-xenophon-australias-populist-backlash-nowhere-near-britain-and-us-experts-say-20160627-gpt00o.html
    Michael Pascoe fears Trump more than Brexit.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/donald-trump-a-bigger-worry-than-brexit-but-before-that-bogeyman-rises–20160626-gpsf0t.html

  15. Section 3 . . .

    Why so many of us are voting early this election.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-so-many-of-us-are-voting-early-this-year-20160627-gpsovo.html
    “View from the Street” looks at the good luck and bad luck moments of the election campaigns.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-election-2016-what-good-luck-what-bad-luck-20160627-gpswpe.html
    Kristina Keneally warns us to stand by for the avalanche of attack ads.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/27/strap-yourselves-in-folks-the-attack-ads-are-coming
    Britain is still a world leader – in outstanding political leadership incompetence that is.
    https://theconversation.com/brexit-act-in-haste-61673
    Take the “Dutton or Dictator” quiz.
    https://newmatilda.com/2016/06/27/dutton-or-dictator-quiz-fighting-bigotry-with-ridicule/
    How is this for an animal act! Send the bastard down!
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/fake-gynaecologist-raffaele-di-paolo-gave-potentially-fatal-injections-vaginal-examinations-court-hears-20160627-gpsx27.html
    Why are we not using the useful unit pricing tool in supermarkets?
    https://theconversation.com/unit-pricing-saves-money-but-is-the-forgotten-shopping-tool-61379

  16. What I find interesting re. all the Labour politicians deserting their leader after Brexit is that many of them wanted the UK to stay but their electorates obviously voted to leave, and often by significant margins. They were supposed to represent their constituents – but obviously they were representing someone else.
    They should step down entirely and allow their electorates to select people who will be true representatives.

  17. FUNNYBALL
    Tuesday, June 28, 2016 at 10:53 am
    In Tas, if the ReachTels showing 50/50 in Braddon & Bass are right, the most reasonable expectation is one apiece. Since Labor looks likely in Lyons, I expect net change of Coal -2, ALP +2 in Tas. I also expect Labor to win Solomon in NT
    guytaur
    Tuesday, June 28, 2016 at 10:54 am
    Braddon is more likely to go Labor. Look at its history its been Labor voting more than Liberal voting.
    ——-
    Gaytaur you might want to have another look at the history which shows Bass and Braddon vote together and vote more often for the Libs.

    Taking a historical perspective, Bass and Braddon are twin sisters who live next door to each other and have followed the same joint voting patterns since 1974 across 17 elections. You don’t lose or gain one without the other.

    BRADDON @ BASS LABOR 1972, 1974, 1993, 1998, 2001, 2007, 2010 [7]
    LIBERAL 1975, 1977, 1980, 1983, 1984, 1987, 1990, 1996, 2004, 2013 [10]

    Bass and Braddon’s close cousin, Lyons, followed the same voting patterns as her cousins except in 1996 and 2004, when Lyons voters broke the pattern and voted for Labor instead.
    LYONS LABOR 1972, 1974, 1993, 1996, 1998, 2001, 2004, 2007, 2010 [9]
    LIBERAL S 1975, 1977, 1980, 1983, 1984, 1987, 1990, 2013 [8]

    Here on the ground, my friends up north say Lyons is definitely in the Labor column.

    Bass is looking very good for Labor thanks to a range of things including the Launceston Hospital debacle, an unpopular incumbent [Nikolic] and Getup coming down to campaign against him and the State Government’s pathetic response to the loss of 100s of jobs up in the north and northwest. And where Bass goes, Braddon follows.

    Down here in Denison 90% are walking straight past all the HTV card carriers into pre-polling so expect no change here and Franklin remains a Labor no –brainer.

    I will be very surprised if the ‘bald tyres on a dirt track’ swings patterns up north don’t ALL go Labor’s way this time.

  18. DOOMSDAY – WHO GETS TO RUN A MINORITY GOVT ?
    PART ONE
    Summary- If Labor finishes with less than 72 seats [+18], they cannot form a minority Government unless the Coalition drops to 71 seats [-21].

    If the Coalition finishes with 75 seats [-17], Katter will support a Coalition ‘minority Government’.

    74-70 -6 Labor can not form a minority Government
    If the Coalition finishes with 74 seats [-18], they will need Katter and ONE ‘other’ to form a Coalition ‘minority Government’. Bandt and Wilkie would not, but McGowan, Oakeshott, Windsor or Xenephon could.

    74-71-5 ` Labor can not form a minority Government
    If the Coalition finishes with 74 seats, they will need Katter and ONE ‘other’ to form a Coalition ‘minority Government’. Bandt and Wilkie would not, but McGowan, Oakeshott, Windsor or Xenephon could.

    74-72-4. Labor can not form a minority Government
    If the Coalition finishes with 74 seats, they will need Katter and ONE ‘other’ to form a Coalition ‘minority Government’. Bandt and Wilkie would not, but McGowan could.

    73-72-5 Either the Coalition or Labor could form a minority Government
    If the Coalition finishes with 73 seats [-19], they will need Katter and TWO ‘others’ to form a Coalition ‘minority Government’. McGowan, Oakeshott, Windsor or Xenephon could. However, IF Labor has 72 seats [+18], they could also form a ‘minority Government’ with the support of Bandt, Wilkie, McGowan and Xenephon.

    73-73-4 The Coalition can not form a minority Government
    If the Coalition finishes with 73 seats [-19], they will need Katter and TWO ‘others’ to form a Coalition ‘minority Government’. Bandt and Wilkie would not . However, IF Labor also has 73 seats[+19], they could form a ‘minority Government’ with the support of Bandt, Wilkie and McGowan.

  19. PART TWO

    72-72-6 Either the Coalition or Labor could form a minority Government
    If the Coalition finishes with 72 seats [-20], they will need Katter and THREE ‘others’ to form a Coalition ‘minority Government’. Bandt and Wilkie would not, but McGowan, Oakeshott, Windsor and Xenephon could. This would need ‘others’ to be at least 6 and 4 of them able to work with a Coalition. However, IF Labor also has 72 seats[+18], they could form a ‘minority Government’ with the support of FOUR others -Bandt, Wilkie, McGowan and Xenepon, for example.

    72-73-5 The Coalition can not form a minority Government
    If the Coalition finishes with 72 seats, they will need Katter and THREE ‘Others’ to form a Coalition ‘minority Government’. Bandt and Wilkie would not. IF Labor has 73 seats[+19], they could form a ‘minority Government’ with the support of Bandt, Wilkie and McGowan or Xenephon.

    72-74-4 The Coalition can not form a minority Government
    If the Coalition finishes with 72 seats, they will need Katter and THREE ‘Others’ to form a Coalition ‘minority Government’. Bandt and Wilkie would not. IF Labor has 74 seats[+20], they could form a ‘minority Government’ with the support of Bandt and Wilkie.

  20. DOOMSDAY – WHO GETS TO RUN A MINORITY GOVERNMENT ?

    1 IN THE FOLLOWING SEAT OUTCOMES ONLY LABOR CAN FORM A MINORITY GOVT
    – Coalition 73-73-4
    – Coalition 72-73-5
    – Coalition 72-74-4

    2 IN THE FOLLOWING SEAT OUTCOMES EITHER PARTY CAN FORM A MINORITY GOVT
    – Coalition 73-72-5
    – Coalition 72-72-6

    3 IN THE FOLLOWING SEAT OUTCOMES LABOR CAN NOT FORM A MINORITY GOVERNMENT BUT THE COALITION CAN FORM A MINORITY GOVERNMENT
    – If Labor finishes with less than 72 seats [+18], they cannot form a minority Government unless the Coalition drops to 71 seats [-21].
    – If the Coalition holds 75 seats
    – Coalition 74-70-6
    – Coalition 74-71-5
    – Coalition 74-72-4


    In summary, Labor must win at least 72 seats and the Coalition less than 75 to trigger minority Government scenario’s – Personally I wouldn’t go near a minority Government deal a Labor leader. I would let the Coalition try and watch them crucify themselves in both Houses and wait for the next DD.

  21. EYES DOWN – ITS BINGO TIME
    Due to a range of circumstantial shifts in the political landscape, the election gods have turned this election into a game of bingo. Nobody knows really what will happen this time with any real sense of confidence.

    You don’t get to choose which cards you are given, players who were at your table last time are gone {Pup}, replaced by old wannabe’s {One Nation} and a new upstart who thinks we oldies need new glasses [Xenephon], made in South Australia, of course.

    The light blue man {Turnbull} replaced the dark blue man {Abbott} then stole his jumper when he left it in the change rooms, mumbling something on is way out about how he stopped ‘the frikkin boats’.

    The Green T shirt tool sits opposite you now, smiling stupidly at his bingo card as if some cosmic energy is telling him he has the winning card and noting his card is NOT biodegradable. Should he complain, now ?

    And then there’s you, your red tie not neat and tight anymore, you can’t remember when you last actually tasted food you were eating, and what do they do after 8 weeks of hard slog and sweaty palmed hands, you have to sit down here with this lot and play bingo!!

    Fark, fark, fark you say to yourself as you stare blindly at the card in front of you and hope you can read the bloody thing without your reading glasses because some knob sat of them when you left them on your seat to greet another punter and answer another stupid question. Shoosh now, the fat lady at the microphone is about the call the first number. Where’s that bloody beer I ordered an hour ago ?

  22. tsthevibe
    Thursday, June 30, 2016 at 4:25 pm
    [@AntonyGreenABC says Xenophon looks like he’ll win 4 Senate and at least 2 Reps seats (Mayo, Barker or Port Adelaide)]
    Up until now I’ve been rather looking forward to all the potential chaos that the Xenophon effect might bring about, but if it deprives the next ALP caucus of both Anne McEwen and Mark Butler, I’m afraid Don Farrell and his cronies will be left with far more influence than I’d be comfortable with.

    —–
    In Port Adelaide, Labor took a 3.9 percent PV swing but finished with a PV of 50.8 and a 2PP result of 64.0 despite a 2PP swing of 6.8 percent. Ok, so who ran second and can Xenephon get over the top of them ? Well yes. The Liberal turkey got 26.3 of the PV in 2013. Xenephon can take 2nd PV spot, no doubt.

    But then he would have to get past the Labor PV in a place where Xenephon takes more of the Liberal PV than it does the Labor PV [witness last Legislative Council results in SA ] , then the Green preferences [8.6] which State Govt elections have shown to be less damaged by Xenephon than the Conservatives, and then hope ex PUP 5.7] voters break 53-47 pro Xenephon PV and preferences to back up the 60- 40 anti-Labor preferences of Family First [7.5].

    Na, I think Bill has won back the Labor heartland in depressed electorates like Port Adelaide and Xenephon will have to look elsewhere. Mark Butler will take a hit but survive.

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