Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

With a week to go, Newspoll finds the Coalition poking its nose in front for the first time since March, albeit by the barest possible margin.

The Australian reports Newspoll shows the Coalition opening a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of Coalition 43% (up two), Labor 36% (steady) and Greens 9% (down one). Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 37% and steady on disapproval at 51%, Bill Shorten is steady at 35% and down one to 50%, and Turnbull leads 45-30 as preferred prime minister. The poll of 1713 respondents was conducted Thursday to Sunday. Here’s the latest BludgerTrack update, including tonight’s Newspoll and yesterday’s Galaxy:

bludgertrack-2016-06-24

Here’s a closer look at how the minor party vote has tracked since the 2013 election, with the Greens shown in green, Palmer United in orange-brown, and others in grey.

2016-06-27-minor-party-vote

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,037 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  2. daretotread @ #943 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 11:23 pm

    Briefly and Colton
    English Labor seats or very many of them are in areas with hugh Muslim populations. I think that you should expect that many politicians from those areas will be supportinve of Muslim radical groups, just as JFK seeking support in Boston was supportive of the IRA. Given that UKIP has taken the poor white workers, SNP the Scottish labor voters, Muslims is pretty much all that English labor has left.

    So what is it, dtt?
    Labour=radical Muslim?
    Labour=terrorist fellow traveller?
    Labour=rich yuppie?
    Labour=non white rich workers?

    Have you any other hallucinations at your fingertips?

  3. [The undermining of Corbyn has passed the point of no return. The Murdoch press and their Blairite allies have made sure of that.

    Corbyn will have to go or the membership has to elect an entire new Cabinet unless Labour has a caucus like Labor does.
    ]
    meh, I’m not sure about Corbyn, but I can smell an entitled sore loser who should be taken out back and shot from 10 miles …

  4. gorkay king @ #948 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 11:28 pm

    If half your cabinet is resigning I don’t think you can just blame Murdoch for that.

    Half, it is more like 2/3 and his deputy Tom Watson clearly does not support him either even thought he has not yet resigned. And on top of the 20 shadow cabinet members there has been about the same number of other front benchers. Corbyn is trying to cobble together a new front bench made up of a lot of members elected last year but a copy of his working list has also been leaked.
    Corbyn shows no sign of resigning and plans to run in any ballot for the leadership.

  6. GK

    I didn’t. I blamed Murdoch and his Blairite allies. The ones in the party. One notable John McTernan was there for Australia Labor troubles too. He should be able to give them advice on what disunity = death is like.

  8. Guytaur

    Labour in the UK is about to self destruct. The members chose Corbyn for a reason, the same reason Sanders is popular, Ttrump is popular and there is brexit. The same reason that the ALP goes along with human rights abuses on Manus and Nauru and orange life boats. It is recognising the deep fear and insecurity in the general pulbic. This has reached critical levels in Europe especially in the UK (Netherland too I hear).

    People want jobs, services, security and a fair share of prosperity. Selection of Corbyn and support for Sanders are essential safety valves. Prevent them from fulfilling this role and you risk a much more serious blow out at some other point.

    The UK Labour party has alrady lost Scotland. I doubt it will return although some socialist type of party will emerge to challenge the SNP. They are going to HAVE to keep Wales and the North. If they do not they will become a trivial minor party. Removing Corbyn will hasten this process.

  9. The reason I blame Murdoch and Blairite allies is Corbyn enjoys the support of the membership but not the party MP’s who were Blairite era supporters. They have attacked Corbyn from day one.

    Recognising why Corbyn has to go is the first step in stopping the next leader coup unless you want Labour to repeat the Labor experience just in opposition keeping the Tories in power when they are divided.

  11. guytaur @ #956 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 11:34 pm

    I blamed Murdoch and his Blairite allies.

    Corbyn is an abject failure. The UK faces an incredible situation, in no small part because of his feeble advocacy. Labour faces an almost-existential challenge in the face of which he is proving to be utterly useless. He has allowed a neo-Fascist to drive a very wedge into Labour’s support. Far from fighting this, he has accommodated it. He should be expelled rather than defended.

  12. Briefly
    So what is it, dtt?
    Labour=radical Muslim?
    Labour=terrorist fellow traveller?
    Labour=rich yuppie?
    Labour=non white rich workers?

    Yes obviously Briefly – all of the above if it is a mainstream alternative party but add:
    Jewish people with a residual social concience (the Milebands)
    Wannabe aristocrats who are do- (the Benns)
    Union hacks
    Real unionists who have calloused hands
    A smattering of professionals

    All of these go towards making a cohisive appealing party.

  13. DTT

    Labour in the UK will only self destruct if the MP’s keep ignoring what the membership wants.

    So far they have been I agree. However I don’t think Labour MP’s want the Tories to be in government for the next 20 years which is what they will get or another party taking over opposition role as SNP is doing at the moment.

    We know what the MP’s are doing we don’t know what the membership is doing. Things have got so bad though that the members will have to select someone like Watson who does not cower to the Murdoch narrative and who the MP’s respect.

  14. briefly

    Wrong. Labour voting has held up in by elections since Corbyn has been leader. Corbyn is being blamed for Cameron failure to prosecute Remain case. It was never Corbyn’s role to lead that. It was Cameron he was PM

  15. Briefly

    I think Labour lost Scotland well before Corbyn arrived. I rather suspect that had Corbyn activley campained to stay any chace British Labor had of recapturing the UKIP workiong class voters would have disappeared.

  16. It is far, far too late in the piece to be whinging about Blair. He’s been a long time gone. UK Labour needs to act to represent and lead the working people to whom it’s committed; it needs to oppose the Tories; and it must put forward a Remain program and fight for it in an election. If it fails to do these things, it too will be a goner. Why should working people support Labour if it fails them in this?

  17. Briefly

    There area a group of current MP’s in the Labour Party known as Blairites because they follow the Blair way of doing Labour government.

  19. Guytaur

    I feel for Corbyn since it is fairly we;ll known that he is (or used to be) pro leaving. Very hard to prosecute a case when you do not believe it. The thing is i strongly supect that Corbyn being equivocal on Brexit pretty well captures the REAL mood of the English Labor Party.

  21. guytaur @ #964 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 11:43 pm

    briefly
    Wrong. Labour voting has held up in by elections since Corbyn has been leader. Corbyn is being blamed for Cameron failure to prosecute Remain case. It was never Corbyn’s role to lead that. It was Cameron he was PM

    It’s way, way, way too late for all that. Corbyn has failed. He had his chance and he failed. There is no room for proven failure in the position he holds. He just has to go.

  22. Briefly

    Sadly British labor is going to have to address the elephant ion the room ie immigration. if it does not thenm they will lose support to Farrage and the fascists.

  23. DTT

    Labour in the UK is about to self destruct. The members chose Corbyn for a reason, the same reason Sanders is popular,

    Without going to the merits of either Corbyn or Sanders, it is critical to note the difference in the positions that these two vie for. In the Westminster system the PM is leader of the parliamentary party and the team they lead is composed of the elected members of that party. In the US Presidential system the President sits above and beyond the legislature, even if he or she belongs to the same party, and leads the nation from the White House.

    Sanders can therefore reach beyond the party machine to the voters; Corbyn (and Labor and Liberal leaders in Australia) are far more constrained and too much selection power of the leader in the hands of the party membership conflicts with the essence of how the Westminster system necessarily operates.

  24. DTT

    Corbyn has failed as leader because he has lost control of his cabinet.

    Just like Rudd and Gillard did.

    Whoever Labour chooses next has to unite the party. I think Watson should have been leader and if Labour had the voting system Australian Labor has I think thats who would have been leader.

    Watson is the bridge between the two major divisions of members and MP’s.
    I think he would also make an excellent PM.

  25. steve777 @ #922 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 11:07 pm

    Someone who is 65 today was born 5 years after WW2 ended. It’s the parents of today’s sexagenerians who stormed the beaches.

    My dad is in his 80s and he was born some 5 years before the war. People his age would have been far too young to enlist. I’m not sure if he is even keeping up with the news and Brexit as his awareness of his surroundings has gone down with his health. I guess if there are anyone in his 90s who fought in the war would not significantly make up a big portion of the voting population.

  26. daretotread @ #969 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 11:47 pm

    Guytaur
    I feel for Corbyn ….

    How perverse. Corbyn has stood by while several million jobs are placed at risk…and you feel sorry for him. He’s every bit as useless and should be held to the same standard as Cameron. He at least has said he will resign. How thoroughly perverse.

  28. Briefly

    He failed to unite the party for whatever reason thats why he has to go. I will not get into a Rudd Gillard style argument as to who is to blame.

  29. Genuine question.

    Why is it when a left-leaning leader tries to lead a centre-left party, he or she gets criticised a lot, but when a right-leaning leader does the same, they get a lot of praise here?

  30. sceptic @ #798 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 9:24 pm

    If only the NBN rollout had started with these areas.
    This was never going to happen with the Windsor / Oakshot deal.
    That was Labor’s big mistake spreading the NBN too thin too fast.
    TPG have shown how it should have been done.

    TPG are ‘cherry picking’.
    NBN is building national coverage.
    TPG are not doing anything particularly smart and shouldn’t be allowed to cherry pick.

  32. daretotread @ #972 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 11:49 pm

    Briefly
    Sadly British labor is going to have to address the elephant ion the room ie immigration. if it does not thenm they will lose support to Farrage and the fascists.

    This is rubbish. What I can’t work out is whether it’s G rubbish? Or UKIP rubbish? Or Tory chauvinist, petit racist rubbish? Or anti-worker rubbish? Or just plain old-fashioned Trot rubbish? Or Thatcherite rubbish? Or completely original rubbish?

  33. I don’t know that much about Corbyn. What I do know is that if you have that many people in your senior team resign, you are no longer in a position to be leader. That applies whatever the political leanings or personal qualities of the leader. The leader’s job is to unite his or her team. Shorten has demonstrated how to do this. Rudd failed. In the end Gillard failed. Abbott failed. Turnbull failed once before and even now is barely maintaining the facade of leadership in the face of immediate threat.

    In the same terms Corbyn has failed. Leadership of a political party is not the personal property of the person who holds that position; it is the gift of those he or she seeks to lead.

  34. DTT – strange you found the link ‘unconvincing’ as it was an official statistical analysis of the voting demographic – still, you know best.

    Do you also discount William pointing out your mistake and terming it an “ecological fallacy”? – Yep I guess you do.

    I do apologise if you felt I abused you but I do note that you will continue to argue your case long past the point of reason.

  35. tpof @ #983 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 11:57 pm

    I don’t know that much about Corbyn. What I do know is that if you have that many people in your senior team resign, you are no longer in a position to be leader. That applies whatever the political leanings or personal qualities of the leader. The leader’s job is to unite his or her team. Shorten has demonstrated how to do this. Rudd failed. In the end Gillard failed. Abbott failed. Turnbull failed once before and even now is barely maintaining the facade of leadership in the face of immediate threat.
    In the same terms Corbyn has failed. Leadership of a political party is not the personal property of the person who holds that position; it is the gift of those he or she seeks to lead.

    Excellent point.

  36. TPOF

    Yes but the division in UK Labour is between members and MP’s. Corbyn was members choice not MP’s choice.

    This shows why I was wrong to think having Caucus as part of the vote in Labor was bad. Having members and Caucus has united Labor. UK Labour should go to a voting system like it for unity.

  37. Choice of a suitable career path is essential to the good life.
    First – rich parents.
    Next quality private school.
    Sandstone university.
    If only the excellent Roger Rogerson had held out for a quality job in immigration there would have been no requirement to associate with the criminal class. His contacts would have been of the better type. In my vision I see him in his mansion on the hill modestly talking to radio shock jocks about his rise to fame.

    On another note in the event of the LNP winning the coming election, apart from more misery for the peasants, will bald men be required to obtain stick on forelocks to tug in the present of the elite?

  38. raaraa @ #979 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 11:55 pm

    Genuine question.
    Why is it when a left-leaning leader tries to lead a centre-left party, he or she gets criticised a lot, but when a right-leaning leader does the same, they get a lot of praise here?

    Note my comment at 11.57. If you are correct in your proposition, an answer might be that the leader is out of step with the people they are leading.

    That said, I think there are too few examples to support your proposition. Certainly, in a large broad political party like Labor there is a challenge for any leader to be relevant to the breadth of membership both within the parliament and the broader membership. It may be that a leader who sticks doggedly to the views of one end or the other of the party is particularly challenged when trying to lead for everyone.

  41. With that good news I am off to bed.

    Keep up the hard work campaigners with soft poll figures this election is not over by any means with a too close to call.

    Good night.

  42. Guytaur @ 12.00

    Labour in the UK has devolved too much leadership selection power away from the Parliamentarians. The Rudd changes here might have gotten the balance right. Time will tell. There is a lot to be said for giving the membership some involvement in the selection of party leader and there is much more in providing a brake on leadershit speculation by making the transaction cost much higher for changing a leader mid-term.

    So far in Australia the new Labor process has given Bill Shorten the opportunity to focus on providing leadership and developing and maintain a long-term strategy without constantly having to deal with real and confected undermining. The value of this process is unarguable. Whether it would be a millstone in other situations is another matter. One other difference is the very short term of office – three years – of an Australian parliament and the fact that the PM can call an election at any time to take advantage of Opposition disarray. This is no longer possible in the UK, where the five year terms are now more or less fixed, and so the long process of replacing a dud leader can be carried out with less political risk.

  45. Corbyn never had the support of his colleagues in Parliament but they gave him a go because the system gave them no choice by to stand by him. However they have no decided he has had his chance and must go. In the last couple of minutes another two shadow ministers resignations have been made public, it must be over 40 front bench resignations now.
    There is also going to be a secret ballot on the confidence of the Labour members of Parliament that Corbyn will certainly lose. The thing is he could be the only one for votes for himself and it would not matter, he would still be leader.

  47. New Labour MP sworn into Parliament
    Dr Rosena Allin-Khan has just been sworn in as MP for Tooting.
    David Cameron jokes: “Let me welcome the new member for Tooting to the House.
    ” I’d advise her to keep her mobile phone on because she might be in the Shadow Cabinet by the end of the day…and I thought I was having a bad day!”
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/27/eu-referendum-labour-crisis-jeremy-corbyn-vows-to-fight-on-after/

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