Galaxy: 50-50

Yet another poll recording nothing in it on two-party preferred, this time with the novelty factor of a follow-up question probing how the Coalition might have gone if Tony Abbott had been kept as leader.

The Sunday News Corp papers have a national federal poll from Galaxy, although their websites are being a little coy about the fact. The poll shows two-party preferred at 50-50, which is all I can tell you about voting intention at this stage, because I’m not seeing any primary votes, sample sizes or field work dates. (UPDATE: Primary votes here – Coalition 42%, Labor 35% and Greens 11%). The report does relate that a follow-up question found Labor would lead 53-47 if Tony Abbott was still Liberal leader; that 38% believe Labor’s claim that a Coalition government would privatise Medicare, compared with 45% who don’t; and that 30% believe Malcolm Turnbull’s claim that Labor’s negative gearing reforms would drive down house prices, compared with 40% who don’t. More to follow on that at a later time.

In other news, today’s Fairfax papers have a report canvassing party insiders’ views on the state of the horse race:

• A Nationals source is quoted saying the party is “pretty nervous” about Rob Oakeshott’s challenge to Luke Hartsuyker in Cowper, and “fearful of losing Page”, where Labor’s Janelle Saffin seeks to recover the seat she lost to Kevin Hogan in 2013. However, its polling is also said to show Barnaby Joyce leading Tony Windsor in New England.

• Labor is said to be confident about the outer Sydney seat of Macarthur, but less so about other Sydney marginals including Lindsay and Banks.

• In Central Queensland, Capricornia and Flynn are rated as “likely Labor gains”, while Nationals MP George Christensen is “precarious” in Dawson.

• In Victoria, Corangamite is said to be the only Liberal-held seat Labor is now targeting, suggesting it is not hopeful about the Melbourne seats of Dunkley, Deakin and La Trobe. The Labor-versus-Greens contest in Batman is rated as lineball, but Labor is thought unlikely to lose its vulnerable Melbourne seats of Chisholm and Bruce to the Liberals. Liberal candidate Chris Jermyn’s poor performance is thought likely to save Labor from the Country Fire Authority backlash in McEwen, but the controversy is giving the Liberals an “outside chance” in Bendigo.

Further:

David Crowe of The Australian reports Jacqui Lambie is “performing so strongly in Tasmania that major party observers expect her to win and perhaps gain enough votes to elect her running mate, Devonport mayor Steve Martin”. The report also suggests the Nick Xenophon Team could potentially win seats in Victoria and Western Australia, and suggests Derryn Hinch, Bob Day and David Leyonhjelm are stronger prospects than Pauline Hanson and Glenn Lazarus, without writing either off (unlike Ricky Muir and John Madigan, who don’t rate a mention).

Sarah Elks of The Australian reports on Labor efforts to shore up Terri Butler, its member for the inner southern Brisbane seat of Griffith, citing Liberal National Party insiders who say “the ALP has been panicked into throwing money at a seat it is no danger of losing”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

998 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50”

  1. jimmydoyle @ #910 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 9:38 pm

    Briefly
    This would be to do the English a very large favour.

    Forgive the extended metaphor, but it certainly seems like the English are emerging hung over and regretful after their Brexit binge, and are now regretting the long litany of mistakes that led to this massive headache.

    It sure looks like it -:)

  2. Newspoll 51-49 to Coalition

    Primaries: Coalition 43, Labor 36, Greens 9
    Turnbull: Satisfied 37, Dissatisfied 51
    Shorten: Satisfied 35, Dissatisfied 50

    Better PM: Turnbull 45, Shorten 30

    1713 sample, June 23-26

  3. K17

    Earlier in the election campaingn I mostly held my peace re the election, because of the enthusiasm of others. We are near the end now and what I post cannot have much impact on the emotions or commitment of posters here.

    Bemused
    Guess you were trying to Mr Clever Pants, but my comments relate only to people in the electorate. There is no friendly response to leaflets or beeps at street corners or even a smile.

    Confessions
    I had not the vaguest idea what William was implying. If you know please explain.

  4. Looks like Richard Di Natale is not cutting through hehe 🙂

    Seriously though it looks like Coalition will get back in, after wasting 3 years they will have 3 more years to waste. Here comes the plebiscite with the homophobic leaflets in my mail box *sighs*

  5. Seth

    I known am a pedant but you make the mistake I have seen a lot in the MSM in the last weeks and I can’t correct them.

    TCT will not have a 78-80 seat majority … Well I sure has hell hope not.

    They may well win 78-80 seats. It’s a different thing

    Nitpicking maybe but this is a forum about voting and politics

  6. Jesus. What a giant of an imagination!

    Annabel Crabbe discovers a week-old video of Shorten being interviewed by his wife.

    It’s only three minutes long, but combines guitar twang, a hostage vibe and near-uncontrollable sexual tension to a degree I have never before noticed in a political ad.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-strangest-interview-of-the-campaign-bill-shortens-grilling-from-his-wife-20160624-gpr0tp.html#ixzz4Cgj6WELM

    This woman is seriously weird. For someone who thinks going over to the Treasurer’s house for Sri Lankan curry lunch is normal, for Crabbe to start lampooning an interview between Shorten and his lady as replete with “uncontrollable sexual tension” is outright bizarre.

    I suppose when you’re Living National Treasure, Annabel Crabbe, you get to decide what’s “in” and what’s “out” of line. Her commentary is proof enough that if you don’t follow the MSM’s rules, you don’t rate.

    How very stick-in-the-mud of her.

  7. Ghostwhovotes has just posted. Obviously out of the loop as Jen has suggested.
    Mountain got a bit higher but need to get at least 38 and LNP under 40 to win.

  8. Another amusing result of brexit:
    Labours ONLY Scottish MP Ian Murray is, of course, shadow Scottish Secretary. But he has resigned in opposition to Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership. Labour will have to appoint a Welsh or English MP (or an unelected Lord) as shadow Scottish Secretary. 🙂
    Westminster is a farcical undemocratic loons home!!!

  9. I despair for a lot of things:

    The media has become so conditioned by r-w thinking they are simply like automatons. They have no compunction in slanting information so the voter acts against his/her own, and the community’s self interest.

    They’ve been complaining bitterly that parties and their leaders are populist and poll-driven, yet when a party shows honesty, a pathway forward, good policy, all the media wants to concentrate on the politics and how ALP has made a ‘mistake’ in unveiling their true costings.

    Not one word about the fact that the Libs are lying about their costings if they continue to use the zombie measures, for instance, as a prop to their numbers.

    Sometimes I want to spit!

    The media tells us were cynical, disengaged etc. etc. when the cynicism starts in their court. And if they don’t report the policy, just the politics … of course the public becomes disengaged and cynical.

  10. trand @ #955 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 10:27 pm

    Primaries 43 and 36…still nothing in it

    Absolutely …seat-by-seat contests…G PV @ 9%, unmoved from 2013. So “other” PV must be at around 12%…very significant. This election has always been about the expression of “other” voting intention…where it has been drawn from and where it will settle after prefs….These are the homeless voters, exiles from Liberalism, those who took temporary refuge with PUP, the evangels who assemble in the hostels of the Christians or who try to warm themselves with the glow of the rejectors and escapists. Labor needs them.

  11. BB

    I suppose when you’re Living National Treasure, Annabel Crabbe, you get to decide what’s “in” and what’s “out” of line. Her commentary is proof enough that if you don’t follow the MSM’s rules, you don’t rate.

    Annabel Crabbe is always worth ignoring.

  12. After another airing of the robot hands ad, I have come to the conclusion that at first he was doing some judo chops, followed by tossing pancakes.

  13. So LNP gains two primaries out of no where (independents/greens).

    Turnbull lost ground on satisfaction & preferred PM.

    LNP still want only to be majority gov.

  14. Newscorp papers will always go hard just before the election. Labor will have to overcome not just Coalition but Murdoch too, it is just the way it is.

  15. During primetime tv tonight I saw a Greens advert re Jason Ball candidate for Higgins. The Greens must think Ball has a real hot go at the seat

  16. Victoria

    I hope they are right. If they are public statements by media types about seat polling have been wrong on seat numbers. If Higgins go a lot more marginals at risk.

  17. murdoch stuffed UK europe and world and seems about to do so again for oz

    without him our precious democracy might work – it would always be +4% to labor more

  18. Went to the Labor launch in Brisbane today. Bill looked very relaxed in in control. Still going very hard on Medicare. NBN and education policies also strongly featured. Asked us all to dig deeper for the sprint to the finish. Says Labor can win.

  19. gary @ #984 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 10:48 pm

    I wouldn’t be ruling out a minority government. Too many unknowns.

    Much as I would desperately like to see a Labor victory, a hung Parliament would be a pretty good second prize for Labor. A hell of a lot better for Labor than for the Coalition. Especially if the Coalition has to do all kinds of deals with NXT, country independents and Wilkie to form a minority government. And that’s without taking into account how a new Senate would look. Let alone the internal bloodletting that will happen as the Coalition trades a stonking majority for a precarious hold on power.

    Echoes of 1941 (though hopefully without a war involved).

    It’s a long way from being over.

  20. Polls:
    either the PM and deputy PM are in danger of losing their seats along with most of the SA Libs and a host of Lib/Nat MPs, or we are going to give billions of dollars in tax cuts to support destitute London bankers and their shareholders, or something in between

  21. roger bottomley @ #991 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 10:56 pm

    Two point PV increase to the baddies. Labor stays on 36.

    The rise in polled LNP support is matched by a decline in measured “other” and G-voting intention, something that seems to be invariably overstated. If polled voting intention is 9%, maybe the final actual will be around 7%. This is consistent with the strength of NXT and “other” appeals and would correspond with the negligible impact of the G campaign outside a few selected House contests. Newspoll’s measure of G-voting intention peaked at 14% on June 16 last year.

    Maybe the Lib messaging against a G-Labor coalition is drawing Lib-positive G voters back to the Liberals. Labor has been doing two things: telling everyone there can be no coalition while also placing the Gs 2nd on their cards, in effect rebuffing their Party-line campaigns while also serenading G voters; saying to these voters “We are close to you. Forget those lines about Labor and Liberal being the same. We are just like you.”

    Doubtless G voters will be feeling a bit confused. What is the point of voting G? Why would Labor-positive voters support G candidates if there can be no coalition – if DiN’s expectations will not be met? Why not just vote Labor (or Liberal) instead?

    Why use the Gs to protest in the Senate when there are so many other options? And when the Senate is going to be a key battleground in the new Parliament? What is the relevance of the G-Party in this election?

  22. Hi William,

    Have you been able to find out any more about the sample size and field dates for the Galaxy poll published in the News Corp Sunday papers?

    TC

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