Galaxy: 50-50

Yet another poll recording nothing in it on two-party preferred, this time with the novelty factor of a follow-up question probing how the Coalition might have gone if Tony Abbott had been kept as leader.

The Sunday News Corp papers have a national federal poll from Galaxy, although their websites are being a little coy about the fact. The poll shows two-party preferred at 50-50, which is all I can tell you about voting intention at this stage, because I’m not seeing any primary votes, sample sizes or field work dates. (UPDATE: Primary votes here – Coalition 42%, Labor 35% and Greens 11%). The report does relate that a follow-up question found Labor would lead 53-47 if Tony Abbott was still Liberal leader; that 38% believe Labor’s claim that a Coalition government would privatise Medicare, compared with 45% who don’t; and that 30% believe Malcolm Turnbull’s claim that Labor’s negative gearing reforms would drive down house prices, compared with 40% who don’t. More to follow on that at a later time.

In other news, today’s Fairfax papers have a report canvassing party insiders’ views on the state of the horse race:

• A Nationals source is quoted saying the party is “pretty nervous” about Rob Oakeshott’s challenge to Luke Hartsuyker in Cowper, and “fearful of losing Page”, where Labor’s Janelle Saffin seeks to recover the seat she lost to Kevin Hogan in 2013. However, its polling is also said to show Barnaby Joyce leading Tony Windsor in New England.

• Labor is said to be confident about the outer Sydney seat of Macarthur, but less so about other Sydney marginals including Lindsay and Banks.

• In Central Queensland, Capricornia and Flynn are rated as “likely Labor gains”, while Nationals MP George Christensen is “precarious” in Dawson.

• In Victoria, Corangamite is said to be the only Liberal-held seat Labor is now targeting, suggesting it is not hopeful about the Melbourne seats of Dunkley, Deakin and La Trobe. The Labor-versus-Greens contest in Batman is rated as lineball, but Labor is thought unlikely to lose its vulnerable Melbourne seats of Chisholm and Bruce to the Liberals. Liberal candidate Chris Jermyn’s poor performance is thought likely to save Labor from the Country Fire Authority backlash in McEwen, but the controversy is giving the Liberals an “outside chance” in Bendigo.

Further:

• David Crowe of The Australian reports Jacqui Lambie is “performing so strongly in Tasmania that major party observers expect her to win and perhaps gain enough votes to elect her running mate, Devonport mayor Steve Martin”. The report also suggests the Nick Xenophon Team could potentially win seats in Victoria and Western Australia, and suggests Derryn Hinch, Bob Day and David Leyonhjelm are stronger prospects than Pauline Hanson and Glenn Lazarus, without writing either off (unlike Ricky Muir and John Madigan, who don’t rate a mention).

• Sarah Elks of The Australian reports on Labor efforts to shore up Terri Butler, its member for the inner southern Brisbane seat of Griffith, citing Liberal National Party insiders who say “the ALP has been panicked into throwing money at a seat it is no danger of losing”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

998 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50”

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  2. Chris Kenny spruiking a good Newspoll for TCT reminds me of 2007 when Dennis Shanahan used to trawl through the categories to find some obscure demographic that still liked John Howard.

    Kenny may well have better news but whatever it is I remain confident that TCT is going to lose seats, maybe not enough for labor to govern, and that spells doom for the leader.

    That probably won’t bother the Murdoch operatives as they have never liked him anyway.

  3. peterjukes: Mesmerising can include frightening. I certainly think #Brexit catastrophic, especially for the vulnerable @Adeodatus @cjocarroll

  4. Swamprat
    The Scotland Act is an Act of Westminster Parliament. They can amend it or override it anytime.<    /blockquote>

    That would only be a good idea if the aim to to guarantee a successful second independence referendum.

  5. tpof @ #892 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 9:27 pm

    swamprat @ #887 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 9:25 pm

    Guytaur
    The Scotland Act is an Act of Westmenster Parliament. They can amend it or override it anytime.

    Of course they can. But that way lies even more grief for the UK. And certain Scottish secession.

    And revolt elsewhere. Westminster would lose whatever claim they might have to legitimacy in the minor realms. Imagine what would happen if they tried to repeal the Australia Act or the Canada Act. Cameron has precipitated the dissolution of the Union and its economic liquidation, soon to be followed by the collapse of the Tory Party. The Tories will be synonymous with misrule…with national disorder.

  6. Lol!

    Carlo Perrotta
    Carlo Perrotta – ‏@carloper

    The last 2 days of English politics have been the most tragic display of ineptitude I’ve ever seen in my life, and I am Italian.
    2:08 PM – 25 Jun 2016
    2,338 RETWEETS2,553 LIKES

  7. I know you guys are bored and all that – but can’t we have a separate list for the Brexit stuff? I have enough of it …

  9. victoria @ #906 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 9:34 pm

    Lol!
    Carlo Perrotta
    Carlo Perrotta – ‏@carloper
    The last 2 days of English politics have been the most tragic display of ineptitude I’ve ever seen in my life, and I am Italian.
    2:08 PM – 25 Jun 2016
    2,338 RETWEETS2,553 LIKES

    Who on earth would entrust anything important to the Tories?

  10. Briefly
    This would be to do the English a very large favour.

    Forgive the extended metaphor, but it certainly seems like the English are emerging hung over and regretful after their Brexit binge, and are now regretting the long litany of mistakes that led to this massive headache.

  11. People smugglers are arranging for flotillas of boats carrying English refugees to set sail from Plymouth as I type this.

    Very funny 🙂

  12. Anyone born on the island of Ireland is entitled to claim Irish Republic citizenship and an EU passport. Until Thursday it was only the Catholics who took it up. Now Paisley jr. Is telling unionists to become Irish Citizens – de facto unification. The world has gone mad.

  13. Mark Colvin ‏@Colvinius 7m7 minutes ago
    The young left who joined Labour in droves for Corbyn might well feel aggrieved at his Brexit foot-dragging.

    Sorry but Corbyn is a fool and a poor leader.

  14. Dan Gulberry,

    “People smugglers are arranging for flotillas of boats carrying English refugees to set sail from Plymouth as I type this.”

    For their sake I hope they don’t sail past Gibraltar. I hear the monkeys aren’t happy about the Brexit outcome and plan to chuck their shit at them.

  15. [Until Thursday it was only the Catholics who took it up. ]

    You mean:

    Until Thursday it was only Irish Nationalists who took it up. (There are protestants who are nationalists too.)

  16. On a quick reading it’s not at all clear to me how s 29 of the Scotland Act 1998 would give the Scots the power to veto Brexit. See http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/29. In fact, it would appear that the opposite is the case: the Scottish Parliament cannot legislate on “reserved matters”, and Schedule 5 of the Act states that: “International relations, including relations with territories outside the United Kingdom, the European Union(and their institutions) and other international organisations, regulation of international trade, and international development assistance and co-operation are reserved matters.”

  18. TheKouk: Next Liberal leader odds

    Morrison $2.50
    Baird $5.00
    Bishop $7.50
    Frydenberg, Hunt $11
    O’Dwyer, Pyne $16
    Porter, Abbott, Ley $21 #ausvotes

  20. If the Tory party splits which seems quite likely then Labour would probably win an election easily. Opinion polls show Labour competitive with Tories over recent months. Sounds like a death or glory coup by people not happy with Corbyn.

    The first past the post voting system will also be thoroughly exposed if more splitting occurs.

  21. Swamprat

    I have a question about Scotland. I can’t find the information anywhere but the SNP signed an agreement with any party about supply and confidence?
    They are still a few seats short of a majority.

  22. MichaelLCrick: Unite leader Len McCluskey tells me it’s “pathetic and futile coup” against Corbyn, “drip-fed”. Says Tom Watson will back Corbyn

  28. (And no, I am not saying speculation on the next Liberal leader is necessarily something that could be relevant soon – it might not be relevant for another decade for all we know.)

  29. barriecassidy: Polling tomorrow has Coalition in front 2 PP for the first time in the campaign. #auspol

    Well… besides the most recent ReachTel and I think there was an Ipsos early in the campaign…

  31. My honest opinion is that here is Brisbane there will be a strong pro-Turnbull swing. There is no warmth towards Labor that I can detect. Indeed I detect hostility.

    I very much hope I am wrong, but I am detecting no good will at all and some open hostility. It feels like 2010 to me.

  34. The media companies/journos love of particular polls should be investigated by the ACCC. ABC of all outlets should not be giving Newspoll priority as per Cassidy comment.

  35. david @ #917 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 9:49 pm

    A popular comment on the Guardian is now doing the rounds. Virtually which ever way Boris’s goes he is politcally finished.
    http://indy100.independent.co.uk/article/people-are-really-really-hoping-this-theory-about-david-cameron-and-brexit-is-true–bJhqBql0VZ

    So Cameron has somehow “won” by lying to the British public and proving that he cannot be trusted to keep his word?

    Sounds plausible … if you are a Tory.

  36. Was going to just comment: I wonder how many more times J Bishop will be the deputy to another leader.

    If the Libs move into oppo status this election she’ll be toast as Deputy. Then again this is the Libs we’re talking about, and their cockroach tendencies towards their own kind, so who knows!

  41. DTT:

    Have you addressed William’s argument about your opinions representing the ecological fallacy ,as he posted earlier?

  42. Oakeshott Country,

    “Anyone born on the island of Ireland is entitled to claim Irish Republic citizenship and an EU passport. Until Thursday it was only the Catholics who took it up. Now Paisley jr. Is telling unionists to become Irish Citizens – de facto unification”.

    I think it’s more a case of them covering their arses.

    When they go to Rome on their holidays and come across the Pope having a stroll across the Piazza del Whatsitname, they can kick him in the shins and then call on the Irish Ambassador to bail them out.

  44. daretotread @ #931 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 10:02 pm

    My honest opinion is that here is Brisbane there will be a strong pro-Turnbull swing. There is no warmth towards Labor that I can detect. Indeed I detect hostility.
    I very much hope I am wrong, but I am detecting no good will at all and some open hostility. It feels like 2010 to me.

    Well you did reveal the sort of company you keep… 😛

  49. Ghostie hasn’t been first for a while, RL2. Chris Kenny is holder of the keys now … and Cassidy has had the word early past couple of Newspolls. Are they mates?

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