Galaxy: 50-50

Yet another poll recording nothing in it on two-party preferred, this time with the novelty factor of a follow-up question probing how the Coalition might have gone if Tony Abbott had been kept as leader.

The Sunday News Corp papers have a national federal poll from Galaxy, although their websites are being a little coy about the fact. The poll shows two-party preferred at 50-50, which is all I can tell you about voting intention at this stage, because I’m not seeing any primary votes, sample sizes or field work dates. (UPDATE: Primary votes here – Coalition 42%, Labor 35% and Greens 11%). The report does relate that a follow-up question found Labor would lead 53-47 if Tony Abbott was still Liberal leader; that 38% believe Labor’s claim that a Coalition government would privatise Medicare, compared with 45% who don’t; and that 30% believe Malcolm Turnbull’s claim that Labor’s negative gearing reforms would drive down house prices, compared with 40% who don’t. More to follow on that at a later time.

In other news, today’s Fairfax papers have a report canvassing party insiders’ views on the state of the horse race:

• A Nationals source is quoted saying the party is “pretty nervous” about Rob Oakeshott’s challenge to Luke Hartsuyker in Cowper, and “fearful of losing Page”, where Labor’s Janelle Saffin seeks to recover the seat she lost to Kevin Hogan in 2013. However, its polling is also said to show Barnaby Joyce leading Tony Windsor in New England.

• Labor is said to be confident about the outer Sydney seat of Macarthur, but less so about other Sydney marginals including Lindsay and Banks.

• In Central Queensland, Capricornia and Flynn are rated as “likely Labor gains”, while Nationals MP George Christensen is “precarious” in Dawson.

• In Victoria, Corangamite is said to be the only Liberal-held seat Labor is now targeting, suggesting it is not hopeful about the Melbourne seats of Dunkley, Deakin and La Trobe. The Labor-versus-Greens contest in Batman is rated as lineball, but Labor is thought unlikely to lose its vulnerable Melbourne seats of Chisholm and Bruce to the Liberals. Liberal candidate Chris Jermyn’s poor performance is thought likely to save Labor from the Country Fire Authority backlash in McEwen, but the controversy is giving the Liberals an “outside chance” in Bendigo.


David Crowe of The Australian reports Jacqui Lambie is “performing so strongly in Tasmania that major party observers expect her to win and perhaps gain enough votes to elect her running mate, Devonport mayor Steve Martin”. The report also suggests the Nick Xenophon Team could potentially win seats in Victoria and Western Australia, and suggests Derryn Hinch, Bob Day and David Leyonhjelm are stronger prospects than Pauline Hanson and Glenn Lazarus, without writing either off (unlike Ricky Muir and John Madigan, who don’t rate a mention).

Sarah Elks of The Australian reports on Labor efforts to shore up Terri Butler, its member for the inner southern Brisbane seat of Griffith, citing Liberal National Party insiders who say “the ALP has been panicked into throwing money at a seat it is no danger of losing”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

998 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50”

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  1. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Looks like Scotland will jump to stay.
    The worst floods in a century hit the US. Now how would all that water got into the atmosphere?
    Paul Keating summed up the Greens.
    Labor should make a big deal of this to show the true colour of the government and its divisiveness.
    Like this.
    More from Mark Kenny on how the SSM plebiscite will affect Turnbull.
    Young Britons are feeling despair and fear over Brexit. (I’m watching Sky UK at the moment and they have been showing really strong regression analyses of the divides according to age, education, employment and wealth).
    Unpacking the fallout from Brexit.
    Theresa May emerges as the “Stop Boris” campaign begins.
    There are liars and then there are Boris Johnson and Michael Gove. Top stuff.

  2. Section 2 . . .

    Britons may well be leaving the EU because of a lie.
    Urban Wronski says that Turnbull failed to lead on Brexit.
    Brexit might fundamentally change the future of Europe as EU leaders scramble to prevent a domino effect.
    Now THAT’S a stunt! And Glen Lazarus does have a point.
    Tony Wright on Kelly O’Bigmouth not being happy being associated with the Puff Adder.
    I hate seeing developments like this in our country.
    Michael Gordon on how Dan Andrews is hurting Shorten.
    Fact and reason are needed in the abortion debate in Queensland. A good example of why political candidates’ religious backgrounds should be made known in advance of their election.
    Elizabeth Warren joins Hilary Clinton in Ohio. Let’s hope Warren ends up being Clinton’s running mate.
    How Big Mining’s donations influence the political agenda in Canberra.,9156

  3. Section 3 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    Sam Maiden tells Turnbull that winning the election just won’t be enough. Google.
    The wheels are falling off the Rio Olympics.
    Could Turnbull lose Wentworth? Surely not!

    Alan Moir on the less than stark differences in the campaigns.

    David Pope and Brexit.

    Ron Tandberg and Turnbull’s Medicare promises.

    Pat Campbell at the entrance to the EuroTunnel.
    MUST SEE! Mark Knight with the British exit.

  4. There were ongoing fears the decision to leave the EU could hit investment, threaten London’s role as a global financial capital, and cause months of political uncertainty.
    Ratings agency Moody’s downgraded its outlook for Britain, saying its creditworthiness was now at greater risk. The uncertainty risks damaging economies far beyond Britain’s shores, and European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau joined the clamour for haste.
    Mr Villeroy delivered a warning over the City of London financial centre which handles trillions of euros of business even though it lies outside the ECB’s jurisdiction.
    That was at risk, including the ‘passport’ arrangement under Europe’s single market rules which allow London banks to do business with clients in the euro zone, even though Britain never joined the common currency.
    “If Britain is not part of the single market, the City cannot keep this European passport, and clearing houses cannot be located in London either,” he told France Inter radio.
    The only way around this was for Britain to follow Norway, which lies outside the EU but has joined the single market. This means signing up to the rules, including the free movement of workers – one of the core reasons voters chose to opt after the Leave campaign promised to control immigration from the EU.

    Read more:
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

    David Cameron will be remembered as the idiotically weak Chancellor who precipitated the break-up of the Union between Scotland and England and quite possibly the separation of Northern Island too. Even Wales, joined to England since 1277, may leave. If these peoples have any sense at all, they will also reject the monarchic order that has so ill-served them for so long and adopt republican forms. They would all be far better off as independent States inside the EU than as outliers of the decadent English.

  5. Glad to see the Keating and the bludgers are on the same page -:)

    “And yet we have the Greens saying that they are the natural home of progressive, mainstream Australia. Really? How pathetic.”
    He also pointed to Labor’s environmental credentials on the Great Barrier Reef, national parks, ozone repair, renewable energy and climate change.
    The Greens on the other hand “torpedoed” the Rudd government’s original Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, he said.
    “This is the real environmental party, the real conservation party,” he said. “We’re more Green than they are.”

    Read more:
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

  6. William.
    The report does relate that a follow-up question found Labor would lead 53-47 if Tony Abbott was still Liberal leader;

    Strange question to ask at this stage of an election, is it a desprate attempt to shore up Mals support? Looks like LNP ready to dump Mal & reinstall Tony ASAP

  7. This Galaxy poll provides the perfect opportunity for Shorten to loudly say “elect Turnbull and you get Abbott”.

  8. Don
    #1338 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 7:00 am
    tom the first and best @ #1119 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 9:14 pm
    “The weakest leader of the Libs since Downer” does not say he is weaker than Downer, it says that he is weaker than Howard, Abbott and Nelson but Downer was weaker. Everybody who knows what since means knows that.

    Mathematically, in the strictest sense of mathematics, you are correct.

    By common usage, however (which reigns supreme in matters like this) you are incorrect. I interpret it to mean ‘since and including Downer’, as I think most other people would.

  9. Don
    #1339 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 7:07 am
    kevin-one-seven @ #1128 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 9:27 pm

    Turnbull is Downer without the fishnet stockings, maybe.

    K17, that was always an unfair thing to hang on Downer, and the cartoonists played it for all it was worth, and then some. Out of the goodness of his heart he agreed to get dressed up, including the fishnet stockings, in what seemed like a good cause.

    That episode was the reason that I never agree to dressing up as a woman for school productions. A photo out of context can be used to ridicule, as it has been for Downer.

    The ‘principal boy’ in a pantomime is another matter entirely. A beautiful young woman dressed as a boy and in fishnet stockings is usually a sight for sore eyes. Downer (or me) as the Dame in pantomime, not so much.

  10. Yeah, the old mandate argument being brought up again. We said we’d do it before the election, we one the election, so you need to allow us to do it. What a joke.

  11. Could the Britexit work in Labor’s favour in the sense that enough people realise that the Libs will use any global disruption as an excuse to impose even harsher cutbacks?
    Labor OTOH has shown its ability to ride out global shocks without resorting to typical conservative austerity measures.

  12. Doubt it. People have no idea about why the Brexit referendum was raised, only the result. They also can’t remember and/or don’t believe the ALP had anything to do with stopping the GFC from taking hold here. It’s too late now to try and educate them on all of this. The best line of attack is the ALP offer stability and Abbott will replace Turnbull in months if the Libs are elected.

  13. I do wonder now why UK Labour and Corbyn could not rally the working classes.

    UK Labour, like the ALP, has a weak relationship with the working classes these days. Decades of economic policies that have increased the precariousness of employment and increased inequality of wealth and income have done immense damage to that relationship.

  14. Looks like the Democrats in the US haven’t learned much from the preliminaries or Brexit for that matter.
    The DNC platform will not be against fracking, the TPP, Israel’s occupation of Palestine and lots of other policies that voters for Sanders were strongly agitated about.

  15. Just one more Brexit post and then I will get back to OZ election, but these ticked my fancy:
    journalist Christopher Nunès wrote: “I’ve always had a low opinion of the English. A nation that can’t behead its Queen is not to be trusted!”
    and this one:
    ‘The English already want to change their minds over Brexit. Perhaps they’re on an island for a reason.’
    Thank the FSM for social media.

  16. It does distress me though to imagine that if the Coalition win the election, one of the things that they have actually flagged before the election, is dismantling the Fair Work Act. It hasn’t been as blatant as that but their form of words suggests it.

  17. And there’s that Liberal sycophant, Dr Karl, on right now. Some people will do anything to survive in the cesspit of the media.

  18. I just came in to turn on Sky News Agenda and there AGAIN! was Cormann sprouting exactly the same few lines. 15 seconds was all he got from me. Now I’m biding time to see Insiders.

  19. Samantha Maiden on the Nine Morning show. Turnbull is on the mend, having the time of his life. He’s in the box seat now with Brexit creating a need for stability. He’s also promised to end the revolving door of PMs.

    Shorten’s Mediscare campaign isn’t resonating. Struggling. Can’t find his zingers.

  20. So, with this poll, it looks very much like a 14 seat gain for the ALP but not government. Unless we get a few surprising outcomes on the night they will not have gained enough to be in a hung parlaiment position which they could use to negotiate their way to power.
    Sad really. There goes whjat is left of the NBN, Gonski, and Medicare.
    Only the Senate will stand between them and the Americsnisation of Australia.

  21. Bemused @ 11:28 pm
    diogenes @ #1234 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 10:55 pm
    Whatever happened to the ACTU? They barely seem to exist anymore. I used to always know who was their boss; now I have no idea. You see Change and GetUp and the IPA all the time but the ACTU doesn’t seem to be a player.
    Your surely jest.
    Dave Oliver is Secretary and Jed Kearney is President.

    You are too close to the action Bemused. On a scale of 1 to 10, I would estimate Bob Hawke’s public recognition was a 9, Oliver’s would be a 1, and that is rounded up.

  22. Did I just hear it claimed on Insiders that Labor’s vote is being smashed by Xenophon in SA without any mention that Xenophon is almost certainly taking more votes from the Liberals?
    It seems the voters are abandoning the Liberals for NXT instead of going to Labor, Labor is losing a lot of votes as well but not nearly as many.

  23. Nicholas.
    Are you suggesting that the greens have a better relationship with “the working class” than the ALP?
    I would suggest they don’t even if there is some truth to your comments about the ALP and “the working class”.

  24. Did I just hear it claimed on Insiders that Labor’s vote is being smashed by Xenophon in SA without any mention that Xenophon is almost certainly taking more votes from the Liberals?

    Yes it was Fran Kelly who said it.

  25. Some of my ‘green’ friends are all for another vote on #brexit because the people are only now working out what it will mean.

    I asked them if it was then ok for the religious lobby/ Abbott and Co to ignore the plebiscite on same-sex marriage (if we have one)….. [insert the sound of crickets] followed by a ‘No’, they have to accept it.


    My point. I’m sick of all people, from all sides, who play this dangerous game of not accepting the results of a democratic vote.

  26. Rummel & David,
    Cameron calling the referendum was to pander to the nut jobs in his party. Turnbull continuing with the SSM plebiscite is the same.

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