The Sunday News Corp papers have a national federal poll from Galaxy, although their websites are being a little coy about the fact. The poll shows two-party preferred at 50-50, which is all I can tell you about voting intention at this stage, because I’m not seeing any primary votes, sample sizes or field work dates. (UPDATE: Primary votes here – Coalition 42%, Labor 35% and Greens 11%). The report does relate that a follow-up question found Labor would lead 53-47 if Tony Abbott was still Liberal leader; that 38% believe Labor’s claim that a Coalition government would privatise Medicare, compared with 45% who don’t; and that 30% believe Malcolm Turnbull’s claim that Labor’s negative gearing reforms would drive down house prices, compared with 40% who don’t. More to follow on that at a later time.
In other news, today’s Fairfax papers have a report canvassing party insiders’ views on the state of the horse race:
• A Nationals source is quoted saying the party is “pretty nervous” about Rob Oakeshott’s challenge to Luke Hartsuyker in Cowper, and “fearful of losing Page”, where Labor’s Janelle Saffin seeks to recover the seat she lost to Kevin Hogan in 2013. However, its polling is also said to show Barnaby Joyce leading Tony Windsor in New England.
• Labor is said to be confident about the outer Sydney seat of Macarthur, but less so about other Sydney marginals including Lindsay and Banks.
• In Central Queensland, Capricornia and Flynn are rated as “likely Labor gains”, while Nationals MP George Christensen is “precarious” in Dawson.
• In Victoria, Corangamite is said to be the only Liberal-held seat Labor is now targeting, suggesting it is not hopeful about the Melbourne seats of Dunkley, Deakin and La Trobe. The Labor-versus-Greens contest in Batman is rated as lineball, but Labor is thought unlikely to lose its vulnerable Melbourne seats of Chisholm and Bruce to the Liberals. Liberal candidate Chris Jermyn’s poor performance is thought likely to save Labor from the Country Fire Authority backlash in McEwen, but the controversy is giving the Liberals an “outside chance” in Bendigo.
Further:
• David Crowe of The Australian reports Jacqui Lambie is “performing so strongly in Tasmania that major party observers expect her to win and perhaps gain enough votes to elect her running mate, Devonport mayor Steve Martin”. The report also suggests the Nick Xenophon Team could potentially win seats in Victoria and Western Australia, and suggests Derryn Hinch, Bob Day and David Leyonhjelm are stronger prospects than Pauline Hanson and Glenn Lazarus, without writing either off (unlike Ricky Muir and John Madigan, who don’t rate a mention).
• Sarah Elks of The Australian reports on Labor efforts to shore up Terri Butler, its member for the inner southern Brisbane seat of Griffith, citing Liberal National Party insiders who say “the ALP has been panicked into throwing money at a seat it is no danger of losing”.
If only Bob Ellis was still around…..
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Looks like Scotland will jump to stay.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/brexit-scotland-paves-the-way-for-independence-in-a-bid-to-retain-eu-membership-20160625-gpryua.html
The worst floods in a century hit the US. Now how would all that water got into the atmosphere?
http://www.smh.com.au/world/worst-floods-in-a-century-strike-west-virginia-us-kill-23-20160625-gprx2g.html
Paul Keating summed up the Greens.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/paul-keating-launches-withering-attack-on-pathetic-greens-20160625-gprqr1.html
Labor should make a big deal of this to show the true colour of the government and its divisiveness.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/samesex-marriage-secret-moves-within-coalition-to-hobble-plebiscite-20160624-gprerl.html
Like this.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jun/25/marriage-equality-shorten-says-turnbull-held-hostage-plebiscite-election
More from Mark Kenny on how the SSM plebiscite will affect Turnbull.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/brexit-vote-young-britons-despair-and-fear-20160625-gprrpp.html
Young Britons are feeling despair and fear over Brexit. (I’m watching Sky UK at the moment and they have been showing really strong regression analyses of the divides according to age, education, employment and wealth).
http://www.smh.com.au/world/brexit-vote-young-britons-despair-and-fear-20160625-gprrpp.html
Unpacking the fallout from Brexit.
http://www.theage.com.au/world/overwhelmed-by-brexit-this-is-what-it-all-means-20160625-gprs6x.html
Theresa May emerges as the “Stop Boris” campaign begins.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/25/theresa-may-emerges-as-stop-boris-tory-leadership-candidate
There are liars and then there are Boris Johnson and Michael Gove. Top stuff.
\https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/25/boris-johnson-michael-gove-eu-liars
Section 2 . . .
Britons may well be leaving the EU because of a lie.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2016/06/25/britain-left-on-lie/
Urban Wronski says that Turnbull failed to lead on Brexit.
https://urbanwronski.com/2016/06/25/turnbull-fails-to-lead-on-brexit/
Brexit might fundamentally change the future of Europe as EU leaders scramble to prevent a domino effect.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/06/25/brexit-will-fundamentally-change-the-future-of-europe/
Now THAT’S a stunt! And Glen Lazarus does have a point.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jun/25/glenn-lazarus-drives-tank-over-car-to-highlight-poor-quality-vehicle-imports
Tony Wright on Kelly O’Bigmouth not being happy being associated with the Puff Adder.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-under-fire-kelly-odwyer-scuttles-twitter-joke-while-peter-costello-rushes-to-her-aid-20160625-gprqtb.html
I hate seeing developments like this in our country.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/antiislam-antiracism-groups-to-protest-in-melbourne-again-20160625-gprybu.html
Michael Gordon on how Dan Andrews is hurting Shorten.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/election-2016-how-dan-andrews-is-hurting-bill-shorten-20160624-gpr7n1.html
Fact and reason are needed in the abortion debate in Queensland. A good example of why political candidates’ religious backgrounds should be made known in advance of their election.
http://www.smh.com.au/queensland/fact-and-reason-needed-in-abortion-debate-trad-20160625-gprrkn.html
Elizabeth Warren joins Hilary Clinton in Ohio. Let’s hope Warren ends up being Clinton’s running mate.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jun/25/hillary-clinton-elizabeth-warren-ohio-donald-trump
How Big Mining’s donations influence the political agenda in Canberra.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/how-big-minings-donations-influence-the-political-agenda-in-canberra-,9156
Section 3 . . . with Cartoon Corner
Sam Maiden tells Turnbull that winning the election just won’t be enough. Google.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/sorry-malcolm-turnbull-winnings-not-enough-in-a-double-dissolution-election/news-story/7fe94f3d1669f3dcb3cff015dcfd619d
The wheels are falling off the Rio Olympics.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/06/25/the-world-anti-doping-agency-just-shut-down-rios-olympic-testin/
Could Turnbull lose Wentworth? Surely not!
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/malcolm-turnbull-may-lose-seat-even-if-coalition-wins-the-election-20160624-gpquy8.html
Alan Moir on the less than stark differences in the campaigns.
David Pope and Brexit.
Ron Tandberg and Turnbull’s Medicare promises.
Pat Campbell at the entrance to the EuroTunnel.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/pat-campbell-20141123-1t21q.html?selectedImage=1
MUST SEE! Mark Knight with the British exit.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/f0d747ddcdb346318f101054f285a905?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/brexit-scotland-paves-the-way-for-independence-in-a-bid-to-retain-eu-membership-20160625-gpryua.html#ixzz4CcpyINxy
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook
David Cameron will be remembered as the idiotically weak Chancellor who precipitated the break-up of the Union between Scotland and England and quite possibly the separation of Northern Island too. Even Wales, joined to England since 1277, may leave. If these peoples have any sense at all, they will also reject the monarchic order that has so ill-served them for so long and adopt republican forms. They would all be far better off as independent States inside the EU than as outliers of the decadent English.
Glad to see the Keating and the bludgers are on the same page -:)
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/paul-keating-launches-withering-attack-on-pathetic-greens-20160625-gprqr1.html#ixzz4Ccx0CBJK
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook
William.
The report does relate that a follow-up question found Labor would lead 53-47 if Tony Abbott was still Liberal leader;
Strange question to ask at this stage of an election, is it a desprate attempt to shore up Mals support? Looks like LNP ready to dump Mal & reinstall Tony ASAP
This Galaxy poll provides the perfect opportunity for Shorten to loudly say “elect Turnbull and you get Abbott”.
Of course they won’t dump Turnbull for Abbott until AFTER the election.
Mathematically, in the strictest sense of mathematics, you are correct.
By common usage, however (which reigns supreme in matters like this) you are incorrect. I interpret it to mean ‘since and including Downer’, as I think most other people would.
K17, that was always an unfair thing to hang on Downer, and the cartoonists played it for all it was worth, and then some. Out of the goodness of his heart he agreed to get dressed up, including the fishnet stockings, in what seemed like a good cause.
That episode was the reason that I never agree to dressing up as a woman for school productions. A photo out of context can be used to ridicule, as it has been for Downer.
The ‘principal boy’ in a pantomime is another matter entirely. A beautiful young woman dressed as a boy and in fishnet stockings is usually a sight for sore eyes. Downer (or me) as the Dame in pantomime, not so much.
Briefly,
Do you ever sleep!?!
Oh god, I’ve opened myself up to a zinger…
Answer: Briefly
: }
News 24 hour still running full time Liberal Ad
Yeah, the old mandate argument being brought up again. We said we’d do it before the election, we one the election, so you need to allow us to do it. What a joke.
Could the Britexit work in Labor’s favour in the sense that enough people realise that the Libs will use any global disruption as an excuse to impose even harsher cutbacks?
Labor OTOH has shown its ability to ride out global shocks without resorting to typical conservative austerity measures.
Doubt it. People have no idea about why the Brexit referendum was raised, only the result. They also can’t remember and/or don’t believe the ALP had anything to do with stopping the GFC from taking hold here. It’s too late now to try and educate them on all of this. The best line of attack is the ALP offer stability and Abbott will replace Turnbull in months if the Libs are elected.
UK Labour, like the ALP, has a weak relationship with the working classes these days. Decades of economic policies that have increased the precariousness of employment and increased inequality of wealth and income have done immense damage to that relationship.
ABC has really jumped the shark this election.
It’s never been this blatant or cringeworthy before.
Looks like the Democrats in the US haven’t learned much from the preliminaries or Brexit for that matter.
The DNC platform will not be against fracking, the TPP, Israel’s occupation of Palestine and lots of other policies that voters for Sanders were strongly agitated about.
Just one more Brexit post and then I will get back to OZ election, but these ticked my fancy:
journalist Christopher Nunès wrote: “I’ve always had a low opinion of the English. A nation that can’t behead its Queen is not to be trusted!”
and this one:
‘The English already want to change their minds over Brexit. Perhaps they’re on an island for a reason.’
Thank the FSM for social media.
At least The Age saw through the CFA astroturfing so as to recommend a vote for Labor.
It does distress me though to imagine that if the Coalition win the election, one of the things that they have actually flagged before the election, is dismantling the Fair Work Act. It hasn’t been as blatant as that but their form of words suggests it.
And there’s that Liberal sycophant, Dr Karl, on right now. Some people will do anything to survive in the cesspit of the media.
I just came in to turn on Sky News Agenda and there AGAIN! was Cormann sprouting exactly the same few lines. 15 seconds was all he got from me. Now I’m biding time to see Insiders.
Samantha Maiden on the Nine Morning show. Turnbull is on the mend, having the time of his life. He’s in the box seat now with Brexit creating a need for stability. He’s also promised to end the revolving door of PMs.
Shorten’s Mediscare campaign isn’t resonating. Struggling. Can’t find his zingers.
It has been said that Brexit has freed up 1Gb of space for the EU.
Tom.
J K
Well, that’s alright, then. !!
Oh, I do miss the sophisticated emoticons.
So, with this poll, it looks very much like a 14 seat gain for the ALP but not government. Unless we get a few surprising outcomes on the night they will not have gained enough to be in a hung parlaiment position which they could use to negotiate their way to power.
Sad really. There goes whjat is left of the NBN, Gonski, and Medicare.
Only the Senate will stand between them and the Americsnisation of Australia.
Bemused @ 11:28 pm
diogenes @ #1234 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 10:55 pm
Whatever happened to the ACTU? They barely seem to exist anymore. I used to always know who was their boss; now I have no idea. You see Change and GetUp and the IPA all the time but the ACTU doesn’t seem to be a player.
Your surely jest.
Dave Oliver is Secretary and Jed Kearney is President.
You are too close to the action Bemused. On a scale of 1 to 10, I would estimate Bob Hawke’s public recognition was a 9, Oliver’s would be a 1, and that is rounded up.
lizzie @ #29 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 8:58 am
Yeah, Crikey and Poll Bludger appear to have capitulated to the emoticon bullies. : (
Did I just hear it claimed on Insiders that Labor’s vote is being smashed by Xenophon in SA without any mention that Xenophon is almost certainly taking more votes from the Liberals?
It seems the voters are abandoning the Liberals for NXT instead of going to Labor, Labor is losing a lot of votes as well but not nearly as many.
Nicholas.
Are you suggesting that the greens have a better relationship with “the working class” than the ALP?
I would suggest they don’t even if there is some truth to your comments about the ALP and “the working class”.
Edi
It WAS Fran Kelly that said it!
You probably did Edi, but it is the ABC after all.
Yes it was Fran Kelly who said it.
Of course, that renowned independent political analyst Fran Kelly.
No, I am not.
At least Barrie is allowing Tanya to speak without interruption.
Tanya P is slaughtering Cassidy’s gothcha attempts.
Plibersek is showing again she’s the best performer for the federal ALP.
lizzie
Yes. I’ll give Cassidy that.
Lizzie:
Yes I noticed that too. Excellent performance by Plibersek.
Some of my ‘green’ friends are all for another vote on #brexit because the people are only now working out what it will mean.
I asked them if it was then ok for the religious lobby/ Abbott and Co to ignore the plebiscite on same-sex marriage (if we have one)….. [insert the sound of crickets] followed by a ‘No’, they have to accept it.
Hypocrits.
My point. I’m sick of all people, from all sides, who play this dangerous game of not accepting the results of a democratic vote.
Fran slags off Morrison!
We are on the same page with that sentiment Rummel
Gannon “setting it all in perspective” says Barrie. Oh, come on…
Rummel & David,
Cameron calling the referendum was to pander to the nut jobs in his party. Turnbull continuing with the SSM plebiscite is the same.
Fran hasn’t annoyed me yet.