Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

With a week to go, Newspoll finds the Coalition poking its nose in front for the first time since March, albeit by the barest possible margin.

The Australian reports Newspoll shows the Coalition opening a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of Coalition 43% (up two), Labor 36% (steady) and Greens 9% (down one). Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 37% and steady on disapproval at 51%, Bill Shorten is steady at 35% and down one to 50%, and Turnbull leads 45-30 as preferred prime minister. The poll of 1713 respondents was conducted Thursday to Sunday. Here’s the latest BludgerTrack update, including tonight’s Newspoll and yesterday’s Galaxy:


Here’s a closer look at how the minor party vote has tracked since the 2013 election, with the Greens shown in green, Palmer United in orange-brown, and others in grey.


Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,037 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 1 of 21
1 2 21
  1. Is there an IPSOS tonight as well?
    Buckle up, Labor supporters, you know the MSM tomorrow will jump all over this as proof of momentum for Malcolm.

  2. From last thread:

    gary @ #984 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 10:48 pm

    I wouldn’t be ruling out a minority government. Too many unknowns.

    Much as I would desperately like to see a Labor victory, a hung Parliament would be a pretty good second prize for Labor. A hell of a lot better for Labor than for the Coalition. Especially if the Coalition has to do all kinds of deals with NXT, country independents and Wilkie to form a minority government. And that’s without taking into account how a new Senate would look. Let alone the internal bloodletting that will happen as the Coalition trades a stonking majority for a precarious hold on power.

    Echoes of 1941 (though hopefully without a war involved).

    It’s a long way from being over.

  3. UK Labour update…….the number of shadow ministers who have resigned is up to 7, with more to come apparently.

  4. POSS, not sure what the rabbit might be. I think they should just stay on message. Still probably 10 % or so undecided.

  5. The next Ipsos poll will be out on Thursday evening. I presume there will be a Newspoll on the Friday evening. If you think you can wait that long, there will be an election on Saturday.

  6. There must be good chance of a new general election in UK this year as both Tory and Labour Parties engage in civil war!

  7. Polls:
    either the PM and deputy PM are in danger of losing their seats along with most of the SA Libs and a host of Lib/Nat MPs, or we are going to give billions of dollars in tax cuts to support destitute London bankers and their shareholders, or something in between

  8. I was hoping for Labor to commit to a federal corruption watchdog and propose reforms to political donations with a much tighter guidelines for MP salary and entitlements. I don’t know if it is a case of skelotons in the closet or not but I think that’s a missed opportunity to reach out to disengaged and disillusioned voter.

    I am still cautiously optimistic but this is not where I wanted the polls to point at at this point.

  9. Jeremy Corbyn has a good heart and seems like a nice person, but I doubt he’d ever had the appeal to win a general election.
    I reckon the next British Labour leader is either Dan Jarvis or Lisa Nandy

  10. As are The Greens my dear if they want to improve on their 2013 vote, which it is hovering around now.

    Not according to BludgerTrack, sweetie.

  11. Paradoxically, this is good for Labor, in the sense that people will now expect Turnball is going to win, so it’s easier to issue a protest vote and not feel guilty about it

  12. Well, I’m old enough to remember the old Sydney paper, The Daily Mirror, and its poll headline during the December 1975 general election.

    I couldn’t believe it.

    GOUGH GONE! it said. I couldn’t understand how a supposedly sane Australian public could throw out a government that had never been given a chance, had been dismissed as the result of a virtual coup, but most importantly, had done so much for the Australian people, then and into the future.

    It was my first lesson in how, if enough hatred is whipped up, the media can sway elections.

    But only my first lesson.

  13. So whats Malcolm gonna do if he gets re elected. He has no policy agenda only a slogan. Probably another 3 years of stagnation.

  14. The rise in polled LNP support is matched by a decline in measured “other” and G-voting intention, something that seems to be invariably overstated. If polled voting intention is 9%, maybe the final actual will be around 7%. This is consistent with the strength of NXT and “other” appeals and would correspond with the negligible impact of the G campaign outside a few selected House contests. Newspoll’s measure of G-voting intention peaked at 14% on June 16 last year.

    Maybe the Lib messaging against a G-Labor coalition is drawing Lib-positive G voters back to the Liberals. Labor has been doing two things: telling everyone there can be no coalition while also placing the Gs 2nd on their cards, in effect rebuffing their Party-line campaigns while also serenading G voters; saying to these voters “We are close to you. Forget those lines about Labor and Liberal being the same. We are just like you.”

    Doubtless G voters will be feeling a bit confused. What is the point of voting G? Why would Labor-positive voters support G candidates if there can be no coalition – if DiN’s expectations will not be met? Why not just vote Labor (or Liberal) instead?

    Why use the Gs to protest in the Senate when there are so many other options? And when the Senate is going to be a key battleground in the new Parliament? What is the relevance of the G-Party in this election?

  15. Truffle’s Brexit scare campaign having a slight but, I suspect very short lived effect..

    ..voters will re-focus between now & Saturday & it’s still line ball..

  16. daretotread @ #11 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 11:04 pm

    UK Labour Pary in self destruct mode. Cannot see that changing leaders will help them one whit.

    The point is that the Tories are going to completely collapse. Labour will be the only party remotely capable of governing and to do that they must first dispose of the current leadership. They can then clearly re-state their opposition to Brexit, oppose it in the Parliament, provoke a split in the Tories, precipitate their defeat and procure a new election on a “Remain” platform.

    This is the only path open to Labour and the UK.

  17. This is still very winnable – so far Shorten and the team have not put a foot wrong – I have every faith they will fight to the end and quite likely, win.

  18. Briefly turning his wishful thinking up to eleven. In fact, Newspoll had the Greens vote (and the Others vote, and the Labor vote, and the Liberals vote, and the 2PP) all correct to the nearest whole number in 2013.

  19. British Labour members have a tough choice – ideological purity or victory. Corbyn is hopelessly out of his depth as the leader of a major political party.

    It would be nice if they could find a candidate that the members can get behind, and that people will actually vote for. Corbyn ain’t it.

  20. And Galaxy which polls under the Newspoll brand now had the Greens vote correct to the nearest whole number but had Labor’s PV at 35 when it was in fact 33.4. Maybe that’s the 2 percentage point disparity Briefly was looking for?

  21. Last Newspoll from 2013; ALP 33%, LNP 46%, GRN 9%, OTH 12%
    Newspoll change; ALP +3%, LNP -3%, GRN 0%, OTH 0%

    Greens always think this will be the year, but they always fade, they will probably lose a senator in SA.
    A bit surprised OTH hasnt changed, but i guess the real story is the number hasnt changed, but i suspect the voters have, last election OTH probably had a lot disgruntled ALP voters, this year OTH is disgruntled LNP voters.

  22. I believe the members of the Labour party should have the vote on whether they want to keep Corbyn or not,despite the resignations.

  23. It becomes clearer that many Greens supporters on this site become positively gleeful at the prospect of a Labor loss. It confirms my experience of them – they don’t want to achieve, they want to protest.

  24. Cupid I think in the UK Labor members DO vote for leader – it took months after the last election loss and momentum was lost. Many who voted for Corbyn now see him as ineffectual – there must be a change.

Comments Page 1 of 21
1 2 21

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *