Galaxy: 50-50

Yet another poll recording nothing in it on two-party preferred, this time with the novelty factor of a follow-up question probing how the Coalition might have gone if Tony Abbott had been kept as leader.

The Sunday News Corp papers have a national federal poll from Galaxy, although their websites are being a little coy about the fact. The poll shows two-party preferred at 50-50, which is all I can tell you about voting intention at this stage, because I’m not seeing any primary votes, sample sizes or field work dates. (UPDATE: Primary votes here – Coalition 42%, Labor 35% and Greens 11%). The report does relate that a follow-up question found Labor would lead 53-47 if Tony Abbott was still Liberal leader; that 38% believe Labor’s claim that a Coalition government would privatise Medicare, compared with 45% who don’t; and that 30% believe Malcolm Turnbull’s claim that Labor’s negative gearing reforms would drive down house prices, compared with 40% who don’t. More to follow on that at a later time.

In other news, today’s Fairfax papers have a report canvassing party insiders’ views on the state of the horse race:

• A Nationals source is quoted saying the party is “pretty nervous” about Rob Oakeshott’s challenge to Luke Hartsuyker in Cowper, and “fearful of losing Page”, where Labor’s Janelle Saffin seeks to recover the seat she lost to Kevin Hogan in 2013. However, its polling is also said to show Barnaby Joyce leading Tony Windsor in New England.

• Labor is said to be confident about the outer Sydney seat of Macarthur, but less so about other Sydney marginals including Lindsay and Banks.

• In Central Queensland, Capricornia and Flynn are rated as “likely Labor gains”, while Nationals MP George Christensen is “precarious” in Dawson.

• In Victoria, Corangamite is said to be the only Liberal-held seat Labor is now targeting, suggesting it is not hopeful about the Melbourne seats of Dunkley, Deakin and La Trobe. The Labor-versus-Greens contest in Batman is rated as lineball, but Labor is thought unlikely to lose its vulnerable Melbourne seats of Chisholm and Bruce to the Liberals. Liberal candidate Chris Jermyn’s poor performance is thought likely to save Labor from the Country Fire Authority backlash in McEwen, but the controversy is giving the Liberals an “outside chance” in Bendigo.

Further:

David Crowe of The Australian reports Jacqui Lambie is “performing so strongly in Tasmania that major party observers expect her to win and perhaps gain enough votes to elect her running mate, Devonport mayor Steve Martin”. The report also suggests the Nick Xenophon Team could potentially win seats in Victoria and Western Australia, and suggests Derryn Hinch, Bob Day and David Leyonhjelm are stronger prospects than Pauline Hanson and Glenn Lazarus, without writing either off (unlike Ricky Muir and John Madigan, who don’t rate a mention).

Sarah Elks of The Australian reports on Labor efforts to shore up Terri Butler, its member for the inner southern Brisbane seat of Griffith, citing Liberal National Party insiders who say “the ALP has been panicked into throwing money at a seat it is no danger of losing”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

998 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50”

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  1. Question.

    It does not matter why the referendum was called. The result is in. Are we ready to toss the democratic principles out of the window?. Naturally, I would prefer a right leaning Dictator to rain on the Green parade.

  2. [My point. I’m sick of all people, from all sides, who play this dangerous game of not accepting the results of a democratic vote.]

    I’m sick of weak leadership and dumb politicians not doing their job and holding a referendum to paper the gap. If the Parliament is constrained by a binding constitution the by all means if they think it needs changing show some damn leadership, say what should change and why, and yes a referendum is required. But using popular votes as a delaying tactic or out of cowardice is something that must stop.

  3. I understand Rummel,
    But from my POV, both are more to do with Right Wing stuff ups than Left hypocrisy on democracy. And as you point out, Turnbull will allow a conscious vote anyway, so what is the point?

  4. If the electorate look at poll results like this, and have any sense, they would be absolutely nuts to vote for Turnbull. Re-electing a deeply wounded leader of a deeply divided party is not a recipe for good government.

  5. [It does not matter why the referendum was called. The result is in.]

    It matters a lot. What does the result mean? A real referendum, not an exercise in cowardice, should have a single totally binding outcome.

  6. Quite frankly I don’t see why Cameron does not follow Turnbull’s lead and allow a conscience vote in Parliament on leaving the EU.

  7. I don’t pretend to understand the British rules, but I don’t think the Brexit referendum is binding on the British parliament. So why isn’t Cameron offering a conscious vote?

  8. rossmcg

    Both Johnson and Gove will bring unique talents to running Britain. Both are former journalists!

    As was Abbott. There’s a pattern forming there.

  9. A good link and information about the CFA issues from an Associate Professor at the ANU College of Law, the Australian National University.

    https://emergencylaw.wordpress.com/2016/06/24/the-cfa-enterprise-bargaining-dispute/

    “Conclusion
    In the absence of some detailed explanation from the UFU as to why this is not the case and how the agreement won’t alter the ‘role of volunteers in fighting bushfires and maintaining community safety’ then I have to agree with Rush QC’s opinion that:

    The enterprise bargaining agreement, central to the sackings, is contrary to the CFA Act.
    It provides unprecedented powers within the CFA to the United Firefighters Union.
    The EBA undermines the role and independence of volunteers.
    Those sacked or resigning had no choice but to oppose the EBA”

  10. If nationalism continues to rise in Europe, no good will come from it. History will not judge Cameron well and at this stage he should be doing more to preserve his legacy and the UK, rather than whats good for the Tory’s, who forced him into this mess.

  11. “I’m sick of weak leadership and dumb politicians not doing their job and holding a referendum to paper the gap.”

    I dare say the Brexit voters agree with you.

    On Gay Marriage. Are the number really there to get the vote over the line in the house?

  12. [Consistent with the increases in staffing provided in this Agreement, the CFA will conduct an extensive range of preventative and preparedness programs and meet its duty of care by ensuring a minimum of seven professional firefighters to fireground incidents are dispatched before commencement of safe firefighting operations. This requirement applies to integrated stations in Districts 2, 7, 8, 13, 14, 15 and 27. Consistent with the increases in staffing provided for in this Agreement, CFA will also ensure that there is a minimum of seven professional firefighters to fireground incidents that professional firefighters are dispatched to ]

    Appalling Rummel you are right, they want to be safe and have professionals about, the scum!

  13. “rossmcg
    Both Johnson and Gove will bring unique talents to running Britain. Both are former journalists!
    As was Abbott. There’s a pattern forming there.”
    There’s also a law forming here: don’t let journalists near political office!

  14. [On Gay Marriage. Are the number really there to get the vote over the line in the house?]

    If there isn’t there is a problem with how representative our representatives are, and that is why Grand Sir Mal of Panama and the Caymans is dancing to the crazies tune.

  15. The Real Brexit “Catastrophe”: World’s 400 Richest People Lose $127 Billion

    For all the scaremongering and threats of an imminent financial apocalypse should Brexit win, including dire forecasts from the likes of George Soros, the Bank of England, David Cameron (who even invoked war), and even Jacob Rothschild, something “unexpected” happened yesterday: the UK was the best performing European market following the Brexit outcome.

    …Ironically, it turns out that when George Soros threatened “The Brexit crash will make all of you poorer – be warned”, what he really meant is “it will make me poorer.” And yes, George, the people were warned which is why they voted the way they did.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-25/real-brexit-catastrophe-worlds-400-richest-people-lose-127-billion

  16. [WeWantPaul

    lol, stop tripping out. Go read the article.]

    That is straight from the top of the article I was laughing so hard I couldn’t read on … you mean it gets funnier?

  17. WeWantPaul
    [If there isn’t there is a problem with how representative our representatives are]

    I dont think the number are there. I also support SSM as a Liberal, haha. Who would have thought, a Liberal who wants people to live their life as they would chose. But I digress. I see the plebiscite as the only way for many years of getting SSM legal. I think the religious Libs see that clearly as well. Hence the moves to make the vote nonbinding and the gutless Turncoat is helping them.

  18. The stability disconnect is so intriguing. For whatever reason the LNP seem happy to use the stability card as a strength and feel it resonates in the electorate, and it probably does. However most recent comparisons between the two parties on a range of angles in regard to stability unanimously favour the ALP:

    Leader of the party (Shorten v Abbott/Turnbull)
    Agreement of Policy (SSM)
    Consistency of Policy (Gonski/NG v GST/State Tax/Company Tax)
    Financial Instability (GFC)

  19. [I’m told, my philosophical position as a ‘legal positivist’ (the law is what it is – it’s for others to say whether it’s good or bad law).]

    Well all the changes seem to be good, for the employees to ensure their workplace safety, for the volunteers (because to the extent they share the same workplace they will be safer) and for the public. I can see perhaps a couple of wounded volunteer egos, and a massive political beatup. There is also a natural tension between professionals and volunteers in the same organisation, and the idea of an ‘integrated’ service was always a little fanciful. But as I say ego and politics is a pathetic overlay to refute / reject a employer / employee agreement. I thought crazy right wing people liked employee / employer agreements, oh wait that is only when the employees are getting screwed and it matters less if they are killed at work.

  20. [That is straight from the top of the article I was laughing so hard I couldn’t read on]

    WeWantPaul

    I think it’s a fair article. There is many good things that the Union wants, safety being one of them. I do not oppose any of those measures unless it affects the Volunteer and then think safety can be improved and the volunteer lose no status. The UFU is after a power grab of a volunteer organisation, nothing more or less.

  21. On stability. Remember that was the argument Cameron went with. He had the full backing of the IMF The Euro Ministers etc. All were seen by voters as being elite.

    Every time the LNP talk stability you must trust us they turn more voters against them.

    Labor will suffer a little from this but not in 2pp terms as the public sees them defending health services not cutting it like Cameron in the UK. Health was the lie the UKIP used to get the Brexit votes.
    On health the public trusts Labor. Says it all.

  22. [And how could we forget a more recent journo turned MP and WA Premier Alan Carpenter]

    We are trying bloody hard to forget the useless clown.

  23. CTar1 + TPOF
    Journalism would be an excellent training ground for future pollies, all that spin, propagandising and doing the bidding of your backers.
    TPOF agree re Carr. He fiddled while NSW Labor burned.

  24. Guytaur
    Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 10:04 am
    Good Morning

    Insiders was a lot less LNP friendly this morning. The Brexit result has woken the gallery up

    I saw it the same way. Dare I say I even enjoyed Fran. Also Stuchbury’s advocacy is ineffectual, so it was almost like there was no L-NP voice (for a change).

  25. Confessions
    Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 9:53 am
    Derryn Hinch has never voted. Seriously?

    Yes, seriously Fess – and he boasts about it.

  26. [The UFU is after a power grab of a volunteer organisation, nothing more or less.]
    That doesn’t flow from the article at all, having read my way through, and to be fair to the author the funniness isn’t in their writing or legal positivist stance it comes as soon as you put a health and safety and community safety filter on. A filter they are deliberately excluding.

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