Galaxy: 50-50

Yet another poll recording nothing in it on two-party preferred, this time with the novelty factor of a follow-up question probing how the Coalition might have gone if Tony Abbott had been kept as leader.

The Sunday News Corp papers have a national federal poll from Galaxy, although their websites are being a little coy about the fact. The poll shows two-party preferred at 50-50, which is all I can tell you about voting intention at this stage, because I’m not seeing any primary votes, sample sizes or field work dates. (UPDATE: Primary votes here – Coalition 42%, Labor 35% and Greens 11%). The report does relate that a follow-up question found Labor would lead 53-47 if Tony Abbott was still Liberal leader; that 38% believe Labor’s claim that a Coalition government would privatise Medicare, compared with 45% who don’t; and that 30% believe Malcolm Turnbull’s claim that Labor’s negative gearing reforms would drive down house prices, compared with 40% who don’t. More to follow on that at a later time.

In other news, today’s Fairfax papers have a report canvassing party insiders’ views on the state of the horse race:

• A Nationals source is quoted saying the party is “pretty nervous” about Rob Oakeshott’s challenge to Luke Hartsuyker in Cowper, and “fearful of losing Page”, where Labor’s Janelle Saffin seeks to recover the seat she lost to Kevin Hogan in 2013. However, its polling is also said to show Barnaby Joyce leading Tony Windsor in New England.

• Labor is said to be confident about the outer Sydney seat of Macarthur, but less so about other Sydney marginals including Lindsay and Banks.

• In Central Queensland, Capricornia and Flynn are rated as “likely Labor gains”, while Nationals MP George Christensen is “precarious” in Dawson.

• In Victoria, Corangamite is said to be the only Liberal-held seat Labor is now targeting, suggesting it is not hopeful about the Melbourne seats of Dunkley, Deakin and La Trobe. The Labor-versus-Greens contest in Batman is rated as lineball, but Labor is thought unlikely to lose its vulnerable Melbourne seats of Chisholm and Bruce to the Liberals. Liberal candidate Chris Jermyn’s poor performance is thought likely to save Labor from the Country Fire Authority backlash in McEwen, but the controversy is giving the Liberals an “outside chance” in Bendigo.

Further:

• David Crowe of The Australian reports Jacqui Lambie is “performing so strongly in Tasmania that major party observers expect her to win and perhaps gain enough votes to elect her running mate, Devonport mayor Steve Martin”. The report also suggests the Nick Xenophon Team could potentially win seats in Victoria and Western Australia, and suggests Derryn Hinch, Bob Day and David Leyonhjelm are stronger prospects than Pauline Hanson and Glenn Lazarus, without writing either off (unlike Ricky Muir and John Madigan, who don’t rate a mention).

• Sarah Elks of The Australian reports on Labor efforts to shore up Terri Butler, its member for the inner southern Brisbane seat of Griffith, citing Liberal National Party insiders who say “the ALP has been panicked into throwing money at a seat it is no danger of losing”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

998 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50”

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  2. DAN – Interesting article. Maybe the poms, like the greeks, will have a referendum and then ignore it.

  5. Don:

    I’m well aware of the fact I live in one of the most beautiful parts of the country, hence my desire to keep it as such 😀

  6. [ Damn right. But they never came anywhere near his rockpool. ]
    A cloud passing over the rockpool would be enough

  7. Swamprat
    ah.
    One implication, IMO, is that the Republic in Australia is a lot closer as a result of Brexit. My reasons:
    A lot of European aussies can sort of put up with the queen while the UK is European as well as English.
    Distintegration begets disintegration.
    A lot of English Australians have been terribly dudded by the UK. They are big losers in terms of European access. Those ties that bind are fraying as well, then.

  8. JamieRoss7: Huge. Nicola Sturgeon on Sunday Politics Scotland says she would consider asking the Scottish parliament to block Brexit.

  11. Bridget O’Flynn
    7m7 minutes ago
    Bridget O’Flynn ‏@BridgetOFlynn
    Chris Kenny says tonight’s #Newspoll will show ‘a lift in the primary vote for the Coalition.’
    #ausvotes
    #thisislabor
    #wecan

  13. victoria

    I wonder how much. If its small MOE its more grain of salt unknown with new polling methods in a too close to call election.

  16. [J K
    Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 8:47 pm
    Chris Kenny on Viewpoint: “after a long campaign this election is now falling in to place nicely for the Government”. Reckon he’s seen Newspoll?]

    I can’t copy this full tweet with image but it’s from @SkyNews Aust:

    LANG☆HARRIS ‏@69ACES 31m31 minutes ago
    @SkyNewsAust @chriskkenny i think you are in for a big shock Chris the swing is on. Australia Voters Change ☆CC☆]

    and has a picture of “Age” poster saying “VOTERS LOSING FAITH IN TURNBULL – EXCLUSIVE POLL”

  17. JK
    Chris Kenny on Viewpoint: “after a long campaign this election is now falling in to place nicely for the Government”. Reckon he’s seen Newspoll?

    I suspect Kenny was simply referring to Brexit shifting the message back to stability and the economy. If Newspoll had been positive for the Libs I suspect he would have been yelling about a “massive swing back to the government”.

  19. phoenixgreen @ #860 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 9:10 pm

    Interestingly, I am also seeing PUP tv ads here in Tasmania.

    I’ve seen one on ABC because they have a public ad entitlement from their 2013 vote, which is kind of funny when they’re barely even running for the Reps this time around. I’ve also seen glossy fliers headed “A MESSAGE FROM KEVIN MORGAN” which I reckon had a lot of Tassie voters going “who?” since barely a peep’s been heard from the poor guy since he failed to get up in Braddon at the state election.

    Anyway Malcolm Farnsworth has tweeted that Chris Kenny has said the Coalition primary is up in Newspoll. I’m not sure Kenny would have gone so far out with his projections if it was only up a point so maybe it is more than that.

  22. Guytaur
    Nicola Sturgeon on Sunday Politics Scotland says she would consider asking the Scottish parliament to block Brexit.

    Jaysus! Scotland throwing the gauntlet down on England!

  23. boerwar @ #801 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 8:32 pm

    …the flow of goods and services have been pretty well entirely deregulated

    This bit is not right. This is the entire point of the EU customs union. It is the power to admit/exclude products (and workers) from its markets that keeps the EU economies together. This power enables accumulation (saving) inside the EU and drives dis-accumulation (borrowing) outside it. It is the scale and depth of the EU market that ensure it is better to be inside than outside its boundaries.

  25. TimGclaw: @BBCBreaking @BBCNews section 29 of the Scotland Act 1998 is new “stone of destiny” as withdrawal requires Scotland’s Parliament’s consent

  27. Peter Martin –

    Labor believes it’s treating us like adults. Fully-developed human beings would have no problem with a set of policies that made the budget deficit worse over the short term while setting it up for the long-term. That’s what Labor’s panel of experts (two of whom have worked for the Coalition) say the policies will do.

    But because we’re not all as rational as those experts, Labor is opening itself up to an enormous scare campaign.

    …Somewhat easier to sell will be its decision to limit the tax deduction for the cost of managing tax affairs to $5000. Most people only claim a fraction of that. But earlier this year Fairfax Media revealed that a small number of millionaires, 27, manage to pay no tax while claiming a combined $46.7 million for the cost of managing tax affairs.

    They’d have to get cheaper advice.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/election-2016-labors-costings-open-it-up-to-a-scare-campaign-20160626-gpsbia.html#ixzz4CgPm5DFX

  28. Sturgeon would be mad to block Brexit… it will lead to Scots independence and would give Scotland valuable role as entry to EU for business.

    It would come down to a tussle of Parliaments. Westminster believes it rules the world!!!!

  29. think Bluey has just been employed by the ABC or Murdoch and is thinking of negative gearing some of the surplus income

  30. So media got it wrong for Brexit to succeed it needed to have majority vote in England and Scotland not sure about other jurisdictions.

  31. Confessions
    #793 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 8:24 pm
    Briefly:

    Whatever works for spreading the wealthy ignorant Pommy migrants around so they don’t all cluster in the one place would be good. But with any luck they’ll stay in their own insular nation and direct their efforts to rebuilding their own country instead of fleeing to a new country and proceeding to whinge about it once they land there.

    Yes, any more insular and they would have offshore processing of “illegal” asylum seekers.

    Pot.

    Kettle.

    Black.

    Tom.

  32. Confessions

    What really puts the brakes on English economic refugees are the rules.

    It’s not as simple as heading down to Australia House with your 10 quid like it used to be .

    Which is a good thing in my view

  33. sohar @ #814 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 8:41 pm

    Does that mean bonus points, or is Bluey on the turps, Boerwar?

    Bluey has always been a (not so) secret Tory supporter.

    Now that I come to think of it, has anyone seen Bluey and Richard di Natalie in the same room at the same time? Hmmm.

    I’m going to refer to him in future as Greeny, the green ringed octopus.

  34. Re my earlier post:
    [I can’t copy this full tweet with image but it’s from @SkyNews Aust:
    LANG☆HARRIS ‏@69ACES 31m31 minutes ago
    @SkyNewsAust @chriskkenny i think you are in for a big shock Chris the swing is on. Australia Voters Change ☆CC☆
    and has a picture of “Age” poster saying “VOTERS LOSING FAITH IN TURNBULL – EXCLUSIVE POLL”]

    Unfortunately the Age poster is dated 21 May 2016 in tiny type at the bottom.

  35. norwester @ #713 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 7:32 pm

    The French will no doubt be happy to have the Scots join the EU.
    The Auld Alliance.

    I do recall a long night in a Paris pub while travelling with a Scottish friend. No-one spoke english but once it was established we were from Écosse and Australie there were free drinks and a warm shared contempt for Angleterre.

  36. So it turns out the Labour MPs that don’t support Corbyn might not be able to kick him out of the leadership. So they are planning on electing their own leader and shadow cabinet and just ignore Corbyn. This is hilarious, no one really thought Brexit would happen now they are running around like headless chickens without a clue what to do.

  39. So, far, four blairites out of thirty members of the Labor shadow cabinet have resigned. Hardly a revolution

  40. swamprat @ #878 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 9:18 pm

    Sturgeon would be mad to block Brexit… it will lead to Scots independence and would give Scotland valuable role as entry to EU for business.
    It would come down to a tussle of Parliaments. Westminster believes it rules the world!!!!

    Well…she could offer the English a deal…facilitate Scottish Independence and EU entry alongside English withdrawal from the EU. Very smart, imo. There would be an orderly process in which Scotland would hold a strong hand. It would further cement her party as the legitimate governing authority in Scotland.

  41. swamprat @ #878 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 9:18 pm

    Sturgeon would be mad to block Brexit… it will lead to Scots independence and would give Scotland valuable role as entry to EU for business.
    It would come down to a tussle of Parliaments. Westminster believes it rules the world!!!!

    She probably only wants to block until they get a referendum up to get independence and it would be in their interest to stay in the EU if they possibly could until they become independent. It also could be used as a sort of blackmail, let us go or you are staying in the EU.

  44. briefly

    Yes Sturgeon running rings around the Westminster power elites trying to delay a Scottish Indy Referendum

  45. Ken Tsang‏ @jxeeno
    The irony of NBN’s satellite numbers: remember when #NBN criticised former management overstating premises passed?

  48. [ maybe the opponents to Brexit could stop any amendments to the Scotland Act. ]
    Not if they are the type of person who doesn’t vote

  49. Have to think the rebel Labour shadow Cabinet people may have got their timing wrong. With so much uncertainty attempting a quick coup sounds a very risky business. No doubt we will hear condemnation from the “No splitters”.

  50. I just read s 29… does not seem to be relevant at all…. but I am not a lawyer!!

    Sturgeon is a formidable politician and a StatesWoman!!!

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