Galaxy: 50-50

Yet another poll recording nothing in it on two-party preferred, this time with the novelty factor of a follow-up question probing how the Coalition might have gone if Tony Abbott had been kept as leader.

The Sunday News Corp papers have a national federal poll from Galaxy, although their websites are being a little coy about the fact. The poll shows two-party preferred at 50-50, which is all I can tell you about voting intention at this stage, because I’m not seeing any primary votes, sample sizes or field work dates. (UPDATE: Primary votes here – Coalition 42%, Labor 35% and Greens 11%). The report does relate that a follow-up question found Labor would lead 53-47 if Tony Abbott was still Liberal leader; that 38% believe Labor’s claim that a Coalition government would privatise Medicare, compared with 45% who don’t; and that 30% believe Malcolm Turnbull’s claim that Labor’s negative gearing reforms would drive down house prices, compared with 40% who don’t. More to follow on that at a later time.

In other news, today’s Fairfax papers have a report canvassing party insiders’ views on the state of the horse race:

• A Nationals source is quoted saying the party is “pretty nervous” about Rob Oakeshott’s challenge to Luke Hartsuyker in Cowper, and “fearful of losing Page”, where Labor’s Janelle Saffin seeks to recover the seat she lost to Kevin Hogan in 2013. However, its polling is also said to show Barnaby Joyce leading Tony Windsor in New England.

• Labor is said to be confident about the outer Sydney seat of Macarthur, but less so about other Sydney marginals including Lindsay and Banks.

• In Central Queensland, Capricornia and Flynn are rated as “likely Labor gains”, while Nationals MP George Christensen is “precarious” in Dawson.

• In Victoria, Corangamite is said to be the only Liberal-held seat Labor is now targeting, suggesting it is not hopeful about the Melbourne seats of Dunkley, Deakin and La Trobe. The Labor-versus-Greens contest in Batman is rated as lineball, but Labor is thought unlikely to lose its vulnerable Melbourne seats of Chisholm and Bruce to the Liberals. Liberal candidate Chris Jermyn’s poor performance is thought likely to save Labor from the Country Fire Authority backlash in McEwen, but the controversy is giving the Liberals an “outside chance” in Bendigo.

Further:

• David Crowe of The Australian reports Jacqui Lambie is “performing so strongly in Tasmania that major party observers expect her to win and perhaps gain enough votes to elect her running mate, Devonport mayor Steve Martin”. The report also suggests the Nick Xenophon Team could potentially win seats in Victoria and Western Australia, and suggests Derryn Hinch, Bob Day and David Leyonhjelm are stronger prospects than Pauline Hanson and Glenn Lazarus, without writing either off (unlike Ricky Muir and John Madigan, who don’t rate a mention).

• Sarah Elks of The Australian reports on Labor efforts to shore up Terri Butler, its member for the inner southern Brisbane seat of Griffith, citing Liberal National Party insiders who say “the ALP has been panicked into throwing money at a seat it is no danger of losing”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

998 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50”

Comments Page 15 of 20
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  1. Wakefield,

    “Why the DU would oppose EU membership is quite a mystery.”

    For the Democratic (sic) Unionists in “Ulster”, there are too many “Taigs” (Catholics) in the EU.

    They are still fighting the Thirty Years War.

  2. monica lynagh @ #700 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 7:21 pm

    fess,
    that’s so very funny.
    Like briefly and bemused report, it’s really interesting speaking with people in the electorate.
    Also the lovely elderly chap who helped with the stand today is a delightful man with lots of stories from his life.
    I’m still sticking with my prediction that we’ll win.

    Which seat, ML?

  4. confessions @ #693 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 7:12 pm

    Wakefield:
    I’ve seen that Scotland has declared an intent to revisit their ties to Britain with what looks like being another referendum.
    Is it just me who thinks this whole thing is nothing short of messy?

    I didn’t closely follow the Scottish independence referendum but I recall one of the major issues was the uncertainty of independent Scotland’s relationship with the EU – it was clear that remaining part of the EU under the UK umbrella was a big consideration driving the ‘no’ vote.

  5. acerbic conehead @ #701 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 7:21 pm

    Wakefield,
    “Why the DU would oppose EU membership is quite a mystery.”
    For the Democratic (sic) Unionists in “Ulster”, there are too many “Taigs” (Catholics) in the EU.
    They are still fighting the Thirty Years War.

    They are Tory auxiliaries.

  7. If the libs argue that Labor is not going to save “quite” as much in the first four years, that plays into Labor’s hands. They really need uncosted “black holes” to make an impact.

  8. The law of unintended consequences can be a real… so & so, as David Cameron is finding out. His decision to hold a plebiscite to paper over difficulties within his own party and kick the can down the road until after the next election.

    So far, they include:
    – Britain out of the EU, probably by 2020, most likely for decades, if not forever
    – the end of his Prime Ministership
    – restarting Scotland’s campaign for independence
    – market chaos – hopefully shortlived
    Down the track, they might include:
    – new Labour leadership
    – major economic upheaval
    – an early election
    – ructions in the EU
    – attempts to capitalise by the Australian Government facing a difficult election
    Possibilities include:
    – recession
    -Tories losing Government
    – reigniting the ‘troubles’ in Ireland
    – SCEXIT – breakup of the UK
    Conceivably:
    – More EU exits
    – Breakup of EU, consequences of this…
    – maybe impacts on US election

  9. Phoenix Green

    So you meant to write “Danby’s preferences to Liberals…” – as he was acting against the wishes of his party. The actual Labor How To Votes have Greens ahead of the Liberals.

  10. The $16.7b extra in Labor deficits over the forward estimates – that is extra over Morrison’s Budget based on dodgy zombie assumptions – appears to be a big number. $16.7 BILLION (emphasis mine)

    Now just listen to how Chris Uhlmann and pals say ‘billion’, it’s like they are rold to EMPHASISE THE BILLION so it sounds bigger.

    The Australian exonomy has a GDP of around $1.6 Trillion dollars, 1.6 billion is a whole 1% of this. So a deficit of an extra 1%? Or 16.7 BILLION.

  11. First Minister of Scotland makes an excellent point…..

    Jamie Ross
    56m56 minutes ago
    Jamie Ross ‏@JamieRoss7
    Nicola Sturgeon: “This is not going to be a rerun on the 2014 referendum. The UK Scotland voted to stay in doesn’t exist anymore.”

  12. tpof @ #704 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 7:23 pm

    confessions @ #693 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 7:12 pm

    Wakefield:
    I’ve seen that Scotland has declared an intent to revisit their ties to Britain with what looks like being another referendum.
    Is it just me who thinks this whole thing is nothing short of messy?

    I didn’t closely follow the Scottish independence referendum but I recall one of the major issues was the uncertainty of independent Scotland’s relationship with the EU – it was clear that remaining part of the EU under the UK umbrella was a big consideration driving the ‘no’ vote.

    The Scots now have no reason at all to remain in the UK. Access to the markets of the EU, being far larger than the markets of England, and the institutional support of the EU bureaucracy and financial system, make the case for independence within the EU insuperable. Unless the English somehow halt the exit process, the Scots should move to accomplish this.

  15. it was clear that remaining part of the EU under the UK umbrella was a big consideration driving the ‘no’ vote.

    The statement from the Minister for Scotland said this, albeit in a more direct way, ie ‘the UK we voted to stay connected to doesn’t exist anymore’ or wtte.

  17. It’s clear the Tories cannot avert Brexit. Only Labour have the potential capacity to do this. They should bend everything to that purpose.

  19. zoomster @ #709 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 7:28 pm

    Phoenix Green
    So you meant to write “Danby’s preferences to Liberals…” – as he was acting against the wishes of his party. The actual Labor How To Votes have Greens ahead of the Liberals.

    So Danby isn’t a Labor candidate? Some kind of a freelancer?

  20. Peter Hendy has coped a real pasting over the last few weeks. Eden-Monaro (the bell weather) is a guaranteed win for Labor in my book. Will it remain the bell weather seat? Don’t know. Hendy is the vanishing man and a shocking candidate to have in a marginal seat.

  23. briefly @ 702.
    Ballarat. Catherine is a very strong local candidate, well liked and respected even by the Libs. She’s in no danger, IMO.
    Gotta go for now, so catch you later.

  29. It’s clear the Tories cannot avert Brexit

    Nobody can avert it. The decision has been made by the people. Within a few years the process of implementing the people’s decision will be completed.

  30. Labor costngs were always going to receive the coverage that was provided by most of the news bulletins tonight.

    It is now up to labor to stand up and argue its case. To my way of thinking by releasing them with one week to go shows a deal of confidence from labor that they can in fact argue their case.

    Labor has not once squibbed it over the last three years with policy announcements and today is another example.

    Chris Bowen has been very impressive over the last two years and I have a strong belief he and Tony Burke will strongly argue the case this time.

    Labor has been spot on this campaign and I fail to see how they would not have a plan in place to prosecute this argument.

    Cheers.

  31. rummel @ #722 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 7:38 pm

    The Scots now have no reason at all to remain in the UK.

    err… who will pay for all the pensions?

    It certainly won’t be the English, who are about to see themselves stripped of their capital, markets, jobs, monetary and financial strength, political stability and both their constitutional and territorial integrity.

  34. doyley @ #730 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 7:41 pm

    Labor costngs were always going to receive the coverage that was provided by most of the news bulletins tonight.
    It is now up to labor to stand up and argue its case. To my way of thinking by releasing them with one week to go shows a deal of confidence from labor that they can in fact argue their case.
    Labor has not once squibbed it over the last three years with policy announcements and today is another example.
    Chris Bowen has been very impressive over the last two years and I have a strong belief he and Tony Burke will strongly argue the case this time.
    Labor has been spot on this campaign and I fail to see how they would not have a plan in place to prosecute this argument.
    Cheers.

    Labor are taking a risk – the risk involved in not telling people what they think they want to hear. It may work badly for Labor. It may simply be subsumed as background noise. Numbers usually are. They are merely abstractions.

  35. Rummel:

    For a sitting MP in a marginal swinging seat like Eden-Monaro, Hendy has been remarkably invisible. Even on this side of the country we all saw Mike Kelly in a range of formats when Labor was in govt: QT noddy, junior minister, on social media etc. But Hendy has been invisible. Is he that poor of a local member that Team Abbott and now Team Turnbull can’t risk elevating his public profile?

  36. diogenes @ #733 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 7:46 pm

    bemused
    Danbys HTV cards have the Greens ahead of Libs.

    The official ALP card has preferences to the Greens ahead of the Libs in all seats.
    Danby appears to have gone rogue and produced an unknown quantity of his own HTVs which do otherwise.
    I am unimpressed with his effort.

  38. Not sure if already posted…..?

    In the speech announcing his resignation, David Cameron included a list of the things he was proud to have done as prime minister. I suspect you glazed over at that point. So will future biographers of his premiership. He has just become one of those leaders who will be remembered for a single enormous mistake. Neville Chamberlain had achievements to his name before appeasement. There was more to Anthony Eden than the Suez debacle. Lord North had a career before he lost America. But each of those premiers is defined by their one towering disaster. So it will be with David Cameron, the prime minister who accidentally ruptured more than four decades of his country’s economic, security and foreign policy by losing the referendum on Europe. That will be the inscription etched deep on his tombstone.

  42. Who’ll pay for the pensions?

    Scotland will have the full taxing powers of a Sovereign nation – income tax, VAT and so forth. They would have full revenues from North Sea oil. They’ll keep paying their pensions, like Estonia, Slovokia and Croatia. The pensions will be the more secure because he Scots will have unshackled themslves from an England hopefully stricken by the Thatcherite curse.

  44. diogenes @ #733 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 7:46 pm

    bemused
    Danbys HTV cards have the Greens ahead of Libs.

    He’s very shrewd. His prefs are going to the Gs but he’s managed to let everyone know he opposes them. G-negative/Lib-positive voters will be inclined to support him. It’s a great way to counter and undermine G-claims of intended alliances with Labor.

    There are many more G-negative than G-positive voters. He’s spoken very effectively to the majority.

  45. Labour should oppose it with all they have.

    If Blairites campaign to overturn the people’s clearly expressed will regarding the EU, they will guarantee themselves fewer seats and less power after the next election.

  46. Dio
    ‘Danbys HTV cards have the Greens ahead of Libs’
    What? After all the vicious things the Greens said about Danby?
    John MacEnroe would have known exactly what to say about this.

  47. briefly @ #734 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 7:47 pm

    doyley @ #730 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 7:41 pm

    Labor costngs were always going to receive the coverage that was provided by most of the news bulletins tonight.
    It is now up to labor to stand up and argue its case. To my way of thinking by releasing them with one week to go shows a deal of confidence from labor that they can in fact argue their case.
    Labor has not once squibbed it over the last three years with policy announcements and today is another example.
    Chris Bowen has been very impressive over the last two years and I have a strong belief he and Tony Burke will strongly argue the case this time.
    Labor has been spot on this campaign and I fail to see how they would not have a plan in place to prosecute this argument.
    Cheers.

    Labor are taking a risk – the risk involved in not telling people what they think they want to hear. It may work badly for Labor. It may simply be subsumed as background noise. Numbers usually are. They are merely abstractions.

    It is worth watching the whole costings release by Bowen and Burke.
    They several times emphasised that the Lib deficit figures are the ones the Libs are using and rely on the ‘zombie’ savings of the 2014 budget which will never be passed.

    I think this point will get hammered over the next few days and I expect any of the economics journalists with any credibility to pick it up and point out what it means.

  48. Confessions
    [Is he that poor of a local member that Team Abbott and now Team Turnbull can’t risk elevating his public profile?]

    I don’t know? After 8 weeks of this election, plus last election, and a few years in Government I have now idea who he is.

  49. It certainly won’t be the English, who are about to see themselves stripped of their capital, markets, jobs, monetary and financial strength, political stability and both their constitutional and territorial integrity.

    This is highly likely politically incorrect, but if the Brexit vote and tanking pound value means we see less whingeing Poms migrating here, that will be a good thing IMO. I was in Bunbury and Mandurah not that long ago and honestly, it felt like every second person I met had a British accent and were a relatively recent arrival to Australia. And every single one of them whinged about boats and muslims and how Australia had “gone to the dogs”.

    Would Australia really be worse off if these people instead chose to stay in the Old Country? I think not.

  50. I see that the usual suspects have run their SYRIZAN ruler over the UK and have come up with exactly the wrong conclusions. Again.
    The Greens genuinely believe that the Tories will now begin to care and share with the impoverished Under Class.
    Pure Piffle.
    This belongs to the same mass delusion that Boris is (a) no a member of the elite and (b) not really a politician.

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