Galaxy: 50-50

Yet another poll recording nothing in it on two-party preferred, this time with the novelty factor of a follow-up question probing how the Coalition might have gone if Tony Abbott had been kept as leader.

The Sunday News Corp papers have a national federal poll from Galaxy, although their websites are being a little coy about the fact. The poll shows two-party preferred at 50-50, which is all I can tell you about voting intention at this stage, because I’m not seeing any primary votes, sample sizes or field work dates. (UPDATE: Primary votes here – Coalition 42%, Labor 35% and Greens 11%). The report does relate that a follow-up question found Labor would lead 53-47 if Tony Abbott was still Liberal leader; that 38% believe Labor’s claim that a Coalition government would privatise Medicare, compared with 45% who don’t; and that 30% believe Malcolm Turnbull’s claim that Labor’s negative gearing reforms would drive down house prices, compared with 40% who don’t. More to follow on that at a later time.

In other news, today’s Fairfax papers have a report canvassing party insiders’ views on the state of the horse race:

• A Nationals source is quoted saying the party is “pretty nervous” about Rob Oakeshott’s challenge to Luke Hartsuyker in Cowper, and “fearful of losing Page”, where Labor’s Janelle Saffin seeks to recover the seat she lost to Kevin Hogan in 2013. However, its polling is also said to show Barnaby Joyce leading Tony Windsor in New England.

• Labor is said to be confident about the outer Sydney seat of Macarthur, but less so about other Sydney marginals including Lindsay and Banks.

• In Central Queensland, Capricornia and Flynn are rated as “likely Labor gains”, while Nationals MP George Christensen is “precarious” in Dawson.

• In Victoria, Corangamite is said to be the only Liberal-held seat Labor is now targeting, suggesting it is not hopeful about the Melbourne seats of Dunkley, Deakin and La Trobe. The Labor-versus-Greens contest in Batman is rated as lineball, but Labor is thought unlikely to lose its vulnerable Melbourne seats of Chisholm and Bruce to the Liberals. Liberal candidate Chris Jermyn’s poor performance is thought likely to save Labor from the Country Fire Authority backlash in McEwen, but the controversy is giving the Liberals an “outside chance” in Bendigo.

Further:

• David Crowe of The Australian reports Jacqui Lambie is “performing so strongly in Tasmania that major party observers expect her to win and perhaps gain enough votes to elect her running mate, Devonport mayor Steve Martin”. The report also suggests the Nick Xenophon Team could potentially win seats in Victoria and Western Australia, and suggests Derryn Hinch, Bob Day and David Leyonhjelm are stronger prospects than Pauline Hanson and Glenn Lazarus, without writing either off (unlike Ricky Muir and John Madigan, who don’t rate a mention).

• Sarah Elks of The Australian reports on Labor efforts to shore up Terri Butler, its member for the inner southern Brisbane seat of Griffith, citing Liberal National Party insiders who say “the ALP has been panicked into throwing money at a seat it is no danger of losing”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

998 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50”

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  1. Bemused ‘It is worth watching the whole costings release by Bowen and Burke.
    They several times emphasised that the Lib deficit figures are the ones the Libs are using and rely on the ‘zombie’ savings of the 2014 budget which will never be passed.’

    Surely, if the Libs get a majority in both houses, they could pass the zombie measures.

  2. Nicola Stgurgeon said “Indeed, I want to take the opportunity this morning to speak directly to citizens of other EU countries living here in Scotland – you remain welcome here, Scotland is your home and your contribution is valued.”

    A new Referendum Bill would be supported in Holyrood by the SNP and Scottish Greens, giving sufficient backing to allow it to be passed in the event of opposition from the Tories, Labour and the Liberal Democrats. (Note: the Scottish Government does not accept that future referrendums (a) need Westminster Parliament’s approval).

    The Labour Party leader (Scottish subsidiary) Kezia Dugdale reinforced its absolute irrelevance, by stating “Labour’s manifesto ruled out a second referendum in the lifetime of this Parliament – we won’t be changing our minds any time soon.”

    http://www.thenational.scot/news/nicola-sturgeon-states-the-snps-case-for-indyref2-after-shock-of-brexit.19244

  3. Dio
    ‘Danbys HTV cards have the Greens ahead of Libs’
    What? After all the vicious things the Greens said about Danby?

    Greens spin invariably shown up for the hollowness it is? Surely not Boerwar!

  6. In 2014, when the Scottish had their Independence referendum, my stance was neutral – I thought it a matter for the Scottish people, not me.

    However, I now think they should get out while they can.

  8. Rummel:

    Interesting. If you live in his electorate yet have no idea who he is, then that can’t be good for him. Rick Wilson is not an MP who would set the world on fire with his grand visions, but he at least knows how to get himself out there and seen and reported in local media. And his electorate is vastly larger than that of Hendy’s.

    Dare I say it, but Hendy is nothing more than a free-loading hack looking to shore up a taxpayer-funded career in parliament. Thankfully he’s in a marginal seat which means if he can’t get his ass in gear he risks losing that very job.

  10. peebee @ #751 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 7:55 pm

    Bemused ‘It is worth watching the whole costings release by Bowen and Burke.
    They several times emphasised that the Lib deficit figures are the ones the Libs are using and rely on the ‘zombie’ savings of the 2014 budget which will never be passed.’
    Surely, if the Libs get a majority in both houses, they could pass the zombie measures.

    Yeah, right. That’s really going to happen isn’t it?

  11. Don it was much stroger than the ANZUS rubbish:

    “The terms of the treaty stipulated that if either country was attacked by England, the other country would invade English territory, as happened at the Battle of Flodden, 1513. The alliance played an important role in conflicts between both countries and England, such as the Wars of Scottish Independence, the Hundred Years’ War, the War of the League of Cambrai and the Rough Wooing.”

  13. interesting…….

    Laura Kuenssberg
    14m14 minutes ago
    Laura Kuenssberg ‏@bbclaurak
    Lab MPs now suggesting Tom Watson could take over as interim leader with no election – he is on a train back from Glastonbury…

  14. Is there a Newspoll due out tonight? If so, the lack of any hint from Chris Kenny or a “Newspoll wow” from PvO makes me think it’s either still line-ball or moved in Labor’s favour.

  15. I thought that the ad blackout applied only to radio and TV, not newspapers. Does anyone know how it applies to online newspapers and TV stations online such as Ninemsn or Yahoo7?

  17. There was a piece on Eden Monaro a month or so ago on TV. The owner of the newsagent directly over the road to Hendy’s office claimed to never have seen him in the last 3 years.

  19. rummel @ #722 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 7:38 pm

    The Scots now have no reason at all to remain in the UK.

    err… who will pay for all the pensions?

    Why is that a problem?

    I spent three years, mid 1966 to mid 1969 in Canada, a great time to be there, Pierre Trudeau was PM, as a landed immigrant, working as a teacher, and still draw a Canadian pension. I could not apply for an Australian pension until I had completed the paperwork for the Canadian pension. Circa $1200 AUD pa is worth having.

    The Scot situation would be no different.

    My understanding is that lots of British immigrants here draw a Brit pension, as do those living in Spain or wherever.

    It is not an issue.

  21. [Sohar
    Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 8:05 pm
    “The Scots threaten independence almost as much as they bath”, which is a lot more often than the English.]
    lol

  22. victoria @ #738 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 7:49 pm

    Not sure if already posted…..?
    In the speech announcing his resignation, David Cameron included a list of the things he was proud to have done as prime minister. I suspect you glazed over at that point. So will future biographers of his premiership. He has just become one of those leaders who will be remembered for a single enormous mistake. Neville Chamberlain had achievements to his name before appeasement. There was more to Anthony Eden than the Suez debacle. Lord North had a career before he lost America. But each of those premiers is defined by their one towering disaster. So it will be with David Cameron, the prime minister who accidentally ruptured more than four decades of his country’s economic, security and foreign policy by losing the referendum on Europe. That will be the inscription etched deep on his tombstone.

    Very well put.

  24. This is curious..

    “Dr Talbott, showed that France refused to accept Westminster’s abrogation of the Scottish side of the Auld Alliance in 1906, following the Entente Cordiale between Britain and France. By French law, a Scotsman born before 1907 still possesses the full rights and privileges of Franco-Scottish nationality.

    The 716-year-old citizenship and trading privileges enjoyed by Scots in France, she suggests, are possibly intact today.”

    http://www.manchester.ac.uk/discover/news/franco-scottish-alliance-against-england-one-of-longest-in-history/

    If such rights are intact today, maybe Scotland remains in the EU as Franco-Scots 🙂

  25. Any Victorians or specifically Higgins voters want to comment on this?

    Jarrod ‏@advocatesplodge 32m32 minutes ago
    Oh my. The whole of Melb just saw an ad on ch 9 for Jason Ball. Not the Greens in general, specifically for him.

    Jarrod ‏@advocatesplodge 25m25 minutes ago
    If the Greens don’t get close in Higgins, someone is spending a lot of money for nothing

  26. rummel @ #770 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 8:05 pm

    Where is Lizzy through all this? Surely she should be saying something as this was always beyond politics.

    I would expect she is quietly furious with Cameron for making the UK a joke amount nations.

    I think their future meetings will be be very formal and strained affairs.

  27. I would suggest the 50 billion in tax cuts for multinationals and the banks being unfunded would play some part in the labor narrative this coming week.

    Cheers.

  28. Bluey Bulletin No 91
    As expected Brexit has reset the agenda back to where the Coalition wants it: the economy. As expected Labor, for want of $16 billion, led with its deficit chin.
    METRONOME
    Bluey watched Corman on AM Agenda and can report that ‘Corman: This is a recording’ has not deviated a single word from woe to go. Remarkable. Bluey assumes that no-one listens to Corman. OTOH, Bluey noticed that Plibersek continues her maturing process but that Burke and Bowen have developed immensely during the past three years. Labor has an embarrassment of riches.

    Bluey watched both Insiders and AM Agenda and it did not improve his general opinion of the bipeds, at all.

    LEAN ON ME
    Out of Cabinet of around 22 Bluey knows of only two people who are in the same ministerial job after three years: Bishop and Hunt. And neither of them have the same ministerial responsibilities they had three years ago. The Party that has had two prime ministers, two treasurers, two finance ministers, three defence ministers, two health ministers, two communications ministers and two arts ministers in less than three years. The Party routinely backflips on massive policies. This Party promises ‘stability’. Bluey reckons that that it might make bipedal sense but that it would not fool an occie.
    Further, the Party that is being destabilised by the Raving Right during an election campaign is promising to be the Party of stability. Bluey reckons pull the other one
    The Party that promised to balance the books in a single year has tripled the deficit and doubled the Commonwealth debt and wants to give away $66 billion of borrowed money. This Party claims to be the better economic manager. Bluey reckons that that might fool bipeds. But it would not fool an occie.
    Bluey reckons surely the bipeds would not be THAT stupid?
    STUCH IN THE MUD
    Bluey notes that Stuchbury never ever changes his tune. What he says is 100% predictable. Meanwhile there is huge change all around Stuch. Result: the AFR is doomed.
    ISIS GIVES BRITS ‘V’ FOR VICTORY SIGN
    Bluey notes that Brexit is, above all, a victory for ISIS. Around 30,000 ME nutjobs chased off around 10 million human beings and the resulting sectarianism, xenophobia and craven fear destroys the UK.
    NIGGLERS
    Bluey notes that one issue to come up since Brexit has been the realization that hard borders with Scotland will require a rebuild of Hadrian’s Wall. Bluey reckons credit where credit is due and let’s call it Bam Bam’s Wall. It will be needed to stop asylum seekers from walking into England and Englanders from trying to seek asylum in Scotland. The other straw in the wind is that the mayor of Calais has said, well, the Jungle (a humungous camp of asylum seekers near Calais) is there because we have asylum seeker management arrangements with the UK. The arrangements have been killed by Brexit. WTTE, we may no longer make efforts to stop the inhabitants of the Jungle from trying to get into the UK. Bluey notes that on a good day on a fast boat it is about an hour the Sceptred Isle.

    HOW DREARY WAS MY VALLEY
    Here Peggy Lee channels Bluey’s take on the Turnbull Launch:
    http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=utube+is+that+all+there+is&view=detail&mid=EB80F210FC45BA5B8379EB80F210FC45BA5B8379&FORM=VIRE

    IF LOOKS COULD KILL
    Turnbull would have been vaporized during the Launch.

    FIVE CENTS WORTH
    Bluey reckons that Brexit shows that the Brits can’t run a storm in a tea cup. If Bluey sees a five cent coin on the beach, he picks it up. So he was impressed with the figure of $460,000,000,000. The Bank of England has announced a facility of $460 billion to ensure the financial system does not collapse with Brexit. Bluey assumes that the big words are intended to mean that if you go to the bank and withdraw your deposit, the money will be there. Bluey also assumes that it might have the same number in front of it but it will not buy as much as it did last week.
    TEAM TURNBULL
    Turnbull reckons that you can’t trust a Party that has the name of an individual in the name. Bluey reckons damn right.
    PENNY WISE, POUND FOOLISH
    Bluey guesses that the budget over forward estimates is around a trillion. Bluey decries Labor not bringing their deficits into line with the Coalition’s. A difference between forward estimates of $16 billion is piffling. That said, Bluey reckons the structural adjustments story does show that Labor gets economics better than Team Turnbull.
    Verdict for the day: Liberal
    Cumulative tally: Labor 57 Coalition 59

  34. Don
    There would be much sentiment in France that would derive immense pleasure from England being out of the EU and Scotland being in the EU.

  36. There was a bit of leaked table gossip that tended to show that Her Madge was a bit jack of the wo… er continentals.

  37. boerwar @ #784 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 8:16 pm

    Don
    There would be much sentiment in France that would derive immense pleasure from England being out of the EU and Scotland being in the EU.

    I would have thought that Northern Ireland would be a player in that game as well.

    We live in interesting times.

  38. Wall to wall Labor ads tonight on TV and not one from the LNP, last one I saw on telly was fake tradie.

  39. Boerwar:

    Please thank Bluey for his observations. Although I think he’s been rather kind to the Libs on this occasion. Esp as they’ve jumped 30 points on the last Bluey Bulletin.

  40. ISIS GIVES BRITS ‘V’ FOR VICTORY SIGN
    Bluey notes that Brexit is, above all, a victory for ISIS. Around 30,000 ME nutjobs chased off around 10 million human beings and the resulting sectarianism, xenophobia and craven fear destroys the UK.

    Yeah…pity about the long view and all that..

  41. One idea that might get legs is for Northern Ireland and Scotland to form a loose confederacy for the sole purpose of gaining EU membership.
    The connections go back a couple of thousand years.
    But there are some important disconnections that have been created for the past half millennium or so.

  42. boerwar @ #786 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 8:20 pm

    There was a bit of leaked table gossip that tended to show that Her Madge was a bit jack of the wo… er continentals.

    Her Madge is, like her country, becoming increasingly irrelevant.

    I’ve forgotten, why is she our head of state, again? Must be the gold coronation carriages. Makes such a spectacle, don’t you think?

  43. Briefly:

    Whatever works for spreading the wealthy ignorant Pommy migrants around so they don’t all cluster in the one place would be good. But with any luck they’ll stay in their own insular nation and direct their efforts to rebuilding their own country instead of fleeing to a new country and proceeding to whinge about it once they land there.

  44. boerwar @ #791 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 8:23 pm

    One idea that might get legs is for Northern Ireland and Scotland to form a loose confederacy for the sole purpose of gaining EU membership.
    The connections go back a couple of thousand years.
    But there are some important disconnections that have been created for the past half millennium or so.

    Possibly 8 legs.

  45. confessions @ #793 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 8:24 pm

    Briefly:
    Whatever works for spreading the wealthy ignorant Pommy migrants around so they don’t all cluster in the one place would be good. But with any luck they’ll stay in their own insular nation and direct their efforts to rebuilding their own country instead of fleeing to a new country and proceeding to whinge about it once they land there.

    Fess, southern WA is thick with the bastards.

  47. This will kick off the hysterics here:

    John McTernan, the former Tony Blair adviser who is on the far right of the Labour party, has just told BBC News that Jeremy Corbyn should go. Addressing the argument that Corbyn has a mandate from the members, he said: “He did not have any mandate to be utterly useless.”

    From the Guardian

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