Galaxy: 50-50

Yet another poll recording nothing in it on two-party preferred, this time with the novelty factor of a follow-up question probing how the Coalition might have gone if Tony Abbott had been kept as leader.

The Sunday News Corp papers have a national federal poll from Galaxy, although their websites are being a little coy about the fact. The poll shows two-party preferred at 50-50, which is all I can tell you about voting intention at this stage, because I’m not seeing any primary votes, sample sizes or field work dates. (UPDATE: Primary votes here – Coalition 42%, Labor 35% and Greens 11%). The report does relate that a follow-up question found Labor would lead 53-47 if Tony Abbott was still Liberal leader; that 38% believe Labor’s claim that a Coalition government would privatise Medicare, compared with 45% who don’t; and that 30% believe Malcolm Turnbull’s claim that Labor’s negative gearing reforms would drive down house prices, compared with 40% who don’t. More to follow on that at a later time.

In other news, today’s Fairfax papers have a report canvassing party insiders’ views on the state of the horse race:

• A Nationals source is quoted saying the party is “pretty nervous” about Rob Oakeshott’s challenge to Luke Hartsuyker in Cowper, and “fearful of losing Page”, where Labor’s Janelle Saffin seeks to recover the seat she lost to Kevin Hogan in 2013. However, its polling is also said to show Barnaby Joyce leading Tony Windsor in New England.

• Labor is said to be confident about the outer Sydney seat of Macarthur, but less so about other Sydney marginals including Lindsay and Banks.

• In Central Queensland, Capricornia and Flynn are rated as “likely Labor gains”, while Nationals MP George Christensen is “precarious” in Dawson.

• In Victoria, Corangamite is said to be the only Liberal-held seat Labor is now targeting, suggesting it is not hopeful about the Melbourne seats of Dunkley, Deakin and La Trobe. The Labor-versus-Greens contest in Batman is rated as lineball, but Labor is thought unlikely to lose its vulnerable Melbourne seats of Chisholm and Bruce to the Liberals. Liberal candidate Chris Jermyn’s poor performance is thought likely to save Labor from the Country Fire Authority backlash in McEwen, but the controversy is giving the Liberals an “outside chance” in Bendigo.

Further:

• David Crowe of The Australian reports Jacqui Lambie is “performing so strongly in Tasmania that major party observers expect her to win and perhaps gain enough votes to elect her running mate, Devonport mayor Steve Martin”. The report also suggests the Nick Xenophon Team could potentially win seats in Victoria and Western Australia, and suggests Derryn Hinch, Bob Day and David Leyonhjelm are stronger prospects than Pauline Hanson and Glenn Lazarus, without writing either off (unlike Ricky Muir and John Madigan, who don’t rate a mention).

• Sarah Elks of The Australian reports on Labor efforts to shore up Terri Butler, its member for the inner southern Brisbane seat of Griffith, citing Liberal National Party insiders who say “the ALP has been panicked into throwing money at a seat it is no danger of losing”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

998 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50”

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  3. Should be lots of fun having another Blairite as leader of the British Labour Party. I’m sure the 59.5% 0f Labour members that first preferenced Corbyn will be happy with that. They won’t tolerate a bunch of toffee-nosed spivs taking over the Labour Party again, and sucking up to Murdoch.

  4. ‘bemused
    Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 5:39 pm
    william bowe @ #581 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 5:25 pm
    “Stop calling people pricks, Boerwar.”’
    It’s a fair cop, so leave it be, IMO.

    I would have thought that was much milder than a lot of terms, or innuendos, used on PB.

  5. [He has never had the support of the Labor MPs and now they really want to get rid of him and probably will succeed.]
    But did they ever like him, can’t he just run again?

  6. Don@4.27 pm. You can blame me – I think – for the Midsommer thing. It was a bit of fun to speculate which was this mythical place in the UK would jump at the recent referendum. Opinions seem evenly split. One thing is for certain, with an average of 2-4 murders in each episode over so many years, it is surprising that Barnaby kept his job. But as one wag has mentioned the murder rate is probably still below that of the US. Nonetheless, each nation has its stereotypes and I often feel a reading of them gives some kind of insight into why a nation acts one way or another. I have often speculated what it is about railways that makes many in the UK go misty eyed.

  12. The UK Labour Party will be history if he right-wing of the party try to overthrow Corbyn.

    The neoliberal careerists in UK Labour want a do-over after losing the leadership vote last year. The pretext for doing this is flimsy. They chose to do immense damage to working class people’s interests, and now they have the gall to blame Corbyn for the consequences of their choice.

  13. So what did the Romans ever do for us? “View from Wales: town showered with EU cash votes to leave EU” https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/25/view-wales-town-showered-eu-cash-votes-leave-ebbw-vale?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+AUS+v1+-+AUS+morning+mail+callout&utm_term=179158&subid=15232850&CMP=ema_632

    Given polling predicted a Brexit loss how sure are we about exit polling that showed a majority of Labour supporters voted to remain?

  14. Problem with Corbyn and his hardline supporters is they have always just floated along the assumption that all of their beliefs are self-evident and don’t need arguing, and that, if you disagree with them, you’re a Blairite neocon blah blah.

    But the problem with his opponents is they take it to the other extreme and think UK Labour needs to be this bland media machine which produces sterile robots as its candidates.

    UK Labour need a leader who has strong passion and conviction but still has media savvy, good people skills, and a good rapport with the party room and senior party figures.

  23. On now ABC Compass with Geraldine Doogue – Values in the House:

    http://www.abc.net.au/compass/values-in-the-house/default.htm

    In this one-hour Compass special, Geraldine Doogue goes beyond the political point scoring and engages with five politicians – one from each of the parties and an independent – about their core values and beliefs. What is it really like to be a politician within the current “win-at-all-costs” culture in 2016? The 24-hour news cycle and demands of an unrelenting Twittersphere create an often hostile and unstable environment for politicians. How are their core values and ethics tested in this unpredictable climate? And how does this inform their policies and engagement with their electorates?

    Josh Frydenberg, Fiona Nash, Andrew Leigh, Jacqui Lambie and Scott Ludlam dig deep to reveal what underpins their approach to their work.

  24. phoenixgreen @ #607 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 5:48 pm

    ABC reporting that a Lonergan poll sample 1,357 puts the Greens candidate in Melbourne Ports ahead of Danby. Liberals at 42, Greens at 27, Labor at 25.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-26/greens-spruik-climate-education-policy-at-campaign-launch/7544956
    Labor’s preferences to the Liberals in that seat could bring Turnbull one step closer to majority.

    Labor won’t be recommending that prefs go to the G’s. What voters do is up to them. It’s likely that some Labor voters would rather not support the G candidate.

  25. woops…..Labor won’t be recommending that prefs go to the Liberals. What voters do is up to them. It’s likely that some Labor voters would rather not support the G candidate…

  26. “Every time RDN rolls out the “inevitability” of a Lab/Greens coalition my opinion of him goes down 50% . The arskehole knows damn well that it is electoral poison for Labor.”

    Yep. I wish he STFU.

  28. “UK Labour need a leader who has strong passion and conviction but still has media savvy, good people skills, and a good rapport with the party room and senior party figures”. I was in the UK last year when Corbyn was elected. The media (including the Guardian and the Independent) never gave him a fair hearing so why should he pander to them. The mainstream media is part of the problem and just as much the enemy as the Tories are – best avoid them.

  30. phoenixgreen @ #607 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 5:48 pm

    ABC reporting that a Lonergan poll sample 1,357 puts the Greens candidate in Melbourne Ports ahead of Danby. Liberals at 42, Greens at 27, Labor at 25.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-26/greens-spruik-climate-education-policy-at-campaign-launch/7544956
    Labor’s preferences to the Liberals in that seat could bring Turnbull one step closer to majority.

    The Greens earlier had a ReachTEL with Lib 44.7 ALP 23.7 Grn 20.2 (not sure how undecided were handled there). Need a neutral poll to sort out this mess as so many polls skew to the Greens and Greens internals can’t be trusted.

    But what is actually happening with HTV cards on the ground in Melbourne Ports at present? Anyone know?

  31. sohar @ #609 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 5:49 pm

    The UK Labour Party will be history if he right-wing of the party try to overthrow Corbyn.

    You don’t have to be a right winger to want to remove Corbyn. He’s an ineffectual leader for Labour. Really, Brexit is as much a defeat for Labour as it is for the Tories, who face disintegration. The UK faces some desperately difficult times. Labour really needs to build its capacity to lead the country…something Corbyn is certainly unable to do.

  32. Laurie Oakes, aka The Sphere of Influence, said yesterday that internal Labor polling showed 7 to 8 seats previously written off, showing late swings. Hence the 2nd launch in Brisbane.

  33. Essentially Labor’s plan is to invest some $10b over the next four years to change the structure of the budget into a sustainable position.

  35. He basically said nothing … except … yeah they were probably hiding their costings and admitted their deficits would be higher in the first 4 years

  36. Kevin
    Not just the brits that need Harry Perkings but we do as well. Too bad the same fate would happen though.

  37. You know I think I prefer Christine Milne to this wally.

    I never thought I’d say this but I do too. Di Natale is just cringeworthy.

  39. b.c. @ #617 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 6:04 pm

    You’re kidding me. “Brexit remorse: Brits madly Google ‘what is the EU?’ after voting to leave it”. “Many people also took to Google to look up how to move to other countries such as Australia or New Zealand.”
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/national/a/31918381/brexit-remorse-brits-madly-google-what-is-the-eu-after-voting-to-leave-it/
    To be honest, I though it was from The Onion when I first saw it.

    They have been fooled into choosing voluntary liquidation, a process that usually follows insolvency. In the UK, the order will be reversed. Their insolvency will be self-inflicted.

  41. Labour voters overwhelmingly voted for Remain. A significant minority didn’t because the EU does nothing good for them and their lives are chronically ignored by Labour and the rest of the political class. Expecting Corbyn or anyone to have persuaded those voters to vote for such an unappealing proposition is unreasonable. You can’t force people to eat dung for dinner, and nor should you. The Blairites are sore losers with no understanding of what they have done and why they are hated.

  42. Space Ki…Buffering ‏@SpaceKidette · 19m19 minutes ago

    Hubby just saw Mal’s rallying cry at the end of his speech. His response was to piss himself laughing! #ausvotes

  44. I am sure that English Tory governments will ensure that all those suffering from the elite political classes under the EU will no longer suffer after Brexit.
    You know that it is in the Tory DNA.
    Naturally the Greens, who appear to be suckers for Tory hucksterism, believe this to be true.

  46. Boerwar

    I once had the pleasure of sharing a lift at Parliament House with the Sphere. I can report he was indeed round, but perfectly proportioned, with a low center of gravity.

  47. Hear bloody hear!

    O_O
    2m2 minutes ago
    O_O ‏@bradthegunn
    “Stability Jobs Growth” Might actually mean something if it didn’t come from the most useless bunch of halfwits in history #keystonegov

  48. victoria @ #638 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 6:25 pm

    Jo Maugham QC
    Jo Maugham QC – ‏@JolyonMaugham
    If you had a slight suspicion Corbyn was deliberately sabotaging the Remain campaign then… you weren’t alone. http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-allies-sabotaged-labour-in-campaign-and-fuelled-brexit_uk_576eb1b5e4b0d2571149bb1f?f0kkhs8f68cucjtt9 …

    Corbyn has abandoned the working people of the UK, effectively aligning himself with Farage and Johnson. What a Trot…what a Green he is.

  50. Victoria:

    I thought I read that Cameron has pledged to stay on for 90 days or something like it while his replacement is elected. I took this as him essentially saying he didn’t want BJohnson as leader, so was giving the party enough time to find a Not Johnson candidate.

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