Galaxy: 50-50

Yet another poll recording nothing in it on two-party preferred, this time with the novelty factor of a follow-up question probing how the Coalition might have gone if Tony Abbott had been kept as leader.

The Sunday News Corp papers have a national federal poll from Galaxy, although their websites are being a little coy about the fact. The poll shows two-party preferred at 50-50, which is all I can tell you about voting intention at this stage, because I’m not seeing any primary votes, sample sizes or field work dates. (UPDATE: Primary votes here – Coalition 42%, Labor 35% and Greens 11%). The report does relate that a follow-up question found Labor would lead 53-47 if Tony Abbott was still Liberal leader; that 38% believe Labor’s claim that a Coalition government would privatise Medicare, compared with 45% who don’t; and that 30% believe Malcolm Turnbull’s claim that Labor’s negative gearing reforms would drive down house prices, compared with 40% who don’t. More to follow on that at a later time.

In other news, today’s Fairfax papers have a report canvassing party insiders’ views on the state of the horse race:

• A Nationals source is quoted saying the party is “pretty nervous” about Rob Oakeshott’s challenge to Luke Hartsuyker in Cowper, and “fearful of losing Page”, where Labor’s Janelle Saffin seeks to recover the seat she lost to Kevin Hogan in 2013. However, its polling is also said to show Barnaby Joyce leading Tony Windsor in New England.

• Labor is said to be confident about the outer Sydney seat of Macarthur, but less so about other Sydney marginals including Lindsay and Banks.

• In Central Queensland, Capricornia and Flynn are rated as “likely Labor gains”, while Nationals MP George Christensen is “precarious” in Dawson.

• In Victoria, Corangamite is said to be the only Liberal-held seat Labor is now targeting, suggesting it is not hopeful about the Melbourne seats of Dunkley, Deakin and La Trobe. The Labor-versus-Greens contest in Batman is rated as lineball, but Labor is thought unlikely to lose its vulnerable Melbourne seats of Chisholm and Bruce to the Liberals. Liberal candidate Chris Jermyn’s poor performance is thought likely to save Labor from the Country Fire Authority backlash in McEwen, but the controversy is giving the Liberals an “outside chance” in Bendigo.

Further:

• David Crowe of The Australian reports Jacqui Lambie is “performing so strongly in Tasmania that major party observers expect her to win and perhaps gain enough votes to elect her running mate, Devonport mayor Steve Martin”. The report also suggests the Nick Xenophon Team could potentially win seats in Victoria and Western Australia, and suggests Derryn Hinch, Bob Day and David Leyonhjelm are stronger prospects than Pauline Hanson and Glenn Lazarus, without writing either off (unlike Ricky Muir and John Madigan, who don’t rate a mention).

• Sarah Elks of The Australian reports on Labor efforts to shore up Terri Butler, its member for the inner southern Brisbane seat of Griffith, citing Liberal National Party insiders who say “the ALP has been panicked into throwing money at a seat it is no danger of losing”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

998 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50”

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  1. lizzie @ #542 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 4:55 pm

    Don

    Could someone enlighten me as to the significance of the word ‘Midsomer’ in the last series of posts? Is it something to do with the TV series, and the type of people portrayed there?

    People are using it as a group name for the Midsomer ‘county’ types.

    Thanks Lizzie. It appears to be ‘a thing’ only on this blog, I could not find any reference to it when I googled.

  2. Lots of misinformation about Midsomer. It has a lower murder rate than the US and is lower than the world average. 😀

  8. Is it possible that Lynton Crosby did not want to run the Stay campaign for Cameron because Rupert wanted out?

  10. The thing about Midsomer murders is that that once they start they have little runs of them.
    If you are ever in Midsomer and someone gets murdered the healthiest thing to do is to rack off.

  11. booleanbach

    More than likely. Rupes’ papers have been “110%” for decades when it comes to spreading bullshit about ‘immigrants’ and the EU/Common Market.

  13. The CPG are at fault for accepting Hunt’s lies and Malcolm’s “we are doing everything we can”.

    The former Liberal leader John Hewson addressed hundreds of people protesting in the Sydney suburb of Double Bay – minutes from Malcolm Turnbull’s harbourside mansion – calling on the prime minister to take stronger action on climate change.

    Speaking at the same time as Turnbull addressed the party faithful at the Coalition’s campaign launch, Hewson told protesters the Coalition’s lack of action on climate change was a “national disgrace”.

    “I think climate change should be the dominant issue of this campaign – it should have been for quite some time,” said Hewson, who was once the local member for the seat of Wentworth, which includes Double Bay.

    He said “short-term politicking” from both sides left targets that were inadequate and policies that were not going to meet those targets.

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/jun/26/climate-change-john-hewson-accuses-coalition-of-national-disgrace?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_chompSMS

  14. Sky News Australia‏ @SkyNewsAust
    .@RichardDiNatale says he’s willing to enter negotiations with Labor in the event of a hung parliament #ausvotes (link: http://snpy.tv/28U0mmd) snpy.tv/28U0mmd

    Gawd why can’t he stop trying to rub up against Labor? All it does is feed the lines the coalition are running about a Labor-Greens alliance!

  15. @RichardDiNatale says he’s willing to enter negotiations with Labor in the event of a hung parliament

    ———————-

    @RichardDiNatale finally admits that he will have no realistic choice other than offering to negotiate with Labor in the event of a hung parliament, if he and his party are to have more than a snowflake’s chance in hell of getting any of their agenda up and running.

  16. Don
    Midsomer is a popular UK television series set in a hypothetical town of Midsomer.
    Think Jane Austen with Jaguars and Tudor style.
    The whole population used to be white but after serious criticisms they now have assorted non-Caucasians.
    Consistently the nicest character in the series is the dog.

  18. briefly
    Every time RDN rolls out the “inevitability” of a Lab/Greens coalition my opinion of him goes down 50% . The arskehole knows damn well that it is electoral poison for Labor.

  20. JM

    ‘RichardDiNatale says he’s willing to enter negotiations with Labor in the event of a hung parliament’
    Dirty Dick can just eff off.
    After this campaign Dirty Dick will be about as welcome as a dose of herpes in a brothel.
    Any notion that the Greens were on the side of Labor and not on the side of the Liberals is dead, buried an cremated.

  23. rossmcg @ #510 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 4:22 pm

    Private schools that spend this sort of money should be asked serious questions aboyrt why they need a top up from governments
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/private-schools-locked-in-facilities-arms-race-20160624-gpr5v3.html

    I have pointed out previously that there is a strong correlation between the profit these private education companies declare each year and the amount of government funding they get. In other words, they are entirely self funding, and the money the government gives them does not go to the students – presumably it goes to the shareholders … whoever they are.

    I wish I had kept the original article – it was from several years ago.

  33. William,

    “Midsomer people’ are for the most part well off people who live in the rural parts of the prosperous South of England. ”
    “Eighteen seasons on, haven’t they all been murdered?”

    I’m afraid you are guilty of a theological fallacy here.

    In fact, in the Midsomer region, the Hari Khrisnas have had a lot of converts, thereby freeing up a lot of reincarnated souls to act as a conveyor belt of murder victims.

    One egregious and well-deserving victim was in fact reincarnated as Sykes the dog.

  40. The point being is that more of less likely for LNP being able to form gov, and I would have thought that is a good thing….

  43. At least in Midsomers they have some laughs. I saw the end of a show the other day. A detective picks up a phone, and the last lines were: “The Vicar? Hanging from a bell-rope? Right, we’re on our way …”

  46. I hope some people on here do not believe the fantasy biased Labor predictions they post on the outcome of the election.

  48. My in-laws did a midsomers’ murder tour and pleasingly survived.

    My suggestion that they avoid going near any brooks no doubt assisted this outcome.

  50. Here’s one comment I picked out from the guardian:

    It is as if Christmas has come early this year for the membership of the Labour Party.
    Right wing neoliberal MPs are committing hari-kari all over the shop.
    Keep it coming guys, this is like music to the membership’ ears.
    Right, Who is next? Please form an orderly queue so we can savour each of these resignations in equal measure and stagger the enjoyment of seeing the party being returned to its rightful owners from these neoliberal apologists.

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