The New South Wales Teachers Federation has produced the most intriguing set of marginal seat poll numbers of the campaign so far, showing Labor headed for victory in six crucial seats in New South Wales. The polls were conducted on Monday by ReachTEL, and target the same electorates as an earlier round of polling for the union on April 19. Five of the six results record movement to Labor since the earlier poll:
Dobell (Labor 0.2%): A poll of 616 respondents credits Labor’s Emma McBride with a lead of 53-47, up from 51-49 in April. The forced preference primary vote results are Labor 39.6%, Liberal 36.6%, Greens 7.8% and others 16.0%. On previous election preferences, Labor’s lead would be still greater, at 54.7-45.3. Karen McNamara won the Central Coast seat for the Liberals in 2013 by 0.7%, but the redistribution has left it with a notional Labor margin of 0.2%. Polls earlier in the campaign showed very little in it: a ReachTEL poll for the Fairfax papers on June 9 had it at 51-49 to Labor, and a Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids on May 11 had it at 50-50.
Lindsay (Liberal 3.0%): Four earlier polls, including two from ReachTEL and two from Newspoll/Galaxy, showed the Liberals leading in the outer western Sydney seat, but the NSWTF’s poll of 610 respondents has Labor’s Emma Husar with a 54-46 lead over Liberal member Fiona Scott. Primary votes are Labor 39.9%, Liberal 34.5%, Greens 3.9% and others 21.6%. On previous election preferences, Husar’s lead is 54.6-45.6. Scott led 53-47 in a Newspoll on June 14, 51-48 in a ReachTEL poll for the Australian Education Union on June 13, 54-46 in a ReachTEL for Fairfax on June 9, and 54-46 in a Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids on 54-46.
Macquarie (Liberal 3.3%): The poll of 636 respondents has Labor candidate Susan Templeman with a 54-46 lead over Liberal member Louise Markus in the western Sydney hinterland electorate, from primary votes of Labor 38.9%, Liberal 38.9% and Greens 12.1%. On previous election preferences, Templeman’s two-party lead is 55.0-45.0.
Eden-Monaro (Liberal 2.9%): In a poll of 636 respondents in the famous bellwether electorate in the state’s south-eastern corner, Labor’s Mike Kelly has a commanding lead of 55-45, or 54.0-46.0 on previous election preferences. Primary votes are Liberal 40.4%, Labor 37.5%, Greens 14.8% and others 7.3%. A similar poll for the Australian Education Union on June 18 produced much the same result.
Gilmore (Liberal 3.8%): A poll of 632 respondents in the southern New South Wales seat, which was last held by Labor in 1996, has Labor’s Fiona Phillips leading Liberal member Ann Sudmalis by 53-47. Primary votes are Liberal 39.3%, Labor 37.0% and Greens 12.5%. The result on previous election preferences is much the same (52.7-47.3). A poll by Galaxy for the News Corp tabloids on May 11 had the Liberals ahead 51-49.
Page (Nationals 3.1%): A poll of 647 respondents has Labor’s Janelle Saffin leading 54-46 in the seat she lost to Nationals member Kevin Hogan in 2013, from primary votes of Nationals 39.1%, Labor 36.6% and Greens 15.4%. On previous election preferences, the two-party difference is 53.3-46.7. A ReachTEL poll for the Australian Education Union on June 13 had Saffin leading 52-48.
Elsewhere:
• James Massola of Fairfax offers an account of the state of play based on discussion with “more than a dozen Labor strategists, officials, MPs and campaign workers across every state of Australia on Wednesday – as well as Liberal and National party strategists”. This suggests Labor has 66 seats pencilled in, with a good deal many more not being written off, and a hung parliament being well within the range of possibilities.
• The West Australian reports Labor polling “has picked up substantial swings against the coalition in Burt, Cowan, Swan and in the safe Liberal seat of Pearce, held by Cabinet minister Christian Porter”. Laurie Oakes related on the weekend that Labor had detected a 9% swing in Pearce, where Porter’s margin is 9.3%, and I gave the pot a further stir in a paywalled WA situation report in Crikey yesterday.
• According to Sharri Markson of The Australian, polling for the Nationals confirms the findings of a ReachTEL poll for GetUp! on June 13 in showing independent Rob Oakeshott on over 20% of the primary vote, leaving him “neck and neck” with Nationals member Luke Hartsuyker after preferences.
citizen @ #1848 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 2:42 pm
Mal could rent them his office space!
Mr Assange may have a term limit now on his embassy stay 😆
How long until Boris is PM.
Just voted.
Can’t stop smiling.
Brexit! HUZZAH!
citizen @ #1848 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 2:42 pm
Effectively, the Caymans have just come to London.
compact crank @ #1853 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 2:44 pm
You are obviously also hallucinating.
Explains a lot.
You’re an English nationalist living in Australia. Talk about hypocrisy!
On the other hand, what’s ill for the UK may be good for us here. Perhaps we should establish a global money and insurance centre in Perth…or Adelaide. Quite likely, the Aucklandese will get there first.
Not Little Britain but Little England. The Union is about to fall to pieces.
Interesting (in the light of the conservatives belief in the trickle down mantra) was some commentary from some Chamber of Commerce dude in the UK, bemoaning the fact that business had not really explained to the English working classes that good things would eventually come their way if GB stayed in the European set up. He glumly admitted that the public had not seen the benefit of membership and thus told the government to shove it. Of course, Turnbull is using he same approach with his $50 billion tax cuts to business. He might also be told to shove.
jimmydoyle @ #1856 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 2:49 pm
yes….figures…aka the neo-colonial sneer…
Madaferrari: So from the look of the voting, older more conservative people voted to leave EU while the yonger people wanted to remain. Good luck #Brexit
Turnbull and the media are going to milk Brexit for all it’s worth so it’s more important than ever Labor keep talking about Medicare and education.
On the plus-side, I’m going to the UK in a week, so I now have more money to spend! Woohoo!!
The Libs managed to destroy Labor’s economic competence reputation with their debt and deficit disaster campaign. Bowen can remind people of the GFC all he likes, what people will hear is scary economy, Labor distaster, vote Liberal.
Labor need to acknowledge the result, and then stay on message.
Turnbull sez:
I agree.
Allie Coyne @alliecoyne
TPG wants a letter to accompany whatever orders judge makes to say ISPs haven’t done anything wrong so end users don’t blame ISPs #siteblock
TRICOT – We’ll wait and see. But, for the moment, I can’t see why Brixet will make a big difference to the election campaign. Indeed, they might focus a bit more on the Sco-Mo v Bowen match-up.
sprocket_ @ #1844 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 2:40 pm
……………………………………………………………………..
Already happening US 10 Year Bond now @ 1.484% (top right hand corner – the figure is moving about) was 1.745% overnight.
So yield is dropping because bonds are being bid up with demand.
Also remember the US 10 Year Bond has been in a down trend for a long time and was 2.30% in early 2016. Big moves for bonds.
http://markets.wsj.com/us
In response to Turnbull’s strong stable etc.
Yes a conservative government has worked out really well for the UK.
Sceptic re the City of London…….some have already suggested something alone these lines if the Remain vote went pear-shaped. There were some discussions I read not so long ago that London would be a kind of Singapore in the UK – a type of City State – with its own set of rules and regs to suit the global as opposed to the cottage economy the rest of England will be. I read somewhere also that Heathrow airport contributed something like 10% alone to the whole GDP. I can’t remember the actual figure but is was impressive.
Player, I hope your right, and Adrien’s point was a good one, but with a 1 term incumbent coalition that erroneously [in my view] claims fiscal competence, I fear it will give their strong point, the economy, oxygen.
Citizen
It’s weathered many storms worse than this one.
I agree with Turnbull – Australia needs a strong, stable government with a genuine economic plan, which is why people shouldn’t vote for him.
Tricot,
Exactly.
Liberals want to give big business tax cut. Labor wants to invest in social capital. Education, health, jobs for Australians.
Sense the mood in the UK. Big business is on the nose. Banks are on the nose.
Turnbull wants to invest in big business and the banks. Shorten wants to invest in and put people first.
Is the mood in Australia strong enough to reject the old thinking and accept the labor way ?
We shall see. The case is there for labor to argue and the last week was always going to come back to the economy and economic management.
Cheers.
Autocrat,
Still waiting for the plan. So far the plan is to say “we have a plan” a lot. Then when pressed on it he says… “The tax cuts for large companies aren’t until after the next election (which was to push them outside the forward estimates) so you can vote against them then if you like…”
Flimsy as…
Yep Great Britain will soon be an historical footnote.
I personally think Brexit is a disaster for the right wing in the UK. UKIP now has no reason to exist. The neoliberals in the Consevative Party and the City of London (and the Labour Party for that matter) will now be forced to be honest and admit that it is their low/no tax agenda, and not the EU’s, that has decimated British manufacturing, jobs, and prosperity. The right have no boogeymen to use anymore – they are now responsible for anything that continues to go wrong in the UK.
ctar1 @ #1871 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 2:56 pm
…………………………………………………………
Yep and the Brits will get through this as well and probable make it work to their advantage.
JD – England has been a life-support system for the City of London for decades. The system just struck back.
Austerity the name for trickle down economics creates instability. So if you want good economic management and stability put the LNP last
The Liberals soulmate UK Tories have just trashed their economy by giving voice and opportunity to jingoistic idiots.
Not sure yet how to work this into a meme locally
CompactCrank
[Just voted.
Can’t stop smiling.
Brexit! HUZZAH!]
Need a ride to the airport?
So, Charles will be King of England. Not quite what he envisaged when he was younger.
Turnbull has a problem if he tries to claim “We’ll all be rooned if Labor is elected”.
The immediate market volatility and uncertainty for the future is happening on HIS watch, not Labor’s. Any attempt to say things would be worse under Labor could trigger even greater volatility before the election if market players believed his claim and considered the possibility of a Labor win.
As noted in the quotes by both Morrison and Bowen on the ABC election blog, both the current Treasurer and Shadow Treasurer have obviously been briefed by Treasury and are taking a calm approach for fear of creating even greater turmoil in the markets. Any attempt to make political capital over Brexit would likely backfire on Turnbull and the Liberals.
I see Julie Bishop has joined Keenan in the LNP pile-on to Anne Aly.
Here’s their boy Simpkins criticising people for not speaking English and alleging that people might pretend not to speak English:
‘What worries me a little bit is that there are some people in our community who have migrant backgrounds and who have been in the country for many years—and yet they do not speak English. It could be just me, that they do not want to speak to me—so they may make these things up…
‘The trouble is that there are some places in society where people can avoid having to speak English. ‘
HOORAH FOR BREXIT!
Proof the western world is not yet full of people who are traitors, weak minded or out of touch with reality and unrealistically idealistic.
A win for democracy and western society and culture.
The Oz need whinge about Brexit.Their master Mr Murdoch wanted Brexit.
Dave
If some parts of the UK start to peel off it will be interesting to see if the CoL will be asking the Parliament to had back the powers that have been devolved over the last 3 centuries.
Turnbull copying what cameron recently said re: ‘strong economic plan’.
Paris Cowan @parisbcowan
Beat them in court, demanding probably millions in legal fees, & now it looks like IBM has poached Qld Health’s CIO
Boerwar: Little Britain.
“Computer says nooo.”
Everyone fearing economic armageddon will be proven wrong, wait and see.
(Economic armageddon may come but it will be for unrelate issues – e.g. over financialisation of the world’s economies rather than productive investment and copies amount of debt). It will not come from economies being able to choose their own destinies an actions free from foreign over-rule.
(multiple overzealous auto-correct errors!)
Shorten should say: If Malcolm Turnbull says Brexit is an issue, let’s have a debate about it.
CITIZEN – Totally agree.
Murdoch wanted Brexit and got it.His papers should be full of praise for him here.
[Need a ride to the airport?]
Uber?
LOL ABC 24 asks what David Cameron’s first order of business will be… I would’ve thought it would be to resign.
Brexit was a vote against inequality on income. For same reason vote Labor putting people first.
CTar1
Cat amongst the pigeons.
Booleanbach
When Scotland was considering leaving the Union, there was no intention to jettison the monarchy. Charles may well be King of England but he will most likely be King of Scotland as well. Just like the old days. 🙂
Airbus wings no longer to be manufactured in Britain. Britain to be excluded from pan-European defence arrangements like the euro copter and the euro fighter. European banks to move from the City to Frankfurt. 1.1 million Brits living in Europe have been turned into foreigners. No more free health care for them in the EU. No free ride for them. Farming subsidies for English, Welsh, Northern Island and Scottish famers to be slashed. British manufacturers to face European tariffs. British exporters will still need to meet EU standards for their products. 700,000 poles which have been doing Britain’s dirty work become foreigners. Scotland to leave GB and become a member of the EU.
Two years of chaos and investment uncertainty while the negotiations are carried out with a vengeful EU.
Putin emboldened.
Ratbags like Farage and Bam Bam are empowered.
Regional separatists will redouble their efforts, further fracturing the EU.
Referendum not binding so great uncertainty.
World wide recession must be a whisker away.