The New South Wales Teachers Federation has produced the most intriguing set of marginal seat poll numbers of the campaign so far, showing Labor headed for victory in six crucial seats in New South Wales. The polls were conducted on Monday by ReachTEL, and target the same electorates as an earlier round of polling for the union on April 19. Five of the six results record movement to Labor since the earlier poll:
Dobell (Labor 0.2%): A poll of 616 respondents credits Labor’s Emma McBride with a lead of 53-47, up from 51-49 in April. The forced preference primary vote results are Labor 39.6%, Liberal 36.6%, Greens 7.8% and others 16.0%. On previous election preferences, Labor’s lead would be still greater, at 54.7-45.3. Karen McNamara won the Central Coast seat for the Liberals in 2013 by 0.7%, but the redistribution has left it with a notional Labor margin of 0.2%. Polls earlier in the campaign showed very little in it: a ReachTEL poll for the Fairfax papers on June 9 had it at 51-49 to Labor, and a Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids on May 11 had it at 50-50.
Lindsay (Liberal 3.0%): Four earlier polls, including two from ReachTEL and two from Newspoll/Galaxy, showed the Liberals leading in the outer western Sydney seat, but the NSWTF’s poll of 610 respondents has Labor’s Emma Husar with a 54-46 lead over Liberal member Fiona Scott. Primary votes are Labor 39.9%, Liberal 34.5%, Greens 3.9% and others 21.6%. On previous election preferences, Husar’s lead is 54.6-45.6. Scott led 53-47 in a Newspoll on June 14, 51-48 in a ReachTEL poll for the Australian Education Union on June 13, 54-46 in a ReachTEL for Fairfax on June 9, and 54-46 in a Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids on 54-46.
Macquarie (Liberal 3.3%): The poll of 636 respondents has Labor candidate Susan Templeman with a 54-46 lead over Liberal member Louise Markus in the western Sydney hinterland electorate, from primary votes of Labor 38.9%, Liberal 38.9% and Greens 12.1%. On previous election preferences, Templeman’s two-party lead is 55.0-45.0.
Eden-Monaro (Liberal 2.9%): In a poll of 636 respondents in the famous bellwether electorate in the state’s south-eastern corner, Labor’s Mike Kelly has a commanding lead of 55-45, or 54.0-46.0 on previous election preferences. Primary votes are Liberal 40.4%, Labor 37.5%, Greens 14.8% and others 7.3%. A similar poll for the Australian Education Union on June 18 produced much the same result.
Gilmore (Liberal 3.8%): A poll of 632 respondents in the southern New South Wales seat, which was last held by Labor in 1996, has Labor’s Fiona Phillips leading Liberal member Ann Sudmalis by 53-47. Primary votes are Liberal 39.3%, Labor 37.0% and Greens 12.5%. The result on previous election preferences is much the same (52.7-47.3). A poll by Galaxy for the News Corp tabloids on May 11 had the Liberals ahead 51-49.
Page (Nationals 3.1%): A poll of 647 respondents has Labor’s Janelle Saffin leading 54-46 in the seat she lost to Nationals member Kevin Hogan in 2013, from primary votes of Nationals 39.1%, Labor 36.6% and Greens 15.4%. On previous election preferences, the two-party difference is 53.3-46.7. A ReachTEL poll for the Australian Education Union on June 13 had Saffin leading 52-48.
Elsewhere:
• James Massola of Fairfax offers an account of the state of play based on discussion with “more than a dozen Labor strategists, officials, MPs and campaign workers across every state of Australia on Wednesday – as well as Liberal and National party strategists”. This suggests Labor has 66 seats pencilled in, with a good deal many more not being written off, and a hung parliament being well within the range of possibilities.
• The West Australian reports Labor polling “has picked up substantial swings against the coalition in Burt, Cowan, Swan and in the safe Liberal seat of Pearce, held by Cabinet minister Christian Porter”. Laurie Oakes related on the weekend that Labor had detected a 9% swing in Pearce, where Porter’s margin is 9.3%, and I gave the pot a further stir in a paywalled WA situation report in Crikey yesterday.
• According to Sharri Markson of The Australian, polling for the Nationals confirms the findings of a ReachTEL poll for GetUp! on June 13 in showing independent Rob Oakeshott on over 20% of the primary vote, leaving him “neck and neck” with Nationals member Luke Hartsuyker after preferences.
cupidstunt @ #1797 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 2:17 pm
As others have pointed out, the bookies were just fine. It was the punters who backed ‘remain’ who were wrong.
Bill Shorten and labor have been underestimated from day one.
Anyone who does not think Bill,Chris Bowen and the campaign team have not prepared for this are once again underestimating labor.
The last week of the campaign was always going to be about economic credibility with labor releasing its costings and projections to very very close scrutiny.
They have it well gamed.
Cheers.
player one @ #1778 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 2:07 pm
This will have no effect on the EU at all. The UK is a member of the customs union but not of the monetary union. The UK has voted to exclude itself from the world’s largest markets for goods, services and labour. This will have nothing but a deleterious effect in the UK and may drive re-industrialisation in some continental domains, to the detriment of UK manufacturing and services sectors. The overall effects inside the EU will be negligible.
Right- and left-populist fears and petit-nationalist politics have been allowed to triumph over modernity. This is a very sad day for the UK…probably a very good in Lyon, in Milan and the Veneto, in Bratislava, Madrid, Alsace, Liege, the Ruhr, to the East of the Elbe, and Trieste.
On the markets, risk aversion is high. Both the USD and gold are up. This will very soon dissipate. The UK accounts for just a tiny fraction of global industrial production and its role as a money-centre is not much more than an abstraction.
The folly of the English! Not since Suez have the Tories done anything so comprehensively stupid.
Sprocket_
Yes. it’s bloody ugly! Especially if weighted to the banks and the likes of BHP.
I guess the only good news from this ref. is that when Scotland eventually declares its independence and rejoins the EU, Edinburgh will become the new centre of finance in the British Isles.
Given that Morrison is actually still Treasurer, he has to adopt a cautionary stance on Brexit using Treasury briefing. This will tend to undermine Turnbull’s “panic if Labor is elected” approach. (From ABC election blog)
Bowen is saying much the same thing (perhaps he received the same Treasury briefing as Morrison?)
Adrian – [Maybe Labor should be reminding everyone who saved us from the last GFC.]
Yep.
The experts who modelled what could happen in areas have come out of this very well. The early indications from the first results from larger voting areas, Newcastle and Sunderland, proved to be exactly correct.
No, the punters were wrong in the UK.
Turnbull and ScoMo already spinning as uncertainty = vote safe ie. don’t change.
guytaur @ #1794 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 2:17 pm
A few companies have relatively insignificant investments in the UK. Some high-net-worth types have investments in London property. Too bad for them.
Everyone wants to blame someone or something for the rise of Trump, NXT, Bam Bam Johnson, Farage yadda yadda.
Me too! I blame junk food and the impulsivity of modern western culture.
And globalisation.
And reality TV.
simon katich @ #1807 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 2:22 pm
And Bowen just did.
TPOF
What was the old saying? Bookies drive home in Rollers and punters queue for a bus.
As a vote against globalisation we have seen opposition here to Free Trade Agreements.
In the 2 horse race thats advantage Labor as Turnbull has been talking up Free Trade Agreements his major economic achievement
So maybe in the not too distant future the flag of the UK will be the red cross of St George fir England and the red saltire of St Patrick (for Northern Ireland) on a white backround, i.e. The current Union Jack without the blue bits. Working the flag of Wales into the mix might be a design challenge: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_Wales#/media/File%3AFlag_of_Wales_2.svg
I imagine the Westminster parliament has to approve the holding of a referendum for Scotland to exit the UK. If this is the case, then it will be too busy for the next 2 years trying to untangle the masses of legislation required to exit the EU.
And all this for a short term political gain on Cameron’s behalf – idiot.
Notwithstanding the drop in the vote for the SNP at the recent Scottish elections, it is still a strong movement so I expect there will be a push for independence again. Perhaps not immediately, but as the actual date of the UK’s exit looms and the terms of leaving are known.
I doubt if Scotland will be allowed to join the EU however as I imagine Spain (the Basques), France (the Bretons), and/or Belgium (the Walloons) might veto any move in case in encourages those regions to secede in turn.
Brexit may encourage others within the EU to clamour for an exit – the Dutch and Swedes, as I understand it, are a bit so-so about membership, particularly because of the “open borders” and refugee situation which, in turn, has fostered a resurgence of right-wing politics.
I think the Brits are in for some years of turmoil.
simon katich @ #1811 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 2:24 pm
I tend to blame daylight saving whenever anything goes really wrong.
Bookies are like stockbrokers and realtors… all they care about is turnover.
Steve777, Sein Fein is already calling for a vote on the future of Northern Ireland.
FTSE futures are down 8%. Will be a bloodbath..
David Cameron is now challenging Neville Chamberlain as the UK PM with the worst judgement. Surely he has to resign and back Mad Boris for the top job.
adrian @ #1800 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 2:20 pm
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Yes, very much so.
And that the tories had to get rid of hockey as Treasurer (who never got a full budget passed or balanced one ) and that morrison who ‘replaced’ him is totally out of his depth.
They need to point out the 2014 budget was manifestly unfair and holds centre stage as when the tories started to implode.
Will Boris become the Tory Trump?
guytaur @ #1814 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 2:26 pm
These agreements are not instruments of free trade. They are devices to restrict trade that have been misnamed. They are, in fact, expressions against globalisation.
Little Britain.
“This will cause massive losses to those companies.”
I’m an economic illiterate, so let me know why Guytaur.
Who will be the losers there and why? Will there be winners?
Didn’t this all start when Cameron was looking for a politically expedient way to deal with UKIP?
teh_drewski @ #1809 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 2:23 pm
The UK vote, and also to a lesser extent the rise of Trump in the US, has shown that people are increasingly willing to throw out the “business as usual” model and risk a change. Mind you, this particular event has been coming in the UK for decades – I am only surprised that it took them so long!
I think this willingness to change things could impact on both the ALP and the LNP vote – but the LNP are likely to come out of it worse, as the ALP has a better track record in uncertain times.
And will no doubt be reminding people of that right up to July 2. Which is good as it gives them something important and topical to push as WELL as the Medicare stuff. Can be spun very much against the Coalition as its them that have doubles the deficit during their term. Hmmmm…….Alp to run with debt and deficit emergency because the Coalition are such fwarked up economic managers?
sprocket_ @ #1820 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 2:28 pm
Well… the worst since Eden, who was unquestionably the most incompetent in the post-war era.
I wonder what is going to happen to Gilbraltar, 96% remain vote.
boris @ #1641 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 1:01 pm
wRONg. The exact opposite happens.
Big Money is clearly upset at Brexit.
Edi
Gibraltar is a Crown Colony so any move by its legislature would have to be approved in Westminster. The local population have repeatedly voted down a union with Spain so I doubt that is on the cards. It will eventually just be “business as usual”.
sprocket_ @ #1820 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 2:28 pm
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No doubt some deep ‘reflection’ is taking place by those who purchased shares yesterday with their ears pinned back ? The Dow was up 200 points or so…..
The ‘smart money’ at work yet again……
steve777 @ #1832 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 2:33 pm
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The masters of the Universe tried to jawbone and bullshit the outcome and came a gutsa.
Edi
Apologies – it’s actually a British Overseas Territory but to all intents and purposes, it’s the same thing.
[I think this willingness to change things could impact on both the ALP and the LNP vote – but the LNP are likely to come out of it worse, as the ALP has a better track record in uncertain times.]
That’s not how the electorate will see it unfortunately. The meme of tories = fiscal competence is a hard nut to crack.
Brexit! HUZZAH!
boerwar @ #1824 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 2:30 pm
Chauvinism…and an allied belief on the part of the English middle class that they are to be spared the imperatives faced by the rest of the world. I think the privileged have just voted for their own relegation. Sadly, this will not helpEnglish working people. Hitherto, foreigners have been blamed for England’s problems. Now, the workers will be blamed instead.
Allan Moyes, thank you
Well we are not going to forget 2016 in a hurry thats for sure
Its the fallout here for people with nest eggs invested thats the worry. If there is a period of serious volatility and losses then fer sure there will be some investment schemes that have been operating on the edge that will go tits up. Not to mention people who will have bought shares on margin accounts over the rallies of the last couple of days.
imacca @ #1842 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 2:39 pm
The volatility will be all over by Monday.
The flight will be into safe haven curreny, read $US denominated bonds. So reasonably ok for Asia is general which tends to be pegged one way or the other to $US. Financial meltdowns, which Brexit could trigger can take a life of their own with panic selling, margin calls etc. Confidence could plummet, and some over-leveraged companies (hello Twiggy) might go belly up.
The big Australian miners RIO and BHP are dual listed in London and will tank with everything else.
This may be a challenge to the Markets Friend Malcolm – what will he do? Or say? Surely he will have to face the nation and explain what in means to us, sans waffle.
Can the city of London fill in the moat & stay in the EU
I guess this result means the majority in Britain have their pen licenses and MI5 was rendered impotent in fixing the vote.
compact crank @ #1838 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 2:37 pm
Do you always applaud when you see your friends inflicting harm on themselves?
Repost of something that seemed to vanish:
If unhappy with Brexit, The City of London could physically move to its real home in the Cayman Islands.
pithicus @ #1837 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 2:36 pm
Tories may be good when the money is flowing freely (although mostly they are good at diverting it into their own pockets!) – but the memory of the deft ALP handling of the GFC is sufficiently recent that most people will remember it. And if they don’t, I’m sure Labor will remind them!
Markets think this will be bad for the European and world economy. There are all sorts of knock on effects… Like this from the SMH
When the economic outlook is downgraded, so is the potential earnings and value of stocks.