The New South Wales Teachers Federation has produced the most intriguing set of marginal seat poll numbers of the campaign so far, showing Labor headed for victory in six crucial seats in New South Wales. The polls were conducted on Monday by ReachTEL, and target the same electorates as an earlier round of polling for the union on April 19. Five of the six results record movement to Labor since the earlier poll:
Dobell (Labor 0.2%): A poll of 616 respondents credits Labor’s Emma McBride with a lead of 53-47, up from 51-49 in April. The forced preference primary vote results are Labor 39.6%, Liberal 36.6%, Greens 7.8% and others 16.0%. On previous election preferences, Labor’s lead would be still greater, at 54.7-45.3. Karen McNamara won the Central Coast seat for the Liberals in 2013 by 0.7%, but the redistribution has left it with a notional Labor margin of 0.2%. Polls earlier in the campaign showed very little in it: a ReachTEL poll for the Fairfax papers on June 9 had it at 51-49 to Labor, and a Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids on May 11 had it at 50-50.
Lindsay (Liberal 3.0%): Four earlier polls, including two from ReachTEL and two from Newspoll/Galaxy, showed the Liberals leading in the outer western Sydney seat, but the NSWTF’s poll of 610 respondents has Labor’s Emma Husar with a 54-46 lead over Liberal member Fiona Scott. Primary votes are Labor 39.9%, Liberal 34.5%, Greens 3.9% and others 21.6%. On previous election preferences, Husar’s lead is 54.6-45.6. Scott led 53-47 in a Newspoll on June 14, 51-48 in a ReachTEL poll for the Australian Education Union on June 13, 54-46 in a ReachTEL for Fairfax on June 9, and 54-46 in a Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids on 54-46.
Macquarie (Liberal 3.3%): The poll of 636 respondents has Labor candidate Susan Templeman with a 54-46 lead over Liberal member Louise Markus in the western Sydney hinterland electorate, from primary votes of Labor 38.9%, Liberal 38.9% and Greens 12.1%. On previous election preferences, Templeman’s two-party lead is 55.0-45.0.
Eden-Monaro (Liberal 2.9%): In a poll of 636 respondents in the famous bellwether electorate in the state’s south-eastern corner, Labor’s Mike Kelly has a commanding lead of 55-45, or 54.0-46.0 on previous election preferences. Primary votes are Liberal 40.4%, Labor 37.5%, Greens 14.8% and others 7.3%. A similar poll for the Australian Education Union on June 18 produced much the same result.
Gilmore (Liberal 3.8%): A poll of 632 respondents in the southern New South Wales seat, which was last held by Labor in 1996, has Labor’s Fiona Phillips leading Liberal member Ann Sudmalis by 53-47. Primary votes are Liberal 39.3%, Labor 37.0% and Greens 12.5%. The result on previous election preferences is much the same (52.7-47.3). A poll by Galaxy for the News Corp tabloids on May 11 had the Liberals ahead 51-49.
Page (Nationals 3.1%): A poll of 647 respondents has Labor’s Janelle Saffin leading 54-46 in the seat she lost to Nationals member Kevin Hogan in 2013, from primary votes of Nationals 39.1%, Labor 36.6% and Greens 15.4%. On previous election preferences, the two-party difference is 53.3-46.7. A ReachTEL poll for the Australian Education Union on June 13 had Saffin leading 52-48.
Elsewhere:
• James Massola of Fairfax offers an account of the state of play based on discussion with “more than a dozen Labor strategists, officials, MPs and campaign workers across every state of Australia on Wednesday – as well as Liberal and National party strategists”. This suggests Labor has 66 seats pencilled in, with a good deal many more not being written off, and a hung parliament being well within the range of possibilities.
• The West Australian reports Labor polling “has picked up substantial swings against the coalition in Burt, Cowan, Swan and in the safe Liberal seat of Pearce, held by Cabinet minister Christian Porter”. Laurie Oakes related on the weekend that Labor had detected a 9% swing in Pearce, where Porter’s margin is 9.3%, and I gave the pot a further stir in a paywalled WA situation report in Crikey yesterday.
• According to Sharri Markson of The Australian, polling for the Nationals confirms the findings of a ReachTEL poll for GetUp! on June 13 in showing independent Rob Oakeshott on over 20% of the primary vote, leaving him “neck and neck” with Nationals member Luke Hartsuyker after preferences.
It saddens me that my homeland has to suffer in this way so that Borris Johnson can get a promotion.
Look to Australia, we’ve managed to knife 3 PMs in the back without destroying our economy as collateral damage. Why couldn’t Britain manage that?
autocrat @ #1723 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 1:34 pm
Exactly.
alias @ #1699 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 1:24 pm
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Actually you *seriously* underestimated Shorten as well as having gotten particularly personal and nasty towards him, while turnbull gave you your “heart a special kind of flutter”.
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And I’m very happy to remind you.
Most amusing! Of course I was talking about Boris Johnson 🙂
BK
As we say in Yorkshire – this uz knocked my duck raight off, flower
Are there any tallies yet for Brits overseas? A week or two back Boris was urging eligible Brits in Australia to vote leave.
continued financial uncertainty from Brexit result won’t help the alp I fear.
SCOTT – The poor in England decided things couldn’t get any worse. At least, for them, they will have a lower pound (to make manufacturing more competitive) and a restriction on cheap foreign labor. If I was in the midlands, I would vote to leave too. The greed of the city has been its undoing.
Maybe Malcolm can coach David on how to allow a conscience vote in parliament now that the plebescite has completed at huge cost to the Exchequer.!
If as seems likely Leave gets up and Cameron resigns and Boris replaces him we can expect much entertainment from the UK, while it is the UK that is.
From all accounts Boris has the attention span of a gnat, his rule as Mayor of London was just one publicity stunt after another and it was left to minions to make his crazy ideas work while he wrote columns for the Tory press which earned him more than his mayor’s salary.
This is the guy who going to be in charge of “negotiating ” the exit from the EU.
Pass the popcorn
meher baba @ #1639 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 1:00 pm
The insular England. England has not been an island economy since the 18th century. The English, at once so replete with a sense of their own unique importance, are retreating in fear from the cosmopolitan.
This is yet another example of the rejectionist mood of the day. The desire to retreat and to shut down is very widespread. Really, this is the last thing we should be doing. It is to deprive ourselves of the strength we most need. Let’s see how rejectionist intransigence plays out in Australian electoral politics.
I may be the odd man out here but I see this UK result as a opportunity for labor to push the stupidity of tax cuts to big business and how they are unaffordable.
Anyway, time will tell as to how the Australian voter will react. The debate had to return to the economy this coming week as labor releases its costings. Time for labor to argue its case.
We shall see. Not yet time for gloom and doom.
Cheers.
When I lived in England people always criticised the joining of the common market which is now the EU and wanted out.That was 20 years ago.
I very much hope that Bill Shorten has a message on why we should not be afraid…on where we may find our strength and our success in the world.
@ Kevin – Things can always get worse.
Sure, the e North can manufacture things, like good old days. But who will they sell them to?
Not the EU – The tariffs (set punishingly high to encourage Scotland, N Ireland, Wales and even England to rejoin and to prevent other countries from leaving) will prevent that from being profitable.
Scotland will leave Britain and re-join the EU.
It’s hard to tell what N Ireland will do. It could go for any of independence + join EU, splitting and half joining S Ireland, or just descending into chaos again.
Gibraltar will leave of course.
Wales will be the last guest left at the party, cleaning up the empty beer bottles along with the host.. It’ll get awkward, and they too will leave.
England will have no trading partners to export anything to.
England will rejoin the EU in ~5 years time, but it will be too late to get The United Kingdom united again.
A sad day.
is Boris Johnston an MP in the House of Commons?
The Poms can get out their old posters. Fog in Channel. Continent isolated. Trouble is they believe it.
Boris could be new British PM.!!
Are there any other candidates apart from Boris Johnson to replace Cameron if/when he resigns?
SCOTLAND VOTES REMAIN: 62% vote in favour of staying in the EU, with all local authorities backing ‘Remain’. #EUref
https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/746186141829898240
Leeds barely votes to remain, 50.3 to 49.7
If we’d had Liverpool, Birmingham, Manchester, Sheffield & Leeds in the first hour we could have called this hours ago
One thing about Brexit is that support crossed party lines.
This writer reckons politics in the UK will be changed forever
“There are, in reality, two results from this referendum that operate in separate dimensions – the order for withdrawal from the European Union and the demand that all of politics be conducted on different terms, for a different audience. The sheer scale of combining those tasks is breathtaking, and yet the air over Britain does not yet feel clear enough to breathe so thick is it with dust from an earthquake.”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/brexit-earthquake-has-happened-the-rubble-will-take-years-to-clear
Expat Follower yes, Member of Parliament for Uxbridge and South Ruislip
Boris and Doanld.
The world will be in safe hands.
Boris used to be London mayor.
Expat
Yep Boris was elected at the 2015 election. He was previously an MP from 2001 to 2008.
He has been a clown all his life
Boris, Donald, Vlad… geez we really ought to bring Tone back?
scott bales @ #1765 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 2:01 pm
The EU won’t exist in 5 years time. It has been on the verge of disintegrating since the GFC – this is probably enough to finish it off.
The Aussie stock market is in fee fall at the moment. Down 191 points or 3.6%.
Pommie bastards!
Edi, thank you. Will Cameron announce his intention to stand down? Will Scotland now push for secession again? What an absolute mess… and Labor has Jeremy Corbyn who makes Bernie sound centre-right… anyone watching this Chuka Umna guy on the BBC – he’s pretty impressive on the Labor side
fee = free
In addition to Scotland and Northern Ireland, perhaps the City of London can exit the UK and remain with the EU. That would help all those financial types keep their bonuses.
Brexit update:
Leave: 14,861,576 votes
Remain: 13,861,537 votes
Prediction (BBC) – Leave: 52% / Remain: 48%
well….i guess the Scotts will want to revisit the whole part of the UK question then??
Gawd, the volatility for peoples super balances will be not much fun over the next few weeks. I chickened out a couple of weeks ago ob the Brexit and Trump stuff and parked all mine in the Australian Bonds option. Glad i did now as i think they will be very tradeable instruments over the next few weeks.
And on a completely different matter, i hope that the ACTU’s proposal for a “Leave Bank” gets a run if the ALP win on July 2.
Doyley [I may be the odd man out here]
I am out there with you compañero.
Expat Follower, I think he will announce his intention to resign in the future but will stay on to try and keep things stable in the short term.
Could Scotland stay in the EU and the UK?? They have a certain amount of independence dont they??
Boolenbach, Inner London can move to Glasgow and keep an independent Scotland in the EU afloat with the remains of the UK struggles.
Disgusted in the UK
Turnbull did not want the UK to leave EU during a DD election, which the coalition is struggling with a primary vote of 40% to get numbers in both house of parliament
There goes the old saying as well…..So goes London…so goes Britain.
Leave now has a lead of over 1 million votes.
Australia will now likely be government by a Labor/Greens/Independent government
who will get the numbers in both houses to go on a spreading spree
Simon K.
Good to know I am not alone.
Could not think of a better partner !
Cheers.
For those saying little effect on Australia. Don’t forget a lot of Australian companies have massive investment in the UK. This will cause massive losses to those companies.
Michael Gove any chance of PM?
Ha ha Edi the odds of the city of london banks all upping and relocating to Glasgow in kilts and bagpipes chewing on some haggis lol.
So – it will be interesting to see how Turnbull attempts to spin it here to his benefit…
Luckily I had finished a gulp of tea just before I read that.
Shows the bookies were wrong as well in the UK
Yikes! Just looked at my share portfolio, down 5%.
Batten down the hatches….
G – Bunnings.
This could well have a detrimental effect on the Australian election.
Maybe Labor should be reminding everyone who saved us from the last GFC.