ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition; Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor

More evidence of a fine balance of support on the national two-party preferred, but with Labor falling short where it matters most.

The latest weekly campaign poll for the Seven Network from ReachTEL has the Coalition hitting a lead of 51-49, following headline results of 50-50 in the last two polls and a 52-48 in favour of Labor three weeks ago. This week’s forced preference primary vote totals are Coalition 43.5% (up 0.8%), Labor 33.6% (up 0.4%), Greens 9.1% (down 0.8%) and Nick Xenophon Team 9.1% (down 0.8%). Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 55.4-44.6 to 57.6-42.4, but both leaders’ personal ratings are little changed: Turnbull goes from 28.3% to 27.4% on very good plus good and from 37.4% to 36.3% on poor plus very poor, while Shorten goes from 27.5% to 29.6% favourable and from 38.6% to 39.7% unfavourable. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2576.

A rather different set of results emerges this evening from the latest fortnightly campaign poll by Ipsos for the Fairfax papers. It records a dramatic increase in the minor party vote, with both the Coalition and Labor down three points, to 39% and 33% respectively. Most of the yield goes to “others”, up four points to 14%, with the Greens up one to 14%. This cancels out on two-party preferred, which is unchanged at 51-49 in Labor’s favour on both the respondent-allocated and previous-election two-party preferred measures. The major parties’ loss of support isn’t reflected in the personal ratings, with both leaders up two on approval (47% for Malcolm Turnbull, 43% for Bill Shorten) and steady on disapproval (42% for Turnbull, 47% for Shorten). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 49-31 to 48-34. The live interview phone poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1437.

ReachTEL’s weekly marginal seat poll is a disappointing result for Labor, showing Liberal member Ken Wyatt retaining a 53-47 lead in his eastern Perth seat of Hasluck, suggesting a modest swing to Labor of 3%. Forced preference primary vote results are 46.1% for Ken Wyatt (46.2% at the 2013 election, post-redistribution) and 32.6% for Labor candidate Bill Leadbetter (29.2% for Labor in 2013). The Greens are on 13.5%, up from 10.7% in 2013, much of which comes from the forced response follow-up question asked of the undecided. The Greens got 10.9% on the first round question, but 21.1% of those who responded as undecided favoured the Greens on the follow up. The two-party headline is from respondent-allocated preferences, but 2013 election preferences would have produced the same result. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 753.

Also:

• A ReachTEL poll commissioned by GetUp! suggests Rob Oakeshott is looking competitive in his bid to unseat Nationals member Luke Hartsuyker in the seat of Cowper in the Mid North Coast region of New South Wales. Inclusive of forced preferences, the primary votes are Hartsuyker 42.6%, Oakeshott 25.6%, Labor 14.0%, Greens 8.4%, Christian Democrats 4.5%, others 4.9%. Hartsuyker would likely get over the line after preferences on those numbers, but only by a few per cent. The poll was conducted on Monday from a sample of 842.

• Roy Morgan has released details results of its polling conducted from April to June in South Australia – a little too detailed in fact, since results are provided at electorate level from samples of only 180 each. Taken in aggregate, the Nick Xenophon Team is at 21.5% statewide, which would score them three seats based on Kevin Bonham’s modelling. There is no clear indication of major geographical variation in the NXT vote, as was the case with Xenophon’s Senate vote in 2013.

• Another Morgan report repeats the electorate-level voting intention exercise for the seven seats recording the highest levels of Greens support, which suggests their primary vote to be slightly higher than Labor’s across Melbourne, Batman and Wills, but a) it’s hard to read much into this given the sample size, and b) Morgan has long been reporting excessive-looking results for the Greens. The report also tells us that Labor led 51-49 in Morgan’s regular polling over the fortnight, unchanged on the previous result, which didn’t get the usual published result this week for some reason.

UPDATE: Here is an update of BludgerTrack with the two latest polls, whose peculiarities have essentially cancelled each other out. The Coalition is up a seat in Queensland, but down two in New South Wales.

bludgertrack-2016-06-18

2016-06-16-marginal-seat-polls

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,029 comments on “ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition; Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 21
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  7. What has Malcolm Turnbull done in the last 2 weeks to deserve a poll bounce? Stayed on his feet and not put them in his mouth?

  8. nicholas @ #186 Friday, June 17, 2016 at 8:59 pm

    if there is a hung Parliament in the lower house, then the crossbenches should make a compact and hang the Parliament until it is blue in the face. It should simply refuse to offer even the slightest endorsement to either party until they have agreed

    In which case, there would be an election in which the Labor and non-Labor parties would likely exchange prefs in both houses and near-obliterate the voices of minority blackmail.

  10. @C@Tmomma
    And Xenophon. And the ever increasing sum total of all other parties. The more you neglect them, the more cynical and bitter they get toward your privileged position in this unfair system, and the more willing to help anti-politicians get in there and clear out the cartel.

  11. Dan, the big question about Turnbull in that photo is what on earth is he doing with his hands! It was a very strange stance all night. Arms akimbo and delving into his own pockets (rather than ours for a change!)

  12. @Briefly
    That threat is exactly the reaction people assume from you. Liberals and Labor preferencing each other to prevent any other voters from being represented. I did say cartel.

  16. @Pegasus
    Cheers.
    I have seen a slightly different version in Tasmania several times tonight on commercial TV, scenes and people swapped out for issue relevance I assume.

  20. Steve777 @ 9.12pm: Senator Arthur Gietzelt, when ALP spokesman for electoral matters back in 1981, issued a long and detailed proposal for STV PR for the House of Representatives. In an internal rejoinder, Senator Robert Ray described it as the ALP’s own neutron bomb, which would destroy the party but leave the surrounding countryside undamaged. Needless to say, the proposal didn’t fly.

  21. phoenixgreen @ #210 Friday, June 17, 2016 at 9:20 pm

    The voices of cynicism and bitterness dwell on the self-styled Left and the self-styled Right. The expressions in the “other-aligned centre” appear to me to be acting rationally. They are responding to decades of antagonistic campaigning, reflexive intransigence and decoy politics.

  24. If there was a hung parliament and the cross bench MPs forced an election just for the sake of it they would be signing their own political death certificates.
    An interesting prospect would be if different small parties with very different points of view held the balance of power in each house. The poor government would really struggle to get anything done then.

  25. phoenixgreen @ #212 Friday, June 17, 2016 at 9:22 pm

    @Briefly
    That threat is exactly the reaction people assume from you. Liberals and Labor preferencing each other to prevent any other voters from being represented. I did say cartel.

    Voters would applaud such a development. They will not consent to the Parliament being blackmailed by forgers and swindlers.

  26. Confessions #206 Friday, June 17, 2016 at 9:16 pm
    Incredible footage from Alice Springs storm as alluded to earlier.
    Just checked it out. there were over 20 of my relatives in the side bar, not sure if that means they commented or that they had just viewed it.

  28. @Briefly
    Regardless of NXT’s own motive, disenfranchised people from all sides are more likely to preference him over the cosy cartel because they want their democracy back before they can engage in any ideological contest.

    His decent primaries combined with overwhelmingly favourable preferences from all sides could make anything but a hung parliament impossible for as long as he’s on the political stage.

  29. c@tmomma @ #207 Friday, June 17, 2016 at 9:18 pm

    What has Malcolm Turnbull done in the last 2 weeks to deserve a poll bounce? Stayed on his feet and not put them in his mouth?

    ……………………………………………………..

    Coorey laid it out pretty well –

    ……Compounding the challenge is the Coalition’s painfully thin policy agenda.

    If elected, it will most likely have to compromise on its 10-year company tax cut plan because no-one who is set to have a balance of power in the Senate will allow any more than a tax cut for small and medium business.
    Once that negotiation is out of the way, and the industrial relations bills which triggered the double dissolution are dealt with, that’s pretty much it.

    Just sit back and watch the economy grow.

    The tories have bugger all policy wise, have given bugger all commitment to reform. They have in fact rejected most taxation reform.

    All they have is a vague jobsen groethe. Plus trickle down – 10 years or more out.

    If they can find a way to get stuff through the senate watch out.

  30. Briefly

    [They will not consent to the Parliament being blackmailed by forgers and swindlers.]

    Rubbish 50% vote LNP. The electors have considerable complacency for forgers and swindlers.

  31. @Briefly
    “not consent to the Parliament being blackmailed by forgers and swindlers” Oh, that was actually my point about the cartel.

  32. Re the Newspoll marginal seat analysis.

    Interesting to see which seats they polled and how many per seat.

    The definition of ” holding up ” in the marginals will also be interesting especially the number of seats they are behind and also the marginals that are neck and neck especially with still two weeks to go.

    The effect of Senator X. will also be interesting in SA.

    Cheers.

  34. The final opponents to Premier Daniel Andrews’ controversial deal with firefighters have been sacked or quit as the bitter dispute continues to hound his government.

    CFA chief executive Lucinda Nolan quit on Friday afternoon, less than two hours after the defiant board was formally sacked.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/cfa-crisis-chief-executive-lucinda-nolan-resigns-20160617-gplp2g.html#ixzz4BprlP6Ov

    —————-

    At the early voting centre where I am handing out Greens HTVs, there are two A-frames for the CFA with the caption “Send a message to Labor” (or similar).

  35. While I am not saying they are wrong, I am curious as to why the media spends so much time impressing the ‘marginal seat polling’ on us … and not talking the headline.

    I know we have to win the marginals, but I reckon they’d be a heckuva lot more cocky if the headline number was brilliant for them.

  36. It’s not a cartel it’s two political parties that traditionally have received a substantial majority of votes cast. The system has worked well for the country since federation.

  37. Hola Bludgers
    Enjoy your election, I’ll be looking in occasionally from Spain but thankfully spared the day to day trauma of electioneering. Fingers crossed Labor gets over the line or at the very least give the Libs a well earned scare. I think Shorten has done an amazing job to bring the polls this close & remain consistent on those policies that matter to most Australians, something the media have almost completely lost sight of. Turnbull on the other hand is widely regarded as a disappointment. Perhaps his greatest legacy will be toppling Abbott, a dangerous and divisive PM with no imagination or intelligence. The 2013 election was sort of Australia’s Trump moment and the punters failed on that mark. Maybe for this reason instinct tells me the LNP will squeak it in but oh what a joy if they don’t. Worst case Labor will have taken more than some skin of them anyhow.

    Strangely Spain has a general election on 26 June so at least I’ll get to take that in.

    Nos vemos Bludgers. *huge cheering smiley*

  38. phoenixgreen @ #228 Friday, June 17, 2016 at 9:33 pm

    Voters in SA may flock to NXT. That makes sense to me. What has not occurred is a flocking of voters to the G’s. It’s very easy but misguided for the G’s to blame Labor or “the cartel” for the paucity of its representatives. But neither Labor nor any else is to blame for this. The reason the G’s do not prosper is precisely because of democracy, not in spite of democracy.

    Voters taken as a whole just will not have G-policies. If you don’t believe me, go and ask them yourself.

    The G’s should ask themselves why it is that as an explosion in “other-positive” voting intention occurs, their own vote is stagnating? Why is this? It cannot be because of Labor because Labor seldom ever mentions the G’s. Why? Why is it that voters are repelled by the G’s? Why is it that even fellow-travellers, such as myself and boerwar, are repelled by the G’s? Why?

  40. Jenauthor,

    Good point.

    I would be interested to see if the analysis out tomorrow does have a national 2PP.

    The marginals will be interesting though, especially the ones neck and neck.

    I still think with two weeks to go people may be just waking up.

    We shall see.

    Cheers.

  42. roger bottomley
    Friday, June 17, 2016 at 9:09 pm

    David Peterson, what about Page or Brisbane?
    —————–
    I want to see a stronger 1st pref lift for Labor in inner suburban Brisbane to give Labor a chance there. The 0.6 redistribution on paper will slightly improve the Liberals first preferences (46.6) in Page and reduce ALP first preferences (38.7). PUP had an impact on this seat (5.8) as did the Greens (6.5). At the 2013 election the Coalition won the state 54.5 per cent to 45.5 per cent. The polls have the two major parties neck-and-neck at 50 per cent. That represents a swing at to Labor of 4.5 per cent, roughly. I think the Libs will be lucky to hold this seat on that small redistribution boost if PUP voters return 60% to the ALP.

  43. So who won?

    The studio audience gave it to Bill Shorten – he won 17 votes to Mr Turnbull’s seven – and they’re probably right.

    That could be because he delivered the line of the night during his NBN attack: “Press like if you prefer fibre to copper”.

    Rehearsed, sure, but effective.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/federal-election-2016-the-third-election-debate-was-the-best-of-the-bunch-20160617-gpm2wk.html#ixzz4BpucSldj

  47. Briefly I wonder if there is a risk for the Greens that they have been around long enough to viewed part of the political problem that cause a lot of people to want something different without having become large enough to survive in the medium to long term on their own merit. If so then they might go the way of the Democrats if they are not careful.

  49. @Davidwh
    That’s why it’s called a cartel, not outright election rigging. The idea that the system has worked well is a misnomer because we’ve never tried anything else. The test isn’t whether people support a cartel when they’re successfully skewing the system and suppressing alternatives, it’s whether they still do when you allow true competition on a fair playing field.

    And I should add that a very large and growing section of the community who are (by design) almost entirely unrepresented in the House don’t vote for the cartel despite their best efforts to reduce competition.

  50. edi_mahin @ #247 Friday, June 17, 2016 at 9:50 pm

    Briefly I wonder if there is a risk for the Greens that they have been around long enough to viewed part of the political problem that cause a lot of people to want something different without having become large enough to survive in the medium to long term on their own merit. If so then they might go the way of the Democrats if they are not careful.

    The G-s are the authors of their own misfortunes…no doubt at all about that.

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