The latest weekly campaign poll for the Seven Network from ReachTEL has the Coalition hitting a lead of 51-49, following headline results of 50-50 in the last two polls and a 52-48 in favour of Labor three weeks ago. This week’s forced preference primary vote totals are Coalition 43.5% (up 0.8%), Labor 33.6% (up 0.4%), Greens 9.1% (down 0.8%) and Nick Xenophon Team 9.1% (down 0.8%). Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 55.4-44.6 to 57.6-42.4, but both leaders’ personal ratings are little changed: Turnbull goes from 28.3% to 27.4% on very good plus good and from 37.4% to 36.3% on poor plus very poor, while Shorten goes from 27.5% to 29.6% favourable and from 38.6% to 39.7% unfavourable. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2576.
A rather different set of results emerges this evening from the latest fortnightly campaign poll by Ipsos for the Fairfax papers. It records a dramatic increase in the minor party vote, with both the Coalition and Labor down three points, to 39% and 33% respectively. Most of the yield goes to “others”, up four points to 14%, with the Greens up one to 14%. This cancels out on two-party preferred, which is unchanged at 51-49 in Labor’s favour on both the respondent-allocated and previous-election two-party preferred measures. The major parties’ loss of support isn’t reflected in the personal ratings, with both leaders up two on approval (47% for Malcolm Turnbull, 43% for Bill Shorten) and steady on disapproval (42% for Turnbull, 47% for Shorten). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 49-31 to 48-34. The live interview phone poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1437.
ReachTEL’s weekly marginal seat poll is a disappointing result for Labor, showing Liberal member Ken Wyatt retaining a 53-47 lead in his eastern Perth seat of Hasluck, suggesting a modest swing to Labor of 3%. Forced preference primary vote results are 46.1% for Ken Wyatt (46.2% at the 2013 election, post-redistribution) and 32.6% for Labor candidate Bill Leadbetter (29.2% for Labor in 2013). The Greens are on 13.5%, up from 10.7% in 2013, much of which comes from the forced response follow-up question asked of the undecided. The Greens got 10.9% on the first round question, but 21.1% of those who responded as undecided favoured the Greens on the follow up. The two-party headline is from respondent-allocated preferences, but 2013 election preferences would have produced the same result. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 753.
Also:
• A ReachTEL poll commissioned by GetUp! suggests Rob Oakeshott is looking competitive in his bid to unseat Nationals member Luke Hartsuyker in the seat of Cowper in the Mid North Coast region of New South Wales. Inclusive of forced preferences, the primary votes are Hartsuyker 42.6%, Oakeshott 25.6%, Labor 14.0%, Greens 8.4%, Christian Democrats 4.5%, others 4.9%. Hartsuyker would likely get over the line after preferences on those numbers, but only by a few per cent. The poll was conducted on Monday from a sample of 842.
• Roy Morgan has released details results of its polling conducted from April to June in South Australia – a little too detailed in fact, since results are provided at electorate level from samples of only 180 each. Taken in aggregate, the Nick Xenophon Team is at 21.5% statewide, which would score them three seats based on Kevin Bonham’s modelling. There is no clear indication of major geographical variation in the NXT vote, as was the case with Xenophon’s Senate vote in 2013.
• Another Morgan report repeats the electorate-level voting intention exercise for the seven seats recording the highest levels of Greens support, which suggests their primary vote to be slightly higher than Labor’s across Melbourne, Batman and Wills, but a) it’s hard to read much into this given the sample size, and b) Morgan has long been reporting excessive-looking results for the Greens. The report also tells us that Labor led 51-49 in Morgan’s regular polling over the fortnight, unchanged on the previous result, which didn’t get the usual published result this week for some reason.
UPDATE: Here is an update of BludgerTrack with the two latest polls, whose peculiarities have essentially cancelled each other out. The Coalition is up a seat in Queensland, but down two in New South Wales.
Imacca,
Did you read this today?
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/election-2016-bill-shortens-planning-is-outflanking-malcolm-turnbulls-20160616-gpl4xe.html
C@t, unlike some people I am not ashamed of speaking the truth. Don thought he would embarrass me by claiming I was a virgin but he was wrong. Anyone who thinks being a virgin is a shameful thing that should not be admitted is an idiot. It is so sad society has become so sex obsessed that it is viewed as an embarrassing thing for someone not to be having sex.
Ta, will peruse.
kevin-one-seven @ #143 Friday, June 17, 2016 at 8:33 pm
I suspect they wouldn’t care – as long as it provides copy. After all, a journo who reports a senior Labor figures says ‘X’ is being accurate by reporting what the senior Labor figure says. It sounds plausible so whether there is any truth or not to the whisper received by the journo, reporting that whisper is still a fact – and therefore the journo can say, hand on heart, that the claim is not fabricated.
Nicholas, if you Greens want a different voting system then get it changed and if you fail then don’t blame anyone but yourselves for your own lack of ability to sell your own policy.
…………………………………………………………………….
Probability is they will comprise old angry white men predominately catholics who will wrap themselves in the flag and a party name like the Australian Conservatives.
At least thats more honest then “Liberal”.
Liberals – my arse!
Edi Mahin,
I just advised you to go easy on that sort of stuff because it never ends well for all concerned, is all. This is ostensibly a politics and psephology blog after all.
* 0.67% of the seats
C@t and I was explaining I did not raise the subject but Don raised it and I was not going to just let him get away with his nonsense.
Good evening all,
Bill did well tonight, again.
I rarely agree with Katherine Murphy but she is well on track with her observation re Bill ramping it up.
Campaign launch on Sunday, two weeks to go.
I am sure Bill will bring all the threads together this weekend and, ablely assisted by his front bench , prosecute the case for a labor government.
I have strong confidence in the labor campaign strategy and the team guiding and directing it.
Stay on focus, on message and avoid any distraction and whatever argy baggy the Libs and MSM will try on.
The labor agenda resonates with the Australian voters, labor just needs to sell the message that they are the best party to deliver it.
Plenty of life in this campaign yet.
Re the polling. A real dogs breakfast which means no one can honestly stand up and call a winner at this stage.
Cheers.
TPOF,
Remember when ‘Senior Labor Figures’, aka Chris Bowen and Kim Carr, were backgrounding journos with all sorts of malarkey for their cause, Kevin2.0? : )
Not possible to change the system when the majors are only interested in the spoils and don’t care about sustainable and legitimate government.
edi_mahin @ #159 Friday, June 17, 2016 at 8:45 pm
So, won and done, eh? And let’s move on to more politics? : )
nicholas @ #162 Friday, June 17, 2016 at 8:47 pm
So, basically you’re pissing into the wind?
Jesus. Peeps wanna talk virginity FFS. Take that shit to http://www.mamamia.com.au/ already.
Re K17 @8:35PM: i don’t believe that the Coalition have announced all of their policies, which include dismantling Medicare, breaking up the ABC and SBS and selling off any bits the private sector wants, privatising the CSIRO, Snowy Hydro and anything else that isn’t (or is) nailed down, further privatising the delivery of health and education services, reintroducing Workchoices under a new name, eventually abolishing unemployment benefits…
Lateline debate is NBN tonight.
newspoll must be heading back to the libs. Chris Kenny and Bolt are gloating about ‘stunning results’ and calling the debate a ‘draw’ (despite most others giving it to shorten by a 2:1 margin) ‘with the real winner to be announced tomorrow’.
Hey just got notification from AEC just despatched my postal vote here’s hoping gets to greek island of serifos guessed right one to send to. Will be there from June 21 to july4 fingers crossed as long as pruneface doesn’t hear of it :devil:
@Edi_Mahin
Having a voting system that reflects all Australians isn’t just the problem for the increasing numbers of people who aren’t represented, but for anyone who believes that representation is a basic right. If you’re happy with the system that unfairly keeps you in power, don’t get all sooky when neglected voters resent you, fight you and doubt your legitimacy.
Is there a youtube video or similar of the facebook faceoff?
Or did you have to be there?
Thanks in advance.
Its pretty obvious the Libs will go back to what they tried to get through after the 2014 budget.The thought bubbles will become their policies.A leopard never changes its spots.
Doyley:
The sleepwalking to the election thing certainly benefits the govt and I think Labor had no choice but to shake things up. Personally I think Labor can now afford to appeal to the centre given the Libs preferencing arrangements wrt the GReens, and they should. Hopefully we’ll hear more about mainstream economic policies in the last 2 weeks and less about left leaning ’causes’ from Labor.
“Not possible to change the system when the majors are only interested in the spoils and don’t care about sustainable and legitimate government.”
Nicholas even if they had a referendum on proportional voting I really doubt it would get up. That’s not sniping at you, that’s just being pragmatic. People don’t like change, and changing the voting system to change how politicians get elected is very significant.
44 referendums have been held in Australia, of which only 8 have been carried.
William, re your observation earlier about bandwagon and underdog effects. If the historical evidence is in favour of the former, why do you think it’s been such a consistent pattern over many years for parties to talk their prospects down rather than up?
By your twisted logic, the public must really despair of the Greens then. Yes, we know, a system that doesn’t allow the greens on ~8% of the primary vote form government on their own is terribly twisted isn’t it…
Tom.
Stedi Edi, it’s not all about you deary.
David
We just had the Senate voting system changed without a referendum. I doubt it needs a referendum to change the voting system.
Tasmania ACT have proportional representation
@David
Plebiscite on whether to change, followed years later by plebiscite on which model is preferred, followed years later by yes/no referendum. No more Howard wedges.
edi_mahin @ #127 Friday, June 17, 2016 at 8:20 pm
He’s not attacking your parents. He’s pitying you.
Also, I think Hare Clark is compatible with the constitution and I expect many other proportional systems would be. Constitution is intentionally flexible in this area.
If Newspoll heads back towards the coalition I guess we’ll just get more greens/ALP bullshit and discussions of sexuality. Can’t wait.
SF – You’re probably right. But does Bolt gloat about good liberal results these days?
ADRIAN – Hang around. We’ll need you to referee.
What was the last Newspoll?
Just watched the Facebook debate. No wonder Turnbull is avoiding face to face encounters with Shorten. Bill completely dominated and Turnbull had no answer. Labour has to go on the front foot to stand a chance.
Unfortunately the focus groups suggest that the disengaged voter is still entrenched in negative images of Shorten
Because every front-runner in Australian politics is spooked by the ghost of Jeff Kennett. Could be though that the underdog theory means more in Australia, where you don’t have to gee people up into coming to vote for you.
Last Newspoll 50-50.
You are pissing on the people. Shame on you.
If Bolt called the debate for Turnbull then that’s good enough for me. Bolt is so neutral and steady.
If Kenny is gloating then it must have swung back to the Libs.
Bugger.
What are the FIN/IPSOS hiding ?
Anyway—-
Steele Blade
Friday, June 17, 2016 at 2:25 pm
But if the 14 wrong seats can break 9 to Labor and 5 to LNP then you’ve got a hung parliament.
——
The polls have been fixed around a 50 – 50 2PP outcome and first preferences seem unlikely to move enough to change the 76/70/4 Mr Bowe’s analysis was recently estimating. The Labor held seat of Charlton in NSW was abandoned by a post election redistribution by the AEC. A new seat was created [Burt] so we begin this election here: Coalition 90, Labor 54, Others 5 [Katter,Wilkie,Bandt, McGowan and Palmer] and one new seat up for grabs in WA. This new seat is nominally a Liberal seat with a 6.1 % 2PP margin so l start with 91/54/5.
I have identified 14 of the 16 seats Labor needs to get to 70 {Dobell, Paterson, Barton, Robertson, Lindsay, Macarthur, Eden Monaro (NSW) –Capricornia, Petrie (QLD) –Lyons (TAS) –Solomon (NT) Hindmarsh (SA) -Cowan-Burt (WA). So, where will the other two possible gains come from ? The six seats those extra two seats might come from in my mind are Grey (SA), Longman (Qld), Hasluck (WA), Dunkley (Vic) Braddon, Bass (TAS) which will I hope get Labor to 70 [+16] and pull the Coalition down from 91 to 75. The Coalition winning Fairfax back from PUP would push the outcome to 76/70/4. ‘Others’ like Xenephon taking Mayo, the Greens taking Higgins, Oakshott taking Cowper or Windsor taking New England would reduce the Coalition to 75 – a hung Parliament.
What a lovely dream for anyone whose main disgust with the Libs is Dutton’s treatment of traumatised people in offshore dehuman centres. I don’t dare hope for better.
Well K07, to mix codes, I’d give Edi a red card for being too self obsessed, and sin bin several serial offenders in the greens/labor flame wars. We and they would surely benefit from a spell.
Careful Adrian, you will be accused of whinging.
William @ 9.00pm: It also used to be widely believed that Menzies almost lost in 1961 because voters believed he couldn’t lose, and therefore wanted to take the opportunity to give his government a bit of a shake up.
David Peterson, what about Page or Brisbane?
The “old Labor” plurality, comprising the Labor PV plus the Labor-positive share of the G PV appears to be down to about 41% of the electorate. This is a very long way below its common 20th century range between 46 and 48%
The LNP plurality is also experiencing some attrition, also dropping from its 20th century range in the high 40’s to the low 40’s.
The space in between – an aggregate of around 17% or 1/6 of the electorate – is occupied by a range of centrist and RW expressions. Just where these expressions in this election finally settle remains to be seen. They may break down fairly evenly between the Labor/Non Labor divide this time, though there’s nothing to say such a breakdown would be stable. It’s obvious that this cohort has the potential to dilate very quickly, as we can see from the apparent support for NXT in SA. This suggests that both the Labor and non-Labor cohorts are vulnerable to even deeper attrition.
On a related topic, some of the G voices have called for a power-sharing deal between the G’s and Labor on terms that would benefit the G agenda. Such a deal will never be made for one very compelling reason. While it might satisfy the G’s at first, any gratification would only be temporary. The result would be a collapse – a complete collapse – in the historic G+L plurality. This voice would likely contract to less than 1/6 or 1/8 of the electorate and the traditional Labor expression would become subsumed into some other centrist chorus.
This election is the culmination of decades of negative campaigning and associated brand attrition. It has the potential to scuttle stable, efficacious government.
As I understand it, we wouldn’t need a referendum to introduce proportional representation, so long as each State voted separately (‘at large’, i.e. PR on a State by State basis) and Tasmania had at least 5 members. We would need a referendum if the whole country were to be treated as a single electorate, however.
In any case, it’s hard to see how either major party would ever allow it to happen. Not the Nationals or any party in coalition with them. A geographically based minority, their seat numbers are about double what their percentage of the vote would warrant. Not Liberal or Labor, the main beneficiaries of the current system.
It might just happen some time in future if , say, the Liberals split, with the Far Right taking about 20% of the vote. Or maybe if the Greens get up towards 20% of the vote and Labor has no choice but to negotiate with them.
nicholas @ #190 Friday, June 17, 2016 at 9:02 pm
Only if they’re Little Green Men. : )