ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition; Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor

More evidence of a fine balance of support on the national two-party preferred, but with Labor falling short where it matters most.

The latest weekly campaign poll for the Seven Network from ReachTEL has the Coalition hitting a lead of 51-49, following headline results of 50-50 in the last two polls and a 52-48 in favour of Labor three weeks ago. This week’s forced preference primary vote totals are Coalition 43.5% (up 0.8%), Labor 33.6% (up 0.4%), Greens 9.1% (down 0.8%) and Nick Xenophon Team 9.1% (down 0.8%). Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 55.4-44.6 to 57.6-42.4, but both leaders’ personal ratings are little changed: Turnbull goes from 28.3% to 27.4% on very good plus good and from 37.4% to 36.3% on poor plus very poor, while Shorten goes from 27.5% to 29.6% favourable and from 38.6% to 39.7% unfavourable. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2576.

A rather different set of results emerges this evening from the latest fortnightly campaign poll by Ipsos for the Fairfax papers. It records a dramatic increase in the minor party vote, with both the Coalition and Labor down three points, to 39% and 33% respectively. Most of the yield goes to “others”, up four points to 14%, with the Greens up one to 14%. This cancels out on two-party preferred, which is unchanged at 51-49 in Labor’s favour on both the respondent-allocated and previous-election two-party preferred measures. The major parties’ loss of support isn’t reflected in the personal ratings, with both leaders up two on approval (47% for Malcolm Turnbull, 43% for Bill Shorten) and steady on disapproval (42% for Turnbull, 47% for Shorten). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 49-31 to 48-34. The live interview phone poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1437.

ReachTEL’s weekly marginal seat poll is a disappointing result for Labor, showing Liberal member Ken Wyatt retaining a 53-47 lead in his eastern Perth seat of Hasluck, suggesting a modest swing to Labor of 3%. Forced preference primary vote results are 46.1% for Ken Wyatt (46.2% at the 2013 election, post-redistribution) and 32.6% for Labor candidate Bill Leadbetter (29.2% for Labor in 2013). The Greens are on 13.5%, up from 10.7% in 2013, much of which comes from the forced response follow-up question asked of the undecided. The Greens got 10.9% on the first round question, but 21.1% of those who responded as undecided favoured the Greens on the follow up. The two-party headline is from respondent-allocated preferences, but 2013 election preferences would have produced the same result. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 753.

Also:

• A ReachTEL poll commissioned by GetUp! suggests Rob Oakeshott is looking competitive in his bid to unseat Nationals member Luke Hartsuyker in the seat of Cowper in the Mid North Coast region of New South Wales. Inclusive of forced preferences, the primary votes are Hartsuyker 42.6%, Oakeshott 25.6%, Labor 14.0%, Greens 8.4%, Christian Democrats 4.5%, others 4.9%. Hartsuyker would likely get over the line after preferences on those numbers, but only by a few per cent. The poll was conducted on Monday from a sample of 842.

• Roy Morgan has released details results of its polling conducted from April to June in South Australia – a little too detailed in fact, since results are provided at electorate level from samples of only 180 each. Taken in aggregate, the Nick Xenophon Team is at 21.5% statewide, which would score them three seats based on Kevin Bonham’s modelling. There is no clear indication of major geographical variation in the NXT vote, as was the case with Xenophon’s Senate vote in 2013.

• Another Morgan report repeats the electorate-level voting intention exercise for the seven seats recording the highest levels of Greens support, which suggests their primary vote to be slightly higher than Labor’s across Melbourne, Batman and Wills, but a) it’s hard to read much into this given the sample size, and b) Morgan has long been reporting excessive-looking results for the Greens. The report also tells us that Labor led 51-49 in Morgan’s regular polling over the fortnight, unchanged on the previous result, which didn’t get the usual published result this week for some reason.

UPDATE: Here is an update of BludgerTrack with the two latest polls, whose peculiarities have essentially cancelled each other out. The Coalition is up a seat in Queensland, but down two in New South Wales.

bludgertrack-2016-06-18

2016-06-16-marginal-seat-polls

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,029 comments on “ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition; Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. AUSDAVO – Love your analysis, by the way. It shows how ill-disciplined the Libs are that Malcolm spouted about winning and then Dutton drank the Koolaid and starting to divide up the spoils with Tony in Cabinet. Then, today, Malcolm realised his error and came back to “every vote counts”.

  2. That’s well and good, but in our single member electorate system, it’s about seats.

    In terms of a major party forming government, sure. In terms of representing the voters: no.

  3. To summarise it in a sentence, Turnbull looked like a bullshit artist, Shorten looked like a man with far less taste for bullshit, and I suspect the audience saw it that way, too

  4. Confessions @ 7.40

    I think that is a pretty good summary from Murphy. Labor and Shorten have surprised me by not being more aggressive – there is certainly a lot of vulnerabilities that could upset the Coalition and Turnbull. They need to get aggressive and forthright. It’s not just how terrible Coalition policies are; it’s the fact that Turnbull does not have the confidence of his own divided party and they are going to return to a Senate every bit as difficult as the one they sacked through the DD.

  5. His Newspoll wow would only mean its unexpected so im assuming it favours Labor.Nothing wow about the Fibs being in front.

  6. BB, academic research has found a certain amount of evidence for bandwagon effects, and none that I’m aware of for underdog theories. It seemed to be that underdog theory became popular in Australia to explain Steve Bracks’ surprise win over Jeff Kennett in 1999. Maybe it has more pull in the Australian cultural context. As usual in the social sciences, the answer is, “it depends”.

  10. “Yet Labor insists that they will only govern by themselves, and do so legitimately and with due regard for the two thirds of the voters who don’t support them. I think they need a democracy infusion.”

    Nicholas Labor is not reliant on the Greens. The Greens only have one seat so this ‘power sharing’ is bollocks. If Labor has 33% primary vote they will not win the election (Greens attacks on Labor’s primary vote no doubt will be a factor). But with Malcolm Turnbull and his shaky Liberal government, Labor will have a better chance of getting a majority in it’s own right in three years time.

    I’d rather Labor has a majority that can win a couple of terms, then Labor-Greens-Independents minority government that serves one term.

  11. Nicholas – Friday, June 17, 2016 at 7:55 pm
    Well that’s what we’ve had for I don’t know how long. Or are you ignoring that the Coalition is a group of separate parties?

  12. In Wakefield there has been Liberal postal vote mail-out 2 days after the election was called and nothing else from anyone until Wednesday when Zi got one from Xenophon introducing his “team”, and a Labor Save Medicare one.

    If Nick Champion is concerned about holding his seat he’s certainly not showing it.

  13. Welcome and well said Greg.

    It is appalling how people are pigeon-holed so often. I grew up in a similar area – the housing commission so-called “valley of the deserted wives” or Green Valley. Yes there were issues with unemployment and such, but a good proportion, like me and my hubby, made good and escaped the cycle of poverty/unemployment etc.

    I blame media for much of this misinterpretation of the character of the electorate (then and yours now). When they interview or research, they continually go for the extreme … to reinforce their own preconceived story aim.

    It is sad because outsiders get a warped opinion of people as a result.

  14. David

    You a seer now. You can say with 100% certainty that the Greens will retain Melbourne and not win additional seats?

    On BOP all Labor needs is vote of confidence RDN has already hamstrung his negotiating position by saying he will support Labor.

  16. One thing to be said about the facebook debate – anyone with a facebook profile doesn’t need to ask “where can I stream this debate”!

  18. GUYTAUR – I thought 7.30 was pretty good tonight for labor. Saying that Labor can’t win is killing the Libs with kindness. And watching Malcolm repeatedly deny that the Libs were going to axe medicare was gold for labor.

  19. TPOF:

    Murphy was musing on FAcebook this morning about Labor’s starting to ramp up the aggression as a way of running interference on the torpor the coalition want. Personally I think she’s onto something; a softly, softly, boring as batshit campaign only benefits the govt.

  20. In 2013 I put $10 (last of the big spenders!) on Tanya Plibersek as leader of the Labor Party by 2016.

    Unless Bill gets run over by a bus, I suspect I’ve done my dough 😉

  21. As a couple of us said yesterday.It doesnt matter if Turnbull wins hes lost.Fair piece by P Coorey for a change.

  23. AustralianLabor: Mr Turnbull’s plebiscite wasn’t designed by supporters of marriage equality. It was designed by Tony Abbott. #auspol #leadersdebate

  24. terms of a major party forming government, sure. In terms of representing the voters: no.

    Agree. I’m a believer in Proportional Representation or MMP.

  25. puff, the magic dragon. @ #1935 Friday, June 17, 2016 at 7:04 pm

    Don,

    Still a virgin?)
    You have kids, right?

    Puff, I think you came in half way through the discussion.

    I am definitely not a virgin (though I would never admit it if I were!)

    I have three adult children, one wife (total, still married to the first one, I got lucky, always have been, I am a lucky bastard, always land on my feet, even when things go pear shaped) and all the kids have strange curved little fifth toes which identifies them as mine, though not anything to write home about.

    And the right blood group.

    I’ll never forget the strange look the family doctor gave me when he insisted on testing for Rh factors, all three times, when I said ‘Look Mark, my wife and I are both Rh negative, what’s the point of testing for Rh factors?’

    He tested anyway, and all came out good. I didn’t realise what he was on about until years afterwards.

  29. AustralianLabor: Mr Turnbull’s plebiscite wasn’t designed by supporters of marriage equality. It was designed by Tony Abbott. #auspol #leadersdebate

    And there’s the rub… Turnbull is leader now. He should be able to INSIST on a new party policy… but he can’t.

  30. BB – I start from the basic proposition that nobody who is truly inside the Labor campaign would try to be “honest” with a journalist. If they give information it is for a tactical reason (though it has to be within the bounds of credibility). So if they are saying that Labor is not expected to win, that is for a tactical reason. It may well be true. But that is not the objective of the exercise.

  31. It was strange to see a Prime Minister effectively arguing against his own parties policy and stating that it was something the party decided before he was leader.

  33. BB

    Yep.
    KKeneally: Turnbull says he can’t change the party’s policy on a same sex marriage plebiscite. But he changed their policies on super and tax.

  34. It occurred to me that Bill Shorten has been cautious throughout the early part of the campaign not to appear too aggressive so as to not have the ‘Angry’ tag slung around his neck like a dead weight. I can still remember how Julie Bishop and the rest of them leapt onto Tanya Plibersek and called her ‘Angry Tanya’ just because Tanya showed some emotion in question time once in response to Liberal lies about something.

    So I’m thinking that Bill has worked assiduously during the front half of the campaign to get his favourability ratings up before going in for the kill in the home stretch and mowing Malcolm down.

  38. K17 @ 8.24

    (though it has to be within the bounds of credibility)

    Only journalistic credibility – a very low bar indeed.

  39. So I’m thinking that Bill has worked assiduously during the front half of the campaign to get his favourability ratings up before going in for the kill in the home stretch and mowing Malcolm down.

    That makes perfect sense C@t.

  40. Loving how the optimism of the Labor supporters on here is turning Shortens apparent lack of impact on the campaign so far into being part of a magnificently brilliant strategic plan to win the election in the last two weeks of the campaign.

  41. So I’m thinking that Bill has worked assiduously during the front half of the campaign to get his favourability ratings up before going in for the kill in the home stretch and mowing Malcolm down.

    ALP seem to have a plan to use the whole of the campaign period. Be interesting to see how it plays out.

  42. And there’s the rub… Turnbull is leader now. He should be able to INSIST on a new party policy… but he can’t.

    ……………………………………………………………………………………

    Particularly when he specifically undertook not to seek a new policy as the price of him having the numbers to roll abbott.

    The real policy is to block ME far more than to have a plebiscite.

    A plebiscite was just part of a strategy to delay and ultimately block ME.

    turnbull signed off on it – it was just expendable same as Climate Change action.

  46. Have to admit the polls aren’t where I thought they would be and the trend isn’t great, although it does appear to be mostly driven by one particular polster. I’m a fair way from accepting this is over, but just maybe it’s going to be a case of people, while being disappointed, are just not ready to change the government.

  47. IMACCA – Those with better memories should correct me. But I can’t remember a situation where both parties basically had announced all their policies and the electorate had about 21 days to feel the merchandise. Since Labor’s are so much better, it will be interesting.

  49. “SkyNewsAust: Andrew Bolt says the ground is being prepared for the rise of a conservative party #ausvotes https://t.co/kNpCS1OUSK”

    yes please – split the libs into conservatives and lib democrats. The lib democrats could then from time to time form gov with minority labor governments and the centre-left would rule for ever more, with the greens keeping things left in the senate. the conservatives would be an ugly rump who’d keep australia to the left by being bernardi-horrible.

  50. Nicholas Labor is not reliant on the Greens. The Greens only have one seat so this ‘power sharing’ is bollocks.

    You don’t understand why people are so dissatisfied by the political system. It’s the system’s chronic failure to produce governments that respond to people’s concerns in a manner that is widely seen as legitimate, comprehensive, and well-reasoned. You rightly point out the absurdity that a party with 10% of the national vote gets only 0.0067% of the seats in the national legislature where governments are made and unmade. The electoral system has to be repaired, and until that important task is completed the major parties need to work cooperatively with other parties to produce legislation that responds to the systemic problems that are hurting our people. It is stupid and counter-productive for Labor to be spitting on the Greens – a party that has bent over backwards to help Labor enact big chunks of its agenda.

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