The latest weekly campaign poll for the Seven Network from ReachTEL has the Coalition hitting a lead of 51-49, following headline results of 50-50 in the last two polls and a 52-48 in favour of Labor three weeks ago. This week’s forced preference primary vote totals are Coalition 43.5% (up 0.8%), Labor 33.6% (up 0.4%), Greens 9.1% (down 0.8%) and Nick Xenophon Team 9.1% (down 0.8%). Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 55.4-44.6 to 57.6-42.4, but both leaders’ personal ratings are little changed: Turnbull goes from 28.3% to 27.4% on very good plus good and from 37.4% to 36.3% on poor plus very poor, while Shorten goes from 27.5% to 29.6% favourable and from 38.6% to 39.7% unfavourable. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2576.
A rather different set of results emerges this evening from the latest fortnightly campaign poll by Ipsos for the Fairfax papers. It records a dramatic increase in the minor party vote, with both the Coalition and Labor down three points, to 39% and 33% respectively. Most of the yield goes to “others”, up four points to 14%, with the Greens up one to 14%. This cancels out on two-party preferred, which is unchanged at 51-49 in Labor’s favour on both the respondent-allocated and previous-election two-party preferred measures. The major parties’ loss of support isn’t reflected in the personal ratings, with both leaders up two on approval (47% for Malcolm Turnbull, 43% for Bill Shorten) and steady on disapproval (42% for Turnbull, 47% for Shorten). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 49-31 to 48-34. The live interview phone poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1437.
ReachTEL’s weekly marginal seat poll is a disappointing result for Labor, showing Liberal member Ken Wyatt retaining a 53-47 lead in his eastern Perth seat of Hasluck, suggesting a modest swing to Labor of 3%. Forced preference primary vote results are 46.1% for Ken Wyatt (46.2% at the 2013 election, post-redistribution) and 32.6% for Labor candidate Bill Leadbetter (29.2% for Labor in 2013). The Greens are on 13.5%, up from 10.7% in 2013, much of which comes from the forced response follow-up question asked of the undecided. The Greens got 10.9% on the first round question, but 21.1% of those who responded as undecided favoured the Greens on the follow up. The two-party headline is from respondent-allocated preferences, but 2013 election preferences would have produced the same result. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 753.
Also:
• A ReachTEL poll commissioned by GetUp! suggests Rob Oakeshott is looking competitive in his bid to unseat Nationals member Luke Hartsuyker in the seat of Cowper in the Mid North Coast region of New South Wales. Inclusive of forced preferences, the primary votes are Hartsuyker 42.6%, Oakeshott 25.6%, Labor 14.0%, Greens 8.4%, Christian Democrats 4.5%, others 4.9%. Hartsuyker would likely get over the line after preferences on those numbers, but only by a few per cent. The poll was conducted on Monday from a sample of 842.
• Roy Morgan has released details results of its polling conducted from April to June in South Australia – a little too detailed in fact, since results are provided at electorate level from samples of only 180 each. Taken in aggregate, the Nick Xenophon Team is at 21.5% statewide, which would score them three seats based on Kevin Bonham’s modelling. There is no clear indication of major geographical variation in the NXT vote, as was the case with Xenophon’s Senate vote in 2013.
• Another Morgan report repeats the electorate-level voting intention exercise for the seven seats recording the highest levels of Greens support, which suggests their primary vote to be slightly higher than Labor’s across Melbourne, Batman and Wills, but a) it’s hard to read much into this given the sample size, and b) Morgan has long been reporting excessive-looking results for the Greens. The report also tells us that Labor led 51-49 in Morgan’s regular polling over the fortnight, unchanged on the previous result, which didn’t get the usual published result this week for some reason.
UPDATE: Here is an update of BludgerTrack with the two latest polls, whose peculiarities have essentially cancelled each other out. The Coalition is up a seat in Queensland, but down two in New South Wales.
‘7 News Sydndy not good for LNP.’
It’s getting to the stage where the commercials are more even handed that the ABC.
William Bowe
Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 3:29 pm
How come the preference skeptics on this blog never ask if the Greens flow to Labor is likely to remain at 83% now the Liberals are led by Turnbull rather than Abbott?
———————————–
You may choose from the following answers – your time starts now –
A. Nobody goes to the Nazi Party rally grounds anymore, we politely keep our prejudices hidden these days behind Red, Blue, Green or Xenephonic masks and anonymous Avatars.
OR
B. We know that 97 (66%) of the 150 HOR seats in 2013 were decided on 2nd preferences and in 15 of those seats the one who topped the list on first preferences got beaten – 12 to Labor and three to ‘others’, – BUT you can’t win an election against an incumbent on 33 – 35 % first preferences so you have to cast doubt on the validity and/or reliability of current 2PP polls, depending on whether your ‘team’ is on the wrong side of 51/49 etc.
OR
C. Malcolm Turnbull is being read as Abbott Lite – not much different – so Greens flows to Labor may not be 83 % in 2016, but it shouldn’t be substantially influenced, either way, by a change of leader. [My play with the election toys limits Green preference flows to Labor to 70%].
OR
D. All of the above, and [fill in the blank space_________________________________________
Thank you for your time. Please place a gold coin in the donation box on your way out the door. All proceeds will be donated to the Whinge and Win Foundation.
Are those SA figures based on the assumption NXT comes at best third in all seats and most of its preferences to the Liberals?
In response to the latest polling Richmond Greens candidate Dawn Walker issued a statement today stating the party had the “chance to make history in the northern rivers”.
http://m.tweeddailynews.com.au/news/labor-and-greens-poll-ahead-nats-richmond/3047786/
Er, what? Would it be historic for the Gs to come second but lose on 2PP by at least 60-40% ?
Assuming the polling is right then Elliot wins Richmond with Nats prefs. Assuming The polling is overstating the Gs vote Elliot wins with Gs prefs.
It means Labor suffered politically from the union. The Gillard govt may have been the most productive and effective govt in my lifetime, but that doesn’t mean Labor took hits by association from its public collaboration with the Greens.
adrian
The 4.5% was a bit of a surprise I would have thought it would be 5% if the GST was going to rise to 15%.
Still the odd figure will mean Western Sydney “aspirational” voters will remember it.
DAVID P: I don’t donate. But if Labor only gets 70% green prefs, I will swim across a river of s… without a snorkle.
Didn’t take hits.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/crime-is-up-in-dandenong-but-can-the-apex-gang-be-blamed-20160617-gplftk.html
A New Hampshire car dealer is offering everyone who buys a car a free AR-15 assault rifle, a type of weapon similar to the one used in the Orlando LGBT nightclub massacre
His after sales service had better be spot on
confessions
Labor did not suffer politically from the two parties working together. What Labor suffered from was the political disaster of disunity in the Labor party with the RGR leadership soap opera and the media reporting of that.
The media parroting this disaster line now is to ignore the real policy gains made with all that legislation passed the majority of which is still in place.
Blaming working with the Greens for the disaster of the politics is just a stupid myth.
The Canberra Press Gallery sure knows how to run the LNP line on any unity from progressives.
The MSM are obsessed with National Opinion polls and individual seat polls too but the polling companies are mostly directing preferences as per 2013.
The Victorian and then the Queensland State elections both saw one term governments booted and the indications were there that previous preference distribution was highly likely to be a poor indicator. The “swing back factor” after a decisive previous victory clearly indicates that the “preference distribution” would “swing back” (which it did).
Social media has played a huge part in the last 3 years in getting the “message” out to more people than ever before. There are two very strong social media messages infiltrating the spectrum of voters.
Firstly “vote LNP last” which was highly successful especially in Queensland.
Secondly “Vote LNP, ALP & Greens LAST” which leads to only two possibilities
– don’t vote for any of them rendering the vote informal in the HOR
– or voting the three last but in which order? As the most dissatisfaction appears to be with the LNP on a huge range of issues they may well get far more “Last” than the other two.
In my opinion this will most likely decide the election and with 2 weeks to go the polling companies aren’t even focusing on it !
Labor lost in 2013 because it made a sudden and unpopular leadership change in 2010, and had a very unpopular leader for three years. The LNP and the lazy Australian media have a vested interest in chalking it up to the Greens role in supporting Labor to be in government, but Labor doesn’t have to reinforce this myth. I think they do so because they would rather blame an external factor than themselves.
Nicholas
I don’t think. You can put money on it. The Greens are the Labor scapegoat for the minority government period. You can tell this by the fact that Mr Windsor and Mr Oakeshott worked just as closely but get no blame for their part in decisions by Labor supporters.
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 6:26 pm
DAVID P: I don’t donate. But if Labor only gets 70% green prefs, I will swim across a river of s… without a snorkle.
——
Touche !1 Thanks for the giggle –
https://amp.twimg.com/v/0d407fe5-1417-42e3-8d96-f993d9cf15ef
This is good – Chloe interviewing Bill
The pref flows WILL be different to 2013. That’s pretty much a given.
The point obviously is that we won’t know by how much and in which directions until at least 9pm July 2.
That being so using last election prefs is still probably fair enough seeing as nominated prefs don’t have a great track record in polling.
BUT, if the primaries in the polls are accurate (and I’m still sticking to my feelpinion that Labor is being significantly understated), then the sheer quantum of ‘others’ as well as their composition is unprecedented and even small changes from 2013 can completely change the result.
So anyone calling the election over based on the polls is full of shit. I am again sticking to my feelpinion that Labor will fall over the line, but there’s no way I would state with conviction that it was able to be shown in the polling.
It will be a fascinating last two weeks, and an even more fascinating count. Whilst I remain quietly confident, a small Lib win is obviously still in the game, but a hung parliament must be even more likely if the seat polling in places like Cowper and SA are close to right.
Jenauthor
The buffering on my PC makes this unwatchable.
Guytaur:
Yes it’s true that Rudd caused untold damage to the LAbor govt with his antics. However Labor’s alliance with the Greens in govt also did not help. Why do you think the Liberals are trying their hardest equate Labor with the Greens.
confessions @ #855 Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 6:25 pm
Wow! Confessions was born after June 2010. 😮
Confessions
No thats myth. We know this because the LNP are blaming Independents too. Labor supporters are not.
Sorry but Labor problems were mostly self inflicted and had nothing to do with the actual governing.
The blame being slated to working with the Greens only works if you say Gillard Combet Albanese were crap negotiators. I don’t subscribe tho this myth.
Is that meant to be a parody? Otherwise WTF?
Most PB’rs state that the 2010 to 2010 minority government was “one of the best”.
So, why “blame” anyone for a successful outcome? The big problems of those years were a highly biased press and “infighting” by the ALP themselves.
This time we still have a “highly biased press” but the ALP has remained unified throughout the last 3 years. Whilst I strongly disagree with some of the ALP actions as an opposition we cannot lose sight of one important aim – “kick the LNP out”. Everyone should be united in this including at least 80% of voters. Voting for the LNP is voting for a further erosion of the living standards built up by years of progressive action. We need a Senate made up to stop this happening and preferably an LNP defeat in the HOR.
fess
Did you see it in extreme slo-mo too?
Guytaur:
whatever. When you talk to actual real people, those being people outside those on your twitter feed you will find I am right. Labor cozying up to the Greens is bad news for the party. Therefore it’s best for LAbor to put itself at arm’s length from the Greens, esp when it comes to governing.
Both Labor and liberals SA senate vote was well below the HOR SA vote in 2013. People could vote there party and put x in senate. I think that this will happen again and the polling won’t pick it up.
Lizzie:
No it was normal speed for me.
I have a serious psephological question.
Are most major polls, such as Newspoll, conducted only over landlines?
If yes, maybe that’s why polling figures are much more weighted to older, more conservative voters, whereas younger Facebook progrssive are not being asked their opinion.
Perhaps Labor will romp home?
zoomster @ #746 Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 3:53 pm
confessions
I spoke about what I thought not what anyone else thought. Certainly not my twitterfeed.
Your resorting to that just proves I am right. You want to deflect the damage Labor did to itself by somehow blaming the fact it was a minority government.
Sorry the leadership soap opera started before the minority government. You are still not explaining why the Independents escape your ire when they were as much part of the decisions as the Gillard Team and the Greens.
The minority government was the best period of governing with the best policies in ages the NDIS being but one excellent one.
I don’t buy the myth. It was not minority government or working with the Greens. It was Labor the media and the LNP perfect storm that was why Labor lost government.
I’m not saying the Gillard minority government was a ‘disaster’, I’m happy to acknowledge Gillard’s achievements (NBN, Gonski, NDIS etc). But I acknowledge it was not popular with the electorate.
The truth is that the Greens use the out that it was the leadership divisions for the poor polling. But they ignore the fact that Labor did a much publicized deal with the Greens on the Carbon Tax, the polling slumped immediately with Labor primary vote dropping to 26% and the two party polling at 39%. The hope from the Gillard government was announcing early in the term the polling would improve and recover.
Julia Gillard never recovered. The longer the term went on the more speculation went about changing prime minsters, but Bob Brown caution Labor to hold it’s nerve. The polls never improved and the infighting took place. It’s true it wasn’t all about the Greens for Labor’s poor polling , but it was a factor in it.
silentmajority @ #878 Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 6:50 pm
Nope. They have quotas for each age group.
victoria @ #789 Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 4:53 pm
Insiders might be worth watching tomorrow. Getting Nick Xenophon on is a good move, and indicative of his importance in this election, at least for SA, and no doubt for the rest of the seats that NXT is contesting. I’ve never seen him in such a situation before, be interesting to see how he handles Barrie’s questions.
Don
Maybe he’ll turn up in his pajamas.
David
That deal with the Greens was on a carbon price and also was made with Windsor and Oakeshott.
The failure of selling the policy failed when Gillard gave the media the excuse not to call out Abbott on using the word tax for the price.
It was a unforeseen political blunder.
Unforeseen because no one predicted the media would attempt to redefine what a tax was. Even now Labor is fighting hard for a market mechanism not to be called a tax by the media.
None of that was Labor Green or Independents doing but the LNP and media.
The excuse for it was provided by Gillard.
However be in no doubt it was the media and the LNP only to blame for calling a market mechanism a tax.
I’ve added a BludgerTrack update to the post.
I have a question too. I’m doing some letterboxing for Labor tomorrow. Do we think pamphlets in letterboxes still work?
gorilla @ #887 Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 7:12 pm
I think any of these things only have an effect at the margin.
But when I have been handing out HTVs, I have had people complain about not getting any.
lizzie @ #868 Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 6:42 pm
Not just you. I have a mac and 25/5 access, and it still buffers far too much. The server is crap.
Why doesn’t Bill use Chloe in his campaign more often? She is gold.
gorilla @ #887 Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 7:12 pm
Not for me it doesn’t. I’ve made up my mind, and letter boxing is just extra paper for lighting the fire, and not very good lighting material at that. Too much glossy paper.
‘But when I have been handing out HTVs, I have had people complain about not getting any.’
Yeah, but what about the HTV cards?
Adrian
Good one. 🙂
With that smile on my dial I will say goodnight for now.
Yep, and insert the traitorous Rudd to whiteant on the back of this, on top of that the loud-mouthed Abbott who was never really subjected to any sustained scrutiny by our media at all during the period he was LOTO.
Interestingly the Liberals are spending a lot of money in Berowra. I’ve been sent in the mail a couple of glossy flyers from Julian Lesser, the guy succeeding Phil Ruddock.
Not that the Libs need to bother on the North Shore of Sydney, maybe it’s the senate vote they’re trying to maximise from this area?
They go straight into the recycle bin at my house. And I should add that the only pamphlets I ever get are from Liberals and Nationals both state and fed.
ABC news did point out that both sides agree that there’s a huge pool of disengaged/undecided voters out there, who could easily affect the result in 2 weeks if they go one way or the other.
https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/status/744093569271599104
Daniel Sandford @BBCDanielS
At Westminster Magistrates’ Court where Thomas Mair is making his first appearance accused of the murder of Jo Cox MP
7:05 PM – 18 Jun 2016
https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/status/744096403094409216
Daniel Sandford @BBCDanielS
Asked his name the defendant in the dock says “My name is death to traitors, freedom for Britain.”
7:16 PM – 18 Jun 2016
https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS
see more tweets here
Lots of factors played into the unrecoverable slump in ALP primary after the Carbon price was intro’d – Greens/party infighting and others – but one of the biggest was Abbott’s theatrics which so entertained/beguiled/mesmerised the media and by extension the electorate it caused left vote to collapse.
Abbott was the personification of the Trump-style dissatisfied opposition. Xenophon is another.
Abbott killed off ANY sane thinking last election and both sides paid/are paying for it.
Turnbull was heralded with such unrealistic expectation (and relief) there was no way he could sustain good will and be a ‘politician’.
ALP fell in a hole (despite all it’s countering of Abbott’s tactics) when Malcolm invaded the top job.
The thing that distinguishes ALP now is that they have stuck with sensible campaigning and proper process in order to bring politics back to a realistic balance.
Malcolm is resorting to Abbotising (this week esp.) because he sees it falling away. I am willing to bet the party’s own polling probably reflects that that Cassidy has talked about today and are trying to brave it out. Malcolm seems to be drowning – his message is as believable as a tattoo-artist who says ‘this isn’t going to hurt a bit’. His performance last night was forced – more forced than I expected.
Gorilla
If you can be bothered going the extra step(s) and doorknocking, that has real impact.
I don’t get people to letterbox, I prefer to pay the people who deliver for the supermarkets to do that, because I prefer to use my volunteers as doorknockers.