The latest weekly campaign poll for the Seven Network from ReachTEL has the Coalition hitting a lead of 51-49, following headline results of 50-50 in the last two polls and a 52-48 in favour of Labor three weeks ago. This week’s forced preference primary vote totals are Coalition 43.5% (up 0.8%), Labor 33.6% (up 0.4%), Greens 9.1% (down 0.8%) and Nick Xenophon Team 9.1% (down 0.8%). Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 55.4-44.6 to 57.6-42.4, but both leaders’ personal ratings are little changed: Turnbull goes from 28.3% to 27.4% on very good plus good and from 37.4% to 36.3% on poor plus very poor, while Shorten goes from 27.5% to 29.6% favourable and from 38.6% to 39.7% unfavourable. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2576.
A rather different set of results emerges this evening from the latest fortnightly campaign poll by Ipsos for the Fairfax papers. It records a dramatic increase in the minor party vote, with both the Coalition and Labor down three points, to 39% and 33% respectively. Most of the yield goes to “others”, up four points to 14%, with the Greens up one to 14%. This cancels out on two-party preferred, which is unchanged at 51-49 in Labor’s favour on both the respondent-allocated and previous-election two-party preferred measures. The major parties’ loss of support isn’t reflected in the personal ratings, with both leaders up two on approval (47% for Malcolm Turnbull, 43% for Bill Shorten) and steady on disapproval (42% for Turnbull, 47% for Shorten). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 49-31 to 48-34. The live interview phone poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1437.
ReachTEL’s weekly marginal seat poll is a disappointing result for Labor, showing Liberal member Ken Wyatt retaining a 53-47 lead in his eastern Perth seat of Hasluck, suggesting a modest swing to Labor of 3%. Forced preference primary vote results are 46.1% for Ken Wyatt (46.2% at the 2013 election, post-redistribution) and 32.6% for Labor candidate Bill Leadbetter (29.2% for Labor in 2013). The Greens are on 13.5%, up from 10.7% in 2013, much of which comes from the forced response follow-up question asked of the undecided. The Greens got 10.9% on the first round question, but 21.1% of those who responded as undecided favoured the Greens on the follow up. The two-party headline is from respondent-allocated preferences, but 2013 election preferences would have produced the same result. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 753.
Also:
• A ReachTEL poll commissioned by GetUp! suggests Rob Oakeshott is looking competitive in his bid to unseat Nationals member Luke Hartsuyker in the seat of Cowper in the Mid North Coast region of New South Wales. Inclusive of forced preferences, the primary votes are Hartsuyker 42.6%, Oakeshott 25.6%, Labor 14.0%, Greens 8.4%, Christian Democrats 4.5%, others 4.9%. Hartsuyker would likely get over the line after preferences on those numbers, but only by a few per cent. The poll was conducted on Monday from a sample of 842.
• Roy Morgan has released details results of its polling conducted from April to June in South Australia – a little too detailed in fact, since results are provided at electorate level from samples of only 180 each. Taken in aggregate, the Nick Xenophon Team is at 21.5% statewide, which would score them three seats based on Kevin Bonham’s modelling. There is no clear indication of major geographical variation in the NXT vote, as was the case with Xenophon’s Senate vote in 2013.
• Another Morgan report repeats the electorate-level voting intention exercise for the seven seats recording the highest levels of Greens support, which suggests their primary vote to be slightly higher than Labor’s across Melbourne, Batman and Wills, but a) it’s hard to read much into this given the sample size, and b) Morgan has long been reporting excessive-looking results for the Greens. The report also tells us that Labor led 51-49 in Morgan’s regular polling over the fortnight, unchanged on the previous result, which didn’t get the usual published result this week for some reason.
UPDATE: Here is an update of BludgerTrack with the two latest polls, whose peculiarities have essentially cancelled each other out. The Coalition is up a seat in Queensland, but down two in New South Wales.
C. Pyne was at the Norwood v Central District SA National Football League match at Norwoof Oval today . Not sure but he may have tossed the coin and also promised a poultice of money for Norwood’s new clubrooms.
Very few at the match, about 2,000, and the h0me team lost.
zoomster @ #900 Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 7:30 pm
You must be well resourced to have paid letterboxers.
Also, not all volunteers are prepared to doorknock , but I certainly agree it is more effective than something in the letterbox.
Straight into the bin at Chateau Bushfire. We both got one and didn’t even spare the time to glance at it.
Trashed.
Zoomster
This is the first time I have volunteered – I just do as directed!
Jesus, sounds like Malcolm is going to spend the next two weeks telling us that every vote counts. Who woulda thunk it. He’s really saying that “if you dummies bother to think, you’ll vote for us.”
I got the Berowra flyers too(get in the bin!). Not many corflutes around though, from anyone.
ratsak
Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 6:24 pm
In response to the latest polling Richmond Greens candidate Dawn Walker issued a statement today stating the party had the “chance to make history in the northern rivers”.
http://m.tweeddailynews.com.au/news/labor-and-greens-poll-ahead-nats-richmond/3047786/
Er, what? Would it be historic for the Gs to come second but lose on 2PP by at least 60-40% ?
————————–
Walker must be fantasising about the Greens and LNP taking first and second spot on first preferences, then winning on the back of Labor second preferences.
“Polling predicted ALP with 30.5 points, Greens with 29, LNP with 27, and others with 13.5 “ which represents an 11% swing to the Greens in that The State of the Nation Report.
I can’t see Labor slipping to third on first preferences, but stranger things will happen in this election in seats like this where 42.5 % of those polled are NOT backing the two majors as a first choice, apparently
Labor have adopted John Quiggin’s idea of allowing “state governments to collect criminal fines through the tax and welfare systems (as with HECS debts and child support), rather than jailing defaulters as at present.” Andrew Leigh announced the policy on the 16th.
Interestingly, Quiggin also noted that the IPA came out in support of Labor’s proposal. He wrote:
http://johnquiggin.com/2016/06/18/a-better-way-of-collecting-fines/
Isn’t it obvious hat a large part of the initial Turnbull popularity was that he plainly isn’t batshit insane like he bloke who preceded him?
C. Pyne was at Norwood Oval today for a SA National Football League match betweenNorwood and Central District. I think he tossed the coin and offered a poultice for Norwood’s new clubrooms if he’s re-elected.
Sadly, the home team lost.
Is this a fair assessment of the Turnbull Government?:
It railed against debt and deficit, then tripled the deficit in just three years.
It flogged off Medibank Private to profiteers and now has the same fate in mind for Medibank itself.
It is happily reading the last rites over the remnants of the Australian car industry.
It is giving tax cuts to big business rather than investing in health and education.
It is installing a rust-bucket NBN that will cost a motza to maintain and replace.
It is applying Bandaids to the dying Great Barrier Reef.
It squibbed a parliamentary vote on marriage equality, instead opting for an expensive, divisive plebiscite.
Well navel-gazing nematodes… the marginal seat betting situation I reported two weeks ago seems to have firmed with official polls. The ALP seems very unlikely to get the net increase near 20. At present it looks unlikely to be half that amount.
Shorten has capitulated, jettisoned previous staunch objections to savings measures and has effectively belled the cat on asylum seekers. It is reasonably clear that the ALP realises that winning is not the achievable dream that perhaps it might have been under Tony Abbott.
This is probably a good thing. Bill is a natural pragmatist (“I agree with whatever Julia Gillard has said about the matter”) and has had no problem doing complete backflips on boat policy, school kids bonus, penalty rates and not replacing the ‘billions’ ripped out of the health system.
Turnbull is hardly better. Toeing a very conservative line in order to keep his party somewhat unified during an election, but certainly a long was from stated principles on climate change and gay marriage.
On this basis, it is hardly surprising that NXT is doing well. The Australian public has an appetite for a third party which is more centrist. NXT is about the closest thing since the Don Chipp’s Democrats in the 70s. Looks to be an interesting election on that front but the ALP is dead in the water in this election.
Of course, as usual, I expect the usual (rather ridiculous) claims in this room of Labor winning 80-100 seats, whilst chortling at my suggestions that it may be closer to 68-72 seats. Still two weeks out, we shall see. Bill shorten would make a pretty ordinary PM though. Still better than either of the last two ALP PMs though.
😉
Ratsak –
Footnote : That was a Morgan poll which has all almost aggressive ‘house’ bias toward the Greens which William and others I pay attention to have often shown in Morgan’s DNA. I won’t be paying much attention to it.
TT:
This govt has been the worst govt in my lifetime if not forever.
Corflutes are up for both Barnaby Joyce and Tony Windsor in the New England area.
The ones Barnaby’s volunteers put up on power poles were taken down by electricity employees, you’re not supposed to do that.
Trees are fine, power poles are not.
There are plenty of RWNJ lone killers. Are there very many LWNJ lone killers?
bluepill @ #912 Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 7:50 pm
And you are trying to get us to read further?
Crawl back under the rock you came from.
TT @ 911
Gutted CSIRO.
Defunded hundreds of small community organisations.
Stacked many boards with fellow travellers, including a few dozen in one go just before the election was called.
Militarising the shit out of everything.
bk @ #916 Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 7:59 pm
Seems unlikely!
Mahatma Gandhi was not noted for his skills with an AK47 or similar.
115/110 = +4.5%
cupidstunt @ #830 Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 5:45 pm
and will do everything they can to prevent future Labor governments from ever being able to do so.
don
Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 7:57 pm
Corflutes are up for both Barnaby Joyce and Tony Windsor in the New England area.
The ones Barnaby’s volunteers put up on power poles were taken down by electricity employees, you’re not supposed to do that.
Trees are fine, power poles are not.
GO FIGURE
Trashed convention and bipartisanship.
Also, we shouldn’t call it the Turnbull government, it is the Abbott-Turnbull government, until Mal wins in his own right.
BLUEY BULLETIN 83 DAY
FAT LADY CLEARS THROAT
Bluey reckons it is not over yet…
CITY V FRANKFURT
Bluey has been waiting patiently for this to come up and it finally made it into a Kohler article. Bluey listens to the Brits talking about Brexit and it is all self-referential. The Leavers truly believe that they can Brexit and then approach the EU for a great new deal and the best of both worlds. Bluey reckons that the Leavers are talking through their bums. The Germans will go all out to ensure that Frankfurt picks up what the City drops. Bluey reckons that probably the first mini-crisis a new Australian government will face will be Brexit.
DOING THE NANA
Griggs and Robert, again. Not cool.
LIAR
Bluey is impressed with Mr Turnbull’s willingness to misrepresent stuff. Bluey reckons that we simply cannot trust what comes from between his lips. Treasury is only the latest to gainsay Mr Turnbull big time.
Verdict for the day: Evens
Cumulative Tally: Labor 52.5 Liberals 35.5
So totally hope Bluey is right here.
Evening bludgers.
I’m about to fly out to Genoa for a week -business, not pleasure. If it’s not too much bother, could you havw Labor in an election-winning poll position by my return next Sunday?
Ta.
Bw
More Turnbull weasel words when he said they had no modeling.
‘They’ (the politicians) just had a briefing note telling them the outcome of Treasury modeling …
It’s the same as ‘We have no plan to …’
The Unabomber was definitely left wing.
“Bill shorten would make a pretty ordinary PM though.”
@Bluepill
What have you said is Crud. The fact that Bill Shorten has been able to cut through after Turnbull’s honeymoon effect is significant in itself. Labor didn’t sit in on it hands and do nothing, it started releasing policies and forcing Malcolm Turnbull to respond. Policies that were bold and that were going to face resistance and have critics.
Some media commentators have said that Labor releasing these policies have taken risks. They did, but they also had nothing to lose. Turnbull honeymoon polling was showing a bigger landslide then the previous election. Shorten had to role the dice because he had no other choice.
This is a very hard election to win. I love these arm chair critics thinking they could do better.
diogenes @ #928 Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 8:23 pm
Wasn’t he just nuts?
A left wing-nut apparently.
bemused @ #702 Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 2:33 pm
The door-knocking team today comprised 16. This included 5 males, 11 females. The females mostly were in their 20’s, mostly union members and mostly from the neighbourhood in which we were campaigning. The median age of the whole team would have been under 30, the average in the high 30’s. The only G voter I met was about 45 yo. I’ve yet to run across a G-volunteer (or a Lib).
The young female campaigners are outstanding.
Bluepill:
It must rankle that Gillard was a vastly superior PM than Abbott, and a way more effective PM than Turnbull. Yes Rudd did his best to bring her low, but she still has the runs on the board in terms of seeing Labor’s policy platform into legislative reality that messrs Rudd, Abbott and Turnbull can only dream of.
Silmaj Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 6:50 pm
It could happen against to some extent but with Xenophon getting excellent lower house numbers the difference might not be to big.
Michael McCormack flyers (there’s been a few of them) go straight to the recycle bin.
Nats must be cashed-up if they’re splashing out in Riverina.
Not a word from old mate Heffernan in Junee… which is most unusual.
Pity McCormack can’t be recycled. Not very bright he is.
Edi_mahin
The people in SA that I’ve spoken to have great faith in X. They also like the fact that they can vote for their party and put X in senate. This time they can put X in both. I think that a majority will still put X in one and their own party in the other. This is the first time I would think that the pollsters have given X as an option. So if my theory is right they are saying X to the pollster but on voting day they will put him in on or the other.
guytaur @ #861 Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 6:30 pm
The biggest obstacle to future Labor-G collaboration is not the past. It is the G’s themselves. As long as the G’s campaign against Labor (dido/yiyo), they should expect Labor to stand entirely apart from them.
Put him in one or the other
I really liked the Chloe/Bill video – much better than the sepia halo of bulldust wafting all through Waffles With Truffles’ “Once Upon A Time I Even Shared A Rental” hagiography….
Don, I don’t know you. You may or may not be a nematode. I also don’t care what you read and what you don’t. This lot resemble a cult in their irrational fanaticism. Anything you say against the ALP apparently makes you an ‘evil Fib’. Hahaha.
David. No, your opinion is wrong, I would suggest. Anyone who sells out workers to glean a bit of butter for the union instead is not fit to be a member of the ALP, let alone representing the entire Australian workforce, most of which is long disillusioned with unions.
Shorten has blood on his hands from toppling two PMs and I still have no idea what he really stands for. Turnbull believes in stuff but won’t act on it. That provides more certainty than Bill. On balance, that might be (marginally) better.
Bill Shorten waxes lyrical about the ‘money ripped from the health system’ (that we now realise, now that we have lived through the last few years that the ALP could never have delivered). Instead of the much touted 57 Billion being replaced by the ALP, we see 2. 2 Billion dollars. Less than 4% replacement from the ‘party of health’. That is just woeful.
The ALP constantly underestimates how much the average punter can see through the lies and mistruths. ‘ $100, 000 degrees’ (seriously??), ‘the coalition will axe medicare’ (oh, really?), ’51 Billion for big business’ (a straight out lie… voters can usually read in Australia’.
How do you think a voter feels every time they discover that a Labor mantra is actually a lie, exaggeration or cherry-picked piece of warm poo? They.don’t.trust.you.
Of course, the Nematodes in this room think the ALP can do no wrong and their polarised thinking can only make sense out of my ‘rants’ if I am a stooge for the coalition…. hahaha…. which I am not. Not that it matters one bit.
Another election where the cultists have their ‘certain’ predictions dashed… but stick with the cult anyway.
The ALP is slowly dying. Memberships are down. The Greens are cannibalising seats that the Coalition doesn’t take. Fewer people know what they stand for anymore and union membership remains in decline.
guytaur @ #864 Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 6:38 pm
W & O did not spend most of the time since 2010 campaigning against Labor, unlike the G’s who make it their everyday trade.
Silmaj, if that happens then he will not get much of anything. He is relying on people who voted for him in the senate to vote for him in the lower house seats and on getting more votes as well. First time I have heard that suggested, but I guess it could happen.
C
Bluey reckons it is time to fight them on the beaches.
CTaR1
Chap’s a cad.
nicholas @ #824 Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 5:37 pm
Not content with trying to tell Labor what to do, the G’s think they should tell X what to do as well. Remarkable.
Briefly
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-18/former-labor-cowan-candidate-tristan-cockman-lashes-out/7523290
Most door knocking these days I would associate with beige clothing, hats, umbrellas, and a small leaflet from above.
re: left v right probability of becoming political killers, it all depends on how far back you go.
Brutus&Co were left wing, for example.
I suspect that, to stop Malcolm falling apart, Lib Central told him he was winning handsomely. That pepped him up for a while and he got all cocky. Now he’s realised that, in fact, he’s coxing an eight up shit creek and he’s almost dropping to his knees and begging people for their vote. Dunno if he’ll make it to the line.
If the Greens are going to fight for votes on the left wing of politics they can not be surprised or complain when the Labor Party fights back.
The Labor Party has no special claim on any left wing votes and needs to sell themselves better to Greens supporters if they want to maintain control over the left wing of Australian politics.
CTaR1
I bet they were nasty towards him at school as well.