The latest weekly campaign poll for the Seven Network from ReachTEL has the Coalition hitting a lead of 51-49, following headline results of 50-50 in the last two polls and a 52-48 in favour of Labor three weeks ago. This week’s forced preference primary vote totals are Coalition 43.5% (up 0.8%), Labor 33.6% (up 0.4%), Greens 9.1% (down 0.8%) and Nick Xenophon Team 9.1% (down 0.8%). Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 55.4-44.6 to 57.6-42.4, but both leaders’ personal ratings are little changed: Turnbull goes from 28.3% to 27.4% on very good plus good and from 37.4% to 36.3% on poor plus very poor, while Shorten goes from 27.5% to 29.6% favourable and from 38.6% to 39.7% unfavourable. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2576.
A rather different set of results emerges this evening from the latest fortnightly campaign poll by Ipsos for the Fairfax papers. It records a dramatic increase in the minor party vote, with both the Coalition and Labor down three points, to 39% and 33% respectively. Most of the yield goes to “others”, up four points to 14%, with the Greens up one to 14%. This cancels out on two-party preferred, which is unchanged at 51-49 in Labor’s favour on both the respondent-allocated and previous-election two-party preferred measures. The major parties’ loss of support isn’t reflected in the personal ratings, with both leaders up two on approval (47% for Malcolm Turnbull, 43% for Bill Shorten) and steady on disapproval (42% for Turnbull, 47% for Shorten). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 49-31 to 48-34. The live interview phone poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1437.
ReachTEL’s weekly marginal seat poll is a disappointing result for Labor, showing Liberal member Ken Wyatt retaining a 53-47 lead in his eastern Perth seat of Hasluck, suggesting a modest swing to Labor of 3%. Forced preference primary vote results are 46.1% for Ken Wyatt (46.2% at the 2013 election, post-redistribution) and 32.6% for Labor candidate Bill Leadbetter (29.2% for Labor in 2013). The Greens are on 13.5%, up from 10.7% in 2013, much of which comes from the forced response follow-up question asked of the undecided. The Greens got 10.9% on the first round question, but 21.1% of those who responded as undecided favoured the Greens on the follow up. The two-party headline is from respondent-allocated preferences, but 2013 election preferences would have produced the same result. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 753.
Also:
• A ReachTEL poll commissioned by GetUp! suggests Rob Oakeshott is looking competitive in his bid to unseat Nationals member Luke Hartsuyker in the seat of Cowper in the Mid North Coast region of New South Wales. Inclusive of forced preferences, the primary votes are Hartsuyker 42.6%, Oakeshott 25.6%, Labor 14.0%, Greens 8.4%, Christian Democrats 4.5%, others 4.9%. Hartsuyker would likely get over the line after preferences on those numbers, but only by a few per cent. The poll was conducted on Monday from a sample of 842.
• Roy Morgan has released details results of its polling conducted from April to June in South Australia – a little too detailed in fact, since results are provided at electorate level from samples of only 180 each. Taken in aggregate, the Nick Xenophon Team is at 21.5% statewide, which would score them three seats based on Kevin Bonham’s modelling. There is no clear indication of major geographical variation in the NXT vote, as was the case with Xenophon’s Senate vote in 2013.
• Another Morgan report repeats the electorate-level voting intention exercise for the seven seats recording the highest levels of Greens support, which suggests their primary vote to be slightly higher than Labor’s across Melbourne, Batman and Wills, but a) it’s hard to read much into this given the sample size, and b) Morgan has long been reporting excessive-looking results for the Greens. The report also tells us that Labor led 51-49 in Morgan’s regular polling over the fortnight, unchanged on the previous result, which didn’t get the usual published result this week for some reason.
UPDATE: Here is an update of BludgerTrack with the two latest polls, whose peculiarities have essentially cancelled each other out. The Coalition is up a seat in Queensland, but down two in New South Wales.
Edi-Mahin
His senate vote will increase but I doubt the HOR will match it.
bluepill @ #940 Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 8:56 pm
Not in WA. Membership is rising. Volunteer recruitment has been incredibly strong. Union activism is stronger too. Labor is alive and well in the west.
Confessions… Nothing rankles me, politically. I just study it.
Sure I vote and I have mostly voted right of centre but I am far more interested in voter behaviour and party member behaviour. Oh, and the statistical superiority of seat betting markets over political polling for predicting election outcomes.
Gillard was, according to most, a very successful negotiator (I would certainly agree) and far more skilled at running a hung parliament than I think Tony Abbott, Kevin Rudd, Malcolm Turnbull or Bill Shorten would have been (in order of increasing success, as listed). However, I think she was politically naive and too prone to play ‘cheap cards’ (like the misogynist card and abortionist card) when painted into a political corner.
That is what I am expecting, more senate votes and a very strong performances in lower house seats. However if what I think you are saying is right that people are saying Xenophon to pollsters but planning on only voting for him in the senate then he could under perform his polling numbers by a large amount.
Reality check. Could labor have gone any lower in WA? Well I suppose they could have no federal seats.
ctar1 @ #945 Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 9:04 pm
This is sad. I know the person concerned and think he’s mistaken in substance. It’s also very sad that he’s chosen to ventilate his thoughts in public. This cannot serve his interests. It cannot serve Labor. And it cannot serve the people of Cowan.
I am sorry, my quickly typed English can be appallingly bad and I do not double check it enough.
Edi-Mahin
I get that from family and friends who have said it’s sort of a thing down in SA . It’s a kind of bet each way.
A glance at William’s latest PB seat forecast showing LNP 75 OTHERS 75. This is getting serious for the LNP.
victoria @ #789 Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 4:53 pm
Mr Cassidy confirms my belief that basing preference flows on how they went last election is just not a viable method of calculating TPP in an election like this.
If my belief holds true a lot of commentators, pundits and psephologists are going to be busy on July 3 washing egg off their faces.
I just cannot accept that, given the nature of this election, allocating preferences based on last election is a viable method of calculating TPP.
I am however prepared to believe it if (and I do mean if) someone can come up with a convincing argument as to why it is a good method.
Saying “it worked in the past” is not going to convince anyone, least of all me. This is not a normal election. It is nothing like the last one, or any of the ones before that.
So, go ahead. Convince me.
Just been checking my twitter feed, if the mood reflected there is carried through to July2 I forecast ALP 120, Grn 20, Indie 10, LNP 0.
Now perhaps I have a self selected twitter feed of 924 people I choose to follow, but we have never had an election with socal media so dominant amongst certain demographics. Very few under 30 have landlines, read newspapers and increasingly, watch any TV.
Ahhhh….the blue idiot back. You really do need to look up the word “context” before you make petty little comments like that. reinforced the impression of you as true fwarking dill.
Bluepill has crystal balls. He thinks he can see how the membership of the ALP is going whilst not being of the party. I think his balls are blue and it is affecting his vision. Membership of the ALP where I am from in NSW is going up, not down. Plenty of young people. Plenty of middle aged people. Plenty of retirees.
It’s such a pity when your vision is clouded by your preconceived notions and biases. It renders all else that you say meaningless.
My understanding is that, historically, last election prefs work. I have a suspicion they will largely work this time as well, except in SA, and no-one is calling that.
And in fact, we still have 2 weeks to go, 25% of the campaign, so calling the election at all is dodgy. I am taking the hung thing more seriously now though.
Cockman by name cockman by nature
Greens preferences may well emulate the Qld election and flow stronger than usual 85%+ to ALP as thoughtful Greens weigh up the alternatives (especially Malcolm and Hunt disappointing approach to climate change and clean energy).
Offsetting this though has been the aggressive negativity toward the Greens by the ALP which may influence some Greens the other way. However the preference how to vote card arrangements show cool heads prevailing on the left side with ALP and Greens mostly supporting the option of maximising the left vote against the LNP.
I will be disappointed if Bill doesn’t get up as he certainly deserves it given the campaign he has run.
Turnbull promised to adopt an approach which included the people in the debate but it has been Bill that has used the refreshing more honest approach to policy. Turnbull has resorted to his predecessors untruths and scare tactics about national security which is really pathetic to Green voters like me…
Yep, my branch – after many, many years of struggling to even get a quorum – has doubled in membership over the last few years.
Cant watch the rugby anymore.
Thank dog for the hockey.
I wonder how LNP memberships are going lately?
c@tmomma @ #963 Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 9:39 pm
Bravo!!
Some commentator on TV yesterday said Aussies don’t like a Coalition in Government hence the LNP are banging on about an ALP/Green coalition. Well what’s the LNP – a Coalition – it’s their name ever since Menzies.
ALP v’s Lib about equal ! Greens v’s Nats way out in front. So Aussies will get used to a centre-left coalition regardless of how it works. The nasties in the LNP could never work with any others. Abbott proved that!
When I did the ALP phone calls for Hindmarsh last week all but two of us were younguns, and a lot were uni students, including ones in the Whitlam Club at Flinders Uni.
Just been reading Michael Gordon’scolumn in The Age here…
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/malcolm-turnbulls-biggest-test-of-the-campaign-20160617-gplkwy.html
…and it finally hit home what the Penalty Rates declaration on Facebook was the other day: Turnbull pretty desperately seeking to bind his party to something, anything. A Captain’s Pick. The moderator, Joe Hildebrand, claimed Turnbull’s promise as something new… “news”.
IT was a surprise announcement out of the blue. There has been no indication that the Coalition would leave Penalty Rates alone in the next three years. Turnbull’s announcemnt went outside the envelope.
Gordon wrote that Turnbull would have to charm the room on this coming Monday’s Q&A. If he comes out with any more surprises, that will be a sign he’s getting very nervous about July 2. I think he is already.
bluepill @ #953 Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 9:16 pm
lol
FPMJG was not in a corner on the occasion of her admonition of Tony Abbott. He looked totally dumb-struck by JG’s barrage. There is one very good thing to do with sexism and that is to name it. For some time afterwards, Abbott seemed at a loss for words. His swagger failed him for several weeks; until he got the chance to play dress-ups again.
AUSDAVO – The danger for the libs is that if it looks like Malcolm is just going to limp back in (and have no authority in the party-room) the electorate may well decide to tip him overboard. I’ve always thought he had to be a handsome front-runner, and it’s not looking like that.
PMJG’s misogyny speech was powerful, awe-inspiring and historic. There is a reason it reverberated around the world and women plus men responded to it with such connection.
I can still replay the words in my head and they sound as powerful now as they did then. She depowered the Abbott bully, and cemented her place in the ranks of remarkable women who fought back against entrenched misogyny. As a woman, for me, it was the most inspiring, powerful speech I have ever heard and it was my privilege to see it live.
This is priceless! Go the Guerilla Grannies of Wentworth and Warringah!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/06/17/malcolms-makeover-group-hijacks-turnbull-campaign-posters-in-w/
the $50 billion that turnbull is giving away in tax cuts to companies was challenged by a journo in a question to Shorten.
Shorten replied that they were Treasury costings and asked the journo if the libs were questioning Treasury costings.
Mentioned to friends that $30 billion was headed overseas and a great amount of that to overseas governments such as the USA who required companies to pay them the difference in tax rates. where they were taxed at a lower rate in Australia.
In effect, foreign aid to 1st world countries, for which turnbull is ripping $80 billion out of health and education.
The cuts to health and education to give tax cuts to overseas companies is starting to make an impact.
As is turnbulls statement today that he would let unis charge what they want for certain degrees. Lot of anger on uni campuses over abbotts $100,00 degrees and turnbull is keeping that alive.
It’s going to be pouring with rain tomorrow in Sydney for the Labor Campaign Launch!
zoomster @ #967 Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 9:44 pm
Same here in Durack.
nicholas @ #591 Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 12:07 pm
This is most particularly pertinent to the G’s, who rely more heavily than others on public funding.
Don’t know which way it will go on July 2 .
But turnbull has been PM for nine months has not done anything that shows any leadership or authority or policies.
[and it finally hit home what the Penalty Rates declaration on Facebook was the other day]
And on the same day Mickela Cash was saying she could not give any guarantees that individual workplace agreements would not come back in, thus allowing penalty rates to be bargained away as they were with Work Choices.
No authority, no leadership, no policies.
imacca @ #964 Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 9:40 pm
My understanding is that, historically, last election prefs work. I have a suspicion they will largely work this time as well, except in SA, and no-one is calling that.
That was my point. This election is like no other, so what worked in past elections cannot be viable for this one. We have possibly entered a new paradigm. the old rules are no longer valid.
I did ask for reasons other than “it worked in the past” as well.
The problem for Malcolm is that it’s finally obvious he has no policies and voters can’t make excuses for him anymore. That could be bad news for the Wentworth Gelding.
C@Tmomma #977 Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 10:19 pm\
Good to see the environmentalists ramping up their campaign against Fizza. Depending on the result old Jelly Belly will be lucky to last a month as leader.
[PMJG’s misogyny speech was powerful, awe-inspiring and historic. There is a reason it reverberated around the world and women plus men responded to it with such connection.]
Was one of the great speeches Puff, my daughters were entranced by it, my brother living overseas rang me about it asking how it went down here. Told him that most of the press here ignored it.
Misogynists don’t like being called out and unfortunately we have more than our fair share of them here.
The Libs have policies alright. They just have no intention once again of telling the mug punters what they plan. They’re not going to just throw it away through that sort of stupidity. Of course once re-elected they will claim a “mandate”.
Fact – ALP membership in Qld is on a steady rise after a big increase in about 2012.
Fact- the LNP relies on paid students to hand out HTV at polling booths.
I assume it is indoors, Catmomma?!?
A chap turned up at door today with a petition against any privatisation of Medicare. He was from Jenny Macklin’s office and of course we signed it.
After he left I got to thinking what a great exercise in grassroots politics that is – taking the message directly to the people that the Liberals are itching to get their claws into Medicare. It is bound to be effective and I just hope it is happening all around Australia.
My impression is that last election preferences work when those distributing them are known quantities, ie longer standing groups such as Greens, Christians, CEC, etc. This probably followed a similar pattern for a decade or so. They appear to be far more problematic to calculate when a new force suddenly emerges eg NXT – or suddenly disperses eg PUP. That is a double dose of uncertainty this time.
Has anyone mentioned the treacherous way Turnbull brutally knifed Abbott lately?
“Paaptsef
#993 Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 10:50 pm
Has anyone mentioned the treacherous way Turnbull brutally knifed Abbott lately?”
———————-
Yes very popular move that – pity his momentum didn’t carry through. Of course you could say it was a tad destabilising to oust a sitting PM first term.
I can’t see myself voting for the Greens Qld second candidate (ex Democrat AB). Can’t I give Larissa 2 votes?
[ Yes very popular move that ]
Something about failing to provide economic leadership eh?
Sportsbet – the only seat where Labor’s odds have improved since yesterday is Burt.
My prediction for tomorrow – News 24 cuts the broadcast of the Labor launch for a Turnball news conference.
Darn – Labor should hammer the Medicare thing for the next 2 weeks, that and Gonski.
“Something about failing to provide economic leadership eh?”
————————-
Economics isn’t something this government should be campaigning on given their results. We need to see more of Cormann the Terminator with smoking gun (sorry cigar) in hand.
— Maybe Tony broke a few election promises occasionally – but hey he ate whole onions – true leadership.