ReachTEL has produced another lineball result on two-party preferred for the Seven Network, which stays at 50-50 after moving from 52-48 in Labor’s favour the week before. However, the poll offers some encouragement for the Coalition in having them up and Labor down on the primary vote for the second week in a row, and the two-party result would have rounded to 52-48 in their favour if 2013 election preference flows were applied, as ReachTEL did until quite recently. Labor was able to retain parity in the headline result through a still greater flow of respondent-allocated minor party and independent preferences, which already looked stronger than plausible.
Labor did particularly poorly this week (and to a lesser extent last week) on the forced response follow-up question for the undecided, on which they failed to crack 20%. With the result of the follow-up question integrated into the total, the primary votes are 42.7% for the Coalition (up 1.2%), 33.2% for Labor (down 1.7%), 9.9% for the Greens (down 0.2%) and 4.5% for the Nick Xenophon Team (down 0.5%). On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull’s combined very good and good rating is up from 26.3% to 28.3%, and poor plus very poor is down from 40.8% to 37.4%. Shorten is down on both measures, from 29.0% to 27.5% on the former and 39.6% to 38.6% on the latter, and Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is effectively unchanged, down from 55.6-44.4 to 55.4-44.6. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2175, which is on the low side by ReachTEL’s standards.
Of perhaps even greater interest than the national result is the regular weekly supplementary marginal seat poll, which credits the Andrea Broadfoot of the Nick Xenophon Team with a 54-46 two-party lead over Liberal member Rowan Ramsay in the electorate of Grey, which covers South Australia’s “iron triangle” of Whyalla, Port Augusta and Port Pirie, together with the state’s remote areas. Inclusive of the forced preference results, the primary votes are Liberal 39.4%, Nick Xenophon Team 32.7%, Labor 14.5% and Greens 5.5%, with around three-quarters of preferences flowing to Broadfoot. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 665.
UPDATE: BludgerTrack updated with the ReachTEL result below. As BludgerTrack is going off 2013 election preferences, it’s treating this poll as being close to 52-48 in the Coalition’s favour, and there has accordingly been a significant shift in that direction on two-party preferred. However, it’s only yielded one extra seat on the seat projection because of some fairly substantial changes in the state-level results. This is because I’ve only just now added the state results for the last two ReachTEL polls, because their new practice of reporting undecided results presented an accounting difficulty that I’ve only now attended to. The inclusion of these numbers has makes little difference in New South Wales, pares the Coalition back in Queensland, and inflates them in the other four states. In seat terms, this knocks three off their tally in Queensland, and adds two in Western Australia (corrected what looked like an excessive result there earlier) and one each in Victoria and Tasmania.
fess
Definitely a step up. The paper said he was an upstanding member (of the Church).
CTar1
She seems a bit lost as shadow FA’s. Better to give her something domestic.
I am sure if Labor wins she will be worthy of a good position – she is very likeable.
From the Reachtel blog today about primaries and the 2PP in last night’s poll:
victoria @ #526 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 4:32 pm
I don’t understand the disconnect between anecdotal evidence that Shorten is going gangbusters, while the polls make it neck and neck.
Tricot
Adverse ‘ Global economic headwinds’ is something I’m very over.
Boerwar
Maybe I don’t have as much faith in the good judgement of the electors as some..after all they perceive the Liberals to be better economic managers despite a mountain of evidence to the contrary
Plibers is debating JBish soon.
FWIW, my judgement is that Plibers has matured remarkably over the past couple of years. She used to have a rep of being a bit of whinger and sooky with her staff, and her public persona had a vague air of S H-Y whingy disgruntlement about it.
I don’t know whether Plibers has improved her staff management relationships but she has dispensed with this in public and is now quiet, rational and quite deadly in her discourse.
I used to think that she would be hopeless as PM.
I now think that if she keeps maturing, she might be a goer.
CTaR1
Yep. Morrison and Turnbull have settled nicely into good cop/bad cop routine. Labor do not have a Morrison rabies-infected attack dog version.
Don
Shorten needs a uniform national swing of around 4.1% to win government. That is around twice the average swing against first year Federal governments. Apart from that the swings are not going uniform and the Liberals have spent just short of $2 billion sand bagging marginal. While there is a remarkable amount of confusion about the polling in the marginals there is plenty of evidence to allow for the firm conclusion that any swing will be far from uniform.
Then there is shit luck. In the absence of Mr X, Labor could have looked forward to picking up three or four House seats in SA. Now they are looking forward to hanging onto what they already have.
Figures. It’s my experience that those who force their moral judgement onto others are invariably the first to get caught out behaving in morally questionable fashion.
I think Plibersik should be given something local that she bite into.
Andrew Leigh seems to be spare at the moment. He could do the FA job.
Confessions
Help me out here. You are younger than my prudish generation so I am trying to figure out if it is me, mad males or a generational thing.
Does any woman, young or old actually get any pleasure or titillationj from seeing a guys peices in a glass of wine or being wanked.
What is it with these self obsessed males that think that their anatomy is any more interesting than seeing a boil on someone’s bum?
Boerwar, not sure that is correct. Without NXT Labour would have picked up Hindmarsh and probably still will. I don’t believe NXT has any real chance in Hindmarsh. However they would not have won Mayo, Sturt, Grey or Barker. Boothby would have been a possible pick up but not certain. What might hurt Labour is if they lose Port Adelaide but I doubt that will happen. It is in the senate where NXT is going to limit Labour’s potential growth in seats much more.
“CTar1
She seems a bit lost as shadow FA’s. Better to give her something domestic.
I am sure if Labor wins she will be worthy of a good position – she is very likeable.”
I just think the portfolio is just not that prominent right now. Notice Julie Bishop has not been in the limelight much regarding Foreign Affairs either. There is no guarantees that a Labor government everybody will remain in their portfolios- but I haven’t heard anything about Tanay Pilbersek being shifted elsewhere either. Nor has there been any criticism from politcal commentators about her performance.
I can’t speak for every woman, but this woman certainly does not. My view is that the way a man behaves towards women says it all about the kind of man he is, and the kind of man who texts photos of his private parts (whether they’re in a glass of wine or a fist) is no man I’d ever want anything to do with.
Maybe Plibersek is supervising her small boys to make sure they don’t kill The Chaser rat with kindness. I hope the rat doesn’t have babies
It comes from the same attitude as that boy in the US who raped an unconscious woman and received a seriously lenient sentence: a sense of entitlement, privilege and that women should just shut up and take it. What said it all for me about that case was the boy’s father who dismissed criticism of the sentence, declaring his son’s assault of the woman only amounted to “20 minutes of action”.
With attitudes like this is it any wonder men think it’s a bit of a hoot to shop around lewd photos of themselves?
DTT
Sxting, including pics, is the new form of whispering sweet nothings. The traffic in words and anatomical images, is far from being male to female, BTW.
It takes two to sxt.
If your turn -on is boils on arses, so be it.
While there is bound to be someone out there who shares this obscure delight, my guess is that you would be in the minority.
Paradise Playmates contains many Liberal values.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CkqGsDqVAAEYwQ3?format=jpg&name=large
Confessions
The US case you cite was rape, no more, no less.
Sending sexually explicit vids between consenting adults happens all the time. It is legal and the participants enjoy it.
I am not sure whether Barrett had anything like consent.
dtt,
My experience, such as it is, is that the desire to display the male member is in inverse proportion to it’s size. You don’t need to advertise when women have eyes to see for themselves, if you get my drift. It’s a much more subtle ploy to ask the woman out on a date and wear tight pants. 🙂
I am a wary of reports of ‘pop star’ treatment when some polies go walk-about. I remember Keating being cheered on by some very enthusiastic school girls just before he got walloped. Meanwhile, great play was made of Howard when nurses in Tassie gave him a big cheer when he said he would provide funds for this or that hospital in Tassie. Or was it, he was going to take over the cost of all hospitals? Whatever, he also not only lost government but his seat.
Sprockets
It appears to be an enterprise which might benefit from the Gonski reforms.
……………………………………………..
I had a good laugh the other night when Tanya was on 730.
As sales started to ask her first question the look Tanya gave her was pure gold. Her eyes narrowed and the look was enough to kill – one of utter contempt – all before the first salvo from sales.
Cat
Yes I think we can agree.
Pring back the cod piece I say. That form of Elizabethan dress displayed the wares.
Tories just aren’t very nice human beings..
Troy Grant @troygrant
“@RobOakeshott1 Getting credibility in politics is hard enough thx to you & @TonyHWindsor 4 everyone’s sake go away you 17 min dribbler”
Liberal candidate Chris Jermyn’s missing millions after social media flop
In its 2012-13 annual report, Mooter announced losses of almost $10 million – leaving it with just $15,000 of cash.
The company said it had substantially completed the development of Shutterbug Millionaire “but a lack of funding prevented the commercial launch from taking place as planned”. It tried to secure capital from the San Francisco-based La Jolla but negotiations broke down.
In September 2013, Mooter wrote to the ASX requesting an end to its trading halt. But the exchange said Mooter did not “satisfy ASX’s requirements for reinstatement of its securities”.
So what went wrong? And where did the rest of the $15 million go?
Jermyn will not say, refusing to respond to Fairfax Media’s repeated requests for comment. Former Mooter company secretary John F. Diddams and the La Jolla investors also failed to respond.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/liberal-candidate-chris-jermyns-missing-millions-after-social-media-flop-20160610-gpg2rl.html#ixzz4BG9BqTJq
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook
One of society’s difficulties ATM, is sxting, including imagery, across the age of consent.
What was perfectly legal one month becomes a crime the next month.
Sxting and image swapping behaviours that were appropriate, enjoyable and socially-approved suddenly become a serious crime – even if pursued with the same partner with whom the behaviour had previously been legal.
This transition by birthday to a different legal status applies equally to young men and young women.
Whatever your personal preferences, the notion that sxting and image and vid swapping is limited to self-obsessed men with small cock anxieties is ludicrous.
Chris Jermyn…..lost a lazy $10 mil of investors money…..no consequences…yep these are the type of people that give the LNP their economic management superiority
Dave
Yep. Saw that interview. Plibers is the ONLY polly to have been interviewed thus far who has managed to project a vague sense of unsettling menace onto Sales.
From the media reports it wouldn’t seem he did seeing as he apologised for doing so. If the two had been consensually sexting then as you say, it’s legal and the people get off on it, so why apologise.
have a look at the oz they have a pic of bill under a sign saying TOP CHICKEN
Heard Malcolm say on the TV that Windsor is coming back. They must be running a pretty poor candidate against him, if the PM thinks they’re a goner.
Confessions
I have not seen his actual words. If he confessed for not getting consent he has implicitly acknowledged committed a cybercrime.
Seems as though the Chris Jermyn Start Up was very innovative and agile with investors’ money.
Daretotread #625 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 7:00 pm
Talk about cod pieces what about the black Russian
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5A55eWbiBI
The tax office might have an interest in the ex-Liberal candidate’s financial affairs, especially if transactions were largely cash. As a presumably small business, it would be interesting to see if the gentleman took advantage of Abbott’s $20K tax write off to purchase any “equipment” for the business.
Perhaps also the Herald-Sun might like to do an expose this weekend.
Labor is struggling to win back Hindmarsh. With or without NXT, it would find it hard to pick up any other seat.
Luckily for Labor, two or three Liberal seats might possibly fall to NXT with then help of Labor preferences. That should help overall.
Boerwar:
In my view sexting is harmless when it is consensual, mutual and not done to embarrass, harass, antagonise or demoralise the other person. Sexting becomes an issue when a man texts lewd images to a woman (even one he may have had a relationship with previously) which aren’t asked for or either wanted or appreciated.
Reading of the NT Minister who has fallen by the wayside reminded me of a reference in a Saki story to “the sort of man in whom women are willing to pardon a generous measure of mental deficiency. “
The paper said he was an upstanding member (of the Church)
The ABC News seemed to make point of him being sworn into office holding the bible
Fyi Troy Grant is the Deputy Premier of NSW. Just another Coalition thug in a suit and tie.
phoenixred @ #566 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 5:29 pm
PR, at some point you too shall be judged.
I am not the person I was at 21. For which I am thankful.
I am less handsome now, but I know a hell of a lot more, and I am, I hope, a more worthwhile human being.
May it be the same for you.
This picture of Shorten today is gold!
https://mobile.twitter.com/ellinghausen/status/741504798474653699/photo/1
While I hope Labor will prevail and win a majority a hung parliament would be better than a Lib victory. Turnbull would resign or be kicked out. If BARMabY Pyne and Briggs go to that would be icing onthe cake.
‘confessions
Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 7:25 pm
Boerwar:
In my view sexting is harmless when it is consensual, mutual and not done to embarrass, harass, antagonise or demoralise the other person. Sexting becomes an issue when a man texts lewd images to a woman (even one he may have had a relationship with previously) which aren’t asked for or either wanted or appreciated.’
Indeed. And vice versa.
Victoria #644 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 7:38 pm
I guess we can call that crowd for Turnbull. smiley
victoria @ #644 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 7:38 pm
Who was it here a day or two back who was claiming that Shorten was losing the Asian vote?
Lots of pessimism here. Labor has had a messy week, but that was because it was getting its budget ducks in a row. Best to draw that poison now. There are still THREE weeks to go in this election. Labor has LOTS of positive policies to announce. The libs have ZERO. They are just running up and down on the spot. Still lots to play for.
vic:
https://www.facebook.com/BillShorten/videos/1016111988425362/